Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test

[796]

Hi there,
Thanks for your attention and sorry for my awkward English.
You can buy at around $75 in batches.

Thanks, looks like $75 has held up so far, might join in on the wall later today.

always consider the possibility this could be manipulation for you to set up bids for their selloff. not saying it is, could be bad karma for him to take advantage of people like that so he might choose not to, but always consider the worst. 796 saying he's working for his "boss" is why I'm watching out for the possibility.

Otherwise, 796, I don't mean to be offensive at all. Thank you for offering your input.

these information all comes from Zhurong's blog who is one of the CEO of 796 Exchange(the boss).
he is willing to share his views.
and i'm in charge of putting his forecast here.
thanks.

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[796]

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

I was kind of bored and I like your posts, so I translated into native English. I hope you're not offended.


During the recent continuous slump, I pointed out the price for June 24th was approaching $100 and gave a breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 21st, I reminded readers to be cautious of the sudden short momentum and offered $80-85 as a relatively safe buy area. Additionally, I reminded readers to watch out for selling into the correction if the correction stayed low and weak. I offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have noticed my assumption that if there is no sign of a rally at the low during a correction, then there will be increased price slump risks for selling short. Thus, we can come up with a useful view - "sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn't do so". Of course, you require lots of experience to know when it's "supposed" to go up or down; as well as needing to understand the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price should drop around $15 during period of short selling, and on both occasions that came true within 24 hours. I believe that I'm the only person to predict that move with such accuracy. In addition, that forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st.
PS: Based on that forecast, I think the bounces which began at $80 may have come to an end. I think that I should share this information with more people, instead of just releasing it to my investors in the QQ Group. For that reason, I've created a microblog account to share my views on the Bitcoin price.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group (a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided taking losses during the recent slump, and a lot of them have taken much profit from selling short. I keep emphasising that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally, or it will inevitably cost you both your time and your confidence. Also, I think lots of overly optimistic Bitcoiners are now feeling under pressure, and are beginning to fear looking at the bitcoin price. However, as long as you think rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow

Thanks logik.
I had just read your translation. Good job!
haha, thanks a lot.
English is really hard for me.

[vokain]

Hi there,
Thanks for your attention and sorry for my awkward English.
You can buy at around $75 in batches.

Thanks, looks like $75 has held up so far, might join in on the wall later today.

always consider the possibility this could be manipulation for you to set up bids for their selloff. not saying it is, could be bad karma for him to take advantage of people like that so he might choose not to, but always consider the worst. 796 saying he's working for his "boss" is why I'm watching out for the possibility.

Otherwise, 796, I don't mean to be offensive at all. Thank you for offering your input.

these information all comes from Zhurong's blog who is one of the CEO of 796 Exchange(the boss).
he is willing to share his views.
and i'm in charge of putting his forecast here.
thanks.

why would he employ you to share his views? If the forecast turns out to be right, good public relations for his exchange? Of what benefit does he have getting good PR from English-speaking users on an internet forum?

[796]

Hi there,
Thanks for your attention and sorry for my awkward English.
You can buy at around $75 in batches.

Thanks, looks like $75 has held up so far, might join in on the wall later today.

always consider the possibility this could be manipulation for you to set up bids for their selloff. not saying it is, could be bad karma for him to take advantage of people like that so he might choose not to, but always consider the worst. 796 saying he's working for his "boss" is why I'm watching out for the possibility.

Otherwise, 796, I don't mean to be offensive at all. Thank you for offering your input.

these information all comes from Zhurong's blog who is one of the CEO of 796 Exchange(the boss).
he is willing to share his views.
and i'm in charge of putting his forecast here.
thanks.

why would he employ you to share his views? If the forecast turns out to be right, good public relations for his exchange? Of what benefit does he have getting good PR from English-speaking users on an internet forum?

hi there,
796 Exchange was established about 1 month ago and I'm one of the employees.
it was the first Bitcoin futures exchange in China.
so far we have attracted many investors.
at first, Mr. Zhu just released his view in our official QQ Group and those forecast fulfilled perfectly since our operation.
and then he realized he should share his view with more people.
besides, we plan to promote our exchange among foreign investors and we did it from here to let more people know about 796 Exchange.
it is just the initial plan.

have a nice day.

[vokain]

Thank you for your answer 796.

[True___Blue]

Fantastic thread. Quality analysis is much appreciated. I plan on following this thread closely. Thanks.

[796]

Hi everybody,

Bitcoin price has continue to slump in the recent few days. From the trend chart, although it touched 72$ yesterday, there’s no obvious big trading. Thus, we can’t be so sure that 72$ is the lows in these days. We may wait and see.

According to Bitcoin trend chart, the trend should be like this : it is hard to drop in a short term; there should be a period of slow rise which may get to $85-$87; then there will be another bottom process; after that, it will go upward; and then we can predict whether it’s fall in a relay or the beginning of a new wave of rise depending on the long and short strength. We can check the market trend and always remember: sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn't do so.

Thanks!

[796]

Thank you for your answer 796.

 

[796]

Thank you for your answer 796.

  you're welcome,buddy.

[796]

Fantastic thread. Quality analysis is much appreciated. I plan on following this thread closely. Thanks.

Thanks for your support.
Take care. 

[796]

Hi everybody,

In the previous post I mentioned that there was no obvious big trading following yesterday’s slump. We can see the previous several bottom features from the chart, in which all accompanying with substantially increased volume and slump. Thus, we still need to observe to decide whether 72$ is the lows in the near future. Since there is no sign of much rise or arbitrage, I had transferred the last Bitcoins worth tens of thousands dollars from MTGOX to BTTC and then sold them all this morning.



Thanks!

[wopwop]

You don't need to draw lines and arrows in charts to undestand this is a bear trend

What mr 796 is doing is just predicting a forward-moving car that it will continue to move forward. Then people here think he's some kind of oracle

796 knows this. He's trying to build reputation though and this is an easy way since generally sheeple here are not very bright

[796]

You don't need to draw lines and arrows in charts to undestand this is a bear trend

What mr 796 is doing is just predicting a forward-moving car that it will continue to move forward. Then people here think he's some kind of oracle

he's just sharing his view with more friends.

[__/]

Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.

I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....

Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.

Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?  

Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?

Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).

[Jaroslaw]

oh doh another copy-cat

[796]

Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.

I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....

Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.

You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?

Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?  

Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?

Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).

Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)

[796]

From Bitcoin trend chart, we will see that the price goes up slowly but down abruptly in earlier period while it’s been down steadily in the recent month. No matter what brings the circumstances, investors are under great pressure. There’s an obvious sign of speculative funds outflow. When it dropped to 72$ yesterday and bounces appeared, there should be uptrend resistance after correction at 80$. However, no rise shows when it’s supposed so and long strength can’t gather.

[__/]

Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.

I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....

Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.

You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?

Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?  

Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?

Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).

Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)

Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest.  And illegal, I might add.

[smoothie]

So I need to create an account in order to see your analysis. Sorry not worth my time.

[796]

Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.

I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....

Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.

You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?

Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?  

Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?

Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).

Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)

Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest.  And illegal, I might add.

All the trading is carried out among investors.
The platform is not involved and the profit comes from trading commission.
If you think the price is abnormal, you may play arbitrage.