Bitcoin Forum
May 11, 2024, 11:56:56 AM
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
News
: Latest Bitcoin Core release:
27.0
[
Torrent
]
Home
Help
Search
Login
Register
More
Bitcoin Forum
>
Local
>
中文 (Chinese)
>
离题万里
>
华尔街评非农就业:数据无碍 美联储会如期缩表加息
Pages: [
1
]
« previous topic
next topic »
Print
Author
Topic: 华尔街评非农就业:数据无碍 美联储会如期缩表加息 (Read 94 times)
dum306
(OP)
Member
Offline
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
华尔街评非农就业:数据无碍 美联储会如期缩表加息
November 23, 2017, 08:19:51 PM
#1
尽管6月非农就业报告数据喜忧参半,华尔街仍预计美联储的收紧货币日程不会受影响。本周五公布的美国6月非农就业报告显示,就业加快增长,薪资增长持续落后:6月新增非农就业者较预期多增4.4万人,5月新增就业者上修1.4万人;6月劳动力参与率由62.7%升至62.8%;6月失业率4.4%,预期和5月均为4.3%;6月平均时薪增速不及预期,且5月增速下修。非农就业数据公布前,华尔街普遍预计,美联储将在今年9月的会议上决定启动缩减资产负债表(缩表),将在12月会议后宣布今年第三次加息。数据公布后,分析人士并未改变预期。《华尔街日报》指出,强劲的6月非农就业报告应该会让美联储官员更安心,因为经济表现与他们的预期一致。报告并不会对美联储近期行动有重大影响,联储本月会议料将按兵不动,联储官员已暗示可能9月启动缩表。Wilmington Trust的首席经济学家Luke Tilley说:“没有在报告里看到任何我预计会改变美联储立场的东西。”他预计,美联储将9月缩表。PNC Financial Services的首席经济学家Gus Faucher预计,6月报告将让美联储保持在循序渐进加息的轨道。有“债券之王”称号的 DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach认为,6月非农就业报告应会让美联储保持紧缩模式,保持“一个季度加息一次的心态”。和过去每次会议加息一次的老派加息不同,现在是老派连续收紧货币的新方式。市场表现显示,6月非农就业报告助长了风险偏好。周五美股集体高开,盘中纳指涨超1%,道指一度涨逾200点,标普500涨幅接近0.7%;黄金跌超1%;美元指数涨约0.2%,美元兑日元刷新日高至114.18;中长期美债价格下跌、收益率普涨,10年期美债收益率涨至2.398%创八周新高。最大亮点:就业增长基于美国过去人口增长放缓,经济学家预计,要让美国劳动力市场保持健康,每月新增就业者不到10万人即可。而6月报告显示,过去三个月美国月均新增就业者19.4万人,高于今年一季度月均水平16.6万人和去年月均水平18.7万人。求职网站Glassdoor的首席经济学家Andrew Chamberlain认为,6月报告显示,今夏美国人才市场欣欣向荣。(以上图表来自华尔街见闻数据频道)6月劳动力参与率较预期和5月均上升了0.1个百分点,仍徘徊在将近四十年来低位。《华尔街日报》认为,这部分源于美国人口老龄化,退休的劳动者增加。25岁到54岁的劳动者参与率6月升至81.6%,仍低于本世纪金融危机爆发两年前的平均水平83%。失业率、薪资增长并非看上去那么糟对于6月失业率意外上升,Tilley认为眼光要长远,观察3个月或者6个月的均值应该会看到,就业增速超过了劳动力增速,而这会不断压低失业率。《华尔街日报》则是认为,6月失业率回升要考虑到当月劳动力参与率上扬,找到工作的人增多了,愿意找工作、加入劳动者大军的人也增加了。(以上图表来自华尔街见闻数据频道)至于6月薪资增速逊于预期,Tilley指出,6月非农报告的数据和他从客户那里听到的情况截然不同,客户反映公司承受的加薪压力明显增加。Tilley和另一些经济学家还认为,薪资增长疲软的部分原因可能是大批五六十岁的“婴儿潮”一代人已有高薪,不会再有大幅加薪。这些人退休后会被薪水相对较低的80、90后取代。Tilley预计,未来几个月薪资会加快增长。《华尔街日报》认为,仍没有薪资压力累积的显著迹象。过去一年时薪同比增速都稳定在2.5%,只有今年5月下修到了2.4%。也有分析人士质疑薪资能否带来足够的通胀上行压力。苏格兰皇家银行的利率策略主管John Briggs就认为,如果通胀持续疲软,就让人怀疑美联储是不是真有可能今年12月加息。没有多少理由让他相信薪资会推动通胀走高。数据再次强化了就业增长、薪资压力却不大的现状,仍需观望。Briggs预计,美联储现在还处于9月会缩表但不加息的正轨。(以上图表来自华尔街见闻数据频道)
Pages: [
1
]
Print
Bitcoin Forum
>
Local
>
中文 (Chinese)
>
离题万里
>
华尔街评非农就业:数据无碍 美联储会如期缩表加息
« previous topic
next topic »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Bitcoin
-----------------------------
=> Bitcoin Discussion
===> Legal
===> Press
===> Meetups
===> Important Announcements
=> Development & Technical Discussion
===> Wallet software
=====> Electrum
=====> Bitcoin Wallet for Android
=====> BitcoinJ
=====> Armory
=====> Mycelium
=====> Hardware wallets
=> Mining
===> Mining support
===> Pools
===> Mining software (miners)
===> Hardware
=====> Group buys
===> Mining speculation
=> Bitcoin Technical Support
