Why are people cheering that ASICMINER will bring 800-1000TH online this year?

[bitfair]

Digital Chinese Bernie Madoff.  Scarcity and your soul is being replaced for digital fiat promises.  People in the beginning may make some coin.  He is selling out everyone who is too lazy to mine with their own hardware for his own benefit.

Long story short, you are helping someone to consistently, eventually, own 50% of the network at all times so long as they replace their own hardware and what they sell to others with current ASIC tech.

Would you like it if Bernanke owned 50% of the network at all times?  I don't know how I can describe it in any other way.

Someone with that much coin in the end can create their own bubbles.

I hope you realize that you are making some fairly serious accusations against a well-respected member of the community, and implying that one of the best-run companies in Bitcoin-land is a scam.

Nevertheless, let me tell you: ASICMINER is not selling shares any more, and have not sold shares for the last 10 months or so, when their IPO was finished. The founders sold shares in the company to finance the production of the first batch of chips and raised a little over $100k. After the IPO, ASICMINER has not sold any more shares and all shares on the market since the IPO was finished have been "second hand".

The only thing ASICMINER is selling is mining hardware.

But you are right that ASICMINER is earning a lot of money, and can "create their own bubbles" if they like. The same way anyone with a large enough amount of cash has some power to influence markets. But having enough money to do something and actually doing it are two very different things. Bill Gates also has enough money to manipulate markets, but for some reason he isn't normally accused of doing it...

[jc328]

It is better to have a trustworthy operator than BFL it is the fault of the competition for doing so damn awful.
We wouldn't even be worrying about this if they could just perform.
That said I agree that they have the capacity but they will only use it if they need it they have a reason to ensure their network control remains less than what they can maximize.
That said the power to back up the claim is impressive in that respect.
I see no reason though to initiate a 50% attack on the network not only would the bitcoin price drop significantly, all profits from mining would as well.
That result would be illogical to profit maximization and from a libertarian perspective would be unusual.
Basically they are able to scale up as needed based on competition growth on the network.
BFL customers are going to panic as they realize that they are getting ever more squeezed which probably is part of the reason BFL is not refunding now.
That said for the libertarians
Klondike is a real project and when its finished more competition will arrive so just enjoy the ride for now

Off side
ASICminer holder but the negativity is refreshing  
Criticism is nice
But I hope your not trying to cause a share price collapse to buy more shares rofl
At least your argument was better than some I have seen but it makes less sense going for a 50% attack for the reasons above
Still surprising though the most inefficient version of ASIC's is the most profitable and as they grow they start catching up to the more advanced spec competitors naturally
If real competition shows up with superior units and cheaper prices well that would be different and this fear would be muted.

I do completely agree that it would be detrimental to their own business to do such an attack...just always a bit concerned when one even has that option to consider, hah.  Seems the idea of decentralization is great but it can end up in a monopoly quite easy...Perhaps with more competition it will create less concern.

Regarding your side notes, I do hope not everyone thinks that people raising concerns or praising Asicminer are automatically thought of as shills or trying to create  or collapse a bubble.  Always nice to have some new ideas to ponder vs the standard discourse.

[firefop]

BFL ASICs ROI gets shaky with a $60 bitcoin at 1,500,000,000 difficulty ... but I guess there's Europeans with 50c per kilowatt/hour power bills.

I think you added a few too many zeros.
http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
BFL 50GH/s @ $2499 (straight from their product page) will never generate a return @ 80,000,000 difficulty, $94/BTC and 1.2788% growth rate.

ASICMiner is looking at this same curve. Very soon it will not make sense for ASICMiner to deploy their own hardware.

ACTUALLY:

At 640,000,000 difficulty a BFL SC SINGLE will still be making ~ 1.32 btc per month. You're numbers are just plain wrong and ASICMINER about twice as power hungry as bfl gear (and 2/3 as avalon).

~

If you had a SC SINGLE in hand right now - you'd roi in under 2 weeks. @ 80,000,000 difficulty it's still under 3 weeks.

[jc328]

Now AM investors are kind of nervous because they investments hardware are in great China and anything can happens. No search warrant needed and can come as they wish, hope AM has hide those mining babies pretty well

Yeah, but I heard they have laser turrets surrounding the building, so no problem.

