[WEEKEND ROUND WITH JACKPOT] BitCat.ch - automated bitcoin game.

[done]

 

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[Mageant]

Short way: Assume the pot is 0. Add up all unpaid deposits up to and including your own. This is a rough estimate of how much before you're paid.

Actually I think a better way is to check how long it took for the last winnings to be paid out (difference between time bitcoin was put in and the time winnings were paid out).

For example the current last payment (to 1LYQigFJFWCamaJiPeSQotAUHxVpgC8AB6) took about 18 hours. So this will probably be the minimum time you will need to get your winnings, probably longer. The estimated duration grows exponentially until it is longer than the time left in the game. At which point you shouldn't play anymore.

[KorJax]

Someone thought the same earlier in the thread. Basically the way it works is people deposit money, then get paid out 1.2 times the amount they put in. So because of this, if someone deposits 1 BTC, then you deposit 1 BTC, they get paid out their 1.2 BTC but now there is only .8 BTC left in the pot. Over time this gap grows larger, so the people in front of you are simply paying off that larger debt. On a larger scale, imagine a total of 100 BTC has been deposited, that means there will be 20 BTC worth of deposits that are unpaid.

This is why it's a pyramid scheme/gamble, there is no way everyone can get paid out and there's going to be some losers in the end. Bernie Madoff was discovered because it went on long enough that the gap was billions of dollars large, we're just dealing with a few BTC.


If you want to figure out how much is left before you get paid you can do it the quick way or the long way:

Long way: Sum up all the deposits, then subtract the paid amounts, then subtract the 3% fee from each deposit (easy to do with spreadsheets). This will leave you with the current amount left in the pool. Then you can use that to subtract from the total BTC left before you're paid out to get the exact amount.

Short way: Assume the pot is 0. Add up all unpaid deposits up to and including your own. This is a rough estimate of how much before you're paid.

Except more and more people keep depositing into this, yet the last paid person has been the same for 24 hours or so. No one is getting payouts. I doubt it takes 30+ people, of which many are putting in 2+ BTC into this, to pay off one guy who is expected to get 2.4 BTC when everyone else behind him is already paid. AKA he is "next in line"... and has been for well over a day now. Still hasn't gotten a payout, which makes me think that this thing only pays when the owner decides it to.

[edd]

Someone thought the same earlier in the thread. Basically the way it works is people deposit money, then get paid out 1.2 times the amount they put in. So because of this, if someone deposits 1 BTC, then you deposit 1 BTC, they get paid out their 1.2 BTC but now there is only .8 BTC left in the pot. Over time this gap grows larger, so the people in front of you are simply paying off that larger debt. On a larger scale, imagine a total of 100 BTC has been deposited, that means there will be 20 BTC worth of deposits that are unpaid.

This is why it's a pyramid scheme/gamble, there is no way everyone can get paid out and there's going to be some losers in the end. Bernie Madoff was discovered because it went on long enough that the gap was billions of dollars large, we're just dealing with a few BTC.


If you want to figure out how much is left before you get paid you can do it the quick way or the long way:

Long way: Sum up all the deposits, then subtract the paid amounts, then subtract the 3% fee from each deposit (easy to do with spreadsheets). This will leave you with the current amount left in the pool. Then you can use that to subtract from the total BTC left before you're paid out to get the exact amount.

Short way: Assume the pot is 0. Add up all unpaid deposits up to and including your own. This is a rough estimate of how much before you're paid.

Except more and more people keep depositing into this, yet the last paid person has been the same for 24 hours or so. No one is getting payouts. I doubt it takes 30+ people, of which many are putting in 2+ BTC into this, to pay off one guy who is expected to get 2.4 BTC when everyone else behind him is already paid. AKA he is "next in line"... and has been for well over a day now. Still hasn't gotten a payout, which makes me think that this thing only pays when the owner decides it to.

It's an automated game. Do the math and you'll see that the pot hasn't reached 2.4 BTC yet.

[xyu]

It actually has reached 2.7177 BTC but it needs 2.88   to be paid out.

[edd]

My mistake. I was thinking of the bet, not the winnings.

[KorJax]

How hasn't the pot reached 2.8 BTC when there are dozens of people after him that have put in the same amount? That doesn't make any logical sense. There aren't any payouts happening as far as I can see, assuming the last person who was paid made the pot go back down to zero as a worst case scenario (since it obviously can't be negative).

Basically: I don't understand how the "next in line" is still waiting for the pot to reach 2.8 BTC when there are dozens of people who have put into the pot after him that more than fill the 2.8 requirement.

[adalov]

How hasn't the pot reached 2.8 BTC when there are dozens of people after him that have put in the same amount? That doesn't make any logical sense. There aren't any payouts happening as far as I can see, assuming the last person who was paid made the pot go back down to zero as a worst case scenario (since it obviously can't be negative).

