Denial is fading, fear is approaching

[niothor]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what? 

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...

About your technical arguments , what happend to that magic 82 support  you've been talking for a few weeks?

[Its About Sharing]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what? 

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...

About your technical arguments , what happend to that magic 82 support  you've been talking for a few weeks?

I've mentioned that number many times. I never said magical. As a matter of fact I stated in MANY posts that I am not (and did not) play it for a bounce.
I am clear, this down move is incredibly dangerous to trade on (as my Clark moody beeps on the sells like crazy).

Again, please stop taking statements out of context. That is manipulative. And if you start searching, don't take pieces of my posts out of context either. We'll leave that to the States and intelligence agencies...

[niothor]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what? 

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...

About your technical arguments , what happend to that magic 82 support  you've been talking for a few weeks?

I've mentioned that number many times. I never said magical. As a matter of fact I stated in MANY posts that I am not (and did not) play it for a bounce.
I am clear, this down move is incredibly dangerous to trade on (as my Clark moody beeps on the sells like crazy).

Again, please stop taking statements out of context. That is manipulative. And if you start searching, don't take pieces of my posts out of context either. We'll leave that to the States and intelligence agencies...

I hope you realize I teasing you.
Usually when you make an asumption you have to say , around, like , near , something like.
Yet you went and 82.82.82.

I was waiting for the 82 thing not to happen just to tease you so you won't precise values again

[wopwop]

we are already returning to normal we just ended the capitulation phase

[Jaroslaw]

we are going into fear

[wopwop]

we are going into fear

i guess we as professional traders can agree to disagree on this technical analysis point

[Jaroslaw]

we will see after i finish my dump

[ehoffman]

Well, from the look of it, I think a lot of bulls are still stuck in denial phase, and they will be all the way to the bottom

I praise for the day the price stop falling, and start to raise, and those bulls say 'I told ya!' when the price double from 10$ to 20$. 

[Rampion]

Well, from the look of it, I think a lot of bulls are still stuck in denial phase, and they will be all the way to the bottom

I praise for the day the price stop falling, and start to raise, and those bulls say 'I told ya!' when the price double from 10$ to 20$.  

Yes, indeed this thread is a perfect example of how much denial is still in the air. But I would add that all this aggression against bearish analysis is also an indicator that fear is starting to spread.

When I said "this bubble needs to pop" before the crash from $266 to $50, people just mocked me.

When I said "bottom will probably be around $50ish" after the April 10th crash, people just replied "keep dreaming about cheap coins"

Now they seem to be getting nervous and edgy, that means something.

[wopwop]

we will see after i finish my dump

don't forget to wipe and flush

[Its About Sharing]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what? 

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...

About your technical arguments , what happend to that magic 82 support  you've been talking for a few weeks?

I've mentioned that number many times. I never said magical. As a matter of fact I stated in MANY posts that I am not (and did not) play it for a bounce.
I am clear, this down move is incredibly dangerous to trade on (as my Clark moody beeps on the sells like crazy).

Again, please stop taking statements out of context. That is manipulative. And if you start searching, don't take pieces of my posts out of context either. We'll leave that to the States and intelligence agencies...

I hope you realize I teasing you.
Usually when you make an asumption you have to say , around, like , near , something like.
Yet you went and 82.82.82.

I was waiting for the 82 thing not to happen just to tease you so you won't precise values again

My apologies (sort of), be more clear! I don't remember all usernames ("good guys" and "bad") ehehehe
 

Watch $68, $60 next.

[oda.krell]

[long, extremely insightful comment]

Thanks for posting. I agree enthusiastically on (almost) all points. I also very much appreciate that, despite your trust in sound TA (which I generally share), you also acknowledge that any sufficiently strong good news will throw out all the (technical) predictions out of the window, at least for a while (I've been saying something similar in several different threads in the past).

There's one minor? maybe not so minor? point of criticism. One of your arguments appeals to the intuition that all the large volume trades are sales, while the heavy lifting of buying is done by the small guys (I'm paraphrasing here), and then another comment following a similar line.

I would like to point out that this is a somewhat naive form of volume-based analysis you're doing there. A bit as if I would look at a candlestick chart (which you said is more your specialty), and state "there are three green candles in a row, that must mean we're in an uptrend".

