BitPirate
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July 23, 2013, 03:19:02 PM |
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I thought the wire transfers were flowing again. People were posting proof of transactions into their bank accounts. To answer your question I would be willing to wait a month for a 6% profit to get bank into my bank account. What if I could rinse and repeat 12 times a year? Would that be a 72% profit for the year? What other old-ass traditional stock, commodity, ETF, bond, forex trading, etc can net you that??
^This. The selling pressure on BitStamp is IMO irrational. |
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phoenix1
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July 23, 2013, 03:22:17 PM |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251895.msg2786714#newAnd check several other threads in service discussion Draw your own conclusions, but it seems 'flowing' is not the right word. 'Trickling' perhaps. I think your month would be very optimistic. Bear in mind that you are also taking on serious counterparty risk during this time. Your % profit is simply betting on the probability of Gox becoming insolvent over that (unknown) time frame. That's the trade. If I were you, right now, I would be factoring in a 3 month wait time. Just a guess ... EDIT : I do not have an agenda here, I am merely stating my opinion of things as I see and interpret them. YMMV
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"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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BitPirate
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July 23, 2013, 03:29:19 PM |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251895.msg2786714#newAnd check several other threads in service discussion Draw your own conclusions, but it seems 'flowing' is not the right word. 'Trickling' perhaps. I think your month would be very optimistic. Bear in mind that you are also taking on serious counterparty risk during this time. Your % profit is simply betting on the probability of Gox becoming insolvent over that (unknown) time frame. That's the trade. If I were you, right now, I would be factoring in a 3 month wait time. Just a guess ... EDIT : I do not have an agenda here, I am merely stating my opinion of things as I see and interpret them. YMMV We've seen ~1k buys/dumps! So you're telling me that there are people who think that the risk of cashing out via MtGox is greater than the risk of holding large amounts of BTC through one of the greatest bubble crashes in history? You may be right, but it just doesn't ring true to me. I think most BTC holders are further along the risk/reward curve than that. I can understand a gap -- but I think the gap is unnaturally wide. People shorting on bitfinex accounts for some of the gap but not all. The dumps we saw earlier today reminded me greatly of previous irrational dumps we saw on Gox. Anyway, we'll see... |
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Tzupy
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July 23, 2013, 03:29:48 PM |
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The last large buy on MtGox was about 8k IIRC, dumping this on Bitstamp would drive the price down to 60, which is insane for just one day.
And the dumps on Bitstamp started before this last large buy on MtGox. Something does not make sense.
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Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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phoenix1
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July 23, 2013, 03:43:03 PM |
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I can understand a gap -- but I think the gap is unnaturally wide. People shorting on bitfinex accounts for some of the gap but not all. The dumps we saw earlier today reminded me greatly of previous irrational dumps we saw on Gox. Anyway, we'll see...
Hey, I think we are actually largely in agreement ... something does not seem to quite add up right now and the gap seems unnaturally large. Further than that, anything I say is pure speculation and I have no idea of the reality of the situation You are right ... Gox solvency vs holding BTC may be a tough call for some as clearly there are insufficient bids on BitStamp to provide a clean exit for those with large fiat balances on Gox |
"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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JustAnotherSheep
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July 23, 2013, 05:01:01 PM |
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QED. People are reluctant to send their coin to Gox to trade for Fiat because it is extremely difficult to actually take possession of the Fiat. A continuously rising percentage of small trades appears to be leaving Gox for other exchanges. The whales are still there because no place else can really accommodate them. Yet.
But all the slow withdrawal process means is delayed profit. If you have a lot of capital even doing this once will earn you quite a bit which you'll have in a month or two. I'd sure do it if I had access to that kind of money to spend on BTC. Or has trust that Mt.Gox will pay you at all already died? |
Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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ElectricMucus
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Marketing manager - GO MP
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July 23, 2013, 05:19:08 PM |
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The spread gonna go up uP UP.
Watch out for 100% premiums as gox curls it's death toes.
