Holders Unite!

[Rampion]

Well,  seeing that the price dropped substantially and then bounced back slightly, it could have been smart to sell and buy back like many have done, or are doing.  Of course, how do we really know for a fact this will happen?  Also, I was out of town all weekend, with very little wireless service hiking in the mountains so I did not have much of a choice but to hold.

Still, for some of us it is the best choice, if we really do not wan the stress of the roller coaster ride.

Hopefully we are back to triple digits soon enough.  It seems like it is taking a while though.

We are in a downtrend, bubble deflation, so you should expect the price to go down.

     I really don't feel that it is accurate to call this a bubble. A bubble is when an asset class is overvalued through greed. Bitcoin is not overvalued- if people understood and could calculate its true value, it is massively undervalued. This is a combination of profit taking and loss of investor confidence. If people understood either how overvalued the fiat they are trading their bitcoin for is or how undervalued bitcoin is there would be a massive correction. I have been watching the markets off and on for 15 years, have studied the global economic system in university, and travelled enough to have a faint inkling of the potential here, so when I heard about bitcoin for the first time I realized the efficiency gains resulting from bitcoin as a concept will eventually be measured in the trillions of dollars (todays inflation adjusted).
     I understand, not everyone has either my educational background or belief in the wealth creating potential of unimpeded capital flows- we all have our specializations, so I would say we are just seeing the curve of people understanding bitcoin and understanding that it will not be stopped. In 10 years where we are now will still look like the flat, bottom part of the "S" adoption curve on the chart, inshaAllah. This is not a bubble deflation, it is not even a bear trap, it's just a blip.
      Sorry, I've been mulling that one for a while, had to get it off my chest...

So, what we had in 2011 wasn't a bubble neither?

Yes it was, and this one is a bubble too, Bitcoin price went up because people hoped it would go higher, and a speculative mania cycle was triggered when we broke ATH in March. As soon as the price started to go down, people sells and the price goes down even further, which is the classic bubble deflation process.

Speculation has always drove Bitcoin price, its an asset very sensitive to speculation by very design. But during bubble phases, speculation goes nuts, clearly overshadowing the demand of long to mid term investors and "users" (mostly Silk Road and ASIC miners buying hardware). When the peak is reached, speculators to their thing, selling to realize profits or cut losses. And as BTC is 99% speculation, there you have the bubble deflating until final capitulation is reached, and the cycle starts over.

[tutkarz]

Well,  seeing that the price dropped substantially and then bounced back slightly, it could have been smart to sell and buy back like many have done, or are doing.  Of course, how do we really know for a fact this will happen?  Also, I was out of town all weekend, with very little wireless service hiking in the mountains so I did not have much of a choice but to hold.

Still, for some of us it is the best choice, if we really do not wan the stress of the roller coaster ride.

Hopefully we are back to triple digits soon enough.  It seems like it is taking a while though.

We are in a downtrend, bubble deflation, so you should expect the price to go down.

     I really don't feel that it is accurate to call this a bubble. A bubble is when an asset class is overvalued through greed. Bitcoin is not overvalued- if people understood and could calculate its true value, it is massively undervalued. This is a combination of profit taking and loss of investor confidence. If people understood either how overvalued the fiat they are trading their bitcoin for is or how undervalued bitcoin is there would be a massive correction. I have been watching the markets off and on for 15 years, have studied the global economic system in university, and travelled enough to have a faint inkling of the potential here, so when I heard about bitcoin for the first time I realized the efficiency gains resulting from bitcoin as a concept will eventually be measured in the trillions of dollars (todays inflation adjusted).
     I understand, not everyone has either my educational background or belief in the wealth creating potential of unimpeded capital flows- we all have our specializations, so I would say we are just seeing the curve of people understanding bitcoin and understanding that it will not be stopped. In 10 years where we are now will still look like the flat, bottom part of the "S" adoption curve on the chart, inshaAllah. This is not a bubble deflation, it is not even a bear trap, it's just a blip.
      Sorry, I've been mulling that one for a while, had to get it off my chest...

this is exactly what i think and i don't even consider myself an expert in economy or finances. +1

[tutkarz]

Well,  seeing that the price dropped substantially and then bounced back slightly, it could have been smart to sell and buy back like many have done, or are doing.  Of course, how do we really know for a fact this will happen?  Also, I was out of town all weekend, with very little wireless service hiking in the mountains so I did not have much of a choice but to hold.

