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Author Topic: My Most Insane Prediction of Bitcoin & Ethereum  (Read 679 times)
Dorkie
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November 06, 2017, 10:52:32 AM
 #1

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.


Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".
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November 06, 2017, 11:01:38 AM
 #2

Hehe, there's nothing wrong to make our own prediction and assumption. Anything is possible in future, especially in this crazy world...
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November 06, 2017, 11:03:09 AM
 #3

Nothing insane about it, I saw this one thousand of times in the altboard.

Quote
This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.

2,3 are the same if 2 happens there is no doubt 3 will happen also.
4. Of course if something is not going up it has two choices, and one is down.
5. You're repeating number 4 here.
6. I really doubt it. Those who bought at 1-100 range will still make millions even at 1000, doubt they will panic and sell at 10k. Most of them didn't while bitcoin lost 75% of it's value why should they panic now.
7. Now this is one wild prediction.
8. No comment....

As for your "insane" call, it can be called "ethereum shill wet dreams". Far more accurate title.


 


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November 06, 2017, 03:17:45 PM
 #4

this board is not called "guessing board" for a reason!

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.
that is where you are wrong. the "assumption and expectation" is what drives the market most of the times. when enough people expect price to fall they sell, and when enough people expect the price to rise they buy.
their buy and sells leads to rise and falls.

7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
yeah. very logical.
millions of investors will suddenly decide "lets stop investing in bitcoin" and then a couple of hundreds of thousands of merchants will say "yeah lets stop accepting bitcoin" and everyone just dumps it for no reason at all.

8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.
why?
what does ETH do better than bitcoin?
the fees are high.
the scaling issue of ETH is horrible
it can not handle large number of transactions which has been proven multiple times when the network failed
it has lots of bugs and exploits like DAO waiting to happen again
it is not even a currency to want to compete with bitcoin

not to mention the huge supply and no cap!

You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".
as i said this is not a "guessing board" and you are not predicting anything, you are clearly bag holding ethereum and think we can't see that Wink

--looking for signature--
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November 06, 2017, 03:26:49 PM
 #5

If you see the pattern, when bitcoin goes down, ETH goes down with it
Although I like eth as a technical solution, I don't think the team has any grasp of the economic side, or they even seem to care.
I start to suspect all the big names they had in the sponsor list for devcon and in their group are just there to learn about cryptos and grab their experience to propose alternatives in the future. I've sold my eths for now, unless I see some decent movement there (and I suspect I wont) I'll stay on btc.
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November 06, 2017, 04:08:26 PM
 #6

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.


Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".
This is a good prediction, if that possibly happens, for sure a lot of us will make another panic selling. Most people holding bitcoin right now and if that is possible that bitcoin will fall down from the price when the year 2013 then maybe there are still investors will buy bitcoin because they will think that bitcoin will still increase and at the same time they will also invest in Ethereum so whatever happens they still have another wallet that can possibly increase in the future and if both Ethereum and bitcoin increase up to year 2019 and you are still holding, for sure you can gain huge profit.
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November 06, 2017, 04:53:27 PM
 #7

Bravo for you for thinking outside the box on this one but I dont really see it happening. Maybe it is my rose colored glasses but it would be hard to believe everybody who got into cryptos earlier on is cashed out fully because

they stand to gain way too much if bitcoin explodes harder. I will take precautions going into next year myself but that isnt because I think bitcoin will cease to exist in less than 5 years.

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November 06, 2017, 04:57:44 PM
 #8

the fees are high.
the scaling issue of ETH is horrible
it can not handle large number of transactions which has been proven multiple times when the network failed
it has lots of bugs and exploits like DAO waiting to happen again
it is not even a currency to want to compete with bitcoin

not to mention the huge supply and no cap!


You forget about the node which is impossible to synch.
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November 06, 2017, 05:25:58 PM
 #9

The nice thing with speculation threads is no one can tell you you are right or wrong, I suspect you will be wrong but if in a years time you are right I will come back here and congratulate you myself, one thing I can see happening is ethereum surpassing bitcoin as no 1 market cap.

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November 06, 2017, 05:34:30 PM
 #10

why do you think people just waiting for the price reached level Bitcoin $ 10,000 and sell them?
Why do you think Bitcoin dropped and Eth throne?
If can outperform Bitcoin eth did that long ago. Bitcoin may be will go down but synonymous altcoin also go down

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November 06, 2017, 05:41:32 PM
 #11

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.

This makes no sense.

Quote
Price goes to USD10.000
Ok this is definitely on the cards I think. Indeed.