It may surprise some of you that China is a fairly civilized country and has laws too!

Reading some of the posts in this thread, I'm reminded of those guys in South Park who always say "they took our jobs!"

Having family in asia, they do indeed have laws that are generally obeyed.  However, lets not dance around the fact that they can change the rules at their own discretion, and at any point.  I do not feel this will have an impact on asicminer at this point however.  But if they decided they wanted to shut it down, I have no doubt they would simply go in and do so with no regard.  It really is that simple over there unfortunately.

[bitfair]

Now AM investors are kind of nervous because they investments hardware are in great China and anything can happens. No search warrant needed and can come as they wish, hope AM has hide those mining babies pretty well

Yeah, but I heard they have laser turrets surrounding the building, so no problem.

It may surprise some of you that China is a fairly civilized country and has laws too!

Reading some of the posts in this thread, I'm reminded of those guys in South Park who always say "they took our jobs!"

Having family in asia, they do indeed have laws that are generally obeyed.  However, lets not dance around the fact that they can change the rules at their own discretion, and at any point.  I do not feel this will have an impact on asicminer at this point however.  But if they decided they wanted to shut it down, I have no doubt they would simply go in and do so with no regard.  It really is that simple over there unfortunately.

Although perhaps not much of a consolation, I would guess that the "political risk" (so to speak) would be as large in the US as it is in China.

[Paladin69]

Digital Chinese Bernie Madoff.  Scarcity and your soul is being replaced for digital fiat promises.  People in the beginning may make some coin.  He is selling out everyone who is too lazy to mine with their own hardware for his own benefit.

Long story short, you are helping someone to consistently, eventually, own 50% of the network at all times so long as they replace their own hardware and what they sell to others with current ASIC tech.

Would you like it if Bernanke owned 50% of the network at all times?  I don't know how I can describe it in any other way.

Someone with that much coin in the end can create their own bubbles.

I hope you realize that you are making some fairly serious accusations against a well-respected member of the community, and implying that one of the best-run companies in Bitcoin-land is a scam.

Nevertheless, let me tell you: ASICMINER is not selling shares any more, and have not sold shares for the last 10 months or so, when their IPO was finished. The founders sold shares in the company to finance the production of the first batch of chips and raised a little over $100k. After the IPO, ASICMINER has not sold any more shares and all shares on the market since the IPO was finished have been "second hand".

The only thing ASICMINER is selling is mining hardware.

But you are right that ASICMINER is earning a lot of money, and can "create their own bubbles" if they like. The same way anyone with a large enough amount of cash has some power to influence markets. But having enough money to do something and actually doing it are two very different things. Bill Gates also has enough money to manipulate markets, but for some reason he isn't normally accused of doing it...

A lot of rich people thought Madoff ran a very good company too.  He did make a lot of money for his clients before taking it all.  He can't take coins but he could retract shares.

I dunno, I've said my peace.  I don't like it.  Money is the root of all evils.  I've learned to never trust anyone but myself.  He could sell more shares again in the future.  All I am saying is it is a genius system if you're in it for yourself to keep growing.  There really is no stop to it if he wanted.  So long as people keep buying the devices.

We now just have to trust he won't be mining with his equipment in the future?

Bill Gates would cause a huge bubble if he got in via gox or some exchange.  The best way to do it is mine your way in and not buy any.  The manipuFlation comes later.

I've seen this type of expansion before on the S&P500.  Commodities that can also be traded on paper.  Your governments do this to you all the time.  In this case the terms are different but the scam is the same.

People can laugh at me all they want.  This just isn't good.

[dan99]

Now AM investors are kind of nervous because they investments hardware are in great China and anything can happens. No search warrant needed and can come as they wish, hope AM has hide those mining babies pretty well

Yeah, but I heard they have laser turrets surrounding the building, so no problem.

It may surprise some of you that China is a fairly civilized country and has laws too!

Reading some of the posts in this thread, I'm reminded of those guys in South Park who always say "they took our jobs!"

Having family in asia, they do indeed have laws that are generally obeyed.  However, lets not dance around the fact that they can change the rules at their own discretion, and at any point.  I do not feel this will have an impact on asicminer at this point however.  But if they decided they wanted to shut it down, I have no doubt they would simply go in and do so with no regard.  It really is that simple over there unfortunately.