=> Project Development
-----------------------------
Economy
-----------------------------
=> Economics
===> Speculation
=> Marketplace
===> Goods
=====> Computer hardware
=====> Digital goods
=======> Invites & Accounts
=====> Collectibles
===> Services
===> Currency exchange
===> Gambling
=====> Games and rounds
=====> Investor-based games
=====> Gambling discussion
===> Lending
=====> Long-term offers
===> Securities
===> Auctions
===> Service Announcements
=====> Micro Earnings
===> Service Discussion
=====> Web Wallets
=====> Exchanges
=> Trading Discussion
===> Scam Accusations
===> Reputation
-----------------------------
Other
-----------------------------
=> Meta
===> New forum software
===> Bitcoin Wiki
=> Politics & Society
=> Beginners & Help
=> Off-topic
=> Serious discussion
===> Ivory Tower
=> Archival
===> Корзина
===> CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware
===> Chinese students
===> Obsolete (buying)
===> Obsolete (selling)
===> MultiBit
-----------------------------
Alternate cryptocurrencies
-----------------------------
=> Altcoin Discussion
=> Announcements (Altcoins)
===> Tokens (Altcoins)
=> Mining (Altcoins)
===> Pools (Altcoins)
=> Marketplace (Altcoins)
===> Service Announcements (Altcoins)
===> Service Discussion (Altcoins)
===> Bounties (Altcoins)
=> Speculation (Altcoins)
-----------------------------
Local
-----------------------------
=> العربية (Arabic)
===> العملات البديلة (Altcoins)
=====> النقاشات
===> إستفسارات و أسئلة المبتدئين
===> التعدين
===> النقاشات الأخرى
===> منصات التبادل
=> Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian)
===> Marketplace (Bahasa Indonesia)
===> Mining (Bahasa Indonesia)
===> Altcoins (Bahasa Indonesia)
===> Trading dan Spekulasi
===> Ekonomi, Politik, dan Budaya
===> Topik Lainnya
=> Español (Spanish)
===> Mercado y Economía
=====> Servicios
=====> Trading y especulación
===> Hardware y Minería
===> Esquina Libre
===> Mercadillo
=====> Mexico
=====> Argentina
=====> España
=====> Centroamerica y Caribe
===> Primeros pasos y ayuda
===> Altcoins (criptomonedas alternativas)
=====> Minería de altcoins
=====> Servicios
=====> Tokens (Español)
=> 中文 (Chinese)
===> 跳蚤市场
===> 山寨币
===> 媒体
===> 挖矿
===> 离题万里
=> Hrvatski (Croatian)
===> Trgovina
===> Altcoins (Hrvatski)
=====> Announcements (Hrvatski)
===> Off-topic (Hrvatski)
=> Deutsch (German)
===> Anfänger und Hilfe
===> Mining (Deutsch)
===> Trading und Spekulation
===> Projektentwicklung
===> Off-Topic (Deutsch)
===> Treffen
===> Presse
===> Altcoins (Deutsch)
=====> Announcements (Deutsch)
===> Marktplatz
=====> Auktionen
=====> Suche
=====> Biete
=> Ελληνικά (Greek)
===> Αγορά
===> Mining Discussion (Ελληνικά)
===> Altcoins (Ελληνικά)
=====> Altcoin Announcements (Ελληνικά)
=====> Altcoin Mining (Ελληνικά)
=> עברית (Hebrew)
=> Français
