Why you should worry this is a bubble

[cryptocrusher]

I think for as long as we tell people that bitcoin will make them rich however there will always be uncertainty, once bitcoin becomes stable it should not be advertised as a way to become rich but a way to store value and earn a modest growth such as gold is. If something is promised as high returns it inherently always has a high level of risk attached to it.

Yes. I seriously get pissed off by people painting Bitcoin off as being something that will allow others to make big profits overnight. These people don't know what they are talking about, and at the same time spread their idiotic way of thinking amongst other newbies taking everything for granted easily. Bitcoin's technological aspects are the first one should explain to others in easy to understand language. If people at some point decide to invest in Bitcoin after that, then it's their choice, but you at least explained the very basics of what Bitcoin actually is, and that's all we can do, otherwise we'll be infested with greedy noobs not knowing anything.

Precisely that, we want to educate people about bitcoins benefits and uses to really allow bitcoin to grow and bitcoin the ultimate vision that many people have. If we simply brand it as an asset with ridiculously high returns everyone will treat it as such and sooner or later it will get dumped hard.

My question is why is that if there's something good and stable no one would ever bother to advertised it? Instead they will report those who aren't that smelling or something, is this the kind of a business they want? And my thought of is that maybe they don't really advertising it since it doesn't give them any in return which is not useful to them even if they can help everyone with their powers to advertise it. I think that's why there's a shiller because if there's a competition they tend to show themselves and makes the crowd wonder their thoughts.

You're probably right in the sense that if it is stable then what use is it for most people to promote it, they do not gain anything themselves. Bitcoin is easy to push right now because the more people we get to buy in to it the higher the price will go. But as I said above, if we continue on that trend bitcoin will only suffer in the long term.

[Shendy23]

I can see this as two perspective.  First if it will bubble and vanish. It means after it reach the bigger value of the bitcoin it will return to no value at all. In this, yes! I will be worry that my investment will become zero. However I am looking at the second perspective of mine and that is if it will bubble and burst because the one controlling it not to make the price goes up so sudden cannot control it anymore. So the price will be beyond what we are expecting it will be just after a year or two. Well, this is just my opinion.

[jaysabi]

He may be correct but at the same time it does not even matter. As the last point states it will come crashing down but it won't go to zero it will go back after that. Bitcoin is here to stay people need to understand this. Also do take a look at the biggest bubble in the world which is real estate right now. 500 trillion is a lot for one market but you don't hear mainstream media talking about this bubble...I wonder why that is

Well just as a musing, I would say it's because bubbles aren't defined by notional value, they're defined by valuation and a disconnectedness from their fundamentals. So the size of the housing market in absolute dollars doesn't tell you anything about whether or not it's a bubble. We only knew 2008 was a bubble by taking housing prices and comparing them to other metrics that showed prices were getting out of hand.

Also, if he is correct, that is all that matters. You're so in the bubble mentality you don't even realize how irrational your expectations are. When bubbles pop, they don't automatically go back up some undetermined amount of time later. That's the point of the bubble popping. If this bubble pops, you may not see these price levels again until years down the line, when inflation has increased the price of all assets. At that point, you're not back to where you are now, you're worse off because everything in the economy is more expensive.

[jaysabi]

Another Nobel laureate came out against Bitcoin.

We're all familiar with the banking CEOs (Jamie Dimon) who have been critical of bitcoin, and it's easy for people to dismiss their criticism as coming from a party with interests they view to be directly threatened by Bitcoin. (I don't entirely buy that argument, but nonetheless...) What should be more concerning is the people who have won Nobel prizes in economics voicing concern over the sustainability of Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz said bitcoin should be outlawed. (Reckless statement IMO.)

However, today, none other than Robert Shiller said that Bitcoin was destined to crash, and this is a much bigger deal because of who Robert Shiller is and his work. Robert Shiller's line of economic work deals specifically with the prediction of asset prices and the inefficiency of markets. Mr. Shiller's work lead to the establishment of the Case-Shiller Index which is used to value home prices in the US, and Mr. Shiller famously warned about the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble before anyone recognized they were bubbles. Here he is in 2005 warning that housing was a bubble detached from economic reality, and that it was destine to crash:  https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264.

