WTS 71 Gh/s Avalon Unit in hand - overnight shipping

[Xian01]

Interested in a unit, but at 250 BTC, that's just madness considering Avalon chips will come onto the market pretty soon and the BKK boards are going to be everywhere.

Recently bought 80GHs worth of Avalon chips and boards at approximately 2/5's the cost of this unit

[1714998233]

1714998233

[1714998233]

1714998233

[FloridaBear]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

[dogie]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today.

No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.

[PuertoLibre]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today.

No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.

Anyone know what a GPU miner makes today? I want to plug in the number and see when they no longer make anything substantial.

[dogie]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today.

No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.

Anyone know what a GPU miner makes today? I want to plug in the number and see when they no longer make anything substantial.

0.32 USD/24h@100MHash/s
At pretty much 1btc=100$

So a 600MH 7950/70 = 0.0192btc per day at 15.6M difficulty.

So at 200M, that'd be 0.0015btc per day. = 15cence a day.

200W per card = 4.8Kwh which at 0.15cence/kwh = $0.72

tldr:
7970 revenue @ 200M = 0.0015btc = 15cence a day.
Power costs a day = 72cence a day
=fucked.

Even at today's difficulty it would take a fresh $350 7970 =182 days at fixed difficulty

[ranlo]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today.

No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.

Anyone know what a GPU miner makes today? I want to plug in the number and see when they no longer make anything substantial.

0.32 USD/24h@100MHash/s
At pretty much 1btc=100$

So a 600MH 7950/70 = 0.0192btc per day at 15.6M difficulty.

So at 200M, that'd be 0.0015btc per day. = 15cence a day.

200W per card = 4.8Kwh which at 0.15cence/kwh = $0.72

tldr:
7970 revenue @ 200M = 0.0015btc = 15cence a day.
Power costs a day = 72cence a day
=fucked.

Even at today's difficulty it would take a fresh $350 7970 =182 days at fixed difficulty

This all also assumes you bought it today. If you bought it late last year, you've made a pretty nice profit already and it's still under warranty, :p.

[grue]

This all also assumes you bought it today. If you bought it late last year, you've made a pretty nice profit already and it's still under warranty, :p.

are you dense? we're talking about future earnings, not past earnings. if you're going to "speculate" on past performance, you might as well argue that you should buy 100 BTC right now because it will grow 100x.

grue - you are thinking in fiat not BTC which isn't how it works. All I am stating is that if you had 250 BTC today and holding it for a number of years it makes much more sense to spend that on mining equipment.

And what's the logic behind that? In what situation would spending 250 BTC on a 71 GH ASIC be more profitable than holding? So far the only way is for difficulty to be unrealistically low. If you think otherwise, give me numbers (price + difficulty) that would show buying ASIC to be more profitable than holding.

Anyway this is a sales thread or was lol until it turned into some kind of name calling / hate thread. Anyway feel free to PM me or email me on any other questions or posts. I don't want to reply to each and every one since its hard to not get trolled and not a productive use of time. I think I did a good job above on stating my thoughts.

>posts item at ridiculous price
>fails miserably to justify the price
>"omg u guise are just trolls im not going to argue with u"
YEAH, OK BUDDY.

[FloridaBear]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today.

No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.

Anyone know what a GPU miner makes today? I want to plug in the number and see when they no longer make anything substantial.

The "when" is when difficulty is over ~50M, which will happen roughly in September IMO, when they make less than the cost of power consumption.

(Following table is for a card making 650MH@250W, $0.11/KWh, BTC=$100. Showing 20% jumps and estimated dates)

Code:

Date		Difficulty   $/day after power
06/15/13	15600000	$1.44
06/17/13	18720000	$1.09
07/01/13	22464000	$0.80
07/15/13	26956800	$0.55
07/29/13	32348160	$0.35
08/12/13	38817792	$0.18
08/26/13	46581350	$0.04

[ranlo]

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today.

No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.

Anyone know what a GPU miner makes today? I want to plug in the number and see when they no longer make anything substantial.

