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Author Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread  (Read 167490 times)
dhenson
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July 19, 2013, 01:42:15 AM
 #181

Would someone please repost or link to the Bitfunder AMC => ActM tendering instructions?

Thanks
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July 19, 2013, 01:47:59 AM
 #182

Would someone please repost or link to the Bitfunder AMC => ActM tendering instructions?

Thanks

ActM's thread, post #3! Smiley
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July 19, 2013, 02:19:33 AM
 #183

Price on bitfunder up to 0.00249, wall on btctc under 800k

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July 19, 2013, 02:22:01 AM
 #184

Holy shit, since my last update at 23:05 last night, 598266 shares sold at 0.0025

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July 19, 2013, 04:06:27 AM
 #185

698,637 of 2,500,000 shares left
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July 19, 2013, 04:12:24 AM
Last edit: July 19, 2013, 05:58:20 AM by ArcticWolf
 #186

69,275 before the small wall on bitfunder as well

Edit: The wall has been reached, and is starting to get eaten!

595,123 on btc-tc, and 240,890 on bitfunder

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July 19, 2013, 05:57:21 AM
 #187

Wall on Bitfunder now being consumed. Down to 241K.
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July 19, 2013, 08:04:49 AM
 #188

Wall on Bitfunder now being consumed. Down to 241K.

Under 200K now on Bitfunder ... and under 500k on btct

Fun times Smiley



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ronaldlee0917
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July 19, 2013, 08:07:50 AM
 #189

Walls are nearly breached, wondering how high we will go after that! Grin

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July 19, 2013, 08:30:45 AM
 #190

Walls are nearly breached, wondering how high we will go after that! Grin

Probably a spike as the SDICE funds arrive (much later on Bitfunder) then a lull and dip until ActiverMiner prove they can deliver (as some people will want to get out and use funds elsewhere).
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July 19, 2013, 09:20:38 AM
 #191

Walls are nearly breached, wondering how high we will go after that! Grin

Probably a spike as the SDICE funds arrive (much later on Bitfunder) then a lull and dip until ActiverMiner prove they can deliver (as some people will want to get out and use funds elsewhere).


Yep, that's how I see it too. I hope the speculators do well, because they are an important part of the market, however the real value in ActM is as a long term hold. Early dividends alone will probably be worth more than any short term capital gain the flippers make.
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July 19, 2013, 09:51:34 AM
 #192

Walls are nearly breached, wondering how high we will go after that! Grin

Probably a spike as the SDICE funds arrive (much later on Bitfunder) then a lull and dip until ActiverMiner prove they can deliver (as some people will want to get out and use funds elsewhere).

Yep, that's how I see it too. I hope the speculators do well, because they are an important part of the market, however the real value in ActM is as a long term hold. Early dividends alone will probably be worth more than any short term capital gain the flippers make.

Depends how low they sell. I'm doing the maths on ActiveMiner vs AsicMiner (AM) at the moment. I've got more AsicMiner holdings than ActiveMiner and expect AM to go up very significantly now. If they hit 6, which is unlikely but possible, the equivalent price of ActiveMiner must be 0.0032 to have made it break even to hold this morning (@4.7 BTC for AM) or 0.029 if AM hits 5.5. AM is almost certainly going to hit 5 within 24 hours

Next week's AM dividends are expected to be good plus I believe an announcement is due so we may find ActiveMiner shares available below 0.003 (up to 20% profit) so some may cash in for AsicMiner again.

Decisions decisions. I may just go 50:50 on each for now.

Penny for anyone else's thoughts?

To be fair, I still have concerns over ActiveMiner having researched its founder and background more. Too many basic mistakes, not enough clarity, and then yesterday's pull at 150k then a push of 250k somewhat later (Bitfunder). The basic plan is fine, but there is a lot to prove.




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July 19, 2013, 10:07:51 AM
 #193

Walls are nearly breached, wondering how high we will go after that! Grin

Probably a spike as the SDICE funds arrive (much later on Bitfunder) then a lull and dip until ActiverMiner prove they can deliver (as some people will want to get out and use funds elsewhere).

