I think he is still planning on delivering promised refunds (call me an optimist).
I think he is not processing refunds in a very calculated way.
By not being proactive on delivering refunds he is discouraging other customers from requesting refunds.
Chip buyers would rather have late chips than a promise of a refund that doesn't deliver. At least you can minimize your losses with chips.
With no refund, you have that... nothing.
My assumption then (based on the first line)... is that refunds won't be processed in a significant way until the majority of the latest chip orders have been shipped.
Unfortunately I think your logic is spot on. I do think Yifu is a good guy and would not have the capacity to not make good on his business dealings, but you raise the point that if all of a sudden Avalon starts issuing refunds for B3, the chip buyers are going to start making demands as well.
Either way, going forward it's clear that a large majority of the supply of hash rate will emanate from a few key players (think ASICMiner/Giga/Lab/IceDrill/etc), and there will be less hobbyists running heat swamps in their homes. The USB-ASIC miners dating the Radeons are a huge boon for people who want to support the network cheaply, without any grandiose ideas of making a lot of money. Lady luck has been known to struck.
Anyways, I will be relieved when the refund is finally processed.
Makes no difference to chip buyers as he's already agreed to refund batch 3.
Sorry I no longer think Yifu is a good guy.
We've seen him promise refunds to be imminent, twice in the past two months.
We've seen photos of millions of Avalon chips ready and in Bitsyncom's possession, coupled with the tracking I'd that can be checked through an official site proving they were in receipt two months ago.
We've heard voices of discontent from former Bitsyncom members stating the chips have been ready since June, they split due to moral differences and Yifu is running around looking for private finance.
We've seen bulk chips available for real on the black market from some time July onwards.
We've seen silence from Yifu.
We've seen a shady PR move published in the Wall Street Journal backfire horrifically.
We've seen group buy bulk chip purchasers want legal action.
We've finally then had a flakey BS response from Yifu.
Still hardly any chips.
Still a wall of silence.
Still promises to refund.
But an acknowledgement he's in bed with private equity, that may well have a hand in chip delays.
Still no sign Yifu is in real control of anything as claimed other than the ability to ship sample chips.
We've seen movement finally in the group buy chip wallets, but not in the right direction.
The silence is a total unwillingness to be straight and honest, and avoid all responsibility to tell the truth.