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myself (OP)
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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July 23, 2013, 11:58:40 PM |
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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myself (OP)
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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July 24, 2013, 01:14:55 PM |
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Name Volume BTC Lowest price [USD/BTC] Highest price [USD/BTC] Average price [USD/BTC] Last price [USD/BTC]
mtgox 23,369 92.30 97.13 94.66 95.18 Trend_up
bitstamp 13,560 82.00 88.88 86.59 87.47 Trend_up
btce 3,461 84.65 87.30 86.06 86.89 Trend_up
campbx 942 86.00 92.00 89.35 89.96 Trend_up again 10% gap |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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myself (OP)
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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July 25, 2013, 11:22:10 AM |
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mtgox 97.10
bitstamp 89.81
btce 87.90
campbx 87.79 |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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phorensic
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July 25, 2013, 02:09:07 PM |
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Yeah 10% spread between CampBX and Gox right now. Madness.
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phorensic
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July 27, 2013, 06:44:34 AM |
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Gap between CampBX and Gox has been narrowing all day. Currently only $1 difference. Other exchanges not following that trend, however. Anybody care to post another gap graph? I don't know where you are getting them.
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Zaih
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July 27, 2013, 12:58:51 PM |
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Yeh.. But what happens when you never receive the Gox payment?
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myself (OP)
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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July 27, 2013, 01:21:02 PM |
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Yeh.. But what happens when you never receive the Gox payment?
ppl got fiat back from bitcoin24 and bitfloor, that's the advantage when you deal with fiat it can be reverted and it leaves more traces than blood |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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July 27, 2013, 06:20:32 PM |
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Yeh.. But what happens when you never receive the Gox payment?
ppl got fiat back from bitcoin24 and bitfloor, that's the advantage when you deal with fiat it can be reverted and it leaves more traces than blood Bitcoin24 some, but most, probably 80%, not yet and largest account is still frozen. Chances are high it will be returned but until then, it's not. |
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Chang Hum
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July 28, 2013, 02:46:55 PM |
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The gap makes sense;
The Gox price is artificially high because they cannot process withdrawals in a timely manner (up to 3 months in many cases).
As many people need funds that are in their account or are afraid the cumulative effect of slow withdrawals and many other problems Gox have had recently could spell the end for Gox, they are forced to transfer their Fiat into Bitcoin creating + rise in value on the exchange. The opposite effect (- effect) happens on all other exchange as the coins flow into them for sale.
There's no money to be made from arbitrage the prices aren't random on each exchange it's just a reflection of the above. If you monitor the difference in price between say btc-e and bitstamp there's a pretty consistent $1 diff or 1/88= 1%.
The 1% difference on these exchanges possibly reflects the higher cost (1%) of depositing money onto Btc-e
Gox customer service is worryingly don't give a fuckish with a bit of sarcastic "Dear valued customer" thrown in for spitish reasons (possibly staff know they're soon to be unemployed and don't like taking shit from pricks like me!!). I really wouldn't risk your money trying to Arb from exchanges to Gox you stand to make 5-10% as a one off if they don't go out of business and they get their problems sorted. I'd say there's a 25% if you're going to leave money there over the next 3 months you could lose it all.
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myself (OP)
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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July 28, 2013, 03:49:58 PM |
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Yeh.. But what happens when you never receive the Gox payment?
ppl got fiat back from bitcoin24 and bitfloor, that's the advantage when you deal with fiat it can be reverted and it leaves more traces than blood Bitcoin24 some, but most, probably 80%, not yet and largest account is still frozen. Chances are high it will be returned but until then, it's not. if the money is there, it can take more time and more paper work, users will get the money, this is the advantage that fiat have |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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byronbb
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HODL OR DIE
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July 28, 2013, 11:23:42 PM |
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Can you give me the url for this? Also cavirtex with 10k up to $92 with gox at $100. |
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myself (OP)
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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July 29, 2013, 08:02:58 AM |
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Can you give me the url for this? Also cavirtex with 10k up to $92 with gox at $100. |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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Lohoris
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August 02, 2013, 08:54:32 AM |
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Q: Why would you sell on Bitstamp when Mt. Gox is 10% higher, and has just moved up 5% without Bitstamp moving?
A:
1. You don't really like money all that much
2. Once a bear, always a bear
3. Manipulation
4. Retardation
Why would you sell at Mt. Gox, at any price, when withdraws do not work? 1. you're delusional 2. you're stupid 3. you like to have a fake balance that you can't really use 4. you are a gambler (and hope your withdrawal will go through) (hint: there are better places to gamble, with a much smaller house edge) |
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