A new ASIC is coming

[SirWizz]

Considering the producing foundry, producing partners, technology used (65 nm) and order size 1.05 million units I have to say that if the screencap is accurate (and I believe it to be) we could be taking about at least 8.000 TH.

No matter the end user this is a damn significant amount of possible hash rate. Of course, more info would babe great.

I do however not believe anyone needs to worry about a 51% attack. With only projected hash rate by year end from KNC, BFL (without ramping up production speed), Bitfury and already sold Avalon chips + ASICMINER we are prob looking at a network hash OVER 20 Petahash by year end anyway. And I consider that a low estimate.

Could you perhaps elaborate on that?   I don't know how that can be a low estimate, the estimates I have seen so far are 1000 TH by fall and maybe 2000-3000 TH by year end. To me 20000 TH sounds a bit much, not on the low end. But perhaps I have less information than you do on the quantities of chips that are supposed to be out there in the wild by year end.

You do the math:

100s of KNC 400 gh/s miners
At least 340 Bitfury 120 gh/s miners
1000s of 5-60 gh/s BFL miners
100+ orders of 10k Avalon 300mh/s chips

If at least 50% of these miners/chips deliver.. Well... You can see for yourself

Ok, Mr. Swede, let's do some math .

KNC - from what I have read recently KNC expects to have about 450 TH/s this fall.
Bitfury - 340 x 120 GH/s = 40 TH/s
BFL - 2000 x 30 GH/s (avg) = 60 TH/s
Avalon - 100 x 3 TH/s = 300 TH/s
AM - 200 TH/s?
Unknown company 1,000,000 x 300 MH/s = 300 TH/s (I assumed Avalon - level performance)

Not sure what math you have used but 20000 TH is probably not happening this year  .

[greaterninja]

And let this useless thread die

+

This sounds similar to the warning of Yifu Guo's greatest fear at Bitcoin2013;

Unown private entities...

My offer to help Team Avalon still stands.    I am here to help whoever as long as they are respectful.

What offer?  Just tell us when will you release another important announcement and let's stop this stupid game.

= and let useless forum trolls be useless forum trolls.


To SirWizz: 

Sorry man, your unknown company hash rate is way off.  Avalon chips are ~280-450 megahash/second because they are Micro lead frame, 110nm package structure.

Realistically these new chips will probably be 6-10 gigahash per chip.
65nm x 1 million chips.  Assuming they are more efficient than BFL's current chips.  

To be conservative lets assume they are 5Ghash/second.
1,000,000 x 5ghash/sec = 5 million gigahash/sec  -->  5000thash/sec

Realistically Thash will be 7,000 to 10,000 thash/second for this unknown entity.

[SirWizz]

Well if that's the case we might as well pack it in right now... 

[RoadStress]

What if the chip is actually Avalon v2? Could be possible...

[SirWizz]

What if the chip is actually Avalon v2? Could be possible...

Who cares what the chip is, if someone has 50 times the hashing power of the entire current network in a couple of months from now? (and that's just one entity) It will take forever to get a ROI on your shiny new ASIC at those difficulties.

[reactor]

Uh, if someone gets 50x the current hashing power under one roof, game over.   The geeks pack up their bit-money and go back to their development jobs, ventures move on to other investments to boost.

[Bitcoinorama]

I'm hoping this is all FUD, anyone with that large an order without the intention to distribute it far and wide amongst individual private resale will have wasted their and everybody else's time in the Bitcoin project.

Anyone with that kind of monies would have thought the consequences of their actions through. There not about to piss all their investment away. If they are smart they will do something healthy for the Bitcoin ecosystem and all it's believers...

[SirWizz]

I'm hoping this is all FUD, anyone with that large an order without the intention to distribute it far and wide amongst individual private resale will have wasted their and everybody else's time in the Bitcoin project.

Anyone with that kind of monies would have thought the consequences of their actions through. There not about to piss all their investment away. If they are smart they will do something healthy for the Bitcoin ecosystem and all it's believers...