More specifically, the situation you describe could also be the result of large holders of bitcoin selling en masse, then rebuying, in smaller portions, at a lower price. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case, but your argument seemed like an appeal to intuition (about volume), and that alone is probably not up to the task of analysing the market. See for example chodpaba's posts of the past days for a volume based argument why the current downtrend isn't sustainable, and decide for yourself if you see any merit in his statements (I more often than not do).

[Its About Sharing]

[long, extremely insightful comment]

Thanks for posting. I agree enthusiastically on (almost) all points. I also very much appreciate that, despite your trust in sound TA (which I generally share), you also acknowledge that any sufficiently strong good news will throw out all the (technical) predictions out of the window, at least for a while (I've been saying something similar in several different threads in the past).

There's one minor? maybe not so minor? point of criticism. One of your arguments appeals to the intuition that all the large volume trades are sales, while the heavy lifting of buying is done by the small guys (I'm paraphrasing here), and then another comment following a similar line.

I would like to point out that this is a somewhat naive form of volume-based analysis you're doing there. A bit as if I would look at a candlestick chart (which you said is more your specialty), and state "there are three green candles in a row, that must mean we're in an uptrend".

More specifically, the situation you describe could also be the result of large holders of bitcoin selling en masse, then rebuying, in smaller portions, at a lower price. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case, but your argument seemed like an appeal to intuition (about volume), and that alone is probably not up to the task of analysing the market. See for example chodpaba's posts of the past days for a volume based argument why the current downtrend isn't sustainable, and decide for yourself if you see any merit in his statements (I more often than not do).

Thanks for the comment (and honesty).

Regarding the volume of trades, maybe you misunderstood or missed my point - I am watching the buys and sales go through on clarkmoody or http://trading.i286.org/ and I notice the size of the "blocks" are generally MUCH LARGER on the sells. This is purely observational, the intuitive part, if I can call it that, is that "I get the feeling" those large block sizes are early adopters and miners. But even then, it makes sense. I mean who can afford to buy 100, 200, 1000 shares? That is a lot of money in a small small market. Let's say I can afford to buy 100 shares, if I sold I would probably not do it at around the same time as other guys selling those large blocks, which is what I see happening. And the buys (as you say being smaller in block size) are no where nears as much as the larger blocks, that is why we are going down. That part is purely volume, but I was talking block size.

I might be mistaken as I am no expert with "watching the tape" and no one else has commented on this that I have seen. But it does fit my theory. 

[oda.krell]

[long, extremely insightful comment]

Thanks for posting. I agree enthusiastically on (almost) all points. I also very much appreciate that, despite your trust in sound TA (which I generally share), you also acknowledge that any sufficiently strong good news will throw out all the (technical) predictions out of the window, at least for a while (I've been saying something similar in several different threads in the past).

There's one minor? maybe not so minor? point of criticism. One of your arguments appeals to the intuition that all the large volume trades are sales, while the heavy lifting of buying is done by the small guys (I'm paraphrasing here), and then another comment following a similar line.

I would like to point out that this is a somewhat naive form of volume-based analysis you're doing there. A bit as if I would look at a candlestick chart (which you said is more your specialty), and state "there are three green candles in a row, that must mean we're in an uptrend".

More specifically, the situation you describe could also be the result of large holders of bitcoin selling en masse, then rebuying, in smaller portions, at a lower price. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case, but your argument seemed like an appeal to intuition (about volume), and that alone is probably not up to the task of analysing the market. See for example chodpaba's posts of the past days for a volume based argument why the current downtrend isn't sustainable, and decide for yourself if you see any merit in his statements (I more often than not do).

Thanks for the comment (and honesty).

Regarding the volume of trades, maybe you misunderstood or missed my point - I am watching the buys and sales go through on clarkmoody or http://trading.i286.org/ and I notice the size of the "blocks" are generally MUCH LARGER on the sells. This is purely observational, the intuitive part, if I can call it that, is that "I get the feeling" those large block sizes are early adopters and miners. But even then, it makes sense. I mean who can afford to buy 100, 200, 1000 shares? That is a lot of money in a small small market. Let's say I can afford to buy 100 shares, if I sold I would probably not do it at around the same time as other guys selling those large blocks, which is what I see happening. And the buys (as you say being smaller in block size) are no where nears as much as the larger blocks, that is why we are going down. That part is purely volume, but I was talking block size.