Yep, that's how I see it too. I hope the speculators do well, because they are an important part of the market, however the real value in ActM is as a long term hold. Early dividends alone will probably be worth more than any short term capital gain the flippers make.

Depends how low they sell. I'm doing the maths on ActiveMiner vs AsicMiner (AM) at the moment. I've got more AsicMiner holdings than ActiveMiner and expect AM to go up very significantly now. If they hit 6, which is unlikely but possible, the equivalent price of ActiveMiner must be 0.0032 to have made it break even to hold this morning (@4.7 BTC for AM) or 0.029 if AM hits 5.5. AM is almost certainly going to hit 5 within 24 hours

Next week's AM dividends are expected to be good plus I believe an announcement is due so we may find ActiveMiner shares available below 0.003 (up to 20% profit) so some may cash in for AsicMiner again.

Decisions decisions. I may just go 50:50 on each for now.

Penny for anyone else's thoughts?

To be fair, I still have concerns over ActiveMiner having researched its founder and background more. Too many basic mistakes, not enough clarity, and then yesterday's pull at 150k then a push of 250k somewhat later (Bitfunder). The basic plan is fine, but there is a lot to prove.

I'm long both, but to be perfectly honest I think long ActM, short ASICMINER is also a respectable strategy with the current prices.

It really depends when one first bought in, I think. A 50:50 stake in each will suit some people (especially if they were early). If I was going long on both right now, ie with no current investment I'd probably go 80:20 in ActM's favour.

I have no plans to flip. I'll watch and hold even if I see a dip coming, because you can never be sure your timing will work out - I'd rather not risk getting stranded on the side lines when I'm convinced ActM will prove very lucrative.
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July 19, 2013, 10:11:26 AM
 #194

Depends how low they sell. I'm doing the maths on ActiveMiner vs AsicMiner (AM) at the moment. I've got more AsicMiner holdings than ActiveMiner and expect AM to go up very significantly now. If they hit 6, which is unlikely but possible, the equivalent price of ActiveMiner must be 0.0032 to have made it break even to hold this morning (@4.7 BTC for AM) or 0.029 if AM hits 5.5. AM is almost certainly going to hit 5 within 24 hours

Next week's AM dividends are expected to be good plus I believe an announcement is due so we may find ActiveMiner shares available below 0.003 (up to 20% profit) so some may cash in for AsicMiner again.

Decisions decisions. I may just go 50:50 on each for now.

Penny for anyone else's thoughts?

To be fair, I still have concerns over ActiveMiner having researched its founder and background more. Too many basic mistakes, not enough clarity, and then yesterday's pull at 150k then a push of 250k somewhat later (Bitfunder). The basic plan is fine, but there is a lot to prove.

The pull/push of shares was because on Bitfunder all shares receive dividends, so in order for only the outstanding to receive them, he had to pull the wall, de-issue them, pay the dividend, re-issue them and post them again.

The only left expense to pay besides the NRE is the ~63 avalon clones that are going to host the incoming 20,000 chips (they are gonna be 4 board systems, at ~90GH/s each).

I don't like to speculate a lot about Asicminer, but I'll just say I'm not really seeing the price rise unless there is definitely some next-gen news or more hashrate incoming; their mining+selling values are more or less constant in the last weeks, so that tends to keep the share price constant also.
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July 19, 2013, 10:14:30 AM
 #195

The pull/push of shares was because on Bitfunder all shares receive dividends, so in order for only the outstanding to receive them, he had to pull the wall, de-issue them, pay the dividend, re-issue them and post them again.

Thanks - good to know. This forum really needs a thanks button. Or a bitcoin tip bot. (tho why 150->250k?)

This isn't an AsicMiner thread so I'll limit this to an ActiveMiner comparison. AM is 'established' (for Bitcoin!) so the share has a value beyond the dividend. It's seen as a safe place to store money, has room for more share gains (partly because of this), and will earn an income. ActiveMiner's share price is based upon the risk/reward of the business plan, so future dividend predictions are vital.
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July 19, 2013, 10:19:48 AM
 #196

The pull/push of shares was because on Bitfunder all shares receive dividends, so in order for only the outstanding to receive them, he had to pull the wall, de-issue them, pay the dividend, re-issue them and post them again.

