I recently ordered a jalapeno - and I have questions on ROI

[klondike_bar]

I want to get an opinion with regards to my Jalapeno order, and here are some of the 'facts' in my head right now:

1) BFL is now shipping jalapenos, and seems to be focusing the most resources on them (i guess the least work to satisfy the most people)
2) BFL predicts that all jalapeno backlog will be erased by september
3) BFL has a track record of failure and lies with regards to status and shipping
4) If a 5GHash unit arrives by september, it could still pull ROI within 4-7 months (everyone has different calculations - im open to advice)
5) Paypal can be reversed/disputed up to 45 days from payment (or more in some circumstances), and BFL non-delivery is a valid reson to dispute based on paypal guidelines

so...

6) I placed a single order for a 5G jalapeno roughly 10 days ago. I did so because now seems like a relatively good time to balance the duration of the preorder and actually getting a unit soon(tm)
7) I anticipate it will arrive in time for me to reach break-even, or at least close enough that the hobby aspect makes it worthwhile
Cool I have eggs in a few baskets, including bitfury and K16 - each is a similar gamble (K16 is similar price and delivery timeframe)
9) I could theoretically get a refund through paypal up to the middle of august, when the delivery timeframe is more obvious

My question/concern is that BFL might take too long to deliver my jalapeno that the $300 invested on it returns <$250 in the first 6 months after electricity (I can accept a $50 loss in exchange for nifty looking hardware that may be capable of running small profits for another 3-6 months and/or effectively allow my to buy bitcoins via my electricity bill) I am watching actively now for any signals that i should either rest easy or hit the paypal 'dispute' button.

second question/clarification: what are the 7G version, just a ver.2 chip with better effeciency/heat, or a second parallel chip design? Is there any chance that un-upgraded orders ahead of me will clear out the BFL stock of 5G chips and everyone past a certain point will be given the 7G chips at less/no extra cost? (its a longshot, but a serious question based on thier quatities of each chip type and if they are still producing 5G chips at the factory)

[Loredo]

Nobody can make that decision for you.  

[EDIT]: I removed most of my original post, since it became clear from subsequent posts of the OP on other threads that he is well capable of understanding and analyzing ROI, which, in my mind, calls into question his motives in this post.

[cryptoanarchist]

Soooo, because a handful of people who may, or may not be in on the scam report getting machines from BFL, they should now be trusted even though tons of other people have been waiting for almost a year now??

[Loredo]

Soooo, because a handful of people who may, or may not be in on the scam report getting machines from BFL, they should now be trusted even though tons of other people have been waiting for almost a year now??

See my edited above post.  If your implication is that the OP has ulterior motives in his post, I won't challenge that now.

[k9quaint]

I want to get an opinion with regards to my Jalapeno order, and here are some of the 'facts' in my head right now:

1) BFL is now shipping jalapenos, and seems to be focusing the most resources on them (i guess the least work to satisfy the most people)
2) BFL predicts that all jalapeno backlog will be erased by september
3) BFL has a track record of failure and lies with regards to status and shipping
4) If a 5GHash unit arrives by september, it could still pull ROI within 4-7 months (everyone has different calculations - im open to advice)
5) Paypal can be reversed/disputed up to 45 days from payment (or more in some circumstances), and BFL non-delivery is a valid reson to dispute based on paypal guidelines

so...

6) I placed a single order for a 5G jalapeno roughly 10 days ago. I did so because now seems like a relatively good time to balance the duration of the preorder and actually getting a unit soon(tm)
7) I anticipate it will arrive in time for me to reach break-even, or at least close enough that the hobby aspect makes it worthwhile
Cool I have eggs in a few baskets, including bitfury and K16 - each is a similar gamble (K16 is similar price and delivery timeframe)
9) I could theoretically get a refund through paypal up to the middle of august, when the delivery timeframe is more obvious

My question/concern is that BFL might take too long to deliver my jalapeno that the $300 invested on it returns <$250 in the first 6 months after electricity (I can accept a $50 loss in exchange for nifty looking hardware that may be capable of running small profits for another 3-6 months and/or effectively allow my to buy bitcoins via my electricity bill) I am watching actively now for any signals that i should either rest easy or hit the paypal 'dispute' button.

second question/clarification: what are the 7G version, just a ver.2 chip with better effeciency/heat, or a second parallel chip design? Is there any chance that un-upgraded orders ahead of me will clear out the BFL stock of 5G chips and everyone past a certain point will be given the 7G chips at less/no extra cost? (its a longshot, but a serious question based on thier quatities of each chip type and if they are still producing 5G chips at the factory)

BFL stopped shipping jalapenos to focus on bringing the single & mini-rig lines up to date.

From:
https://products.butterflylabs.com/65nm-asic-bitcoin-mining-chip.html
A chip running all 16 engines @ 250MHz will produce 4GH/s. However, not all chips have all 16 engines working.

Jalapeno's have 2 chips in them. If you get lucky you could get good chips and your Jalapeno will run faster (up to 8GH/s).

