The mother of all traps?

[Rampion]

Interesting to see how big its being the bounce from the 200 day EMA (blue line):



For the first time since we hit $50 in mid-April, the rally from $66 has been on high volume, which is a point in favor for the "this is not a trap, but a trend reversal" case.

One point against that case is that the current rally is fueled by scarcity of coins, and not in an increased influx of money. CMF is still negative, and the fiat on Gox's order book is stagnating at less than 50% of its ATH ($11M). In the meanwhile, 10s of k's of coins disappeared from the order book:



The mother of all traps or a trend reversal? Speculate, gents.

[Rampion]

First 10 votes, and 90% say its a trap.

Too few votes to say, but if that incredible 90% figure is confirmed that would be an indicator that we are completely oversold and we are going up... Especially if we consider that this poll is run in bitcointalk.org, which is a community bullish on BTC by definition.

Interesting.

[blackreplica]

First 10 votes, and 90% say its a trap.

Too few votes to say, but if that incredible 90% figure is confirmed that would be an indicator that we are completely oversold and we are going up... Especially if we consider that this poll is run in bitcointalk.org, which is a community bullish on BTC by definition.

Interesting.

Sample size too small. If what you said was representative of the population the runup would have stopped at a far lower price

To clarify...I'm not being bullish...I think the average guy who votes on your poll will probably know more than the average bitcoin investor...who I'm sure right now is thinking the whole bubble burst is finally over (I don't think so but am prepared to be wrong)

[tutkarz]

First 10 votes, and 90% say its a trap.

Too few votes to say, but if that incredible 90% figure is confirmed that would be an indicator that we are completely oversold and we are going up... Especially if we consider that this poll is run in bitcointalk.org, which is a community bullish on BTC by definition.

Interesting.

what meaning it has if one person will decide to dump his fresh 50k bitcoins on the market? And the rest who is buying right now will panic.

[chufchuf]

a mtgox press release does not a trend make, so there was no trend to reverse in the first place

[Rampion]

First 10 votes, and 90% say its a trap.

Too few votes to say, but if that incredible 90% figure is confirmed that would be an indicator that we are completely oversold and we are going up... Especially if we consider that this poll is run in bitcointalk.org, which is a community bullish on BTC by definition.

Interesting.

what meaning it has if one person will decide to dump his fresh 50k bitcoins on the market? And the rest who is buying right now will panic.

This is true on both sides. Bitcoin is still a penny-stock market, thus is easily manipulable or "moved" by just a single entity with big pockets. If a random guy decides to "dump" his fresh $10M on the market, the rest who is not buying right now will just panic buy.

For this very reasons Bitcoin is so "fun" from a trading perspective, compared to Forex for ex. is a very wild game. As many like to say, because of how small is this market, "Bitcoin just does what the fuck he wants"

[BitPirate]

First 10 votes, and 90% say its a trap.

Too few votes to say, but if that incredible 90% figure is confirmed that would be an indicator that we are completely oversold and we are going up... Especially if we consider that this poll is run in bitcointalk.org, which is a community bullish on BTC by definition.

Interesting.

what meaning it has if one person will decide to dump his fresh 50k bitcoins on the market? And the rest who is buying right now will panic.

They've been trying. The last few days there have been several dumps. It seems the rest of the fish have developed a nice taste for whale dump now.

Don't get shaken down by manufactured "panic".

[xorglub]

My suspicion :



There are a lot of arguments to disprove that as well though. We'll see next week.

[Rampion]

My suspicion :



There are a lot of arguments to disprove that as well though. We'll see next week.

If we break $105 for good picture starts to get quite bullish, at least short term. $120 could be reached easily if $105 is broken.

[lucas.sev]

If we break $105 for good picture starts to get quite bullish, at least short term. $120 could be reached easily if $105 is broken.

What does break 105 for good mean in bitcoin world where breaking a key resistance usually triggers a wave of buys that there is no time for price to settle?

[tutkarz]

if i would have such money i would take my profits now instead of waiting for somebody else to do it for me. this person who bought that $80 wall and sold now could earn around $200k in few days. There are many people who don't earn that much in a year of hard work ...

