ASICS killing BTC ?

[Skitzzo]

I will admit I was initially attracted to BTC by the idea of mining and making some extra money.

With more and more ASIC miners coming on board, the barrier of entry will likely increase for a short period of time when big miners still cost a lot, but there are enough of them out there to greatly increase the difficulty levels.

However, as ASIC rigs continue to drop in price, they will also be devaluing their predecessors to some degree. At some point we'll be back to a lot of people having access to similarly powered setups just like what I've read about the pre-ASIC mining days.

If all of those suppositions are correct, I wouldn't expect ASICs to kill BTC, I would expect them to usher in the transition away from video card mining to ASIC mining which will be a period of great flux during which some large entities may be able to make significant sums of money.

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[LeslieDilley]

ASICs were anticipated as part of the 'Bitcoin Whitepaper' - Bitcoin itself is a mechanism designed to facilitate efficiency on numerous levels, computing efficiency being one of them.

Given ASICs supremacy in both Total Processing Power & Processing Power per Watt, ASICs in a sense are a metaphorical representation of Bitcoin fulfilling its computational efficiency potential.

Any statements otherwise must then be fallacious.

-Johnny
www.americandatafarms.com

[RationalSpeculator]

I think Mr Kaminsky really screwed up in this prediction. Miners have way too much invested to switch from the current function, it will be nearly impossible to build up an alternative mining infrastructure that can be as secure as the current one quickly enough to just switch to it, and besides, Gavin has absolutely no interest in switching the algorithm, either. He specifically said so when asked about that article.

Kaminsky's prediction can come to pass by LTC simply superseding BTC as the dominant coin, and that is in fact the most likely scenario for that to happen due to resistance of BTC developers and BTC miners to consider any change in hash protocol.

Personally I believe the current dynamic we are seeing in the BTC price decline has nothing to do with government regulation, Gox or ASICs, its just the final stage of the deflation of the bubble and it will bottom out in the $10 to $30 range following a curve much like that after July 2011.  But unlike 2011 BTC now has a competitor that is showing independent and stable valuation, that presents a huge risk that BTC won't rebound in value as people have other coins to put their money in.

Now you might argue that their are all these SHA dedicated ASICs in existence now that can't move into LTC so they will just keep mining BTC and all those ASICS have sooooo many more hashes and are more 'secure' then LTC.  This is correct on the surface but irrelevant, coins derive their exchange value from the number of USD that people are offering for the coins divided by the number of coins offered for sale, past expenditure of 'Work' are irrelevant.  If the number of dollars that want LTC exceeds the dollars that want BTC then LTC will be worth more and will be the 'growth' coin.

Already total LTC mining revenue is 27% of BTCs, and if LTC maintains it's current price and BTC declines to the $20 point then the two coins would be at equal mining revenue.  If we see any kind of significant increase in LTC value following the highly anticipated (and hyped) inclusion of it on Gox then the cross over can occur with very little further decline in BTC valuation.  Their is also likely a zero-sum game here too, the customer base for BTC and LTC are nearly identical and it's likely that their is a limited pool of dollars and that a boom in one coin will always result in a slump in others.  A very large boom in LTC could cause such a drying up of dollars offered for BTC that it collapses down to levels that are effectively fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.

This is the first argument that makes sense to me in favor of LTC. Thanks for sharing

[RationalSpeculator]

fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.

Do you think, in that case, LTC could be percieved as a viable long term investment?

No, or at least it will be massively reduced compared to the expectations that have been built around BTC.  If BTC ever ceases to be be a viable long term investment then it takes every other coin with it because it will be obvius the LTC would also have a successor some day.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it takes several such successions until people finally realize that the value in crypto-currency is the CODE not the COINS and we are going to see a succession of innovative coins that gradually supplant each other on technical merits, much as we treat every other piece of software ever made.

Very original thinking. Must sit and think.

[LeslieDilley]

fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.

Do you think, in that case, LTC could be percieved as a viable long term investment?

No, or at least it will be massively reduced compared to the expectations that have been built around BTC.  If BTC ever ceases to be be a viable long term investment then it takes every other coin with it because it will be obvius the LTC would also have a successor some day.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it takes several such successions until people finally realize that the value in crypto-currency is the CODE not the COINS and we are going to see a succession of innovative coins that gradually supplant each other on technical merits, much as we treat every other piece of software ever made.

