What exactly is the bear case? (sincere question)

[vokain]

MtGox, our major exchange, will be back to normal soon, this was a major cause of decline. Seeing as it's been approved to be a licensed MSB by FinCEN, it will give them and the community much needed validity whilst removing prevalent market uncertainty.

What else?

[worldinacoin]

I feel that the huge numbers of rave reports that we had seen earlier on Bitcoins doesn't seem to be continuing, maybe the general public is not that focused on Bitcoins due to the lack of new news?

[Artofficial]

Oh, there's nothing uncertain about the market. We're enjoying the fiat summer.

[mgio]

3600 bitcoins are mined everyday. Unless bitcoin continues to grow, the price will drop just from the new coins mined.

[tokeweed]

what does bitcoin have going for it?

answer:  hype.

i know cryptocurrencies are the future, but until the mainstream accepts it, btc could well go down to who the hell knows. i hope not back to single digit levels.

the good news is this is just the beginning. there are other cryptos people can speculate on and make money off as the technology keeps improving, evolving and slowly being used and accepted by the mainstream.

my bet is on ripple.

edit:  even then, if cryptos are widely accepted, its value would still go up and down like the usd, eur, gbp, etc..

[mgio]

what does bitcoin have going for it?

answer:  hype.

i know cryptocurrencies are the future, but until the mainstream accepts it, btc could well go down to who the hell knows. i hope not back to single digit levels.

the good news is this is just the beginning. there are other cryptos people can speculate on and make money off as the technology keeps improving, evolving and slowly being used and accepted by the mainstream.

my bet is on ripple.

edit:  even then, if cryptos are widely accepted, its value would still go up and down like the usd, eur, gbp, etc..

Ripple is a scam. It is controlled by a single corporation that kept the vast majority of the coins for itself.

Did you know the market cap for Ripple is actually higher than bitcoin. That's how ridiculous ripple is. Most people will never use trust it and thus never use it. I know I never will.

[tokeweed]

what does bitcoin have going for it?

answer:  hype.

i know cryptocurrencies are the future, but until the mainstream accepts it, btc could well go down to who the hell knows. i hope not back to single digit levels.

the good news is this is just the beginning. there are other cryptos people can speculate on and make money off as the technology keeps improving, evolving and slowly being used and accepted by the mainstream.

my bet is on ripple.

edit:  even then, if cryptos are widely accepted, its value would still go up and down like the usd, eur, gbp, etc..

Ripple is a scam. It is controlled by a single corporation that kept the vast majority of the coins for itself.

Did you know the market cap for Ripple is actually higher than bitcoin. That's how ridiculous ripple is. Most people will never use trust it and thus never use it. I know I never will.

its not a scam in my view. the ripple network could be something big. as for xrp, yes you could say it's a scam just like i can argue the usd is a scam.

but in my pov, these (crypocurrency trading) are like a giant casino, just like how i see the stock market as one big giant casino. its gambling in a way. but there are methods and ways to get an edge and profit.

its all about money and making a profit.

[Wagner2014]

The Bear case is simple. The value of bitcoin went up waaaay too fast. It has no real support at the mid range levels. There are not months of buyers supporting each level. What goes straight up (without support) can easily come crashing down.

You also have people holding substantial amounts of bitcoins that paid next to nothing for them. They are sitting on a windfall and will want to cash out some of their chips while the price is still high. They can always pick some more up again when the price is lower.

Finally, there is not any real method of shorting the bitcoin at the moment; this caused an unrealistic spike in the price to be even more unrealistic.

The CAVEAT is news. News can bring in new buyers and cause a spike.

[halfawake]

3600 bitcoins are mined everyday. Unless bitcoin continues to grow, the price will drop just from the new coins mined.

It all depends on the perception of the miners.  If the majority think the bitcoin price is going to go up, they'll likely hold on to a good chunk of their mined coins.  If they don't, they'll sell.  So technically the amount of coins being mined isn't as relevant as the amount of mined coins being sold, which is a harder number to figure out.

[mp420]

Bitcoin market was in a speculative bubble, and it's still workin with a bubble logic, although we're post-peak. I'm bearish because in my perception there's no long term demand around; the heavy bidding comes from people who sold high or the very stupid  people whose brain still works in the bubble mode.

Eventually, the enthusiasm will die out and the bids will just be sold through. There are many people under water (in possession of BTC worth less than they invested in them). They're going to sell into the downtrend to cut their losses and perhaps try to catch the bottom and buy back in, maybe a bit more carefully this time.

[benjamindees]

My view of the bear case is that, unlike previous bubbles, the new users this time are almost completely focused on mining/speculation only.  There is almost no growth of the real economy.  Not even very much discussion of it, or even potential avenues of growth.  And there is no guarantee that, once mining becomes unprofitable for the majority of them, they will switch to doing anything productive rather than simply cashing out and leaving.

[BitcoinAshley]

Easy

Bitcoin Spring.

Fiat Summer.

Bitcoin fall? Maybe we'll have to wait till next spring. But with the way things are going, who knows. 

Don't worry, the bernankster's got our back. He'll do something stupid in the coming months. Or the bankster cartels. They'll try to bail-in another country with depositor funds or something.

[vokain]

Easy

Bitcoin Spring.

Fiat Summer.

Bitcoin fall? Maybe we'll have to wait till next spring. But with the way things are going, who knows. 

Don't worry, the bernankster's got our back. He'll do something stupid in the coming months. Or the bankster cartels. They'll try to bail-in another country with depositor funds or something.

I don't see the logic BitcoinAshley.. perhaps you can walk us through

[Qoheleth]

Finally, there is not any real method of shorting the bitcoin at the moment;

Bitfinex shorts have single-digit APRs right now. Bitfinex BTC shorts have existed since before the crash.

I'm not going to argue about most of your post but this "there's no way to short BTC" meme has gone on way too long.

[Frozenlock]

To be fair, there's less than 2k BTCs available to short.
It's not what I would use to say "See, you can short!!"

[ElectricMucus]

We aren't really in the discussion about a real bear case, all this is yet is a correction. And it will be until the price is above $20.

A real bear case would be a multi-year downturn ending below the 2011 low of $1.98.

[Elwar]

Basically the dollar is such a good investment that people are all jumping on board. I cashed out all of my stocks and bought dollars.

I have also taken out a huge loan in the hopes that the dollar goes up a lot.

We are all going to be rich!

[vokain]

Basically the dollar is such a good investment that people are all jumping on board. I cashed out all of my stocks and bought dollars.

I have also taken out a huge loan in the hopes that the dollar goes up a lot.

We are all going to be rich!

that's what they said during the roaring twenties

[chriswilmer]

Basically the dollar is such a good investment that people are all jumping on board. I cashed out all of my stocks and bought dollars.

I have also taken out a huge loan in the hopes that the dollar goes up a lot.

We are all going to be rich!

I think you made a great investment! The dollar is going up like CRAZY: http://www.theonion.com/articles/markets-in-turmoil-as-price-of-money-skyrockets-to,32939/

[k9quaint]

Basically the dollar is such a good investment that people are all jumping on board. I cashed out all of my stocks and bought dollars.

I have also taken out a huge loan in the hopes that the dollar goes up a lot.

We are all going to be rich!

that's what they said during the roaring twenties

If they had bought dollars in 1920 it would have been a good investment for 12 years.