The crux of speculation discussions

[minarchist]

For the brief time that I've been here, I haven't seen any reference to what I consider to be the foundation of Bitcoin speculation:  the long-term role of Bitcoin in the global financial sphere.  Here are three future scenarios (they can be subdivided more finely but this should get my point across):

(1)  Bitcoin remains in the hobbyist domain (USD/BTC never rises above four figures)

(2)  Bitcoin becomes very popular, and gains a wide degree of acceptance, but still coexists with fiat currencies in a sort of detente relationship (USD/BTC is five to six figures).

(3)  Bitcoin trounces fiat currencies, and essentially displaces them into oblivion (USD/BTC is seven figures).

I am much more interested in what happens long-term than I am in fretting over things like a spike followed by a dip to a price that still well exceeds the price before the spike and then trying to make inferences from this.  Which of the aforementioned three scenarios unfolds is largely a function of the number of people who will get into Bitcoin and the number of merchants who will accept Bitcoin.

[vokain]

already agreed upon and we mostly acknowledge how bitcoin will progress long term. it's why we argue so much about the short term here, because there's not much more to argue about the long. Bitcoin is a honey badger we'll probably progress from 1 through 3 in due time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

edit: 1000th post!!!!

[PerfectAgent]

IMO, the question is not of if, but when. So we're at 1, and I feel like number 2 will be how it will be on the order of decades, if only because the concept of currency not issued by government has been around for so many years, it'll be very hard for most people to collectively overcome, as well as the fact that governments only accept taxes in their own legal tender, and people would not want to be thrown into jail. The third one will probably take many, many years to occur, and is probably too far in the future to consider.

[Ares]

IMO, the question is not of if, but when. So we're at 1, and I feel like number 2 will be how it will be on the order of decades, if only because the concept of currency not issued by government has been around for so many years, it'll be very hard for most people to collectively overcome, as well as the fact that governments only accept taxes in their own legal tender, and people would not want to be thrown into jail. The third one will probably take many, many years to occur, and is probably too far in the future to consider.

I think if we hit 2, then all regulatory concerns will be done with and there will be nothing stopping the superior BTC from becoming 3. I think it will happen quicker than you think because you have to realize that kids are now coming out of the womb with iphones in hand, a twitter, and a facebook. They will not have a hard time grasping Bitcoin.

[vokain]

haha like it matters when we reach TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY

[Impaler]

(0)   Bitcoin declines in popularity as newer iterations of crypto-currency attract attention with newer and better features and BTC eventually become another nearly abandoned coin like so many alt-coins have already become.  People need to stop confusing the success of crypto-currency with the success of BTC, when they stopped making the Model T is was not the end of the automobile, it was just the end of the beginning.

[zby]

For the brief time that I've been here, I haven't seen any reference to what I consider to be the foundation of Bitcoin speculation:  the long-term role of Bitcoin in the global financial sphere.  Here are three future scenarios (they can be subdivided more finely but this should get my point across):

(1)  Bitcoin remains in the hobbyist domain (USD/BTC never rises above four figures)

(2)  Bitcoin becomes very popular, and gains a wide degree of acceptance, but still coexists with fiat currencies in a sort of detente relationship (USD/BTC is five to six figures).

(3)  Bitcoin trounces fiat currencies, and essentially displaces them into oblivion (USD/BTC is seven figures).

(4) Digital currencies become very popular but bitcoin is just one of them - and this bifurcates into two other scenarios: bitcoin leads the pack as the strongest digi-currency or  someone makes a better currency and bitcoin only value becomes historical for hobbyists

[jamesc760]

6. Digital currencies, including bitcoin, recedes in popularity as gov'ts around the world bolsters fiat currencies and start attacking btc. Price of btc plummets down to less than $0.000001 per bitcoin.

[BitcoinAshley]

6. Digital currencies, including bitcoin, recedes in popularity as gov'ts around the world bolsters fiat currencies and start attacking btc. Price of btc plummets down to less than $0.000001 per bitcoin.

Remember the part of the video where the honey badger eats the head of the poisonous snake and passes out? What happens after that? 

[vokain]

6. Digital currencies, including bitcoin, recedes in popularity as gov'ts around the world bolsters fiat currencies and start attacking btc. Price of btc plummets down to less than $0.000001 per bitcoin.

