Bitcoin futures

[Lancusters]

Thanks everyone for your contributions to the subject, but so far I have not recieved any clear answer to why the bitcoin price would be affected by bitcoin futures trading (that will be settled in fiat).

Sure, the launch of bitcoin futures is good news to bitcoin, but I've seen journalists speculating in traders shorting bitcoin etc and what effect that would have on the bitcoin price.

Why would it have any effect at all?

Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

I did not understand from this analysis. Why do you think that someone will use the services of the Chicago stock Exchange. This analyst of the last century. Now there are many exchanges which will continue to trade in real time. I think the price of bitcoin will remain volatile. On the Chicago stock exchange will not be simple clients wishing to sell or buy bitcoin.

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[zarados]

I don't think so that bitcoin futures will have a big effect on bitcoin prices. I think that's just a new trading facility that will either contain only bitcoin or another crypto. The difference is, here you just buy the position, and don't get the actual bitcoin. In an exchange, you can earn a profit by selling coins whose prices are rising. but in bitcoin futures, you might be able to open 2 positions, ie buy positions, and sell positions. So you can also gain profit if the price is down. If in bitcoin futures are given multiplier/leverage functions, then this will be more like a gambling site.

[XinXan]

Thanks everyone for your contributions to the subject, but so far I have not recieved any clear answer to why the bitcoin price would be affected by bitcoin futures trading (that will be settled in fiat).

Sure, the launch of bitcoin futures is good news to bitcoin, but I've seen journalists speculating in traders shorting bitcoin etc and what effect that would have on the bitcoin price.

Why would it have any effect at all?

Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

I did not understand from this analysis. Why do you think that someone will use the services of the Chicago stock Exchange. This analyst of the last century. Now there are many exchanges which will continue to trade in real time. I think the price of bitcoin will remain volatile. On the Chicago stock exchange will not be simple clients wishing to sell or buy bitcoin.

What? The link I mentioned just analyzes what happened to silver and gold when futures were introduced and the conclusion was that nothing relevant happened, just a bit short term but long term was meaningless.

[cizatext]

Bitcoin future will be bright as speculators keep on speculating the price of bitcoin will keep on growing high. More investors will invest in bitcoin and government of many countries will adopt bitcoin as their secondary money, so to that bitcoin will sustain it market value and it exchange rate will skyrocketed to as high as $50000 in the next few years to come.

[Zuilhsa]

Bitcoin has good future. Now, many more people join bitcoin because with bitcoin many people get reward. So it can diminish unemployed person

absolutely many people are dependent upon bitcoin for their lives. It has started to decrease unemployment. Bitcoin tremendous price increase makes more investors to invest in it and the prediction of huge growth of bitcoin makes even more people to join  the forum.

[pugman]

Hi!
I'm a bit confused by all the talk about how bitcoin futures will affect bitcoin price.

As far as I understand, a futures contract is a binding agreement between 2 parties where mr A will buy an asset from mr B at a beforehand specified price and time.

The asset can be any commodity like oil etc, and are used both by producers as hedge and by speculators.

It is often possible to settle the agreement directly in cash, without buying/selling the actual underlying asset. I suspect most speculators prefer this option.

So, how will bitcoin futures work?
Will they require buying/selling bitcoin itself or will they just be settled in fiat cash?

I suspect these futures will primarily be used by speculators who probably will prefer to just settle them in cash.

So why would such a contract affect the bitcoin price at all?


I'm new so thanks for taking your time and explaing this to me

There are a lot of people who are against bitcoin, misunderstanding it to be a bubble and bull shit. How this will affect is that there'll be corruption if there is no intervention by SEC. The bulls of stock market will play with the prices like hell, trust me. To some extent there'll be a panic and bull shitting about the bubble asset- bitcoin. I feel this bitcoin future thing is just not the right thing for bitcoin.

[buwaytress]

Ok, so you don't understand why something that is being traded in fiat would have any effect in bitcoin themselves, right? I'm not an expert myself in futures but this guy did a pretty good analysis:

https://masterthecrypto.com/will-bitcoin-futures-affect-bitcoin-prices/

It seems that, for example, for gold it didn't work too well short term but eventually was meaningless so you might be right. Bitcoin might not be affected at all by it. However because bitcoin is purely speculative right now, I'm sure it will drive the price even higher, hard to tell right now because it's already climbing hard anyways.

Good analysis indeed. Futures to me are just a different way of gambling, since it's all speculation and so called hedgers buying the contracts. Why it's important for Bitcoin is that at the moment, there is no real way for investors to hedge against Bitcoin, more importantly to short it. You could count selling against alt pairs or Tether, but that's still not in fiat currency, which is how all the new futures next week will be settled.

