The LTC effect on BTC

[jubalix]

I am beginning to think, that CC's as a whole will reach x Trillion, but at the expense of where BTC would go alone. I think BTC will go to $x100K each. But that 'x' will be a lot lower because of LTC.

It appears that a newer *innovative* coins, come along, eg LTC, the innovation is ok, but the real hook is it allows people who missed out being early adopter for BTC to wrest value/market share from BTC early adopters as their currency takes more of the market share.

It seems more people will jump on the newer coin as more people will have heard about CC at that time and thus look to put some interest$$ in the LTC of the day as they can see it has more potential to go up in a shorter time. The network effect is huge as well.

The asics moving into  BTC pushing GFX cards out will give a much larger dedicated userbase to LTC (until scrypt asics come along), and so garner more network effect. Also the GFX cards are subsidized by resale value and other uses, not so asics.

These factors force early adopter BTC holders to swap their BTC for LTC, as it does not cost them much in terms of net BTC's and real cost of the BTC for them. There must by 1000's of early adopter BTC's swapped for LTC right now, that simply would not have occurred otherwise.

IF LTC = 0.25BTC or higher that gives at least around 500M+ market cap (on coins out now) that would have otherwise been in BTC.

So BTC will rise but some significant proportion will be siphoned of by LTC and other coins.

It is also interesting to see the volume of BTC/LTC trade on BTCe is greater or similar to btc on gox (i think if I am reading it right). This will force LTC to Gox

This will also happen to LTC by some other coin.

I also find it absurd that people keep saying, "coin x" is not a get rich quick scheme. The whole reason people keep jumping on new coins is because BTC/CC is a get rich quick scheme, every one knows it, not much if anything in the last 4 - 5 years has gone up as much as BTC or even LTC in that last 2 years....and they are still in their infancy.

The bet that jump on coin x because it may go up it a lot better than not jumping particularly where you already have btc or miners.

I am not saying any of this is bad, in fact is may be good as it allows different coins/strategies and synergistic effects that BTC may not achiever on its own.

It is also worthwhile nothing that very few "first" or early "dominant" of anything in Tech/IT/inter tubes remain the dominant force. Eg, os before Microsoft, Mosaic (most of you probably never heard the first web browser), myspace, xerox park interface, nokia,

I am not an early adopter of either coin!

edit

CC = Crypto Currency

[cbeast]

More likely there will be Open Transaction or colored coin - Bitcoin hybrid derivatives.

[Zaih]

Risk is still proportional I believe. No such thing as 'early adopters', unless you know stuff others don't.

Good luck being an LTC early adopter though...

[Financisto]

Risk is still proportional I believe. No such thing as 'early adopters', unless you know stuff others don't.

Good luck being an LTC early adopter though...

There goes the old "The higher the return/profit, the higher shall be the risk as well" rule.

But that's the economic law which we all are regulated by...

[Wagner2014]

Apple had a better operating system than Microsoft, but Windows took 90% of the market.

Betamax was better than VCR, but Betamax wasn't widely adopted.

Bitcoin is the brand name in the space. The coins have no intrinsic value except market acceptance. So being in the leader position is huge. Most of the ecosystem is being built for bitcoin, not the alt currencies.

Perhaps LTC stands a chance of being a complementary currency.

[Diamondstarfall]

Apple had a better operating system than Microsoft, but Windows took 90% of the market.

Betamax was better than VCR, but Betamax wasn't widely adopted.

Bitcoin is the brand name in the space. The coins have no intrinsic value except market acceptance. So being in the leader position is huge. Most of the ecosystem is being built for bitcoin, not the alt currencies.

Perhaps LTC stands a chance of being a complementary currency.

That is one analogy that I have not thought of.

[Cyberdyne]

The network effect is indeed strong, but not impossible to overcome. Thing about the marketshare ICQ had before Messenger came along, and then Skype.

[tacotime]

The next few weeks will be interesting; as I said before

The 24 hour volume for LTC is well over 1M USD right now (MORE than the 24 hour volume of BTC/USD at mtgox) and the LTC economy seems healthier than ever

[jubalix]

The next few weeks will be interesting; as I said before

The 24 hour volume for LTC is well over 1M USD right now (MORE than the 24 hour volume of BTC/USD at mtgox) and the LTC economy seems healthier than ever

further, the LTC DEV team with Warren at the helm, the last piece of the puzzle missing for LTC, it now has a credible known DEV.