Remember the part of the video where the honey badger eats the head of the poisonous snake and passes out? What happens after that?  

thank you for putting that image back in my head it's quite pleasant

[ElectricMucus]

The market price of Bitcoins have not really anything to do with it's usage. It can rise to pretty much any level you can imagine without becoming even close to a currency supporting any economic activity.

[monkeybars]

Are your figures in 2013 dollars? Because if BTC gets to step 3, who knows how many more dollars will have been printed. Seven figures is not unreasonable against fiat currency, but I don't believe it will rise above 6 figures in 2013 dollars.

That said, I do believe that cryptocurrency will replace fiat. And I don't think it will take decades. The value of the BTC market will exceed that of fiat currencies in less than ten years. Let's say, seven or so. If you think this will shock the world economy and cause wars, revolutions, and governmental collapse, you're right. Strap in for a wild ride. Even without the Turnover, our world would be in for a lot more chaos this decade. Thank goodness for BTC though; once the (very) rough transition is over, things will be a little better and fairer economically all over the world.

[Kazu]

I think the answer is (2), because 'normal' people won't ever really want to hold something with a moving exchange rate vs. their beloved USD/EUR/whatever. However, like gold, I predict Bitcoin will be something people use as a store of wealth because it has no inflation.

The only real scenario I can see 'normal' people getting into Bitcoin is if there is a bubble of never before seen proportions, giving rise to a 'its always gotta go up' mentality, so tons of businesses (like, BIG business) just start accepting Bitcoin as a way of getting hands on this asset that 'always rises'. Then, when it stops rising, there will already be so many businesses accepting it the 'pop' really wont be that big and people actually start using it as money.

I suppose if Bitcoin became so stable that businesses could offer some sort of pseudo-fixed BTC/USD exchange rate for very low fees (like, paying with something that most people know how to use like Credit) so things like Bitpay auto-exchange-out don't need to exist, there could also be a possibility for wider acceptance, but sorry I just dont see it.

[monkeybars]

I think the answer is (2), because 'normal' people won't ever really want to hold something with a moving exchange rate vs. their beloved USD/EUR/whatever. However, like gold, I predict Bitcoin will be something people use as a store of wealth because it has no inflation.

USD and EUR have a moving exchange rate too, and it doesn't stop use.

The only real scenario I can see 'normal' people getting into Bitcoin is if there is a bubble of never before seen proportions, giving rise to a 'its always gotta go up' mentality, so tons of businesses (like, BIG business) just start accepting Bitcoin as a way of getting hands on this asset that 'always rises'. Then, when it stops rising, there will already be so many businesses accepting it the 'pop' really wont be that big and people actually start using it as money.

I suppose if Bitcoin became so stable that businesses could offer some sort of pseudo-fixed BTC/USD exchange rate for very low fees (like, paying with something that most people know how to use like Credit) so things like Bitpay auto-exchange-out don't need to exist, there could also be a possibility for wider acceptance, but sorry I just dont see it.

You don't see it, because you're seeing BTC as something you have to exchange for.

Once the tipping point is reached, employees will be able to choose whether they are paid in BTC or dollar. Since the value of BTC will be increasing during this time (adoption phase), more and more will choose Bitcoin. Who will care about exchange rates when everyone accepts BTC?

Notice the wording there ("choose") -- currencies are competing, make no mistake. The best will win. And cryptocurrencies are, for those with internet, better money than fiat in too many ways.

[Chalkbot]

6. Digital currencies, including bitcoin, recedes in popularity as gov'ts around the world bolsters fiat currencies and start attacking btc. Price of btc plummets down to less than $0.000001 per bitcoin.

Yeah... except this is the scenario that boosts BTC value, not cause it to plummet.

[mp420]

If the governments really want to crack down on Bitcoin, they'll just make it unusable for the few things that it's currently useful for. Illegal drug trade in BTC is only possible because of tor. Yes I know that tor started as a US government project and they still use it. But if they really want to, they can make tor unusable for everyone, and just go to some proprietary channel for their own needs. Don't think free speech advocates can do anything about it. Just look at the laws they've already passed. And as for sabotaging tor, they have plenty of excuses, with all the illegal content that's distributed there.

Pretty much BTC is only useful because the governments allow it to be.

[Kazu]

I think the answer is (2), because 'normal' people won't ever really want to hold something with a moving exchange rate vs. their beloved USD/EUR/whatever. However, like gold, I predict Bitcoin will be something people use as a store of wealth because it has no inflation.