Most investors feel this shorting ability will bring downward pressure on Bitcoin, making price a little more realistic. If they're right, I wouldn't mind. But this is the logic behind forward contracts, not the single-day self certified ones that will debut next week. They're strictly speculative, and hastily approved, rightly to the concern of the FIA expressed yesterday in an open letter to CFTC: https://fia.org/articles/open-letter-cftc-chairman-giancarlo-regarding-listing-cryptocurrency-derivatives

But as the above analysis points out, it may eventually be meaningless.

[eyesopen]

Hi!
I'm a bit confused by all the talk about how bitcoin futures will affect bitcoin price.

As far as I understand, a futures contract is a binding agreement between 2 parties where mr A will buy an asset from mr B at a beforehand specified price and time.

The asset can be any commodity like oil etc, and are used both by producers as hedge and by speculators.

It is often possible to settle the agreement directly in cash, without buying/selling the actual underlying asset. I suspect most speculators prefer this option.

So, how will bitcoin futures work?
Will they require buying/selling bitcoin itself or will they just be settled in fiat cash?

I suspect these futures will primarily be used by speculators who probably will prefer to just settle them in cash.

So why would such a contract affect the bitcoin price at all?


I'm new so thanks for taking your time and explaing this to me

In theory, futures should be backed by real bitcoin holdings which the issuers of the futures would hold, but im not sure... I think futures is just legal institutional gambling. Wall Street will try to control the price through futures. It depends on how stupid the market is to let themselves get manipulated by the price of something that is not even real Bitcoin. We are dealing with billionaire weasels now, it's a new different level never seen before in Bitcoin.

My recommendation: Ignore futures and it's price, and only trade real bitcoins directly, anything that isn't this is on the scammy side.

does this mean that the issuers will be trading bitcoin normally in order to obtain more holdings for more Futures traders?

We are dealing with billionaire weasels now, it's a new different level never seen before in Bitcoin

i think this what a lot of people have concerns about, the futures traders are different,

they will definitely not care about crypto, blockchain, open source, decentralised tech.

[FrueGreads]

As far as I know, bitcoin futures does not affect bitcoin price directly. When you buy buy futures, you can go short or long on bitcoin futures, and by that you expect the price to go down or up respectively, in order for you to have a profit (but you are not buying or selling bitcoin).

The "problem" with futures, is that you can now win money if the bitcoin price goes down. What everyone is saying" is that there is a great opportunity to buy bitcoin before the futures goes live, and by doing this you are making it's price go up (specially if you are a whale, like the Wall Street guys are). When futures go live, those guys can just short bitcoin, and at the same time sell the bitcoins they've bought before the futures went live. Since they have plenty of money, they might be able to have some influence on the bitcoin price, so by selling coins, they will be winning on the short they did on futures, and will cash out some profit out of the bitcoin sale as well.

After this they can go long on bitcoin futures, and at the same time buy bitcoin that is now at a shorter price, and again win on both sides. Of course this is not that linear, and the market will still be unpredictable, but this is a possible set up made by Wall Street whales, and this might be a way for the futures market to influence bitcoin price.

[novhitadaloma]

Many people who already understand about bitcoin have even joined bitcoin, because they know that they will eventually get something of considerable profit

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[zeze18]

I think we agree if bitcoin investment is the best right now among some other investments like stocks, gold, and property,and many of whom have gained success of their investments with bitcoin, and with its current popularity bitcoin has potential to continue to grow and develop rapidly in the next year and the best opportunity to be invested in it.

[XinXan]

As far as I know, bitcoin futures does not affect bitcoin price directly. When you buy buy futures, you can go short or long on bitcoin futures, and by that you expect the price to go down or up respectively, in order for you to have a profit (but you are not buying or selling bitcoin).

The "problem" with futures, is that you can now win money if the bitcoin price goes down. What everyone is saying" is that there is a great opportunity to buy bitcoin before the futures goes live, and by doing this you are making it's price go up (specially if you are a whale, like the Wall Street guys are). When futures go live, those guys can just short bitcoin, and at the same time sell the bitcoins they've bought before the futures went live. Since they have plenty of money, they might be able to have some influence on the bitcoin price, so by selling coins, they will be winning on the short they did on futures, and will cash out some profit out of the bitcoin sale as well.

After this they can go long on bitcoin futures, and at the same time buy bitcoin that is now at a shorter price, and again win on both sides. Of course this is not that linear, and the market will still be unpredictable, but this is a possible set up made by Wall Street whales, and this might be a way for the futures market to influence bitcoin price.

Maybe but Wall Street whales aren't going to invest a lot of money into bitcoin simply because it's too volatile. If many of them work together they could do anything they want with bitcoin's price but that would be market manipulation which is illegal.