===> Actualité et News
===> Débutants
===> Discussions générales et utilisation du Bitcoin
===> Mining et Hardware
===> Économie et spéculation
===> Place de marché
=====> Échanges
=====> Produits et services
=====> Petites annonces
===> Le Bitcoin et la loi
===> Wiki, documentation et traduction
===> Développement et technique
===> Vos sites et projets
===> Hors-sujet
===> Altcoins (Français)
=====> Annonces
=> India
===> Mining (India)
===> Marketplace (India)
===> Regional Languages (India)
===> Press & News from India
===> Alt Coins (India)
===> Buyer/ Seller Reputations (India)
===> Off-Topic (India)
=> Italiano (Italian)
===> Guide (Italiano)
===> Progetti
===> Discussioni avanzate e sviluppo
===> Trading, analisi e speculazione
===> Mercato
=====> Mercato valute
=====> Beni
=====> Servizi
=====> Esercizi commerciali
=====> Hardware/Mining (Italiano)
=====> Gambling (Italiano)
===> Accuse scam/truffe
===> Mining (Italiano)
===> Alt-Currencies (Italiano)
=====> Annunci
===> Raduni/Meeting (Italiano)
===> Crittografia e decentralizzazione
===> Off-Topic (Italiano)
=> 日本語 (Japanese)
===> アルトコイン
=> Nederlands (Dutch)
===> Markt
===> Gokken/lotterijen
===> Mining (Nederlands)
===> Beurzen
===> Alt Coins (Nederlands)
===> Off-topic (Nederlands)
===> Meetings (Nederlands)
=> Nigeria (Naija)
===> Politics and society (Naija)
===> Off-topic (Naija)
=> 한국어 (Korean)
===> 대체코인 Alt Coins (한국어)
=> Pilipinas
===> Altcoins (Pilipinas)
=====> Altcoin Announcements (Pilipinas)
===> Pamilihan
===> Others (Pilipinas)
=> Polski
===> Tablica ogłoszeń
===> Alternatywne kryptowaluty
=====> Nowe kryptowaluty i tokeny
=====> Tablica ogłoszeń (altcoiny)
=> Português (Portuguese)
===> Primeiros Passos (Iniciantes)
===> Economia & Mercado
===> Mineração em Geral
===> Desenvolvimento & Discussões Técnicas
===> Criptomoedas Alternativas
===> Brasil
===> Portugal
=> Русский (Russian)
===> Новички
===> Бизнес
=====> Барахолка
=====> Обменники
===> Идеи
===> Кодеры
===> Майнеры
===> Политика
===> Трейдеры
===> Альтернативные криптовалюты
=====> Токены
=====> Бayнти и aиpдpoпы
===> Хайпы
===> Работа
===> Разное
===> Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin
=====> Новости
=====> Юристы
=> Română (Romanian)
===> Anunturi importante
===> Offtopic
===> Market
=====> Discutii Servicii
===> Minerit
===> Tutoriale
===> Bine ai venit!
===> Presa
===> Altcoins (Monede Alternative)
=====> Anunturi Monede Alternative
=> Skandinavisk
=> Türkçe (Turkish)
===> Bitcoin Haberleri
===> Pazar Alanı
===> Madencilik
===> Ekonomi
===> Servisler
=====> Fonlar
===> Proje Geliştirme
===> Alternatif Kripto-Paralar
=====> Madencilik (Alternatif Kripto-Paralar)
=====> Duyurular (Alternatif Kripto-Paralar)
===> Konu Dışı
===> Yeni Başlayanlar & Yardım
===> Buluşmalar
=> Other languages/locations
Loading...