Quote
Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
The price surely cannot stay the same if MANY think USD100,000 is on the cards and convert their assets into Bitcoin.

Or are you suggesting that there are going to be handful of dumbasses, the rest of the market completely cashes out (including all Bitcoin miners) and there is no such thing as FOMO from next year onwards.

Dreamland....
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November 06, 2017, 06:43:06 PM
 #12

why do you think people just waiting for the price reached level Bitcoin $ 10,000 and sell them?
Why do you think Bitcoin dropped and Eth throne?
If can outperform Bitcoin eth did that long ago. Bitcoin may be will go down but synonymous altcoin also go down
Why $ 10,000? Why not sell when bitcoin will be worth $ 20,000? I think it all depends on the affluence of users. If you have the opportunity to meet their needs Fiat you will store your bitcoins until the price will not grow to the maximum. If you do not have enough money to live on then you are going to sell bitcoins at any price.
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November 06, 2017, 06:50:03 PM
 #13

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.


Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".

I really didn't find this reasonable. There is no logic behind your argument. There is no reason for bitcoin to start decreasing like crazy as in the old days, in 2013. The trend of bitcoin already changed hard.

But ethereum can still surpass bitcoin within 5 years, I believe.
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November 06, 2017, 08:31:16 PM
 #14

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.


Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".


So your entire "insane prediction" is based on another Mt.Gox-type event happening. The type of event that literally scared everyone out of holding bitcoin, that's the only way Bitcoin isn't going to continue skyrocketing.
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November 06, 2017, 08:52:37 PM
 #15

You are probably right, i always knew that bitcoin was never going to be over ten thousand dollars because it is pretty impossible, i read a lot of post of optimist people saying that bitcoin was going to be more than 20-30-50 thousand dollars by the end of this and the next year, and it is insane, if you think about, it is impossible because that is a very huge amount of money.
But bitcoin will always be the #1 on the crypto list, there is no way that it could fall from there.

Hello
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November 06, 2017, 09:01:04 PM
 #16

Indeed: the gradual decline of Bitcoin prices after the ATH of november 2013 was caused by the combination of the Mt.Gox hack and Bitcoin still being in its early and fragile years. We've now got a plethora of exchanges around. Although the OP doesn't give a reason why BTC could be overtaken by alts in the (near) future, it is certainly a possible scenario; it was close to happening in last June when BTC was about to crumble under the onslaught of the alts.
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November 06, 2017, 09:16:35 PM
 #17

I agree with almost everything that you wrote on this post, you are perfect man, you are probably the most honest person that i have ever seen on this forum.. A lot of people are spreading fake news about bitcoin, X bussiness, Amazon accepting bitcoins, X country accepting bitcoin.. and the list is so long, they all want to rise bitcoin at all costs, and this is why bitcoin has been very bullish lately.
But yes, of course that we all want to see it going bullish, but that is not the way, and 10$k, it is a fair rate for me.

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iqlimasyadiqa
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November 06, 2017, 11:03:31 PM
 #18

I agree with almost everything that you wrote on this post, you are perfect man, you are probably the most honest person that i have ever seen on this forum.. A lot of people are spreading fake news about bitcoin, X bussiness, Amazon accepting bitcoins, X country accepting bitcoin.. and the list is so long, they all want to rise bitcoin at all costs, and this is why bitcoin has been very bullish lately.
But yes, of course that we all want to see it going bullish, but that is not the way, and 10$k, it is a fair rate for me.

You're just the same. We can not be quite sure of Bitcoin's future price movement forecast. All this is merely a speculation that could not have happened. So you should be very concerned that Bitcoin is a thing that can not be predicted exactly. most people can only see if the price of Bitcoin will increase or decrease. Everyone in the world today knows only that Bitcoin is a very profitable currency and investment.

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November 06, 2017, 11:17:52 PM
 #19

You are probably right, i always knew that bitcoin was never going to be over ten thousand dollars because it is pretty impossible, i read a lot of post of optimist people saying that bitcoin was going to be more than 20-30-50 thousand dollars by the end of this and the next year, and it is insane, if you think about, it is impossible because that is a very huge amount of money.
But bitcoin will always be the #1 on the crypto list, there is no way that it could fall from there.


Looking to move my bitcoin to gold at $10000 just to be safe, but I really think $20000 still reasonable and $25000 should be achievable by end of 2018, it is capital flight that can drive the market to this insane price

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May 29, 2018, 02:23:26 AM
 #20

Bump for review.
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