Here's one key passage where he is talking about the housing bubble, and see if this doesn't sound exactly like Bitcoin right now:



So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin:

"Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down."

This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen.

So? He directly states he does not know when this is going to stop, so his prediction as always is as good as anyone else's prediction, we all know that once a bubble starts at some point it needs to burst, to have a Nobel prize his predictions are awfully vague, besides to stock market of 1929 eventually recovered, bitcoin is not going to disappear so for all of us that are holders we do not care if the bubble burst or not.

HA! Robert Shiller's prediction is worth quite a bit more than "anyone else's". You don't win a Nobel for making predictions though, you make it for the economic field work you do. In this case, because of his line of work (the study of how people's inability to accurately value assets leads to inefficient markets and bubbles), his predictions about an asset being a bubble is noteworthy. The key isn't to predict when a bubble is going to pop, it's to identify when something is a bubble. If you know something is a bubble, and you know it's inevitable that all bubble's burst, it makes sense to conserve your capital now. You may think you're missing upside by selling early, but thinking you can identify when the bubble will burst and get out beforehand is a fool's game. You'll lose much more on the burst bubble than by selling before it burst. Also, thinking that because a bubble burst, it has to go back up eventually is going to burn a lot of people. There's no such certainty in economics or the real world.

[rocketbits]

I think any one with half a brain can see that bitcoin is beginning to grow exponentially and knows that can not continue, the question really is though is are we approaching the top now or will it be at 50k, 100k or even higher? Even for those who do not believe we are in a bubble they should still fear that we are as it will keep them sensible.

This is the important question , i like to think we are almost at the peak. But i didn't see btc rising this high that fast. People just need to accept that there is a big correction coming soon but when that is nobody knows.

Total awareness of the community might not increase the panic selling scenarios when bitcoin price will suddenly go down. Or even have a worst thing happen to bitcoin in the coming days. Though they call bitcoin is a bubble but it won't mind by the investors, because all they have in their mind is that they'll gonna earned from investing  with bitcoin.

While many will probably still have the attitude that bitcoin will continue to rise, it doesn't take a lot of money or bitcoin to begin a big sell-off. As more and more people start to accept a crash is coming they'll be trying to preempt it. Alternatively it could lead to decreased accumulation for a while and then we will see bitcoin restored to a more stable situation. Of course the easy thing to realise is while enough people still believe bitcoin will ensure them a profit then there won't be any crashes, someone who bought at 5k and fears losing their profits can simply sell to someone investing for the first time at 15k and aiming for 50k.

Most of the people are worried about its future. I think here in crypto currency market everything is bubble. In case if the bubble burst 1bitcoin will be always 1bitcoin. Due to the recent changes in the prices of bit it seems like risky and that’s why people are worried about it.

Even they are earning a lot of money from this but still they have fear of this bubble bursting. Bitcoin is in short very effective bubble for investors.

[reynilynedago]

Another Nobel laureate came out against Bitcoin.

We're all familiar with the banking CEOs (Jamie Dimon) who have been critical of bitcoin, and it's easy for people to dismiss their criticism as coming from a party with interests they view to be directly threatened by Bitcoin. (I don't entirely buy that argument, but nonetheless...) What should be more concerning is the people who have won Nobel prizes in economics voicing concern over the sustainability of Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz said bitcoin should be outlawed. (Reckless statement IMO.)

However, today, none other than Robert Shiller said that Bitcoin was destined to crash, and this is a much bigger deal because of who Robert Shiller is and his work. Robert Shiller's line of economic work deals specifically with the prediction of asset prices and the inefficiency of markets. Mr. Shiller's work lead to the establishment of the Case-Shiller Index which is used to value home prices in the US, and Mr. Shiller famously warned about the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble before anyone recognized they were bubbles. Here he is in 2005 warning that housing was a bubble detached from economic reality, and that it was destine to crash:  https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264.