Bitcoinorama, I can tell you're a bit of an idealist, just like me hehe. Still, I do not believe that whoever has placed that massive order has the best interest of the Bitcoin ecosystem at heart (on the contrary actually). It doesn't even matter if they mine with all of them or sell the units. The increase in difficulty alone would virtually obsolete the investment regular Joe made in his ASIC. And to stay in the game you'll pretty much HAVE to buy from them or invest in them.

We'll have to wait for more information and see how things will unfold... and call me crazy but I do not have a good feeling about this.

[Bitcoinorama]

I'm hoping this is all FUD, anyone with that large an order without the intention to distribute it far and wide amongst individual private resale will have wasted their and everybody else's time in the Bitcoin project.

Anyone with that kind of monies would have thought the consequences of their actions through. There not about to piss all their investment away. If they are smart they will do something healthy for the Bitcoin ecosystem and all it's believers...

Bitcoinorama, I can tell you're a bit of an idealist, just like me hehe. Still, I do not believe that whoever has placed that massive order has the best interest of the Bitcoin ecosystem at heart (on the contrary actually). It doesn't even matter if they mine with all of them or sell the units. The increase in difficulty alone would virtually obsolete the investment regular Joe made in his ASIC. And to stay in the game you'll pretty much HAVE to buy from them or invest in them.

We'll have to wait for more information and see how things will unfold... and call me crazy but I do not have a good feeling about this.

Idealist, perhaps, but the contrary would be investment suicide on their part. They cannot introduce that amount of hashrate for one entity and expect a healthy longterm BTC value, their competitors and individual miners would just move on negating any chance for therm to succeed. It would be pointless...

[greaterninja]

  From a strategic and normal perspective it's best to mine on hardware and sell hardware devices simultaneously.  Asicminer, avalon, bfl do this because it maximizes their revenue.  I will assume this other company will do the same.

[Loredo]

Bitcoinorama, I can tell you're a bit of an idealist, just like me hehe. Still, I do not believe that whoever has placed that massive order has the best interest of the Bitcoin ecosystem at heart (on the contrary actually). It doesn't even matter if they mine with all of them or sell the units. The increase in difficulty alone would virtually obsolete the investment regular Joe made in his ASIC. And to stay in the game you'll pretty much HAVE to buy from them or invest in them.

We'll have to wait for more information and see how things will unfold... and call me crazy but I do not have a good feeling about this.

I've made this point several times over the last weeks; there has been a high probability that something like this will happen.  

The reason I'm skeptical about this is that, to maximize sales, one would have all the ducks in the row; ready to take payment, ready to ship, specs and/or boards tied down at the instant of the announcement.  This is too flaky for entities who have a couple million dollars in the deal.

Unless this guy is a whistle-blower / leaker...

[ProfMac]

This sounds similar to the warning of Yifu Guo's greatest fear at Bitcoin2013;

Unown private entities...

My offer to help Team Avalon still stands.    I am here to help whoever as long as they are respectful.

I endeavor to be respectful always.  Alas, I don't know of any particular help to request.

[ProfMac]

Is it just me or is a thread where this user can Boost thier activity count by slapping in ALOT of posts that contain nothing other than
RESERVED
Seriously theres like ten of them

There should be a minimum limit on the post length.  Say 80 characters.
Anything less than that should be deleted.  If someone posts repeated "reserved" words, jail him for a year at his current membership level.

Another option is to remove the membership and activity levels all together.  They are pointless.  Most people know who the "Hero Members" are.
Limit number of posts per day to say 5 for all users is another thing that can be used to limit pointless posts.

Charge BTC 0.001 per posting.

[greaterninja]

Is it just me or is a thread where this user can Boost thier activity count by slapping in ALOT of posts that contain nothing other than
RESERVED
Seriously theres like ten of them

There should be a minimum limit on the post length.  Say 80 characters.
Anything less than that should be deleted.  If someone posts repeated "reserved" words, jail him for a year at his current membership level.

Another option is to remove the membership and activity levels all together.  They are pointless.  Most people know who the "Hero Members" are.
Limit number of posts per day to say 5 for all users is another thing that can be used to limit pointless posts.

Charge BTC 0.001 per posting.

Reserved was put on the other posts to replace information.   You trolls can think whatever you wish but your thinking was off.  The reality of the game is I do not need to explain myself to those who criticize and doubt as they really don't do anything useful themselves.