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Author Topic: Potential mining ban in China, effects on market?  (Read 829 times)
Schirer
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November 14, 2017, 08:39:23 PM
 #1

Recently I have seen several news articles that China may crackdown on miners.
Like this one https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/china-bitcoin-ban-to-extend-to-low-cost-mining-local-report/

What are the potential consequence on BTC market if this happens?

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Once a transaction has 6 confirmations, it is extremely unlikely that an attacker without at least 50% of the network's computation power would be able to reverse it.
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November 14, 2017, 08:42:51 PM
 #2

It's already been refuted.

If it did happen hypothetically the Bitcoin market could go either way.

It's clear that Chinese miners are nothing but a tumour feeding off BTC and slowly murdering it so perhaps it would be seen as a positive development. However we also need them for functionality, though there are many miners elsewhere.

If it did happen my vote goes to short term panic, long term positive. They need to go.

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November 14, 2017, 08:44:19 PM
 #3

It's already been refuted.

If it did happen hypothetically the Bitcoin market could go either way.

It's clear that Chinese miners are nothing but a tumour feeding off BTC and slowly murdering it so perhaps it would be seen as a positive development. However we also need them for functionality, though there are many miners elsewhere.

If it did happen my vote goes to short term panic, long term positive. They need to go.

Agreed. Short term big negative, long term positive.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

But if this is true, BTC can easily lose 20-30% at first.

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November 14, 2017, 08:45:14 PM
 #4

If it happens, it will be a very big problem. Now there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions that caused the fee to be very high. Now consider that people in China are banned from mining. What will happen if we lose them?

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November 14, 2017, 08:47:02 PM
 #5

It's already been refuted.

If it did happen hypothetically the Bitcoin market could go either way.

It's clear that Chinese miners are nothing but a tumour feeding off BTC and slowly murdering it so perhaps it would be seen as a positive development. However we also need them for functionality, though there are many miners elsewhere.

If it did happen my vote goes to short term panic, long term positive. They need to go.

Agreed. Short term big negative, long term positive.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

But if this is true, BTC can easily lose 20-30% at first.

BTC would lose its value because of market panic?

And I think it is possible that in long term it would mean that transaction fee would go up even more. Since the mining power would shift to more wealthier countries which would need more money to make their mining operations fee sable.

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November 14, 2017, 08:53:57 PM
 #6

Recently I have seen several news articles that China may crackdown on miners.
Like this one https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/china-bitcoin-ban-to-extend-to-low-cost-mining-local-report/

What are the potential consequence on BTC market if this happens?

Transactions gonna be unconfirmed for too long, Fees gonna explode for a while, Bitcoin price gonna rise before things return to pre-chinese ban slowly, except for price maybe
That's my analysis  Smiley

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November 14, 2017, 08:57:23 PM
 #7

Obviously that it can not happen! omg, this could just be a mess if this happen, but it has been rejected by the entire government and from a lot of people.
There is no way to see it happening because bitcoin could be dead because of this, the whole mining hashrate is coming from china, and we all know that. Transactions will take more than hours to get confirmed, and more than now.
I saw before that China was more than 35% of bitcoin total miners, and this could be true, because all the fud and mess with bitcoins comes from there.

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November 14, 2017, 08:57:48 PM
 #8

If it happens, it will be a very big problem. Now there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions that caused the fee to be very high. Now consider that people in China are banned from mining. What will happen if we lose them?

Chinese mining makes up a huge proportion but it's not the be all and end all. You have operations like Bitfury that have never been anywhere near China.

Bitcoin might lose 50-60% of hash rate which is a pain but far from fatal.

But that's ignoring the obvious one which is - the Chinese miners would stick all their gear in a truck and become Russian or Thai miners instead.

Plenty probably won't make the move, but you can bet Bitmain certainly will which might make those tossers even more powerful than they are now.

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November 14, 2017, 09:00:06 PM
 #9

Recently I have seen several news articles that China may crackdown on miners.
Like this one https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/china-bitcoin-ban-to-extend-to-low-cost-mining-local-report/

What are the potential consequence on BTC market if this happens?

Transactions gonna be unconfirmed for too long, Fees gonna explode for a while, Bitcoin price gonna rise before things return to pre-chinese ban slowly, except for price maybe
That's my analysis  Smiley

Why do you think that price would explode? Because shortage of supply ?