Thanks - good to know. This forum really needs a thanks button. Or a bitcoin tip bot. (tho why 150->250k?)

This isn't an AsicMiner thread so I'll limit this to an ActiveMiner comparison. AM is 'established' (for Bitcoin!) so the share has a value beyond the dividend. It's seen as a safe place to store money, has room for more share gains (partly because of this), and will earn an income. ActiveMiner's share price is based upon the risk/reward of the business plan, so future dividend predictions are vital.


You could transfer ActiveMiner shares on BTCTCO for tips  Grin
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July 19, 2013, 10:25:10 AM
 #197

The pull/push of shares was because on Bitfunder all shares receive dividends, so in order for only the outstanding to receive them, he had to pull the wall, de-issue them, pay the dividend, re-issue them and post them again.

Thanks - good to know. This forum really needs a thanks button. Or a bitcoin tip bot. (tho why 150->250k?)

This isn't an AsicMiner thread so I'll limit this to an ActiveMiner comparison. AM is 'established' (for Bitcoin!) so the share has a value beyond the dividend. It's seen as a safe place to store money, has room for more share gains (partly because of this), and will earn an income. ActiveMiner's share price is based upon the risk/reward of the business plan, so future dividend predictions are vital.


I'm thinking each one of those Avalon clones would cost something from $1,000-$2,000 in reference board materials + assembly, so let's say $1,500*63 = $94,500 in total, which is about $94,500/$90/0.0025 = ~420,000 shares at 0.0025 and $90/BTC. Considering the leftover funds, the 250,000 shares on BF should be enough to cover that expense in full and it's very important for them to be 100% assembled as soon as the chips arrive.

These are my latest estimations. I really think what will make ActM push forward at record speed is the bulk chip sales. Grin

New update, this time I considered some hardware selling estimates, as well as the impact of Ken's 15M shares on the whole operation. Smiley

(any errors found, just shout! Grin)

Considerations:
  • Mining
  • Klondikes mining at August (worst case)
  • Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center
  • November/December (worst case) hashrate increase from the high-volume process (low-volume is not worth it for just a ~month difference), using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
  • 50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips
  • Total network hashrate includes ActM's mining plus hardware sold to other parties (200% markup)
  • Sales
  • Sales volume is really hard to predict. I just assumed it to be 2x the profits of mining, which I still think is really on the low side, as ActM is gonna also sell chips in bulk. For example, Avalon in getting ready to ship its ~BTC164,000 in bulk chips. There is definitely money to be made in bulk chip sales!



Conclusions:
  • Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around December/January
  • The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable
  • As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further
  • Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible
  • The effect of hardware sales is just mind boggling
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July 19, 2013, 11:07:22 AM
 #198

What exactly happens when the wall is consumed?

Currently: 416211 on BTC-TC, and zero on Bitfunder.
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July 19, 2013, 11:11:48 AM
 #199

What exactly happens when the wall is consumed?

Currently: 416211 on BTC-TC, and zero on Bitfunder.

Still 166,794 on bitfunder.
When the wall goes down, Ken should have enough for the NRE for the new chip, and enough to pay for the new hashing assets that are incoming. The upward pressure on the share price will push it past 0.025 and - Im assuming - a lot of speculators will sell for a quick profit.

There is very little on bitfunder between 0.0025 and 0.005, so who knows where the share price will end up

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July 19, 2013, 11:17:35 AM
 #200

What exactly happens when the wall is consumed?

Currently: 416211 on BTC-TC, and zero on Bitfunder.

Still 166,794 on bitfunder.
When the wall goes down, Ken should have enough for the NRE for the new chip, and enough to pay for the new hashing assets that are incoming. The upward pressure on the share price will push it past 0.025 and - Im assuming - a lot of speculators will sell for a quick profit.

There is very little on bitfunder between 0.0025 and 0.005, so who knows where the share price will end up

Great explanation. Thanx ArticWolf
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