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Author Topic: As Predicted  (Read 4602 times)
Shinobi
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July 05, 2011, 05:59:22 PM
 #1

I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:

  • The SRAs (i.e. the folks who found out about and bought into Bitcoin in June as a result of the Silk Road Articles) are getting bored with Bitcoin.
  • The SRAs would have cashed out a few weeks ago if it wasn't for the MGH (the Mount Gox hack) which had them licking their chops at the thought of a possible "reset" of the market which would allow them to buy in at pre-June prices.
  • As that didn't happen, the SRAs' boredom and inability to make profits on large margins because of the relatively stable $17 price since the MGH is now finally resulting in a slow but steady cash out.
  • The price is now dropping to the point where even the faithful are losing their nerve and cashing out.
  • Bitcoin will continue to drop, with possible plateaus at $10 and then steadily drop from there to around $3 or $4, if not lower.
  • Throughout the drop media articles will detail the drop of Bitcoin, while Bitcoin zealots like TraderTimm, Evorhees, and Atlas will continue to post about the "great opportunity to buy" as they watch their anti-establishment dream disappear along with their significant investments.

Thoughts?

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angelo95
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July 05, 2011, 06:03:31 PM
 #2

I think you are just making up numbers. What is the $10 plateau based on? The $3 and $4 lows?
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July 05, 2011, 06:04:11 PM
 #3

I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:

  • The SRA's (i.e. the folks who found out about and bought into Bitcoin in June as a result of the Silk Road Articles) are getting bored with Bitcoin.
  • The SRA's would have cashed out a few weeks ago if it wasn't for the MGH (the Mount Gox hack) which had them licking their chops at the thought of a possible "reset" of the market which would allow them buy in at pre-June prices.
  • As that didn't happen, the SRA's boredom and inability to make profits on large margins because of the relatively stable $17 price since the MGH is no finally resulting in a slow but steady cash out.
  • The price is now dropping to the point where even the faithful are losing their nerve and cashing out
  • Bitcoin will continue to drop, with possible plateuas at $10 and then steadily drop from there to around $3 or $4

Thoughts?

will not stick at $10, thats not how it works, sorry.
Shinobi
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July 05, 2011, 06:07:28 PM
 #4

I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little.

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angelo95
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July 05, 2011, 06:09:51 PM
 #5

I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little.


This is my point. I don't listen to people picking numbers "out of their asses". Learn some serious stuff like economics and maths and come back teach us. I might be interested this time.
Shinobi
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July 05, 2011, 06:13:15 PM
 #6

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.

I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little.


This is my point. I don't listen to people picking numbers "out of their asses". Learn some serious stuff like economics and maths and come back teach us. I might be interested this time.

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July 05, 2011, 06:17:03 PM
 #7

I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little.
I hope you're right.  I doubt it though Sad

Mousepotato
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July 05, 2011, 06:17:22 PM
 #8

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.
Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...
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July 05, 2011, 06:21:08 PM
 #9

I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little.
I like your honesty behind your rational.

Shinobi
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July 05, 2011, 06:22:18 PM
 #10

They did, as virtually valueless and among a fringe community. When I said "abandoned" I should have said "abandoned by all, but a few anti-establishment types and tech-enthusiasts".

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.
Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...

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aral
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July 05, 2011, 06:28:08 PM
 #11

You should stick it back in your ass where it belongs.
tymothy
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July 05, 2011, 06:29:25 PM
 #12

I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:

  • The SRAs (i.e. the folks who found out about and bought into Bitcoin in June as a result of the Silk Road Articles) are getting bored with Bitcoin.
  • The SRAs would have cashed out a few weeks ago if it wasn't for the MGH (the Mount Gox hack) which had them licking their chops at the thought of a possible "reset" of the market which would allow them to buy in at pre-June prices.
  • As that didn't happen, the SRAs' boredom and inability to make profits on large margins because of the relatively stable $17 price since the MGH is now finally resulting in a slow but steady cash out.
  • The price is now dropping to the point where even the faithful are losing their nerve and cashing out.
  • Bitcoin will continue to drop, with possible plateaus at $10 and then steadily drop from there to around $3 or $4, if not lower.
  • Throughout the drop media articles will detail the drop of Bitcoin, while Bitcoin zealots like TraderTimm, Evorhees, and Atlas will continue to post about the "great opportunity to buy" as they watch their anti-establishment dream disappear along with their significant investments.