I might be mistaken as I am no expert with "watching the tape" and no one else has commented on this that I have seen. But it does fit my theory. 

I understand your point, as far as I can tell. unless, when you say "block", you're actually talking about the technical concept. then I didn't understand your argument

Assuming you're talking about size of individuals trades (yes?), your argument makes some intuitive sense. Agreed. So does "three green candles in a row, up we gooooo!". My point was that what you see (small chunks for buying, large chunks for selling) could also be the result of a/several not-completely-stupid large holders covering their tracks. If that's the case, then the immediate observation you described is not able to support your conclusion ("confidence in bitcoin is eroding"). There are more sophisticated methods to gauge if volume and supply/demand supports or contradicts the current trend. I'm not an expert in them, all I was saying is, your volume based argument sticks out somewhat as being slightly, sorry for calling it that, naive, compared to the rest of your points.

[RationalSpeculator]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

1. Have you been following the tape? I have watched it for weeks (on and off) now and something has stood out to me. The size of the sell orders are usually much much larger than the buy orders. This tells me common Joes (like me and probably you) are doing the buying, while large holders are doing the selling. Is this not INCREDIBLY alarming to you? Have you even checked this?

Hi IAS,

I believe your observation is correct that the sells come from large early adopters and the buys are smaller common Joes. However, I'm not sure that this needs to be alarming. If bitcoin were to succeed in mainstream adoption a - massive - distribution from few large to many small holders will need to have happened (in contrast to traditional stock & commodity markets). Assuming large holders will try to buy back the same amount of coins they are dumping today, if they would get a chance to buy them back for a considerable lower price, their plan needs to not work out for a distribution to occur. The price not going as low as they expect so that they do not succeed to buy the coins back is one scenario that would accomplish this better distribution.

Another scenario accomplishing better distribution is whales selling too early before the bubble. I can imagine this happened to a considerable amount of whales too in the bubble runup (those selling below $30 for example). However if the price goes to say $10 now, those whales will yet again get a chance to buy all those coins back.

I think bitcoin achieves this wider distribution mostly by going up much faster than even hardcore believers can imagine. Because I think a distribution cannot happen when the price goes lower than imagined as this concentrates the coins more to a few smart, courageous and cash rich investors. So I would think that with the sole exception of a few months during the 2011 crash when it was depressed, all other periods achieved wider distribution.

Many people expect the same to happen today, a crash whereby todays sellers can buy a lot more coins later. But if that would be true no wider distribution would be accomplished. And although this can happen yet again, as it did in the depression of 2011, the odds are lower rather than higher I would think.  

I could be wrong. I have no emperical proof to support my claims about when distribution is happening and when concentration is happening. Just thinking out loud.  

[BitcoinAshley]

Yes, this thread is not FUD, it is reasonable non-emotional analysis of everyone else's unreasonable emotional response to market action. That's an important part of trading. Look at the chart, this is a long-term bubble deflation, and there are emotional stages for those who invest with emotions rather than reason and careful analysis.

Don't let emotions affect you too much. Obviously they play a small part, but letting them dictate your trading to the point where you deny obvious trends - that's dangerous.

I'm never all-in or all-out, (I love bitcoin/hate fiat too much to be all-out and am too cautious to be all-in.) But right now I am "more out" than usual. A lot more. Just yesterday I sold a chunk of my remaining coins at $79, and this morning my buy order at $68 was filled on CampBX. Now we're back up - but still in a long-term downtrend, so it's time to sell those again. Yay me. Anyone can do this, it's not hard. I don't know a darned thing about TA, I just know there's a downtrend and I can make money. Even if I end up mis-calling the bottom, I've still made mad BTC in a string of successful trades on the way down. I place buy and sell orders once a day. But if I deny the downtrend, I end up getting caught in a series of emotional bull-traps all the way down.