Here's one key passage where he is talking about the housing bubble, and see if this doesn't sound exactly like Bitcoin right now:



So yesterday, Shiller said this exactly about Bitcoin:

"Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true. ... I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down."

This is one guy who when he says something is a bubble, people ought to listen.

dont worry bitcoin is not a bubble if you see the number of volume of the market in bitcoin do you think that bitcoin is like a bubble ? so we dont need to be panic even the value of bitcoin will down and if you believe in bitcoin i think you will get more money in the future .

[jaysabi]

i think he is partly right.

if he is talking about housing bubbles, they have happened many times since the 1920's.

if bitcoin bubble bursts, it will just blow right back up again but like housing, if you own one it is still there after the bubble bursts. its just the "value" that bursts.

1 bitcoin now will still be 1 bitcoin if the bubble bursts

"Value" is the whole point. Bitcoins and everything else in the economy are priced in dollars, so if the price of bitcoin crashes, you still have 1 bitcoin, but you have significantly less "value" in your asset and can trade it for significantly less dollars or goods/services. The fact that everyone believes a bubble popping is a temporary hiccup and the price will go right back up are the perfect illustration that this is a bubble. The only way you're going to learn unfortunately is to live through a bubble bursting, and then coming to the slow realization that your expectations of a recovery are not going to be met.

[Colt22]

I do not worry that it is a bubble and I have a strong believe that it is the real price increase of bitcoin. Because the demand of bitcoin is increased much higher and the use of bitcoin is also increasing with a faster speed so if we are seeing that much increase in the price then it is a real increase and we cannot deny that fact and have to trust on that.

[CryptoKyddie]

This is no bubble. Things will go up and down, but crypto is here to stay!

[OriginTrain]

Why would nobel prize winners be any different to other FUDers? The investment technique that led to the 2008 financial crises caused its creator to win a nobel prize.. Obama won a nobel peace prize. I wouldn't give much legitimacy to the institute personally.

Blockchain will lead to de-centralization and deflation, and trustless monetary policy. Bitcoin is the reason for that, and the first mover advantage will not be forgotten. Its brand is forever in everyone's memory and will be the only coin 10,000 years from now that's written in history books. It literally does not matter even if the Pope condemns bitcoin.. this is technology that will drastically revolutionize our future.

[julzcoinbit]

I do not worry that it is a bubble and I have a strong believe that it is the real price increase of bitcoin. Because the demand of bitcoin is increased much higher and the use of bitcoin is also increasing with a faster speed so if we are seeing that much increase in the price then it is a real increase and we cannot deny that fact and have to trust on that.

Same here as your point of view dude, likewise I didn't worry about the bubble up on bitcoin because I believed that it will overcome the possible obstacles that will encountered. This kind of situation was happened on several years that why it may cause a panic selling of every bitcoin that they have. Bitcoin already proven that can survived from the down fall situation which attracts by many people and gets interested on bitcoin. Soon, in the future since its value increases rapidly for just short period of time for sure it could be probably happened again and we didn't know that it is already reach $25,000. 👍 👍

[Kiweikoo]

Well, nothing has been raised, so we'll wait here for now. We all understand that this is a bubble that is artificially inflated, but we all remain faithful to it and expect an even greater price for our common joy.

I’m always skeptical on whether bitcoin will go above $25000, cause I have seen lots of economists say that Bitcoin won’t cross $25000 and some people commenting here also said the same thing. I’m quite confused, and I’m being very careful this time. I will still keep calm and watch what happens when the price hits at $20,000 or $25k.

[mobilestrike]

i think he is partly right.

if he is talking about housing bubbles, they have happened many times since the 1920's.

if bitcoin bubble bursts, it will just blow right back up again but like housing, if you own one it is still there after the bubble bursts. its just the "value" that bursts.

1 bitcoin now will still be 1 bitcoin if the bubble bursts

"Value" is the whole point. Bitcoins and everything else in the economy are priced in dollars, so if the price of bitcoin crashes, you still have 1 bitcoin, but you have significantly less "value" in your asset and can trade it for significantly less dollars or goods/services. The fact that everyone believes a bubble popping is a temporary hiccup and the price will go right back up are the perfect illustration that this is a bubble. The only way you're going to learn unfortunately is to live through a bubble bursting, and then coming to the slow realization that your expectations of a recovery are not going to be met.