Yes, as simple as that " if they decided they wanted to shut it down, I have no doubt they would simply go in and do so with no regard."

Remember the Tienanmen Square incidents in the 1980's when 1000 of students were killed, did the army and police got indicted or judge? a few days ago in Xinjiang, China quite a number about 50 people or more were killed by the police and the Uygur minorities. What is lives to them??

All your shares in AM gone.

[Bogart]

ASICMINER will bring 800-1000TH online this year

Link plz.

[mgio]

Although I am highly invested in Asicminer Shares, it is a bit disconcerting that they will control so much power under one single entity.  

Dude you should sell and get KNC instead.

Nobody should be supporting these assholes.  It would be a different story if they weren't mining with what they produce, but they are.

We really need a sticky or something explaining how this will kill the small miner.  It still isn't too late to apply the brakes to this if an information campaign is started.

No, BFL and Avalon are the assholes.

People are just jealous because ASICMiner is doing it right.  They didn't mess up like the others did and actually delivered a working product.

Fortunately, you can buy their shares so if you can't beat em, join em.

[Paladin69]

Although I am highly invested in Asicminer Shares, it is a bit disconcerting that they will control so much power under one single entity.  

Dude you should sell and get KNC instead.

Nobody should be supporting these assholes.  It would be a different story if they weren't mining with what they produce, but they are.

We really need a sticky or something explaining how this will kill the small miner.  It still isn't too late to apply the brakes to this if an information campaign is started.

No, BFL and Avalon are the assholes.

People are just jealous because ASICMiner is doing it right.  They didn't mess up like the others did and actually delivered a working product.

Fortunately, you can buy their shares so if you can't beat em, join em.

That's what my friend said when he joined the military.  He couldn't beat them, but now he gets a paycheck bombing little kids in the middle east.

[szmarco]

AsicMiner is too greedy.The arm competition is not good for bitcoin. It will become more centralized.

[bitfair]

A lot of rich people thought Madoff ran a very good company too.  He did make a lot of money for his clients before taking it all.

I dunno, I've said my peace.  I don't like it.  Money is the root of all evils.  I've learned to never trust anyone but myself.  He could sell more shares again in the future.  All I am saying is it is a genius system if you're in it for yourself to keep growing.  There really is no stop to it if he wanted.  So long as people keep buying the devices.

We now just have to trust he won't be mining with his equipment in the future?

Bill Gates would cause a huge bubble if he got in via gox or some exchange.  The best way to do it is mine your way in and not buy any.  The manipuFlation comes later.

I've seen this type of expansion before on the S&P500.  Commodities that can also be traded on paper.  Your governments do this to you all the time.  In this case the terms are different but the scam is the same.

People can laugh at me all they want.  This just isn't good.

So far there is no evidence that ASICMINER management has done anything unethical. In fact, there is a growing body of evidence that they have acted honestly and with integrity at every opportunity.

But you are of course right that they could one day decide not to honor their commitments. Trusting a stranger on the internet is risky business, and there is little legal recourse.

They have held their word so far, I expect them to continue to honor their commitments.

[By the way, ASICMINER is a company that (1) mines bitcoin and (2) sells bitcoin mining hardware. Of course he mines with his equipment!]

[tinoki]

sure a lot of investors will be throwing away their shares. wouldn't want to loose everything in the event the police shut them.

[freedomno1]

AsicMiner is too greedy.The arm competition is not good for bitcoin. It will become more centralized.

Not so much as AM competition needs to put up not shut up ^^
Actually that quote doesn't work they won't shut up but they need to put up lol
Edit Again: Nvm it works just read it as an irony

[k9quaint]

BFL ASICs ROI gets shaky with a $60 bitcoin at 1,500,000,000 difficulty ... but I guess there's Europeans with 50c per kilowatt/hour power bills.

I think you added a few too many zeros.
http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
BFL 50GH/s @ $2499 (straight from their product page) will never generate a return @ 80,000,000 difficulty, $94/BTC and 1.2788% growth rate.

ASICMiner is looking at this same curve. Very soon it will not make sense for ASICMiner to deploy their own hardware.