So , if the bubble deflation is normal , and you really believed in a price drop , why did you start these last week?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245285.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=245297.0

I do what I want. If I want to make a thread claiming price will go up, I will do so. If I want to make a thread claiming price will go down, I shall do that too. 
For the last 2 months I have been selling and increasing my fiat position. However, I've only been vocally bearish for the recent past - before that I was accepting that price would go lower but I still "talked the talk" in terms of bullishness, with the occasional bearish comment. I don't feel like I should have to explain this. Listen, there are a smorgasbord of different sentiments, even now. Folks here are slowly turning bearish but you can't expect everyone to be on the exact same page. No need to overanalyze poor bitcoinashley's posts.

For the record, I'm still laughing at the idiots who think we are going down to $0.50. THAT is just as much of an inability to accept reality as the folks who think we are going back to triple digits next week.

[ChrisJ]

Deluded or high on hopium.

The thing about parasites is that they need the host to survive or else they die with it.

The rise up to $260 was fuelled by greed: put dollar in get more dollar out was the name of the game. But the price is a very poor indicator of strength because it is a reduction of sentiment, like a 3D cube casting a 2D shadow on the wall, by looking at the shadow only you will never get back to the 3 dimensional aspect.

We need to shake these weak hands out of the market, let the strong hands enter.

[Its About Sharing]

[long, extremely insightful comment]

Thanks for posting. I agree enthusiastically on (almost) all points. I also very much appreciate that, despite your trust in sound TA (which I generally share), you also acknowledge that any sufficiently strong good news will throw out all the (technical) predictions out of the window, at least for a while (I've been saying something similar in several different threads in the past).

There's one minor? maybe not so minor? point of criticism. One of your arguments appeals to the intuition that all the large volume trades are sales, while the heavy lifting of buying is done by the small guys (I'm paraphrasing here), and then another comment following a similar line.

I would like to point out that this is a somewhat naive form of volume-based analysis you're doing there. A bit as if I would look at a candlestick chart (which you said is more your specialty), and state "there are three green candles in a row, that must mean we're in an uptrend".

More specifically, the situation you describe could also be the result of large holders of bitcoin selling en masse, then rebuying, in smaller portions, at a lower price. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case, but your argument seemed like an appeal to intuition (about volume), and that alone is probably not up to the task of analysing the market. See for example chodpaba's posts of the past days for a volume based argument why the current downtrend isn't sustainable, and decide for yourself if you see any merit in his statements (I more often than not do).

Thanks for the comment (and honesty).

Regarding the volume of trades, maybe you misunderstood or missed my point - I am watching the buys and sales go through on clarkmoody or http://trading.i286.org/ and I notice the size of the "blocks" are generally MUCH LARGER on the sells. This is purely observational, the intuitive part, if I can call it that, is that "I get the feeling" those large block sizes are early adopters and miners. But even then, it makes sense. I mean who can afford to buy 100, 200, 1000 shares? That is a lot of money in a small small market. Let's say I can afford to buy 100 shares, if I sold I would probably not do it at around the same time as other guys selling those large blocks, which is what I see happening. And the buys (as you say being smaller in block size) are no where nears as much as the larger blocks, that is why we are going down. That part is purely volume, but I was talking block size.

I might be mistaken as I am no expert with "watching the tape" and no one else has commented on this that I have seen. But it does fit my theory. 

I understand your point, as far as I can tell. unless, when you say "block", you're actually talking about the technical concept. then I didn't understand your argument

Assuming you're talking about size of individuals trades (yes?), your argument makes some intuitive sense. Agreed. So does "three green candles in a row, up we gooooo!". My point was that what you see (small chunks for buying, large chunks for selling) could also be the result of a/several not-completely-stupid large holders covering their tracks. If that's the case, then the immediate observation you described is not able to support your conclusion ("confidence in bitcoin is eroding"). There are more sophisticated methods to gauge if volume and supply/demand supports or contradicts the current trend. I'm not an expert in them, all I was saying is, your volume based argument sticks out somewhat as being slightly, sorry for calling it that, naive, compared to the rest of your points.

The three candles in a row point is just 3 days though, doesn't mention volume or the like. I still am confused by your statement. Also, I listed a lot of points regarding what I look at with TA, the size of the shares being sold, to me, is still significant.

I mean what are the chances that the sell sizes would be consistently larger than the buy sizes? Why not just have more volume down than up? When you throw the larger sizes in there it adds an alarm to me as the moves down like that, can start an avalanche. Know what I mean?