[vokain]

if i would have such money i would take my profits now instead of waiting for somebody else to do it for me. this person who bought that $80 wall and sold now could earn around $200k in few days. There are many people who don't earn that much in a year of hard work ...

sounds like they're in the wrong suboptimal line of business

[Its About Sharing]

If we break $105 for good picture starts to get quite bullish, at least short term. $120 could be reached easily if $105 is broken.

What does break 105 for good mean in bitcoin world where breaking a key resistance usually triggers a wave of buys that there is no time for price to settle?

Good point but if there is anything any of us have learned is that there are a few players who can change this on a dime. When those $1,000,000 orders come through we are just along for the ride.
The only certain thing I've noticed recently is that who ever is doing the large buying were using the technical indicators to their advantage.

My feeling and observation is that we are still in a down trend and that this is a HUGE bounce up, a bit like that "you are here" chart above. But anything can change.

I feel like we should post less as our posts have made us "violated" by the large buyers  

[vokain]

If we break $105 for good picture starts to get quite bullish, at least short term. $120 could be reached easily if $105 is broken.

What does break 105 for good mean in bitcoin world where breaking a key resistance usually triggers a wave of buys that there is no time for price to settle?

Good point but if there is anything any of us have learned is that there are a few players who can change this on a dime. When those $1,000,000 orders come through we are just along for the ride.
The only certain thing I've noticed recently is that who ever is doing the large buying were using the technical indicators to their advantage.

My feeling and observation is that we are still in a down trend and that this is a HUGE bounce up, a bit like that "you are here" chart above. But anything can change.

I feel like we should post less as our posts have made us "violated" by the large buyers  

at this point it's probably cheaper to push the price up than it is to push it down, and i'm not referring to ask/bid depth (which moves) but directing the flow of the market psychology.

[Its About Sharing]

If we break $105 for good picture starts to get quite bullish, at least short term. $120 could be reached easily if $105 is broken.

What does break 105 for good mean in bitcoin world where breaking a key resistance usually triggers a wave of buys that there is no time for price to settle?

Good point but if there is anything any of us have learned is that there are a few players who can change this on a dime. When those $1,000,000 orders come through we are just along for the ride.
The only certain thing I've noticed recently is that who ever is doing the large buying were using the technical indicators to their advantage.

My feeling and observation is that we are still in a down trend and that this is a HUGE bounce up, a bit like that "you are here" chart above. But anything can change.

I feel like we should post less as our posts have made us "violated" by the large buyers  

at this point it's probably cheaper to push the price up than it is to push it down, and i'm not referring to ask/bid depth (which moves) but directing the flow of the market psychology.

I think I can almost completely agree with that. The one thing is that we are probably really overbought now and also sitting just under the other psychological barrier ($100).
As we say, between a rock and hard place... (at least that is a bit how it feels)

[vokain]

I think I can almost completely agree with that. The one thing is that we are probably really overbought now and also sitting just under the other psychological barrier ($100).
As we say, between a rock and hard place... (at least that is a bit how it feels)

Overbought as compared to when...when we were in the $60s last week, or $130s a monthish ago? All that fiat from the selling is out there somewhere....

[chufchuf]

My suspicion :



There are a lot of arguments to disprove that as well though. We'll see next week.

well for starters we'd be in september on a 2011 equivalent as we peaked april

[ElectricMucus]

Sigh, here is the actual 2011/2013 overlay, again it takes about 2.5 times as long this time. The scaling factor is kind of arbitrary but it is definitely not 1:1.

[vokain]

why does 2013 have to follow 2011? making a proportional overlay is one thing, assuming that it's the same bubble dynamic is another fundamental leap in logic

[ElectricMucus]

why does 2013 have to follow 2011? making a proportional overlay is one thing, assuming that it's the same bubble dynamic is another fundamental leap in logic

It doesn't it is just in popular demand to compare it, and I thought I at least do it right.
e: I could probably tweak the scaling to come up with a more impressive match (scaling might be closer to 3 than 2.5) but I think everybody gets the point.