Still, for some of us it is the best choice, if we really do not wan the stress of the roller coaster ride.

Hopefully we are back to triple digits soon enough.  It seems like it is taking a while though.

We are in a downtrend, bubble deflation, so you should expect the price to go down.

     I really don't feel that it is accurate to call this a bubble. A bubble is when an asset class is overvalued through greed. Bitcoin is not overvalued- if people understood and could calculate its true value, it is massively undervalued. This is a combination of profit taking and loss of investor confidence. If people understood either how overvalued the fiat they are trading their bitcoin for is or how undervalued bitcoin is there would be a massive correction. I have been watching the markets off and on for 15 years, have studied the global economic system in university, and travelled enough to have a faint inkling of the potential here, so when I heard about bitcoin for the first time I realized the efficiency gains resulting from bitcoin as a concept will eventually be measured in the trillions of dollars (todays inflation adjusted).
     I understand, not everyone has either my educational background or belief in the wealth creating potential of unimpeded capital flows- we all have our specializations, so I would say we are just seeing the curve of people understanding bitcoin and understanding that it will not be stopped. In 10 years where we are now will still look like the flat, bottom part of the "S" adoption curve on the chart, inshaAllah. This is not a bubble deflation, it is not even a bear trap, it's just a blip.
      Sorry, I've been mulling that one for a while, had to get it off my chest...

So, what we had in 2011 wasn't a bubble neither?

Yes it was, and this one is a bubble too, Bitcoin price went up because people hoped it would go higher, and a speculative mania cycle was triggered when we broke ATH in March. As soon as the price started to go down, people sells and the price goes down even further, which is the classic bubble deflation process.

Speculation has always drove Bitcoin price, its an asset very sensitive to speculation by very design. But during bubble phases, speculation goes nuts, clearly overshadowing the demand of long to mid term investors and "users" (mostly Silk Road and ASIC miners buying hardware). When the peak is reached, speculators to their thing, selling to realize profits or cut losses. And as BTC is 99% speculation, there you have the bubble deflating until final capitulation is reached, and the cycle starts over.

the problem with your thinking is that nobody know the real value of bitcoin. and to call something to be a bubble you have to know value of something and the price have to be higher than its value. how then can you say for sure that something is in bubble state if you dont know its real value? Maybe bitcoin is undervalued all the time? Then how you will call it? underbubble?

[Rampion]

Well,  seeing that the price dropped substantially and then bounced back slightly, it could have been smart to sell and buy back like many have done, or are doing.  Of course, how do we really know for a fact this will happen?  Also, I was out of town all weekend, with very little wireless service hiking in the mountains so I did not have much of a choice but to hold.

Still, for some of us it is the best choice, if we really do not wan the stress of the roller coaster ride.

Hopefully we are back to triple digits soon enough.  It seems like it is taking a while though.

We are in a downtrend, bubble deflation, so you should expect the price to go down.

     I really don't feel that it is accurate to call this a bubble. A bubble is when an asset class is overvalued through greed. Bitcoin is not overvalued- if people understood and could calculate its true value, it is massively undervalued. This is a combination of profit taking and loss of investor confidence. If people understood either how overvalued the fiat they are trading their bitcoin for is or how undervalued bitcoin is there would be a massive correction. I have been watching the markets off and on for 15 years, have studied the global economic system in university, and travelled enough to have a faint inkling of the potential here, so when I heard about bitcoin for the first time I realized the efficiency gains resulting from bitcoin as a concept will eventually be measured in the trillions of dollars (todays inflation adjusted).
     I understand, not everyone has either my educational background or belief in the wealth creating potential of unimpeded capital flows- we all have our specializations, so I would say we are just seeing the curve of people understanding bitcoin and understanding that it will not be stopped. In 10 years where we are now will still look like the flat, bottom part of the "S" adoption curve on the chart, inshaAllah. This is not a bubble deflation, it is not even a bear trap, it's just a blip.
      Sorry, I've been mulling that one for a while, had to get it off my chest...

So, what we had in 2011 wasn't a bubble neither?

Yes it was, and this one is a bubble too, Bitcoin price went up because people hoped it would go higher, and a speculative mania cycle was triggered when we broke ATH in March. As soon as the price started to go down, people sells and the price goes down even further, which is the classic bubble deflation process.

