I get the impression this forum turned bearish, contra indicator?

[RationalSpeculator]

Is it just me projecting or do you also notice a big shift here? Only several weeks ago half of the forum was still openly bullish. Now I can barely find a bullish post. Sure the winkle ETF many like, but very few seem to think this will push up the price in the short term. Compare that to the chinese bitcoin documentary that was used by most that 'price will go up up up'.

I'm bearish myself but seeing so many agree I think chances become higher that it will actually go up the coming weeks.

[omgitsmehehe]

Yup, most people who post here in speculation and talk the talk now have shit running down the side of their legs.

[culexevilman]

Is it just me projecting or do you also notice a big shift here? Only a few weeks ago half of the forum was still bullish. Now I can barely find a bullish post. Sure the winkle ETF many like, but none seem to think this will push up the price in the short term. Compare that to the chinese bitcoin documentary that was used by many that 'price will go up up up'.

I'm bearish myself but I get scared seeing so many agree.

short term we are going down, but hey look at the bright side just stash your coins and come back in two years...

[marvinrouge]

If we are all bearish, maybe we are all out.

So the price can't decline anymore.

BUY BUY BUY !!!  

[N12]

During the bubble, at what point did the forum sentiment turn bullish and how long did it last? Just like indicators moving to overbought/oversold confirm a trending phase, so does sentiment and it can last a longer time.

That's apart from my impression that I still see lots of bulls, they're just very quiet lately.

[RationalSpeculator]

If we are all bearish, maybe we are all out.

So the price can't decline anymore.

BUY BUY BUY !!!  

lol that would certainly explain why price goes up after everyone turns bearish

[RationalSpeculator]

During the bubble, at what point did the forum sentiment turn bullish and how long did it last? Just like indicators moving to overbought/oversold confirm a trending phase, so does sentiment and it can last a longer time.

That's apart from my impression that I still see lots of bulls, they're just very quiet lately.

Thanks for your validation. I agree the bearish trend can continue. Many times the masses are right too. The shift is remarkable though.

[solex]

If we are all bearish, maybe we are all out.

So the price can't decline anymore.

BUY BUY BUY !!!  

lol that would certainly explain why price goes up after everyone turns bearish

Aha, indeed, this is the secret of market turning points.

[BitcoinAshley]

Yes, it is a contra indicator, but long-term. I think there needs to be a little more blood shed before you can really call a bottom based on sentiment (i.e. "once EVERYONE agrees it's going down, it will start going up again.")

Right now a lot of people are still hoping for a sudden trend reversal.

[N12]

BitcoinAshley converted to double digitism?

[Endgame]

Forum sentiment for the most part just follows the trend. Right now trend is down so bears rule. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[Birdy]

Forum sentiment for the most part just follows the trend. Right now trend is down so bears rule. I wouldn't read too much into it.

yes, it's a lagging indicator.
Price goes down...dozens of bears appear and spam the forum.
Price goes up...suddenly bulls everywhere.

[EuroTrash]

That's apart from my impression that I still see lots of bulls, they're just very quiet lately.

Yep. +1
Even this one is a bullish thread.
Hope isn't dead yet. Not enough for a reversal. 

[oda.krell]

I've never^[1] identified as either bull or bear. In fact, I entirely avoid thinking in those terms when I perform the analysis that precedes my trading decisions. Practically, I concentrate completely on the short (a day or two) to short/medium term (a week, max), and it's working quite well for me so far. As a result, I have no qualified opinion on whether we're going down to 25, or the deflation/correction stops at 79. Which obviously makes it kind of hard to say whether you're a bull or a bear.

That said, if you would have asked me in, say, late May where I would speculate the 2013 bottom to be, I probably would have responded with a substantially higher value than I would answer with now. That's kind of bearish, I suppose.


^[1]"never" is kind of a big word, I've only been around here since, surprise!, April.

[Hyena]

As a bull I must say it sure is rainy these days.. However, because I'm a long-term bull I'm already moving fiat to Bitstamp and expect to buy cheap coins during the next weeks. I will panic buy at 50$ but because everyone thinks so I'm probably going to start buying at 70$. Last time I bought BTC the price just got to 30$ and it made me a nice profit in the next months especially because I gradually spent the coins on pills...I mean vitamins instead of holding them.

[BitcoinAshley]

BitcoinAshley converted to double digitism?

I've been talking the talk for a while, yes, but my trading position has been bearish for the last month, and recently mega-bear. I am committed to making money whether price is going down or up, and right now that means being mostly in fiat, as much as I hate fiat. Can't argue with reality.

With movement like this, it's not hard to call short-term bottoms and tops, and if you guess wrong, you just have to wait a week and you're right again.

[Ultraviolet]

You'd have to be retarded to be short-term bearish right now. Weeks of negligible trading volume coupled with long periods of no green candles and any mini-rally that tries to start getting killed by a dump is absolutely not bullish.

Bitcoin needs new money to come to the market. Failing that, $200 will never, ever be seen again, and neither will $150. If it's as bad as it looks right now, $100 won't be seen for a long period of time either.

[mgio]

Is it just me projecting or do you also notice a big shift here? Only several weeks ago half of the forum was still openly bullish. Now I can barely find a bullish post. Sure the winkle ETF many like, but very few seem to think this will push up the price in the short term. Compare that to the chinese bitcoin documentary that was used by most that 'price will go up up up'.

I'm bearish myself but seeing so many agree I think chances become higher that it will actually go up the coming weeks.

Here is how it works. When the price is going up the people on this forum are bullish, when the price is going down, people are bearish.

It's as simple as that. Nobody here ever makes a prediction worth a damn.

[oda.krell]

It's as simple as that. Nobody here ever makes a prediction worth a damn.

Really? I'm sure you just have bookmarked the wrong forum members.

[MAbtc]

I still see bulls. But I think they tend to quiet down a bit as the price continues to drop despite their positions. I still see Jozzaboy and ShroomsKit around.  

It's as simple as that. Nobody here ever makes a prediction worth a damn.

Really? I'm sure you just have bookmarked the wrong forum members.

This!