So again, my argument, or rather just a part of the points I mentioned, is not volume based, it is "sell sized" (I said blocks) based.

[Its About Sharing]

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

1. Have you been following the tape? I have watched it for weeks (on and off) now and something has stood out to me. The size of the sell orders are usually much much larger than the buy orders. This tells me common Joes (like me and probably you) are doing the buying, while large holders are doing the selling. Is this not INCREDIBLY alarming to you? Have you even checked this?

Hi IAS,

I believe your observation is correct that the sells come from large early adopters and the buys are smaller common Joes. However, I'm not sure that this needs to be alarming. If bitcoin were to succeed in mainstream adoption a - massive - distribution from few large to many small holders will need to have happened (in contrast to traditional stock & commodity markets). Assuming large holders will try to buy back the same amount of coins they are dumping today, if they would get a chance to buy them back for a considerable lower price, their plan needs to not work out for a distribution to occur. The price not going as low as they expect so that they do not succeed to buy the coins back is one scenario that would accomplish this better distribution.

Another scenario accomplishing better distribution is whales selling too early before the bubble. I can imagine this happened to a considerable amount of whales too in the bubble runup (those selling below $30 for example). However if the price goes to say $10 now, those whales will yet again get a chance to buy all those coins back.

I think bitcoin achieves this wider distribution mostly by going up much faster than even hardcore believers can imagine. Because I think a distribution cannot happen when the price goes lower than imagined as this concentrates the coins more to a few smart, courageous and cash rich investors. So I would think that with the sole exception of a few months during the 2011 crash when it was depressed, all other periods achieved wider distribution.

Many people expect the same to happen today, a crash whereby todays sellers can buy a lot more coins later. But if that would be true no wider distribution would be accomplished. And although this can happen yet again, as it did in the depression of 2011, the odds are lower rather than higher I would think.  

I could be wrong. I have no emperical proof to support my claims about when distribution is happening and when concentration is happening. Just thinking out loud.  

I agree that these early adopters will by back in lower (and perhaps already have started to add some insurance). But, imagine this, if they sold shares in larger volumes, like 100, 500, 1000, etc., why would they be buying back in at 10, 20, 50, etc? That is the buying pressure I see. I think when they buy back in we will all know it.

I am not saying I know, just sharing my opinion. Clearly this area is a bit of a guessing game with lots of possibilities.

Interesting regarding the distribution. I think we have to consider that we are the early adopters ourselves. We are still pre Netscape Navigator in a sense.

Back to the thread, the fear is really going to start once we hit the 60's. $68 is a kind of key support imo as is $60. IF we slice through those, look out below. We are not so far from 50 and the volume is not anywhere near heavy yet.

[oda.krell]

[...]

The three candles in a row point is just 3 days though, doesn't mention volume or the like. I still am confused by your statement. Also, I listed a lot of points regarding what I look at with TA, the size of the shares being sold, to me, is still significant.

I mean what are the chances that the sell sizes would be consistently larger than the buy sizes? Why not just have more volume down than up? When you throw the larger sizes in there it adds an alarm to me as the moves down like that, can start an avalanche. Know what I mean?

So again, my argument, or rather just a part of the points I mentioned, is not volume based, it is "sell sized" (I said blocks) based.

I'm cutting down the quote size, hope you don't mind.

I'll try to make my points more clear...

(1) The "three green candles" comment was an analogy, and had nothing to do with volume. The idea was: imagine someone posts "I am experienced in candlestick chart analysis", and then would drop that line about 3 green candles. You would say that that's not how it works, right?

(2) Your "block" size argument rests on the fact that sell sizes are bigger than buy sizes. Since buy side and sell side of any executed trade are by definition equally large, what you mean is that sellers' positions on average are individually bigger than buyers' positions, right? (I'm honestly not trying to nitpick, just want to clearly understand your point.)

(3) If so, then my question is simply: what prevents a whale from splitting up his buy orders, but consolidating his sell orders, to create the impression you described?

(4) The order book is a prime tool for manipulation. So if (a) the order book tells you that the whales are selling while the small guys are buying, but (b) volume analysis would tell you that money flow is overwhelmingly positive (it is not, btw) then those two observations would conflict. And I would always trust (b) more than I would trust (a), because one is easy to manipulate, the other one less so.