Thoughts?


The price of bitcoins:

[ ] Have gone up significantly
[ X] Have gone down significantly
[ ] Have not fluctuated significantly

And I believe the price:

[X ] will continue this behavior
[ ] will not continue this behavior

And therefore one should:

[ ] BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!
[X ] SELL SELL SELL!!!
[ ] HOLD HOLD HOLD!!!
[ ] DO THE HOOOOKEY POKEY!!!

I base this opinion on:

[ ] mathemagic
[ ] statistics
[ ] correlations between price and a thing which may or may not be causally related to price
[ ] graphs
[X ] extrapolations
[X ] current events
[X ] historical events
[ ] the fact that a pattern like this has occurred before and therefore will occur again
[ ] insider knowledge that a large trade is about to take place
[X ] the fact that I have seen and predicted things correctly before
[ ] Oracle at Delphi
[X ] Magic 8 Ball
fitty
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July 05, 2011, 06:30:04 PM
 #13

I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:

  • The SRAs (i.e. the folks who found out about and bought into Bitcoin in June as a result of the Silk Road Articles) are getting bored with Bitcoin.
  • The SRAs would have cashed out a few weeks ago if it wasn't for the MGH (the Mount Gox hack) which had them licking their chops at the thought of a possible "reset" of the market which would allow them to buy in at pre-June prices.
  • As that didn't happen, the SRAs' boredom and inability to make profits on large margins because of the relatively stable $17 price since the MGH is now finally resulting in a slow but steady cash out.
  • The price is now dropping to the point where even the faithful are losing their nerve and cashing out.
  • Bitcoin will continue to drop, with possible plateaus at $10 and then steadily drop from there to around $3 or $4, if not lower.
  • Throughout the drop media articles will detail the drop of Bitcoin, while Bitcoin zealots like TraderTimm, Evorhees, and Atlas will continue to post about the "great opportunity to buy" as they watch their anti-establishment dream disappear along with their significant investments.

Thoughts?

There's always a zillion factors going on. Right now there's more sellers then buyers. A lot of miners are selling coins as fast as they get them to help recover their hardware investments. Some are getting out of mining. The last difficulty adjustment pushed a lot of people out of the mining business. Not because it's no longer profitable, but because people don't like seeing their income drop 40% overnight so they're getting out while they can still sell the hardware at great prices. But people will always mine. I know people who 10+ folding rigs and not only run them for free, they lose money on the electricity costs. Even if Bitcoins were $3 people would still runt their mining rigs. Difficulty adjusts, people adapt, Bitcoin keeps going.

The majority of people who buy and spend Bitcoins are for drugs. No one is going through the trouble of loading up money on some iffy exchange, buy bitcoins then go buy something they could have purchased with a debit/creditcard. The only reason you'd use Bitcoins instead of debit/credit is because it's harder to track (legal stuff like a bong you might want to hide) or it's illegal. Thankfully for Bitcoin the illicit drug market is huge. Global video game market is around 50 billion. Illicit drugs is easily over 500 billion.

The fact is very few people are buying AND using Bitcoins beyond illicit drugs. If I want to buy a used video card there's no way I'm going to send money to MtGox, buy bitcoins, then go pay for my video card. Almost everyone who accepts Bitcoins also accepts standard forums of payment. If they don't they're living in god knows where (i.e. not usa) and I'm not buying from them anyway.