Speculation has always drove Bitcoin price, its an asset very sensitive to speculation by very design. But during bubble phases, speculation goes nuts, clearly overshadowing the demand of long to mid term investors and "users" (mostly Silk Road and ASIC miners buying hardware). When the peak is reached, speculators to their thing, selling to realize profits or cut losses. And as BTC is 99% speculation, there you have the bubble deflating until final capitulation is reached, and the cycle starts over.

the problem with your thinking is that nobody know the real value of bitcoin. and to call something to be a bubble you have to know value of something and the price have to be higher than its value. how then can you say for sure that something is in bubble state if you dont know its real value? Maybe bitcoin is undervalued all the time? Then how you will call it? underbubble?

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).

[tutkarz]

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).

sorry but how hope for price to be higher is different than investment? and yet you those two are putting in opposite camps? people are buying bitcoin treating it as investment and because others are closing its investment the price goes lower so how is that a bubble? to me its normal behaviour of unregulated stock and not a bubble.

[Rampion]

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).

sorry but how hope for price to be higher is different than investment? and yet you those two are putting in opposite camps? people are buying bitcoin treating it as investment and because others are closing its investment the price goes lower so how is that a bubble? to me its normal behaviour of unregulated stock and not a bubble.

Investors are less akin to undertake a big risk, so they ideally buy when the price is stable and plan to hold for X years until a certain goal is reached. I will give you a practical example: I invested in Bitcoin when it was at around $13, which was a price that held for a long time. Now there are no investors looking to spend money on Bitcoin, at least no "serious" investors, because they know the price is currently overvalued. As soon as Bitcoin becomes again a good investment (<$50) more money is expected to be thrown at Bitcoin.

Speculators are more gamblers, they are into high-risk, quick-profit trades, and if the gamble go wrong, they just close their position ASAP - wash, rinse and repeat.

[tutkarz]

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).

sorry but how hope for price to be higher is different than investment? and yet you those two are putting in opposite camps? people are buying bitcoin treating it as investment and because others are closing its investment the price goes lower so how is that a bubble? to me its normal behaviour of unregulated stock and not a bubble.

Investors are less akin to undertake a big risk, so they ideally buy when the price is stable and plan to hold for X years until a certain goal is reached. I will give you a practical example: I invested in Bitcoin when it was at around $13, which was a price that held for a long time. Now there are no investors looking to spend money on Bitcoin, at least no "serious" investors, because they know the price is currently overvalued. As soon as Bitcoin becomes again a good investment (<$50) more money is expected to be thrown at Bitcoin.

Speculators are more gamblers, they are into high-risk, quick-profit trades, and if the gamble go wrong, they just close their position ASAP - wash, rinse and repeat.

And what investors will do if price will never be lower than $50 because there is less bitcoins produced for example and more people wants them and those who are holding large amounts are rich already and don't need to sell their big stacks of bitcoins any time soon. Isn't it a gambling also? I don't see a difference. All i know is that you sold your coins, convinced your friends to do the same and now hoping the price will be lower so you are convincing everybody else to sell so you can buy cheaper. The problem is they might not believe you and do the opposite like they are doing now.

[__/]

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).

sorry but how hope for price to be higher is different than investment? and yet you those two are putting in opposite camps? people are buying bitcoin treating it as investment and because others are closing its investment the price goes lower so how is that a bubble? to me its normal behaviour of unregulated stock and not a bubble.

Investors are less akin to undertake a big risk, so they ideally buy when the price is stable and plan to hold for X years until a certain goal is reached. I will give you a practical example: I invested in Bitcoin when it was at around $13, which was a price that held for a long time. Now there are no investors looking to spend money on Bitcoin, at least no "serious" investors, because they know the price is currently overvalued. As soon as Bitcoin becomes again a good investment (<$50) more money is expected to be thrown at Bitcoin.

Speculators are more gamblers, they are into high-risk, quick-profit trades, and if the gamble go wrong, they just close their position ASAP - wash, rinse and repeat.

You start off talking about your position -- which is fine. However you then go on to make assertions about "serious" investors and what they "know". Do you have data on this?

[Rampion]

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).

sorry but how hope for price to be higher is different than investment? and yet you those two are putting in opposite camps? people are buying bitcoin treating it as investment and because others are closing its investment the price goes lower so how is that a bubble? to me its normal behaviour of unregulated stock and not a bubble.

