Avalon batch #3 approaching "NO ROI" point

[Amph]

avalon is a legal scam, stop feeding them

[SGExodus]

You have nothing to worry if you pay less than 2BTC/GHs (in the case of batch 3 Avalon).

Even with the difficulty rising, you should still have no problem making at least 120BTC in the life span of the machine.  

I don't know what other investment can give you that kind of ROI these days.

Mmm... What kind of delay are you considering? If it arrives with difficulty above 35 million it won't break even. That difficulty will arrive in a few weeks.

I made a mistake earlier as my spreadsheet was still using the 15 million difficulty numbers.  

Plugging the 19 million difficulty, and assume a 8% per week compounded network difficulty growth for next 2 years.  A 50GH/h machine, will make 112 BTC in 52 weeks (and 113 BTC in 104 weeks) if you receive the machine today and start the mining. With this model, if you don't receive the machine in the next 5 weeks, you will miss the break even point.  If we change that to 10% compounded growth rate, the 104 weeks earning will only be at 90 bTC,  and you must get the machine in next 3 weeks to break even.

However,  I also had a model that is more optimistic, which assume the network difficulty will taper down in 20 weeks, and will only grow at 3% compounded per week after that.  In the optimistic model,  you can suffer up to 8 weeks delay in the shipment, and are still be able to break even, and still had a life time earning of close to 105 BTC.

BFL machines are cheaper, and hence can suffer a few more "2 weeks delay".

[rograz]

and assume a 8% per week compounded network difficulty growth for next 2 years.

Good luck with that exponential growth of yours ;P We might see 6 months of 8% but once the market is saturated or unless BTC price increases massively growth will slow down a lot once current backlogs have been delivered.

[Rannasha]

and assume a 8% per week compounded network difficulty growth for next 2 years.

Good luck with that exponential growth of yours ;P We might see 6 months of 8% but once the market is saturated or unless BTC price increases massively growth will slow down a lot once current backlogs have been delivered.

Even just 6 months of 8% exponential growth is enough to triple the difficulty and therefore reduce any profits by 66% from their current level.

Even if the difficulty growth completely flattens out to zero (it won't) after this growth, it still doesn't make most mining investments that profitable.

[Rampion]

I will cross-post something I wrote in another thread and I think is relevant to the current discussion:

is KNC miner a scam
I mean 350g/h sounds rediculous to me for their jupiter mining device, infact why would they even bother silling them, they would make more money mining,

Not really. This is true for a short time, when there is a disruptive change in technology, as it just happened with the first ASIC - those machines create such an unbalance in the network dynamics, that the profit in running them is HUGE. Thus, you either sell them at a crazy price, or you just mine yourself.

If you were around before ASICs, you will know that mining has always been only marginally profitable. It's a very competitive business, where the profit basically lies in having free electricity and free storage, if your operational costs are above average you mine at a loss - because the market self-regulates itself.

Most of the time selling spades is more profitable than digging for gold, with some notable exceptions, as we had since February for the few folks that had the ASICs. As soon as the ASICs spread, network difficulty will balance, and everybody will be fighting for pennies again, as we did with GPUs and FPGAs.

If you have the luck to be in the front line during the change to a disruptive technology (FPGAs -> ASIC), of course it's more profitable to mine yourself. But once the market settles and difficulty adjusts to this new technology, long-term is much more profitable to sell the hardware and let the miners fight for their pennies.

The fact is that the (short) window in which mining with ASICs meant huge profit is finishing.

[KS]

The fact is that the (short) window in which mining with ASICs meant huge profit is finishing.

+1

People should consider this exactly like a business, not a fire and forget operation. If they do, they'll get burned.

[Humax]

I am so glad I've missed the batch 3# order! 

Batch#4 coming soon. Who's foolish enough to go for batch #4?

"Avalon" almost tripled hash rate this week at BTCGuild. Are those our unshipped batch#2 and batch#3 units?