Basically: I don't understand how the "next in line" is still waiting for the pot to reach 2.8 BTC when there are dozens of people who have put into the pot after him that more than fill the 2.8 requirement.

Then do the math.

Edit: Went ahead and did it for you:  https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=t33pqDmUO-yM4ggHdR_z6Lg#gid=0

[KorJax]

I'm still not understanding how the total deposits are at 222 BTC but yet according to your math there is 216 paid when there is clearly more than 6 BTC unpaid. Unless the total paid in your chart = the estimate, after fees.

As such I don't see how the pot is at 2.77 BTC with many people who have desposited into it since the last payout.

[geek-trader]

I'm still not understanding how the total deposits are at 222 BTC but yet according to your math there is 216 paid when there is clearly more than 6 BTC unpaid. Unless the total paid in your chart = the estimate, after fees.

As such I don't see how the pot is at 2.77 BTC with many people who have desposited into it since the last payout.

adalov's spreadsheet is not clear enough for you?  It's all there in black and white.

[adalov]

There is 222 total deposited. The operator takes a 3% fee, so after fees there is 216 deposited that can be used to pay people out. Of that, about 213 has been paid out, leaving 2.75 in the pot.  Where it seems you're getting confused is the same place someone was earlier in this thread by assuming the game started with the last person that was paid out.

Lets start a fake game with 0% fees.

Deposit	Paid
10	12
10	12
10	12
2	2.4
2	2.4
2	2.4
2	2.4
2
2
2
2

According to you there is more than enough to pay the next person off, but in reality there is less. This is because when a deposit is paid out, that much comes out PLUS another 20%! In order to get paid out, someone has to add that extra amount. BUT, this extra 20% "debt" keeps adding up as more deposits come in. So even though someone has been paid out, that debt still exists.

In the example given, when the second person deposits their 10 BTC, there is 8 BTC left in the pot, NOT 10BTC. So now someone has to put in 4 BTC just to pay him out. For the third person, there is only 6 BTC left in the pot. Over time that debt gets larger and larger to the point where the later players may not even pay someone out anymore.


Hopefully this clears it up a bit more.

[MtRev]

As soon as I get paid out again, I'm going back in, there still a lot of time left to cycle.

[Jimerson]

As soon as I get paid out again, I'm going back in, there still a lot of time left to cycle.

I'm going to do the same. There is quite a bit of time left. I think once we get back to the week, it will swing back up again.

[MtRev]

It's usually the people who has doubt that gets in too late. I remember people getting scared to get in since round one, and each round i got to cycle at least 3x!
:]

(fortune favors the braves!)

[KorJax]

There is 222 total deposited. The operator takes a 3% fee, so after fees there is 216 deposited that can be used to pay people out. Of that, about 213 has been paid out, leaving 2.75 in the pot.  Where it seems you're getting confused is the same place someone was earlier in this thread by assuming the game started with the last person that was paid out.

Lets start a fake game with 0% fees.

Deposit	Paid
10	12
10	12
10	12
2	2.4
2	2.4
2	2.4
2	2.4
2
2
2
2

According to you there is more than enough to pay the next person off, but in reality there is less. This is because when a deposit is paid out, that much comes out PLUS another 20%! In order to get paid out, someone has to add that extra amount. BUT, this extra 20% "debt" keeps adding up as more deposits come in. So even though someone has been paid out, that debt still exists.

In the example given, when the second person deposits their 10 BTC, there is 8 BTC left in the pot, NOT 10BTC. So now someone has to put in 4 BTC just to pay him out. For the third person, there is only 6 BTC left in the pot. Over time that debt gets larger and larger to the point where the later players may not even pay someone out anymore.


Hopefully this clears it up a bit more.

Thank you, this clears up things a bit. So the game is at the point now that because so many people have deposited, it's extremely unlikely that someone who joins now will get paid out? Just saying based on the fact it seems to be taking a full 24 hours to pay off one guy who despoited 2.4 BTC with this many people playing at this stage in the game.

[TheBitMan]

I think he should end the game and have one round every day.

[KorJax]

This needs more attention! Still have about 4-5 days left.

[MtRev]

Well, it looks harder becasue people only bidding 0.01 - 0.1 BTC.
When people start to bid the higher again, it will easily clear up.

Also, I think its a bad idea to have 2 games running at once.

[Konzul]

Well, it looks harder becasue people only bidding 0.01 - 0.1 BTC.
When people start to bid the higher again, it will easily clear up.

Also, I think its a bad idea to have 2 games running at once.

Yeah I agree. Its unfair to start the new round while the old one is still running. Diverts new people away and leave us stuck.

[KorJax]

Wow wtf...

nice knowing I lost 40usd worth of btc because this dude decided to start a new round when the last one still has several days left and with an army of people unpaid...

I'm out.