Very original thinking. Must sit and think.

Hardware 'volume' is essentially the proxy for the value of a particular Cryptocurrency [inherent given the proof-of-work designation that pays out the currency].

Although you are certainly correct that the technical merit of Cryptocurrencies will increase over time [as both a byproduct of further mathematical precision and the need to protect the network against more sophisticated hardware - Graphene microprocessors & Spintronics systems], the initial investments into the hardware must be made to made a singular cryptocurrency network valuable to the supposed users of said network.

a classic chicken & the egg problem emerges from this relatively straightforward logic.


Needless to say... I certainly feel that the number of viable & valuable cryptocurrencies will grow over time. But in the mean time - Bitcoin's first mover advantage and Litecoin's relatively-more-sophisticated mathematical approach [along with both's relatively large hardware base over other newcomer coins] have successfully entrenched them for the longer-term.

-Johnny
www.americandatafarms.com

[silencesilence]

ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people

[ajareselde]

ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people

Take a look at LTC trade volume, and then say it is dead.

You bet on sh*tcoin , then flame old and prooven coins, you must be realy incentive.

[justusranvier]

fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.

Do you think, in that case, LTC could be percieved as a viable long term investment?

No, or at least it will be massively reduced compared to the expectations that have been built around BTC.  If BTC ever ceases to be be a viable long term investment then it takes every other coin with it because it will be obvius the LTC would also have a successor some day.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it takes several such successions until people finally realize that the value in crypto-currency is the CODE not the COINS and we are going to see a succession of innovative coins that gradually supplant each other on technical merits, much as we treat every other piece of software ever made.

Very original thinking. Must sit and think.

How is this thesis working out so far?

[sidhujag]

ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people

Bahaha I must do the opposite as you. Can I short vertcoin somehow? Someone make a ltc/vtc exhange its a winning ticket!

[notbatman]

X11 is the new Scrypt.

[Bitcoin Magazine]

u are true when u say that.  but who is gonna buy "dark" coin over "lite"

light always wins.  us hould know that

[Soros Shorts]

Yeah, damn those Greedy Miners and their Evil ASICs. The Decentralized Commoner should be able to mine coins with their GPU and get their share of the wealth .

Guess the solution to this would be to design a custom algorithm for some shit coin that nobody wants and no one would bother to design an ASIC for it.

[notbatman]

DarkCoin? I'm mining ConspiracyCoin on my GPUs, even made a profit today 33.001 coins in 5 hours.  

EDIT:

66.001 in 23.9 hours, the ASIC conspiracy has failed to keep me from turning a profit!

Go on make an X11 ASIC... assholes

[spainful]

This needs up voting...badly. People need to understand that the path they are on, Bitcoin has already walked.

[franky1]

nah, we having mining until 2140

No. We have mining as long as Bitcoin exists. If mining were to stop, Bitcoin would no longer function.

You seem to be confusing the block subsidies with mining itself.

mining is the concept of creating new bitcoins as a reward for auditing transactions.. like bringing new gold into circulation is mining but counting and verifying gold hoards and movements is auditing holdings....

the mix up is that people call the auditing, mining. because their brains care more about getting the new coin then the auditing part, and because these 2 processes are combined, they lazily just call it mining.

but in 2140 no new coins will come into circulation.. although the protocol for making blocks wont change (auditing).. an analogy would be more closer to only auditing after 2140,, not mining.. because after 2140 il repeat.. no new coins will be added to circulation.

so the term would be auditing the blockchain, or administering* the blockchain.. or something along those lines.. but who cares about 2140 we will all be dead and buried by then..

*hmmm administering.. admining.. could catch on

as for the topic question

video killed the radio star (its a song)
dvd killed the video star
blueray killed the dvd star

GPU killed the CPU miner
FPGA killed the GPU miner
ASIC killed the FPGA miner..

every couple years we will hear someone complain that new tech killed old tech...

my only reply is .. tech evolves, move on, deal with it. dont get stuck in the past

[TopherB]

ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people

Take a look at LTC trade volume, and then say it is dead.

You bet on sh*tcoin , then flame old and prooven coins, you must be realy incentive.

Which ironically is how this whole thread started.