[cryptograd]

I want to get an opinion with regards to my Jalapeno order, and here are some of the 'facts' in my head right now:

1) BFL is now shipping jalapenos, and seems to be focusing the most resources on them (i guess the least work to satisfy the most people)
2) BFL predicts that all jalapeno backlog will be erased by september
3) BFL has a track record of failure and lies with regards to status and shipping
4) If a 5GHash unit arrives by september, it could still pull ROI within 4-7 months (everyone has different calculations - im open to advice)
5) Paypal can be reversed/disputed up to 45 days from payment (or more in some circumstances), and BFL non-delivery is a valid reson to dispute based on paypal guidelines

so...

6) I placed a single order for a 5G jalapeno roughly 10 days ago. I did so because now seems like a relatively good time to balance the duration of the preorder and actually getting a unit soon(tm)
7) I anticipate it will arrive in time for me to reach break-even, or at least close enough that the hobby aspect makes it worthwhile
Cool I have eggs in a few baskets, including bitfury and K16 - each is a similar gamble (K16 is similar price and delivery timeframe)
9) I could theoretically get a refund through paypal up to the middle of august, when the delivery timeframe is more obvious

My question/concern is that BFL might take too long to deliver my jalapeno that the $300 invested on it returns <$250 in the first 6 months after electricity (I can accept a $50 loss in exchange for nifty looking hardware that may be capable of running small profits for another 3-6 months and/or effectively allow my to buy bitcoins via my electricity bill) I am watching actively now for any signals that i should either rest easy or hit the paypal 'dispute' button.

second question/clarification: what are the 7G version, just a ver.2 chip with better effeciency/heat, or a second parallel chip design? Is there any chance that un-upgraded orders ahead of me will clear out the BFL stock of 5G chips and everyone past a certain point will be given the 7G chips at less/no extra cost? (its a longshot, but a serious question based on thier quatities of each chip type and if they are still producing 5G chips at the factory)

Expect your unit on August 2015

July 2015 with no delays!

great choice

[notlist3d]

Really should have read forum before.  I really want them to do great, but thier amount going out just dosent cut it.  They need to scale up a lot.  Right now most ROI is the ones selling on Ebay.  I predict ebay (which can be risky) is where a lot of the jalapeno's go for near future.

[klondike_bar]

Soooo, because a handful of people who may, or may not be in on the scam report getting machines from BFL, they should now be trusted even though tons of other people have been waiting for almost a year now??

See my edited above post.  If your implication is that the OP has ulterior motives in his post, I won't challenge that now.

no ulterior motives here, im just curious what others think. (I have my own opinion, which is that if it delivers quickly i may get ROI and then have hardware that in future either can be resold (look at ebay - $2000 for in-hand units right now!) or become collector/conversation pieces)

Obviously, i want the greatest ROI possible, but understand if i fall slightly short. I personally feel that some forum users are very liberal in their 100M+ difficulty for october, since many asic makers are slow to deliver and GPU and FPGA miners (profitable or hobby) will take their devices offline.

I've spread my risk (K16 order, jally order, Bitfury order, ASICMINER shares, AMC-pt shares) and of these options, BFL is the most questionable. Every day i feel torn between seeing them ship out the jally units that are between june 2012 and my own order, and demanding a refund via BFL/paypal.


tbh, my going plan is that i will use my K16 and jally miners to make at least a 50% ROI and then determine whether it will be more profitable to resell them or continue mining (bitfury *presumably* will be the most profitable, upgradable option since i got the august kit and october board)



with regards to the chip quality of 5G vs 7G, thanks for the clarification. it makes me much more wary if the difference is simply related to the quality of the chips, which could spell bad things for lifespan. Is the issue ongoing in all thier chips, or was it just a first-batch issue (ie: by the time my jally is prepared, chip quality will be up to par at 6G+)?

[k9quaint]

tbh, my going plan is that i will use my K16 and jally miners to make at least a 50% ROI and then determine whether it will be more profitable to resell them or continue mining

You keep using the term ROI. I do not think it means what you think it means.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_investment
return on investment = (gain from investment - cost of investment) / cost of investment

At the current exchange rate, you would need to mine 6.64 BTC to earn 50% ROI on the Jalapeno you just ordered. That is unlikely to happen given the amount of time it will take to deliver your Jalapeno.

[Loredo]

Soooo, because a handful of people who may, or may not be in on the scam report getting machines from BFL, they should now be trusted even though tons of other people have been waiting for almost a year now??

See my edited above post.  If your implication is that the OP has ulterior motives in his post, I won't challenge that now.

no ulterior motives here, im just curious what others think.

Okay, I wasn't accusing you of sock-puppetry exactly; only I saw posts of yours elsewhere which seemed to indicate what you were asking was well within your knowledge, or, at least, how I answered was well within your knowledge.

Bottom line is, so much of the discussion - and decisions - boil down to one simple boolean state. E.g.:

KnC_die_size == fatally_large.  If true, bye bye KnC.  Else bye bye everybody else.
BFL == scam.  If true, Josh deserves to get cussed out.  Else Josh should cuss everybody else out.

And so it goes.  There is not one single retail absolute, except for ASICminer, whose ship has sailed already, anywhere in the hardware field.

If you think there aren't enough vendors who can pull it off by September, then there's a ton of money to be made by buying hardware at the current ask prices (can bitfury prop+retail really induce 400-500 TH by then themselves?).

But any one of the others, if their potential is close to realized and freed into the wild, can jump difficulty in a quantum that the calculations may not have integrated right.