[Archived] Profit tracking.

[thenerdyone314]

A lot of people only compare based on one factor, eg they look for the highest house edge, or the highest total wagers, but ignore other things that have an impact on your profits.
One number I feel is very important but doesn't get looked at as much is the rollovers (bankroll to wager ratio), which is eg why PPC has a way higher profit than BTC, even though having little traffic.
So my advice would be to take a look at all numbers when comparing investments, not just a single aspect of them.

To make sure I'm understanding the rollover correctly, if you say you have a 50% rollover, that means that if the bankroll is 100 coin then 50 coin were wagered that month?

[Lutpin]

To make sure I'm understanding the rollover correctly, if you say you have a 50% rollover, that means that if the bankroll is 100 coin then 50 coin were wagered that month?

That's correct, as explained in the original post, rollover is a simple comparison between all combined wagers in a month and the current bankroll.

Explanations:

Rollover: The rollover is calculated based on total wagers and bankroll size, it ignores different house edges and is shown in percent.

[Lutpin]

I've written down the numbers and stats for last month, however the update to the thread will be a bit delayed
due to a hardware error and me not keeping an external backup of the exel file I use to do the table/charts.

I'll go buy a screwdriver tomorrow and get an update out by the end of the week month.


ETC has been added and will be tracked from this month going forward.
With ETC coming into the chart, I'll also take a second look at how to integrate BCH and might be adjusting the GRC/GAS line.

[Muttley]

Think it changed some time ago: Minimum investment is: 25.00000000 STRAT  (init. post says 5 STRAT)   

[Timetwister]

If I understand correctly, the posted stats in the first message refer to a 7 months investment period, right?

Does that take into account the 30% comission that the casino takes on investors profit?

Thanks.

[Lutpin]

Think it changed some time ago: Minimum investment is: 25.00000000 STRAT  (init. post says 5 STRAT)

Yes, I forgot to update it, thanks for the headsup. Done now.

If I understand correctly, the posted stats in the first message refer to a 7 months investment period, right?

The chart in the first post currently covers returns for the months December to June (so 7 months).
The table in the first post includes stats for the total period (those 7 months), as well as detailed stats for just the last month (June).

An update for the numbers for July is upcoming in the next days, it was (/is) delayed by a few problems I've had to face over here.

Does that take into account the 30% comission that the casino takes on investors profit?

The numbers I provide are directly taken from my own investments as a player/user of the site.
As such, they are (almost) 100% identical with the returns other investors get, and thus verifiable by everyone who runs an investment themselves,
should someone see a discepancy between the stats I report and their own numbers, I hope they inform me about my mistake so I can correct it.

With that being said, yes the 70% factor (not a direct commission, as the house takes 30% of investors profit, but also carries 30% of the loses, should there be any) is included in my tracking.
Numbers reported here are directly representative of my own and other investors profit.

[Timetwister]

Thanks Lutpin. Please keep updating this thread, it’s very useful.

[Lutpin]

It's been a delay of nearly a month, but I managed to reconstruct the data I have used in previous tracking and everything should be the same from now on.
The chart and table in the OP have been updated with the numbers for July, another update with numbers for August will follow in the next days.

Here are the numbers for July (Month #8):

BTC investment: 0.232% increase.
ETH investment: 5.850% increase.
LTC investment: 1.143% increase.
XMR investment: 0.013% decrease.
STRAT investment: 1.664% increase.
DOGE investment: 2.414% increase.
DASH investment: 0.182% decrease.
PPC investment: 1.185% decrease.
GAS investment: 0.015% increase.
BCH investment: 0.285% increase.

Average return assuming same investment in all coins: 1.022% increase.

The average rollover has once again improved a little, and in July was almost exactly the average bankroll size (100% rollover).
The average investment increase is at 1%, which is a bit more than expected based on rollover, and a decent result (especially seeing how the averag returns are steady at or above 1%).
Clear story of July (and probably of August as well) is ETH and the big rollover there, together with the huge increase in investments (5,85%) which helps offset some of the smaller decreases eg on DAS and XMR.
I didn't run the numbers, but if I were to do a weighted average, the number would have an even bigger impact, since ETHs bankroll is the biggest and makes up for almost 50% of the total combined bankroll.

Once again, sorry for the delay. I hope I can provide all further tracking on time. Thanks for sticking with us

[Timetwister]

It would be great if you added also the expected return in the investment period, to have a better idea of what can be expected in the future.

For example, Dogecoin has had the biggest returns, but it seems that's because it's running way over EV: https://dicesites.com/crypto-games/doge

[Lutpin]

It would be great if you added also the expected return in the investment period, to have a better idea of what can be expected in the future.
For example, Dogecoin has had the biggest returns, but it seems that's because it's running way over EV: https://dicesites.com/crypto-games/doge

Ok, there's a few things to unpack here.

