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Author Topic: What can we expect the price to decline/raise to?  (Read 2366 times)
kiwiasian
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July 05, 2011, 01:05:52 AM
 #1

Looking at the current pattern, things don't seem too good, especially at the current difficulty level :/

Looks like it will be around $10 or less by the end of this week.

I remember reading a thread where a professional stock investor theorized about what would happen to the BTC economy--so far, every single point he made was correct. He also predicted that the price would drop to $5, which scares me. I have a feeling he is right.

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July 05, 2011, 02:15:03 AM
 #2

Can you cite that economist?

What happens when your prediction is wrong? I bet you will stop replying to this thread...

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July 05, 2011, 02:31:53 AM
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Can you cite that economist?

What happens when your prediction is wrong? I bet you will stop replying to this thread...

It reminds me of the scores of people who kept repeating how the price will drop to the single digits once MtGox came back online. It didn't.
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July 05, 2011, 03:11:07 AM
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Like I said before, were in a dangerous time for bitcoins, its either make it or break it right here right now.  THe feelings from the MTGOX crash is just coming down, trickling down because it took time for people to get there cash out, there coins out, u see the volume of sales has dropped big time, some went to other exchanges, going to be tough to keep the price up until we get some more positive reports, and more businesses online and offline accepting it.  This is what I am hoping happens as I believe in the concept of a bitcoin.

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July 05, 2011, 03:48:43 AM
 #5

I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.
kiwiasian
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July 05, 2011, 04:17:15 AM
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I don't remember who nor can I find the thread

I'm not making any predictions..

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July 05, 2011, 04:32:51 AM
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Like I said before, were in a dangerous time for bitcoins, its either make it or break it right here right now.  THe feelings from the MTGOX crash is just coming down, trickling down because it took time for people to get there cash out, there coins out, u see the volume of sales has dropped big time, some went to other exchanges, going to be tough to keep the price up until we get some more positive reports, and more businesses online and offline accepting it.  This is what I am hoping happens as I believe in the concept of a bitcoin.

If you are suggesting that the current drop is due to the MtGox incident, I highly doubt it.  People didn't have to get their coins in, they already had them in there, they simply couldn't sell until MtGox came back online.  I'm guessing what happened was someone who had a ton of coins, decided to take profits since the price had slowly been trickling down for the last week.  This caused a sharp plummet, and a lot of people freaked and followed suit.  There wasn't some simultaneous mass loss of confidence in Bitcoins.  I don't know the future, if I did I would have a lot more success on the stock market.  I can tell you that when you have a major sell off like you do today, it is a good time to buy while the price is discounted. 

I have a few BTC from mining, and I can tell you personally there is no way I will be selling at the current price.  I have confidence it will rebound.  Hopefully sooner rather than later.  Once the "weak hands" jump out, it means the only people left willing to sell will demand a higher price, and it should come back up. 

I'll stand by this prediction whether it comes true or not.  This is how I interpret these events at this point in time.  Who knows what I'll believe after tomorrow.
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July 05, 2011, 04:42:48 AM
 #8

I just had a conversation in which the most brilliant economist to ever walk the earth explained why the value of bitcoin was going up 100x this year. Unfortunately, I can't remember any of his reasons or even his name.

Should I start a thread about it?

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July 05, 2011, 04:49:25 AM
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Being that the bitcoin has no real value other then collector/speculator value, it's price will continue to fall as the collectors speculators and not continue to buy up all these coins.

I still do not understand who is buying these coins above $10 dollars. They really will fall below $10, and probably stabalize around $5-$8, then it will be slow growth from this point.

THis currency has  proven to continue to fall slowly, most speculators will not continue to risk buying at these high prices knowing that there is a down trend. They have to be crazy to actually continue to buy. The big holders of bitcoins have to be crazy not to have sold a good portion of their coins above $20.

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July 05, 2011, 04:49:51 AM
 #10

I'm curious. How can you predict the value of Bitcoin if there is no specific use?

Let's say BTC was used as currency in a popular mainstream game. Then you could maybe predict it's value. There would be a specific use to base your prediction on. I don't think there is a use, at this point, that would justify any predictions.

If a service that depends on BTC comes out tomorrow, and is a Big Hit, the value would skyrocket. How can you predict that?

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July 05, 2011, 04:56:04 AM
 #11

delete

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July 05, 2011, 08:19:07 AM
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I still do not understand who is buying these coins above $10 dollars. They really will fall below $10, and probably stabalize around $5-$8, then it will be slow growth from this point.


there are two kinds of people - one that buys when the price gets low, and one that waits until the price hits some magic number they have in their head out of nowhere. first kind of people do have some immediate losses but profit later. second kind keep waiting, forever.

It takes one guy with measly 100k usd to decide the price is right for it to make a sharp u-turn, because everyone then jumps in. and you will be left behind waiting for the price to stabilize. It may happen at 10, may happen at 5, may happen at 1, nobody knows this and nobody can know this. So unless you take risks, you will stay behind. Easy as that.

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July 05, 2011, 08:27:45 AM
 #13

I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.

Perhaps. However longer term I still think were looking at $50+ in the near future.

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July 05, 2011, 09:31:20 AM
 #14

I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.

Perhaps. However longer term I still think were looking at $50+ in the near future.


So whats your long term ? Think we could see + $20 stable within the year ?

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July 05, 2011, 12:19:20 PM
 #15

As of today the single undisputed most valuable currency in the world is worth...(can you guess)...ONE DOLLAR!

As long a bitcoin does not go down to 0 I could not care less how it moves because I plan to try and take advantge of it if; 1) it remains stable at whatever price 2) it keeps going up 3) it fluctuates (like almost everything else does).

If it does continue to slide all the way to 0 (which I highly doubt) I will be slightly sad that a great experiment brought a negative result.

No more no less.

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July 05, 2011, 08:24:19 PM
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If it does continue to slide all the way to 0 (which I highly doubt) I will be slightly sad that a great experiment brought a negative result.

No more no less.

The great experiment will bring a negative result if the markets go below 0

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July 05, 2011, 09:49:57 PM
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Here, you can use mine for free.



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July 05, 2011, 11:24:46 PM
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If it does continue to slide all the way to 0 (which I highly doubt) I will be slightly sad that a great experiment brought a negative result.

No more no less.

The great experiment will bring a negative result if the markets go below 0

He's got a point there! lol

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http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30044.msg377773#msg377773
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July 06, 2011, 04:01:11 AM
 #19

Think about this:

How many dollars are in the world?.. and... How many bitcoins? $>>>B

How many new dollars are created each day in the world?... and... How many bitcoins? $>>>B


So...

If time => Infinity; then

Value(Bitcoin) >>>>> Value($DOLAR)


Maths are cool Smiley
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July 06, 2011, 04:28:21 AM
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I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.

There is a dramatic increase in said economy, reflected by the increase in mining and the increase in exchange volume.

Using the price and difficulty correlation, I speculate we're at the bottom of the deflated bubble now between $10 and $15 (historic low in price over difficulty ratio - see charts in my sig).

Rally or bubble reinflation starts again when price breaks through resistance at $18-$20 a second time, which will attract more mining and speculating.  Price increase will outpace the difficulty (difficulty is a lagging indicator), then price corrects but to a higher bottom, supported by the higher difficulty. 

Lather, rinse, and repeat.

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