Investors are less akin to undertake a big risk, so they ideally buy when the price is stable and plan to hold for X years until a certain goal is reached. I will give you a practical example: I invested in Bitcoin when it was at around $13, which was a price that held for a long time. Now there are no investors looking to spend money on Bitcoin, at least no "serious" investors, because they know the price is currently overvalued. As soon as Bitcoin becomes again a good investment (<$50) more money is expected to be thrown at Bitcoin.

Speculators are more gamblers, they are into high-risk, quick-profit trades, and if the gamble go wrong, they just close their position ASAP - wash, rinse and repeat.

And what investors will do if price will never be lower than $50 because there is less bitcoins produced for example and more people wants them and those who are holding large amounts are rich already and don't need to sell their big stacks of bitcoins any time soon. Isn't it a gambling also? I don't see a difference. All i know is that you sold your coins, convinced your friends to do the same and now hoping the price will be lower so you are convincing everybody else to sell so you can buy cheaper. The problem is they might not believe you and do the opposite like they are doing now.

I sold part of my coins. I have two very different approaches: I have a trading position (that now is 95% fiat), plus some BTC in which I invested many months ago (which are in a paper wallet and won't be moving for at least a couple of years).

[semaforo]

   I am not really an expert on anything, but I've got some unique perspective by virtue of travel and study.
I just don't think that bitcoins price movement should be compared to, say, the housing bubble. Bubbles are often fuelled by loose monetary policy and excessive debt. With housing, developers take out loans to build more houses than there are people who need houses, assuming the market will continue to grow. Banks loan more money so that people buy the houses and the market keeps going up up up. At some point people are overborrowed and the rate slows. Everybody who has been building and loaning panics as they realize the growth is unsustainable, leading to a panic and crash. There is no chance that someone is going to find a revolutionary new purpose for houses. The market is simply saturated and there is no mechanism that can increase demand, except buying bad loans and dropping interest rates to close to nothing, so people can buy even more houses.           

      Bubbles happen when demand is saturated and supply overtakes demand. Depending on the velocity this could lead to a huge correction as people panic.

   You are correct that supply or sellers are  currently more abundant than demand or sellers. But the market for bitcoin is far from saturated. I think a more accurate metaphor for bitcoin is a mushroom, and we are still in the mycellial growth stage. This means bitcoin is still underground and the growth slows or speeds up depending on moisture, temperature, ph of substrate, nutrient content and so forth. When the mycellial mass has reached a critical point then the fruiting will kick in and suddenly it will appear on the world stage and 8 year old kids in Tajikistan will know about bitcoin.

   Really just semantics, but I am just saying that bitcoin has a lot of potential aside from current supply and demand and that can be effectively demonstrated, whereas the value of the thousands of empty condos in Las Vegas is a little harder to demonstrate, which is why I don't think  oth should be lumped in the same category.

[halfawake]

I'm holding too.  I'd be taking a loss if I sold, so I'm holding and hoping the price goes back up again.

[SOSLOVE868]

I am getting sick of seeing all of these threads of people panicking!  I have not even been into BTC that long, only a few months, and I can already see that this is just typical for the history of BTC.

What we know:  We are still very early in this.  BTC is volatile.  It goes up, it goes down, it goes up again and plateaus at a higher point.

So what is the big deal everyone?

I for one am holding.  I will turn off my computer this weekend (I am going out of town anyways) and hopefully return to some normal boring activity with BTC around $90 to $100 next week.

Call me crazy but holding could just be the smart move in all of this.

Me too ,I can't understand why people are so essay to get panic...the only reason that BITCOIN price loss is the result of manipulating.
If people really needs fiats, they can sell their coin over tradehill , as the price of tradehill is link up with MT.GOX, No reason to sell big quantity over MT.GOX and causing loss of their wealth, thereby this just result of manipulating ,and those people were not really leaved BTC ,they were waiting for other panic and collecting benefit on it

[tutkarz]

I am getting sick of seeing all of these threads of people panicking!  I have not even been into BTC that long, only a few months, and I can already see that this is just typical for the history of BTC.

What we know:  We are still very early in this.  BTC is volatile.  It goes up, it goes down, it goes up again and plateaus at a higher point.

So what is the big deal everyone?

I for one am holding.  I will turn off my computer this weekend (I am going out of town anyways) and hopefully return to some normal boring activity with BTC around $90 to $100 next week.

Call me crazy but holding could just be the smart move in all of this.