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November 14, 2017, 09:03:03 PM
 #10

well we seem to have lost 30% of the hashing power somewhere, its simply not mining anything, which is weird cos thats a lot of money being lost, who knows why that it is. 
jnano
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November 14, 2017, 09:03:52 PM
 #11

It's clear that Chinese miners are nothing but a tumour feeding off BTC and slowly murdering it

What's wrong specifically with them? Aren't they miners like all other miners, whichever country they happen to be from?
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November 14, 2017, 09:08:42 PM
 #12

What's wrong specifically with them? Aren't they miners like all other miners, whichever country they happen to be from?

Centralisation. China has the cheapest power, cheapest labour, cheapest property and most hardware production and design facilities.

If there was another country with that then we'd be moaning about that country. It makes Bitcoin vulnerable to influence by one country's laws, culture and companies. It's the way of the world so it's not going away any time soon.

Bitcoin mining was intended to be spread globally to protect its properties.

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November 14, 2017, 09:13:00 PM
 #13

This is just a news that has being in circulation but the power providers rejected this news and hence there is no need for speculation about it now.In a hypothetical way if there is a ban in mining from China there will a sharp decline in the hash rate as majority of the hash power comes out of China and even now the unconfirmed transaction are really high and it will cause network issues .


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November 14, 2017, 09:13:51 PM
 #14

This is still very much a rumour at the moment, if it does happen I think there will be a drop in price short term but will be a positive long term as will keep things decentralised as it should be
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November 14, 2017, 09:18:17 PM
 #15

As always, the btc`s rate is slightly ahead of the news in mass sources, so you can see that the fall has already happened and it is very likely that the reason for this was the news from China
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November 14, 2017, 09:25:04 PM
 #16

Centralisation.
Quote
Bitcoin mining was intended to be spread globally to protect its properties.

So it's not that they're a "tumor", just a potential unintentional problem because of how PoW currently works.

But isn't electricity cheaper in Canada? For example, page 7 of this document says the average industrial rate in Montreal is 0.04 US$.

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November 14, 2017, 09:33:09 PM
 #17

So it's not that they're a "tumor", just a potential unintentional problem because of how PoW currently works.

But isn't electricity cheaper in Canada? For example, page 7 of this document says the average industrial rate in Montreal is 0.04 US$.

Yup. I assume miners elsewhere would behave just the same.

If Canada was the cheapest miners would be all over it. As far as I know I've never heard of any significant miners in Canada.

They say there are places in China where electricity is literally free. They've built hydro plants with no population centres to use them so all that power is pouring out doing nothing. Miners built mining farms right next to them.

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November 14, 2017, 09:36:55 PM
 #18

It's already been refuted.

If it did happen hypothetically the Bitcoin market could go either way.

It's clear that Chinese miners are nothing but a tumour feeding off BTC and slowly murdering it so perhaps it would be seen as a positive development. However we also need them for functionality, though there are many miners elsewhere.

If it did happen my vote goes to short term panic, long term positive. They need to go.
I do not agree with your partiall comments about Chinese miners.Though some of them have made unofficial cartel and causing damage to btc for their own gains but overall it is for betterment of btc if we habe miners dispersed globally

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November 14, 2017, 09:37:23 PM
 #19

If it happens, it will be a very big problem. Now there are a lot of unconfirmed transactions that caused the fee to be very high. Now consider that people in China are banned from mining. What will happen if we lose them?

Chinese mining makes up a huge proportion but it's not the be all and end all. You have operations like Bitfury that have never been anywhere near China.

Bitcoin might lose 50-60% of hash rate which is a pain but far from fatal.

But that's ignoring the obvious one which is - the Chinese miners would stick all their gear in a truck and become Russian or Thai miners instead.

Plenty probably won't make the move, but you can bet Bitmain certainly will which might make those tossers even more powerful than they are now.
There were rumours about Russia, they were about to reopen an old nuclear plant to feed the newcomer crypto miners with cheap energy in north Russia, where the summer is also below 0 Celsius, so there's no need to install expensive airco machines for the mining gear, it's enough to have the windows open 24/7 Smiley

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November 14, 2017, 09:43:27 PM
 #20

I read where Bitmain has an agreement for a cheaper price anyway. I think that people will see that they can get in on the mining in other countries relatively soon because of cheaper electricity and they'll fill any voids relatively soon. Hopefully, anyway.
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