ACTUALLY:

At 640,000,000 difficulty a BFL SC SINGLE will still be making ~ 1.32 btc per month. You're numbers are just plain wrong and ASICMINER about twice as power hungry as bfl gear (and 2/3 as avalon).

~

If you had a SC SINGLE in hand right now - you'd roi in under 2 weeks. @ 80,000,000 difficulty it's still under 3 weeks.

Given a device that hashes at 50GH/s for $2499 (https://products.butterflylabs.com/)
The first day at 80,000,000 difficulty, the device generates 0.314321 BTC.
Here is the series for bitcoins generated per week for 28 weeks with a 9.4% difficulty adjustment per week starting at 80,000,000 difficulty.
2.2 + 1.99 + 1.81 + 1.64 + 1.48 + 1.34 + 1.22 + 1.10 + 1.00 + .90 + 0.82 + 0.74 + 0.67 + 0.61 + 0.55 + 0.50 + 0.45 + 0.41 + 0.37 + 0.28 + 0.23 + 0.21 + 0.19 + 0.17 + 0.15 = 21.92 ($2126)
On the first day of the 28th week the device generates 0.0218 BTC

I checked that series with the following calculators and using a spreadsheet.
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/
http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/
http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
https://bitclockers.com/calc

[Paladin69]

AsicMiner is too greedy.The arm competition is not good for bitcoin. It will become more centralized.

For a while I thought maybe this would be attempted via CoinLab infiltration and their CEO Mr.Yes_Regulate_Us_Please where this would've happened first.  I had it wrong.  It's looking like it could happen on the other side of the pond.

[dan99]

Although I am highly invested in Asicminer Shares, it is a bit disconcerting that they will control so much power under one single entity.  

Dude you should sell and get KNC instead.

Nobody should be supporting these assholes.  It would be a different story if they weren't mining with what they produce, but they are.

We really need a sticky or something explaining how this will kill the small miner.  It still isn't too late to apply the brakes to this if an information campaign is started.

No, BFL and Avalon are the assholes.

People are just jealous because ASICMiner is doing it right.  They didn't mess up like the others did and actually delivered a working product.

Fortunately, you can buy their shares so if you can't beat em, join em.

That's what my friend said when he joined the military.  He couldn't beat them, but now he gets a paycheck bombing little kids in the middle east.

The Peoples Liberation Army is the biggest and most powerful. Who is gonna stand on their way. They are brutal and fearless. Death is glory to them and life is nothing. Who control them- the CP of China. So beware.  

[empoweoqwj]

Instead of blaming ASICMINER for delivering what they promised, why not blame the "competition" for failing to deliver anything on time? If they did, ASICMINER wouldn't stand out so much. Their only fault is delivering on time.

[k9quaint]

Instead of blaming ASICMINER for delivering what they promised, why not blame the "competition" for failing to deliver anything on time? If they did, ASICMINER wouldn't stand out so much. Their only fault is delivering on time.

If BFL delivers the rest of their orders (unlikely but possible) and KNCMiner delivers and Bitfury delivers and Avalon delivers their batch of chips, then the ASICMiner hardware will be obsolete.

ASCIMiner will still be able to make a small return on their hardware at wholesale prices. They won't be raking in the cash and we won't have to worry about them owning the blockchain.

ASICMiners only advantage is that they can deliver product.

[bitfair]

Instead of blaming ASICMINER for delivering what they promised, why not blame the "competition" for failing to deliver anything on time? If they did, ASICMINER wouldn't stand out so much. Their only fault is delivering on time.

If BFL delivers the rest of their orders (unlikely but possible) and KNCMiner delivers and Bitfury delivers and Avalon delivers their batch of chips, then the ASICMiner hardware will be obsolete.

ASCIMiner will still be able to make a small return on their hardware at wholesale prices. They won't be raking in the cash and we won't have to worry about them owning the blockchain.

ASICMiners only advantage is that they can deliver product.

Actually, they have one more advantage: lower production costs than all the competitors.

Meaning: in a price war, they have considerable ammo.

Edit: And also, products that are proven to work on a large scale since they eat their own dogfood.
Edit 2: Not to forget their full warchest!
Edit 3: And an almost fanatical devotion to th... oh damnit, I'll come in again...