USD and EUR have a moving exchange rate too, and it doesn't stop use.

Yup, but EUR doesn't appear to have a fluctuating exchange rate in the EUR zone, and USD doesn't appear to have a fluctuating exchange rate in the USD zone. Is it an illusion? Sorta. Does it affect the perceived usefulness of the currency? Yes. There isn't a "bitcoin zone." Some people are going to say "the internet", but those prices float. Like, float a LOT.

The only real scenario I can see 'normal' people getting into Bitcoin is if there is a bubble of never before seen proportions, giving rise to a 'its always gotta go up' mentality, so tons of businesses (like, BIG business) just start accepting Bitcoin as a way of getting hands on this asset that 'always rises'. Then, when it stops rising, there will already be so many businesses accepting it the 'pop' really wont be that big and people actually start using it as money.

I suppose if Bitcoin became so stable that businesses could offer some sort of pseudo-fixed BTC/USD exchange rate for very low fees (like, paying with something that most people know how to use like Credit) so things like Bitpay auto-exchange-out don't need to exist, there could also be a possibility for wider acceptance, but sorry I just dont see it.

You don't see it, because you're seeing BTC as something you have to exchange for.

Once the tipping point is reached, employees will be able to choose whether they are paid in BTC or dollar. Since the value of BTC will be increasing during this time (adoption phase), more and more will choose Bitcoin. Who will care about exchange rates when everyone accepts BTC?

Notice the wording there ("choose") -- currencies are competing, make no mistake. The best will win. And cryptocurrencies are, for those with internet, better money than fiat in too many ways.

Okay, but heres the deal: How do you use Bitcoin without exchange, right now? You can't. What will trigger the use of Bitcoin without an exchange? And whats the advantage of it over something like Liberty Reserve, from a normal person's perspective (most people cant even understand decentralized, I just tell them 'its the difference between Facebook messages and email' and they respond like <.<).

[monkeybars]

If the governments really want to crack down on Bitcoin, they'll just make it unusable for the few things that it's currently useful for. Illegal drug trade in BTC is only possible because of tor. Yes I know that tor started as a US government project and they still use it. But if they really want to, they can make tor unusable for everyone, and just go to some proprietary channel for their own needs. Don't think free speech advocates can do anything about it. Just look at the laws they've already passed. And as for sabotaging tor, they have plenty of excuses, with all the illegal content that's distributed there.

Pretty much BTC is only useful because the governments allow it to be.

Tor can easily be taken over by an open-source team. Or, a new secure browser could easily be created by a non-governmental team.

How do you imagine governments could "make Bitcoin unusable" other than launching a massive 51% attack?

[monkeybars]

Okay, but heres the deal: How do you use Bitcoin without exchange, right now? You can't. What will trigger the use of Bitcoin without an exchange? And whats the advantage of it over something like Liberty Reserve, from a normal person's perspective (most people cant even understand decentralized, I just tell them 'its the difference between Facebook messages and email' and they respond like <.<).

You certainly can use BTC for transactions without exchange of fiat. You get paid in Bitcoin for goods and services then spend. That is what is triggering the use of Bitcoin without an exchange. In addition, the exchange rate of Bitcoin for services is probably around 30% higher than what you see on Mt Gox, because people who use Bitcoin now understand its price will rise. So, they'll accept less than the dollar amount determined by traders.

Your other question is about messaging. Claiming that a "normal person" can't understand decentralization is like saying they can't understand HTTP, cloud computing or email headers, yet billions of normal persons use these technologies daily. The point is, it works. Normal persons don't need to understand why, and it won't take any convincing when they're given the choice between getting paid in fiat that is losing market share (and value) daily, and takes days to send over the net, and an appreciating asset they can keep in their phone that is rising in value.

[mp420]

Tor can easily be taken over by an open-source team. Or, a new secure browser could easily be created by a non-governmental team.

Government can spend a few dozen millions (pocket money) a year into flooding and spamming and otherwise hampering tor (attack exit nodes and bridges).

They have good enough excuses, all the kiddie porn, drugs and other shock value subjects would make the attack seem justified.

How do you imagine governments could "make Bitcoin unusable" other than launching a massive 51% attack?

Attack all high profile users of BTC via a variety of legislative and other measures.

As of now they don't just care enough to do that. But they could if they wanted.