I've gone with bankroll rollover numbers because they are easy to calculate (combined monthly wagers / bankroll on the 1st * 100), and give you a fair idea of how active a coin is being played,
as well as what to expect in terms of profit. For a simplified overview, imho, this stat is both quick to retrieve and good for comparison.
 
To calculate actual EV numbers however, collecting only a combined wager stat is not enough.
As the EV calculates based on what players are expected to lose (together with the 70% factor,...) and this is based on the house edge of the games they play, I'd need to collect dedicated stats for all games.
This would bring the wager numbers I'm tracking from 1 per coin to 6 per coin (so roughly 50 additional stats to be tracked and calculated).


Now why does DOGE show numbers way over EV (currently 160%) on dicesites? From my previous answer, you can probably already guess the reason.
Similar to how I do it, dicesites only collects the combined total wagers from CryptoGames (there is no API for wagers per game yet, afaik).
The way they calculate EV is based on that combined total stat and the house edge on dice (given their name, that makes sense), 0.8%.
What's being ignored there is that other games have higher house edges, most of them in the 1%-2% area, roulette even at 2.7%.

If the EV was calculated based on every game with the correct house edge for that game, the number would come down and be near the 100%, where it is expected to be.

This is nothing exclusive to DOGE, as most other coins show similar numbers:
STRAT at 200%, PPC at 180%, XMR at 170%, DASH at 200%, LTC at 190%, ETH at 150% and BTC at 200%

If you take ETH for example, out of 140k ETH wagered last month, only 56k are on dice, and over 85k are on roulette.
Given the higher house edge on roulette, higher profit for this month is not an anomaly, but something you would expect.

[Timetwister]

Now why does DOGE show numbers way over EV (currently 160%) on dicesites? From my previous answer, you can probably already guess the reason.
Similar to how I do it, dicesites only collects the combined total wagers from CryptoGames (there is no API for wagers per game yet, afaik).
The way they calculate EV is based on that combined total stat and the house edge on dice (given their name, that makes sense), 0.8%.
What's being ignored there is that other games have higher house edges, most of them in the 1%-2% area, roulette even at 2.7%.

If the EV was calculated based on every game with the correct house edge for that game, the number would come down and be near the 100%, where it is expected to be.

This is nothing exclusive to DOGE, as most other coins show similar numbers:
STRAT at 200%, PPC at 180%, XMR at 170%, DASH at 200%, LTC at 190%, ETH at 150% and BTC at 200%

If you take ETH for example, out of 140k ETH wagered last month, only 56k are on dice, and over 85k are on roulette.
Given the higher house edge on roulette, higher profit for this month is not an anomaly, but something you would expect.

I didn't know that, that makes investing quite more attractive than I thought at first (although after Dogecoin doubling in a few days it will be better to wait some time to get any).

I'd suggest adding the annualized return since you started investing, not just last month's annualized return.

[Kasperiko]

An excellent review and what is more gratifying is that now much has become clear before our eyes. Sorry I can not put merit for such an excellent job!
What do you think from your understanding of the market, the graphs fully prove the theory that once a month, in proportion to the prices on the market, you need to calibrate the portfolio of crypto-currencies? Or is it better to leave almost all of the money in the top three and leave 10% for speculation?

[Lutpin]

I've missed out on doing an update for August, so there's two sets of numbers incoming, first off, the catching up for the missed update, the numbers for the prior month, August.
And shortly after, I'll also do the September update, so we're back on track. Due to this, the August update will only be in text (and included in the September chart), but I won't update the OP for it.

Here are the numbers for August (Month #9):

BTC investment: 0.540% increase.
ETH investment: 10.787% increase.
LTC investment: 1.720% increase.
XMR investment: 0.433% increase.
STRAT investment: 5.972% increase.
DOGE investment: 2.834% increase.
DASH investment: 0.716% decrease.
PPC investment: 4.957% decrease.
GAS investment: 14.687% increase.
BCH investment: 19.129% increase.
And the newly added ETC investment: 2.632% increase.

Average return assuming same investment in all coins: 4.824% increase.

And some rollover numbers since there is no table for this month:
The average rollover was 382.96%, by far the highest since I started tracking monthly rollovers.
Biggest percentage on a single coin had BCH with 1,611% rollover, followed by ETH with 650% and PPC with 615%.
Lowest rollovers were at Dash and BTC (55%).

The big surprise that month is certainly ETH, which has a big bankroll, and yet also provided big returns.
GAS and BCH had even bigger gains, but have lower bankrolls, so a breakout is not that surprising.
BTC has been slow for a few months now, in part due to low bankroll rollover, and in equal parts due to players being lucky on BTC for the last months.