[Hyena]

First of all, wtf is CC?

Now, what seems interesting is that LTC has gone UP UP UP while BTC went DOWN DOWN DOWN. Usually LTC has been going the same direction as BTC but now it's different. Anyone knows why this could be the case?

Since I invested in LTC I've been in an opinion that whatever the eventual real price of BTC is, LTC's price has to be 4x lower (assuming they are both mature and everyone knows them).

So let's say BTC is currently overrated and its real value is 50$ per bitcoin. In that case LTC is still undervalued because 50/4 =12.5. This means that LTC has to go UP while BTC has to go down. Now one could say that there are other alt coins that consume some of the value but then again there aren't many to be taken seriously currently.

[jubalix]

First of all, wtf is CC?

Now, what seems interesting is that LTC has gone UP UP UP while BTC went DOWN DOWN DOWN. Usually LTC has been going the same direction as BTC but now it's different. Anyone knows why this could be the case?

Since I invested in LTC I've been in an opinion that whatever the eventual real price of BTC is, LTC's price has to be 4x lower (assuming they are both mature and everyone knows them).

So let's say BTC is currently overrated and its real value is 50$ per bitcoin. In that case LTC is still undervalued because 50/4 =12.5. This means that LTC has to go UP while BTC has to go down. Now one could say that there are other alt coins that consume some of the value but then again there aren't many to be taken seriously currently.

CC = Crypto Currency

[naphto]

CC = credit card

[Jozzaboy]

CC = credit card

Hate to be THAT guy but...
CC in this case is Crypto currency. Check the first post.

[kresu]

The 24 hour volume for LTC is well over 1M USD right now (MORE than the 24 hour volume of BTC/USD at mtgox) and the LTC economy seems healthier than ever

Well, it is not an economy sign at all.
It should read "the LTC speculation seems more vivid than ever".
EDIT: the economy is: merchants and services using LTC as a payment method.

[jubalix]

The 24 hour volume for LTC is well over 1M USD right now (MORE than the 24 hour volume of BTC/USD at mtgox) and the LTC economy seems healthier than ever

Well, it is not an economy sign at all.
It should read "the LTC speculation seems more vivid than ever".
EDIT: the economy is: merchants and services using LTC as a payment method.

a portion of it is true, some say it support about $30 BTC price.

the inchoate future potential is a large part of the value, not wanting to miss out on this, is driving the speculation and value.

CC's are better than a tele-portation system for gold

[tacotime]

The 24 hour volume for LTC is well over 1M USD right now (MORE than the 24 hour volume of BTC/USD at mtgox) and the LTC economy seems healthier than ever

Well, it is not an economy sign at all.
It should read "the LTC speculation seems more vivid than ever".
EDIT: the economy is: merchants and services using LTC as a payment method.

The Litecoin economy is people buying or selling Litecoin, speculators included.  You don't walk into Safeway and trade 5 gold doubloons for a crate of steaks, but people are still trading gold speculatively every day and it has definite value.

In the meantime, the price looks set to explode as people bail out of Bitcoin for the time being.


ltc-charts.com

[N12]

Yes, go and buy the scamcoin valued at 13% of Bitcoin already. This cannot possibly go wrong.

[Jozzaboy]

Yes, go and buy the scamcoin valued at 13% of Bitcoin already. This cannot possibly go wrong.

Hey, if you can catch the right side of it, you can make a tasty 20% profit between LTC and BTC in 24 hours. Managed that today.

Long term sustainability of 3 dollars per LTC.... nah. We might see a spike to $5 if it makes it to MTGox but too risky.

[tacotime]

Yes, go and buy the scamcoin valued at 13% of Bitcoin already. This cannot possibly go wrong.

By market cap LTC only has 5.5% of Bitcoin's total value.

[N12]

Yes, go and buy the scamcoin valued at 13% of Bitcoin already. This cannot possibly go wrong.

By market cap LTC only has 5.5% of Bitcoin's total value.

Longer term, Litecoin has 4x the money supply, so I'm calculating with that in mind.

Sure, you can play the Greater Fool Theory. But I wouldn't add it and sit on it for months or years.