Me too ,I can't understand why people are so essay to get panic...the only reason that BITCOIN price loss is the result of manipulating.
If people really needs fiats, they can sell their coin over tradehill , as the price of tradehill is link up with MT.GOX, No reason to sell big quantity over MT.GOX and causing loss of their wealth, thereby this just result of manipulating ,and those people were not really leaved BTC ,they were waiting for other panic and collecting benefit on it

greed. bitcoin price is in a very long uptrend from the begining and nobody knows where it will end and yet some people want more causing harm to others in the process. its just lame.

[SOSLOVE868]

I am getting sick of seeing all of these threads of people panicking!  I have not even been into BTC that long, only a few months, and I can already see that this is just typical for the history of BTC.

What we know:  We are still very early in this.  BTC is volatile.  It goes up, it goes down, it goes up again and plateaus at a higher point.

So what is the big deal everyone?

I for one am holding.  I will turn off my computer this weekend (I am going out of town anyways) and hopefully return to some normal boring activity with BTC around $90 to $100 next week.

Call me crazy but holding could just be the smart move in all of this.

Me too ,I can't understand why people are so essay to get panic...the only reason that BITCOIN price loss is the result of manipulating.
If people really needs fiats, they can sell their coin over tradehill , as the price of tradehill is link up with MT.GOX, No reason to sell big quantity over MT.GOX and causing loss of their wealth, thereby this just result of manipulating ,and those people were not really leaved BTC ,they were waiting for other panic and collecting benefit on it

greed. bitcoin price is in a very long uptrend from the begining and nobody knows where it will end and yet some people want more causing harm to others in the process. its just lame.

Yes ,Hold it on....do not become victim of manipulating ....

[master-P]

   I am not really an expert on anything, but I've got some unique perspective by virtue of travel and study.
I just don't think that bitcoins price movement should be compared to, say, the housing bubble. Bubbles are often fuelled by loose monetary policy and excessive debt. With housing, developers take out loans to build more houses than there are people who need houses, assuming the market will continue to grow. Banks loan more money so that people buy the houses and the market keeps going up up up. At some point people are overborrowed and the rate slows. Everybody who has been building and loaning panics as they realize the growth is unsustainable, leading to a panic and crash. There is no chance that someone is going to find a revolutionary new purpose for houses. The market is simply saturated and there is no mechanism that can increase demand, except buying bad loans and dropping interest rates to close to nothing, so people can buy even more houses.           

      Bubbles happen when demand is saturated and supply overtakes demand. Depending on the velocity this could lead to a huge correction as people panic.

   You are correct that supply or sellers are  currently more abundant than demand or sellers. But the market for bitcoin is far from saturated. I think a more accurate metaphor for bitcoin is a mushroom, and we are still in the mycellial growth stage. This means bitcoin is still underground and the growth slows or speeds up depending on moisture, temperature, ph of substrate, nutrient content and so forth. When the mycellial mass has reached a critical point then the fruiting will kick in and suddenly it will appear on the world stage and 8 year old kids in Tajikistan will know about bitcoin.

   Really just semantics, but I am just saying that bitcoin has a lot of potential aside from current supply and demand and that can be effectively demonstrated, whereas the value of the thousands of empty condos in Las Vegas is a little harder to demonstrate, which is why I don't think  oth should be lumped in the same category.

+1 Bitcoin's revolutionary potential as a currency hasn't been realized yet. You explained it in an excellent way

[Pokerfan]

Do whatever it takes to increase the amount of BTC you have! I'm not good at speculating so I just buy when the price drops.

[silverston]

I will hold for as long as I can. Bitcoin - our future!

[BitChick]

It seems to be bouncing back now.   

Of course it would have been nice to make money during the dips, but I am pitiful at day trading.  Probably because I really do believe in Bitcoin and the last thing I want is to be left with cash in my account after selling BTC and then not having any coin when the price jumps again, which seems to be what happens to me.  So better to just sit out the bumps, for me anyways.

[uMMcQxCWELNzkt]

I am holding onto my coins as I feel Bitcoin is the best alternative to the FIAT system. I feel there is vast amounts of potential and we are just at the beginning, unfortunately we do live in a world full of scammers, days traders, idiots, greedy/ignorant people and so on who care more about making quick money and throwing the idea away once they are done with it.The fact that we consider ~£50 as doing bad in 2013 I feel shows significant growth. The media storms seems to have died down and lots of us still have our coins.