So the bad news is there's lots of people trying to use Bitcoin to make quick money, using it as an investment, which relies on OTHER people to want/spend Bitcoins.

The good news is the amount of people who do buy and spend Bitcoins should slowly keep going up, those people aren't going away, so there's a lot of strength/security on the bottom. Bitcoins will more and more become an easier/better way to buy drugs (not as much locally, but it's huge internationally where your dealer might live 4000 miles away). Long term Bitcoin has a lot of strenght/upside but people trying to use it as an investment or get rich quick are going to be sorely disappointed.

So people are always going to mine, people are always going to need Bitcoins for drugs, that's not changing. The problem right now is a lot of people were trying to make quick money off Bitcons and there simply isn't enough buyers to support it. The situation long term looks very strong to me but short term it's going to be a lot of growing pains.

angelo95
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July 05, 2011, 06:32:01 PM
 #14

When I talk about finance, I prefer to base my decisions on numbers. If numbers are meaningless for you, this is a genuine way of investing. All the best with it. Beside that I absolutely don't care if it goes down or up, and I have no idea what will happen. All I want is the market to fluctuate, in order to let me speculate on it.

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.

I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little.


This is my point. I don't listen to people picking numbers "out of their asses". Learn some serious stuff like economics and maths and come back teach us. I might be interested this time.
SlipperySlope
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July 05, 2011, 06:33:38 PM
 #15

At what price point would you be a buyer of bitcoins?
JohnDoe
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July 05, 2011, 06:35:39 PM
 #16

The price of bitcoins:

[ ] Have gone up significantly
[ X] Have gone down significantly
[ ] Have not fluctuated significantly

And I believe the price:

[X ] will continue this behavior
[ ] will not continue this behavior

And therefore one should:

[ ] BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!
[X ] SELL SELL SELL!!!
[ ] HOLD HOLD HOLD!!!
[ ] DO THE HOOOOKEY POKEY!!!

I base this opinion on:

[ ] mathemagic
[ ] statistics
[ ] correlations between price and a thing which may or may not be causally related to price
[ ] graphs
[X ] extrapolations
[X ] current events
[X ] historical events
[ ] the fact that a pattern like this has occurred before and therefore will occur again
[ ] insider knowledge that a large trade is about to take place
[X ] the fact that I have seen and predicted things correctly before
[ ] Oracle at Delphi
[X ] Magic 8 Ball


This should be a sticky.
foggyb
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July 05, 2011, 06:45:17 PM
 #17

Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.
Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...

This is a great point. MANY people will not sell their coins, EVER. Why should they sell at 5$ or 1$?

Bitcoin has come a long way, has seen more windsocks come and go than you or I can ever imagine.

Bitcoin don't give a shit.

Bitcoin isn't going anywhere.

Many miners aren't going anywhere either.
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July 05, 2011, 06:55:45 PM
 #18


Bitcoin don't give a shit.


Bitcoin is the Honey Badger of digital currencies.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg

...
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July 05, 2011, 06:56:59 PM
 #19

I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass.


Love the technical explanation  Grin

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HideousBeastManGuy
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July 05, 2011, 07:00:38 PM
 #20

I've studied/traded via Technical Analysis for a while and he's probably more right than wrong.

$14.10 was an important level for as it was the price bitcoin dropped to after MtGox re-opened and the "sky was falling".  Price tested that level last night and wasn't able to get past it (I think it was at 14.3 for a few minutes, but was quickly beaten back).

The next guesses will just be guesses, with every drop in price, miners and early speculators are going to get more and more uncomfortable, and more willing to sell.  I watch bitcoin price all day and I have yet to see buy volume anywhere near sell volume for the past 4 days of watching the DOMs closely.  Panic is winning at the moment and there's no sign of it stopping.  I think $10 will be a good measure, and I think there are probably around $3-$5 per btc worth of people who will never abandon the idea, although that's obviously highly subjective.
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