It is true that the “value” is the real point that describes that is it bubble of not. As we all knows that the value of Bitcoin is always going towards its high points. Anybody who says that Bitcoin is a bubble, they can observe the price and popularity chart of Bitcoin which is constantly growing. There are some points of price down but that no too much in numbers. The overall output of Bitcoin’s price is high and high. That proves that Bitcoin is not a bubble so no needs to worry for anyone.

[Omega Weapon]

There is absolutely no reason to worry that bitcoin or crypto currencies are a bubble and nobel prizes from the system are not worth 5 cents. I remind you that Obama received the nobel prize for peace while he initiated several wars and that tell us everything about how realistic those nobel prizes are! The opposite is the case! The fiat currency system is a bubble and will end like it has ended in 1929!

Isn´t to be against or in favor of the theories of those economists who also won a nobel, they hold their theories but only one thing can prove them true or discard them: and that is the time, another thing the peoples that came out against BTC and who have been critical of it they have every right to do it, but they also sometimes make mistakes.

Those economist are paid to distribute the same old theory that everything is OK and that we must obey the government when anyone that has his eyes open can tell there are many things wrong with the way the economic system works and that politicians do not want to correct because they are benefited by it the same way as bankers, bitcoin is a game changer and they do not like it one bit.

[jaysabi]

Why would nobel prize winners be any different to other FUDers? The investment technique that led to the 2008 financial crises caused its creator to win a nobel prize.. Obama won a nobel peace prize. I wouldn't give much legitimacy to the institute personally.

Blockchain will lead to de-centralization and deflation, and trustless monetary policy. Bitcoin is the reason for that, and the first mover advantage will not be forgotten. Its brand is forever in everyone's memory and will be the only coin 10,000 years from now that's written in history books. It literally does not matter even if the Pope condemns bitcoin.. this is technology that will drastically revolutionize our future.

It's pretty easy for someone with a superficial understanding of something to dismiss it as insignificant as you've done with the Nobel prize. The question as to why a Nobel prize winner in economics is different from random commenters on the internet is laughable in its simple-mindedness. Even your presentation of deflation as a benefit of crypto shows a basic non-understanding of economics, as no credible economist will ever say deflation is a goal of monetary or national policy because of its tendency to disincentivze economic activity and cause recessions as economies stagnate and decline.

[BossMacko]

I worried about it last week that i sold all my Bitcoin for 14k$ because i am expecting that it will not proceed to 15k$ because of the things that i read like price correction etc etc, but looking at the price now i regret that i sold my Bitcoin anyways from now on i will not worry of the price, i will just hold and hold and hold until we reach that 21m limit.

[anhhung409]

I've heard a lot of bad news about Bitcoin and its downfall. However, I still find Bitcoin grows and there is no sign of disappearance. But up to now, as more and more alerts are coming from celebrities in the currency sector, I gradually become fearful and begin to pull out of Bitcoin. Instead, I invest in many other Altcoin because I believe the digital money market will never go away.

[ModaFuka1994]

after hearing a lot of people said that Bitcoin is just a bubble, for now I don't believe anyone that will say that Bitcoin is just a bubble again ). Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, the future of this world, it's not bubble, they said that just because they want Bitcoin holder and traders afraid about Bitcoin then sell Bitcoin with lower price to cut the lost and they will have chance to buy Bitcoin with lower price )).

[rcticoin]

when feel depressed and helpless, fear something and do not know must how, close eye and imagine a bubble foam pink is in the top of your head.

[BillCoin]

I agree that the price of bitcoin has been increasing too much at the last few months, it is not healthy for the coin, and true bitcoin believers should be worried about it.

If the price of bitcoin will burst with all the people inside, it may cause a lot of people to lose faith in bitcoin and may prevent it from being a global currency as we all drum about.