For better navigation, I have added a quicklink section to the first reply. Currently, there are links to all monthly update posts for quick browsing there.
I will also list posts or particular interest in the list, like the monthly rollover comparison, or the ETH hotwallet chart.

I hope this helps people finding the things they are searching for more quickly.

Monthly updates:

December [1]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg27312374#msg27312374
January [2]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg29405814#msg29405814
February [3]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg31449414#msg31449414
March [4]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg33872922#msg33872922
April [5]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg36085478#msg36085478
May [6]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg39245245#msg39245245
June [7]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg41336068#msg41336068
July [8]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg44995393#msg44995393
August [9]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg46443989#msg46443989

Special posts:

Rollovers: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg42120737#msg42120737
ETH Hot-Wallet monitoring: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2445163.msg42552847#msg42552847

[eternalgloom]

There's something I've been meaning to ask you.

I was planning on writing an article about the investments on Crypto Games, I'd like to also mention this thread, add a short summary and a link to the thread of course.
Now I was wondering if I could use one of your charts as a (secondary) image in that article. I'll add proper references to you and your thread.

Let me know if that's something you'd be comfortable with, me using the image, I mean.

Replying here instead of sending a pm, just so the possible permission is publicly visible.

[pingpongball]

Unfortunately it seems as if BTC and ETH are no longer options for investing.

[Lutpin]

We're missing one month of stats, so here's those for September (Month #10):

BTC investment: 0.130% decrease.
ETH investment: 3.212% increase.
LTC investment: 0.807% increase.
XMR investment: 4.140% increase.
STRAT investment: 2.500% increase.
DOGE investment: 5.891% increase.
DASH investment: 0.144% decrease.
PPC investment: 9.731% increase.
GAS investment: 0.479% increase.
BCH investment: 1.663% decrease.
ETC investment: 2.794% increase.

Average return assuming same investment in all coins: 2.511% increase.

Biggest rollover was on Doge with 550%, resulting due to a big decrease in the bankroll size (doge prizes increased, some investors opted to sell their holdings).
The average rollover was 207%, around half the average rollover of the month before, and the average investment increase is also roughly half the one of the previous month.
For the first time in 10 tracked months, the BTC investment has shown negative returns. I don't think I spoil too much for next month when I say this is not going to stay the case.

I was planning on writing an article about the investments on Crypto Games, I'd like to also mention this thread, add a short summary and a link to the thread of course.
Now I was wondering if I could use one of your charts as a (secondary) image in that article. I'll add proper references to you and your thread.

I'm currently working on a way to better present the charts and tables.
Ideally something that would be interactive, letting you compare selected coins to each other, or browse only a certain timeframe.
As the images like they are now are outdated and going to be replaced soon with that upgrade, you can use them in whatever way you wish.
Once I've done the new version, and if you want to further use my investment overview in your articles, we can discuss if and how you can use those new charts and tables.

I translated your thread into Russian. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5032640.0

Thanks for giving those that aren't able to speak english a chance to understand/access my information as well.

Unfortunately it seems as if BTC and ETH are no longer options for investing.

Indeed, investments for BTC and ETH are closed for new investors right now, the topic has been discussed earlier in this thread already, I think,
and I continue tracking all my investments for the sake of completion.

[NJB18]

Hmm. Some of those altcoin investor gains are looking good. Bitcoin gains aren't really that big since most investors are into it. I might invest most of my sleeping altcoins while the market is still waiting for a recovery.

[Lutpin]

Closing in on on year worth of stats, here's those for October (Month #11):

BTC investment: 3.667% increase.
ETH investment: 1.043% increase.
LTC investment: 3.421% increase.
XMR investment: 1.275% increase.
STRAT investment: 0.427% increase.
DOGE investment: 7.942% increase.
DASH investment: 0.680% decrease.
PPC investment: 8.909% increase.
GAS investment: 1.284% increase.
BCH investment: 8.611% decrease.
ETC investment: 4.772% increase.

Average return assuming same investment in all coins: 3.697% increase.

A really good month again, overall. The average increase is almost 4% and with just one month missing for the first full year, we're nearing a 20% total increase on average.
Notable this month was a huge rollover on doge (over 1200%). Another thing worth pointing out is the continue of DASH's underperformance. Despite having alright rollovers and a relatively small bankroll, dash investments are by far the poorest performing ones over the full period (yet still up 4%, which is an alright apr).

[NJB18]

Cool decent numbers. Mr. Lutpin I can see your name with some huge investments there. Are you the owner or partially? Or just someone with big investments there? You know the owner/s personally? Thanks.

[eternalgloom]

Once I've done the new version, and if you want to further use my investment overview in your articles, we can discuss if and how you can use those new charts and tables

Okay, that's completely fine by me. Thanks!

Sorry for the late reply, only just noticed.