[jspielberg]

If Avalon Batch3 is approaching "NO ROI" you would think folks would opt for the refund that Yifu is offering.
So far as I know, NO ONE has taken him up on this offer (maybe B1-er anti76... but it doesn't look like it).

My guess is that if we really were approaching no roi, people would be heading for the exits with Batch3 and that doesn't seem to be the case.
At this point, I believe most folks will get their BTC investment back over the course of the next year.... and precious little after that.

[Rampion]

If Avalon Batch3 is approaching "NO ROI" you would think folks would opt for the refund that Yifu is offering.
So far as I know, NO ONE has taken him up on this offer (maybe B1-er anti76... but it doesn't look like it).

My guess is that if we really were approaching no roi, people would be heading for the exits with Batch3 and that doesn't seem to be the case.
At this point, I believe most folks will get their BTC investment back over the course of the next year.... and precious little after that.

We are really approaching "NO ROI", that's math. Each week "NO ROI" is closer. But ATM ROI is still possible. People is just hoping there won't be any further delays.

[grue]

If Avalon Batch3 is approaching "NO ROI" you would think folks would opt for the refund that Yifu is offering.
So far as I know, NO ONE has taken him up on this offer (maybe B1-er anti76... but it doesn't look like it).

Please tell me more about the refund offer.

[SolarSilver]

"Avalon" almost tripled hash rate this week at BTCGuild. Are those our unshipped batch#2 and batch#3 units?

Team Avalon on BTC Guild is just 3 Batch #1 units + 6 Batch #2 units + a another Batch #1 + some curious people that don't even own an avalon as they pull 30 GH/s or less

It has nothing to do with the testing Avalon is doing

[jspielberg]

Please tell me more about the refund offer.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236348.msg2515773#msg2515773

[jspielberg]

Some Batch3 bad news...
Looks like chips are going to ship alongside Batch3.

From Yifu:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=240189.msg2562419#msg2562419

I guess the good news is that you can still get a refund if desired.

[Rampion]

Some Batch3 bad news...
Looks like chips are going to ship alongside Batch3.

From Yifu:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=240189.msg2562419#msg2562419

I guess the good news is that you can still get a refund if desired.

I bet that chips will be hashing in the wild before batch #3 is completed.

Sad, we paid the highest price for batch 3 and now the only option we have is to ask for a refund. I guess they will see many refund requests in the following weeks... And I guess they will just keep the units.

[Lohoris]

If Avalon Batch3 is approaching "NO ROI" you would think folks would opt for the refund that Yifu is offering.
So far as I know, NO ONE has taken him up on this offer (maybe B1-er anti76... but it doesn't look like it).

People are often delusional or simply don't do the maths.

[grue]

ITT: people who don't realize Avalon batch 3 has guaranteed ROI thanks to refund policy. You don't think they're going to make ROI? Go for a refund and get instant break-even.

If Avalon Batch3 is approaching "NO ROI" you would think folks would opt for the refund that Yifu is offering.
So far as I know, NO ONE has taken him up on this offer (maybe B1-er anti76... but it doesn't look like it).

People are often delusional or simply don't do the maths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_pleading

[Rampion]

ITT: people who don't realize Avalon batch 3 has guaranteed ROI thanks to refund policy.

If Avalon Batch3 is approaching "NO ROI" you would think folks would opt for the refund that Yifu is offering.
So far as I know, NO ONE has taken him up on this offer (maybe B1-er anti76... but it doesn't look like it).

People are often delusional or simply don't do the maths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_pleading

No. It has guaranteed break even. ROI or "return on investment" actually means that the investors get some profit or benefit from the investment.

I see that 99% of the folks in here use the term incorrectly, as it was a synonym for break-even, which is incorrect. FYI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_investment

[cedivad]

Anyway is the refund USD or btc fixed?

[Rampion]

Anyway is the refund USD or btc fixed?

Batch #3? BTC, there was never a price in USD for batch #3.

[grue]

Anyway is the refund USD or btc fixed?

fixed in BTC