[MyIdeas]

I don't think so that bitcoin futures will have a big effect on bitcoin prices. I think that's just a new trading facility that will either contain only bitcoin or another crypto. The difference is, here you just buy the position, and don't get the actual bitcoin. In an exchange, you can earn a profit by selling coins whose prices are rising. but in bitcoin futures, you might be able to open 2 positions, ie buy positions, and sell positions. So you can also gain profit if the price is down. If in bitcoin futures are given multiplier/leverage functions, then this will be more like a gambling site.

It is really very much difficult thing to comment on the future of bitcoin. There will be number of things which will change in the coming days. If bitcoin gets legal, then this entire thing will changed as the concept of decentralization will no longer exist. In addition to this, with the increase in the demand of bitcoin the market price of bitcoin will also get effected. Future will bring lot of good things for us.

[Willitivity]

The volatility of Bitcoin makes the future quite unpredictable. For instance, four months ago nobody would believe Bitcoin being at this current price. And  again, as days go by, bitcoin is gaining more attention and popularity with more persons coming in to the system.
Overall, I think the future is cool for Bitcoin as we are going to see a more stable price.

[shinzai]

As far as I know, bitcoin futures does not affect bitcoin price directly. When you buy buy futures, you can go short or long on bitcoin futures, and by that you expect the price to go down or up respectively, in order for you to have a profit (but you are not buying or selling bitcoin).

The "problem" with futures, is that you can now win money if the bitcoin price goes down. What everyone is saying" is that there is a great opportunity to buy bitcoin before the futures goes live, and by doing this you are making it's price go up (specially if you are a whale, like the Wall Street guys are). When futures go live, those guys can just short bitcoin, and at the same time sell the bitcoins they've bought before the futures went live. Since they have plenty of money, they might be able to have some influence on the bitcoin price, so by selling coins, they will be winning on the short they did on futures, and will cash out some profit out of the bitcoin sale as well.

After this they can go long on bitcoin futures, and at the same time buy bitcoin that is now at a shorter price, and again win on both sides. Of course this is not that linear, and the market will still be unpredictable, but this is a possible set up made by Wall Street whales, and this might be a way for the futures market to influence bitcoin price.

Thank you for a clear answer

I suspected this was the case, ie that futures trading itself has no impact on the bitcoin price, but rather adds an incentive to manipulate the bitcoin price.

However, is it not just as likely for the whales to go long & manipulate the price upwards as it is downwards?

Maybe but Wall Street whales aren't going to invest a lot of money into bitcoin simply because it's too volatile. If many of them work together they could do anything they want with bitcoin's price but that would be market manipulation which is illegal.

How is such a thing proven? has there been any cases where people have been found guilty?

Because I feel in order to not bet against (& screw up) each other A LOT of whales have to come together and bet in the same direction.

[takira]

It is a very interesting question. I want to know too. Futures will be good for Bitcoin and it will grow up or it will just kill it? 

[Qartersa]

This is the problem with the financial world and the current society actually. We are using old systems on new ones, but really it should have not been this way. Futures are a concept of the old and bitcoins are the new generation. The old is trying to control the new with they bitcoin futures. What does this entail for bitcoins? Well more volatility. Now we don't have to just look at the price of bitcoins while it is trading, we also need to check it with futures. For sure those old bold dudes at the wall street will find new creative ways to screw over the world like what they all did back in the financial crisis. Tough luck for everybody, I guess.

[ronics]

We really need to trade it in bitcoin to earn at least even a small investment. Bitcoin is a bug trading company demanding work for people who want to believe it .bitcoin also has a great investment in who wants to join ,we are raising it and giving it a premium to everyone who wants to juggle it and it also helps people who need my job to boost your beliefs here and the bitcoin .we work with him .good for investment also and other way to live here bitcoin..

[Soots]

Bitcoin has good future. Now, many more people join bitcoin because with bitcoin many people get reward. So it can diminish unemployed person

Bitcoin has a great future as it still increase as of this moment, though there might a little fall since it was been part of the system. As far as I remember the value of bitcoin last year is around 600USD which become much more value compare on todays value and still increasing nearly 20,000USD. Well for sure by next as my speculation, it will surpass on that possible amount that can earn much more money as many investors want to earn as well as the people in the community. Bitcoin is really habe a good and bright future that can have a profitable today and in the future that makes everyone of us happy and comfortable.

[vickycoin05]

Bitcoin future will be bright as speculators keep on speculating the price of bitcoin will keep on growing high. More investors will invest in bitcoin and government of many countries will adopt bitcoin as their secondary money, so to that bitcoin will sustain it market value and it exchange rate will skyrocketed to as high as $50000 in the next few years to come.

As I gaining knowledge about bitcoin I realized on how amazed the bitcoin has. It brings everyone to ahead one step higher to there way of living as bitcoin helps them to earn. I would say the bitcoin future will be brighter as brither of the sun that still increasing its value from time to time unexpectedly and I believed that it will continue in the future.