The "when" is when difficulty is over ~50M, which will happen roughly in September IMO, when they make less than the cost of power consumption.

(Following table is for a card making 650MH@250W, $0.11/KWh, BTC=$100. Showing 20% jumps and estimated dates)

Code:

Date		Difficulty   $/day after power
06/15/13	15600000	$1.44
06/17/13	18720000	$1.09
07/01/13	22464000	$0.80
07/15/13	26956800	$0.55
07/29/13	32348160	$0.35
08/12/13	38817792	$0.18
08/26/13	46581350	$0.04

*cringes* please don't post things like this... it depresses me, lol.

[ninjaboon]

I think you will change your mind...(Does a Jedi mind trick with facts)



Title: ASIC's are WAY overpriced!

nice excel formula.

[polrpaul]

250 BTC is quite steep for what you're offering in today's landscape.

[yantis]

I agree on the GPU stuff above. You are better off just shutting down your GPU miners or switching them to an scrypt based coin (though I am not sure even how profitable those are right now).

[sidhujag]

this guy wont get over $3000 for any miner thats the fair market rate making 1btc @ $100 for 30 days.

Sorry but this is a buyers market now they dictate the price. The early adopters already sold theirs om ebay the smart ones atleast. The op will have to keep using or sell at a loss most likely taking a few years to make his money back and then throwing it away for pennies with a few years lost and extra stress.

Thats the sad truth.

I already was saying when bfl failed to deliver the first time that  ebay will be offering asics at 10th of original retail price. Thats the time to buy not a penny more.

[groomsxxx]

He will def get over 3 grand..theres also no way he is going to sell it that low either.

[rudrigorc2]

is this really in USA? that is a  rack easily found in China, here at home I have one of that

they are not in recommended position which is horizontal, making the alluminium weaker every day if you intend to sell, think about it arriving damaged.

you got them last week why not run then?

look how many units with one guy - funny how avalon fights descentralization with centralization

[grue]

is this really in USA? that is a  rack easily found in China, here at home I have one of that

no, those are generic aluminum industrial racks.

[rudrigorc2]

is this really in USA? that is a  rack easily found in China, here at home I have one of that

no, those are generic aluminum industrial racks.

no what 

[PuertoLibre]

I already was saying when bfl failed to deliver the first time that  ebay will be offering asics at 10th of original retail price. Thats the time to buy not a penny more.

Those who hold longest will probably get it the cheapest. But will it be worth it by then? <shrug>

[ranlo]

I already was saying when bfl failed to deliver the first time that  ebay will be offering asics at 10th of original retail price. Thats the time to buy not a penny more.

Those who hold longest will probably get it the cheapest. But will it be worth it by then? <shrug>

This is hard to say because what people seem to fail to realize is that the more affordable they get, the more people will buy. Ex:

If they run $100 for 1 TH/s, I may buy 10

People will say "that's too expensive, wait until they are $10 per TH!"

Now they are $10 for 1 TH/s, so I buy 100

In essence, I am still getting the same amount of relative hashrate. It doesn't matter if I buy it now for a higher cost or later for a lower one. Either way, the more affordable they are the more EVERYONE is going to buy, and the more you have to buy to keep competitive.

[sidhujag]

I already was saying when bfl failed to deliver the first time that  ebay will be offering asics at 10th of original retail price. Thats the time to buy not a penny more.

Those who hold longest will probably get it the cheapest. But will it be worth it by then? <shrug>

This is hard to say because what people seem to fail to realize is that the more affordable they get, the more people will buy. Ex:

If they run $100 for 1 TH/s, I may buy 10

People will say "that's too expensive, wait until they are $10 per TH!"

Now they are $10 for 1 TH/s, so I buy 100

In essence, I am still getting the same amount of relative hashrate. It doesn't matter if I buy it now for a higher cost or later for a lower one. Either way, the more affordable they are the more EVERYONE is going to buy, and the more you have to buy to keep competitive.

What if theres a crash and btc is at $10 ppl want out of the game. Fear can bring in a deal.