I have finally had time to review your numbers that you have given, which in honestly is not a lot for someone who actually reviews ratios.
Over a ~2 month period you are up over 60 BTC, which is a nice profit but looking at the charts that you provided No IPO/ IPO you are seeing an additional ~50 BTC profit with the IPO on 10/1/13 which is in cause to raising you max bets.
You have a valuation of 100% of your business at 5,000 BTC which is right now approximately $500,000 in USD, as for that it would be hard for me to justify, as most valuations are based on 1 year revenues or approximately 2-5 year profit margins based on what type of business and the approximate longevity. Right now all bitcoin businesses should be based on the very low end of the # of year’s profit margins.
Casinobitco Perceived Val, imo
I would estimate you will make about 200 BTC for 4 months during NFL season and approximately 240 BTC during the other 8 months. This is based on your booking and Black Jack games, futher growth is needed, imo for more profit. Therefore making about 440BTC a year. Now this depends on your ability to gain market versus other books, and also gain more US betting during NFL/CFB, which honestly I am yet to determine if the regular BTC user with deep pockets is really American football fans. Your major US sports gamblers are not here yet in the BTC community, imo.
So using that I base you guys a perceived valuation at 2 years x 440 = 880BTC
But in all honestly just using the 60 BTC over the last 2 months as basis the 1 year total profit would be 360BTC = a valuation with 2 year basis of =720BTC right this very minute.
With 30,000,000 shares (also a number I don’t like as the future stock grows the market loves low number of shares as splits generate future profit gains) it would make the shares in my mind at 880BTC = 0.00003BTC per share.
So you are looking at 2 options of investments IPO versus additional Venture Capitalists,
1. Venture Capitalists, if they know what they are doing and not just bitcoin miners who got rich back in day without investing true USD, then their offer will be approximately 400 BTC for ~45% of the company, or worse, with you running operations daily
If you get the amount you are asking with the percentage of the company you are willing to give do it, DO NOT PASS GO DO NOT TAKE $200!
2. IPO - If you go this route and at the share price you have listed, which I would suggest if you dont get a VC dumbass, you need to dump all 10%, not in 2 waves but initially , as second wave won’t ever get to that share price imo in next 2-5 years, after first release. Because imo an IPO is an opportunity on BTCT.co as a pump and dump.
Meaning you are going to get more invested initially for less % of company. This will also create market buzz for your business like Labcoin did last week.
Possible issue with this is people can lose out money on this venture with very little possible gains unlike VC where there are 1-3 people who gain a lot on large amounts. If enough people lose out are these people who lost people who use your service.
Well thought out post & some helpful feedback, thanks! I have to address couple points.
We fully expect to double your estimates year 1. Surprisingly, casino is actually a much larger part of our business than sports – we just released "provably fair", with more on the way soon. So far, most of our high-roller action is 'non-US', so NFL is really just a growth opportunity.
Also, I believe 2-5x is commonly “promised” for some franchise or brick & mortar start-up type investments, but I can’t find examples trading at the low end of that range on any bitcoin marketplaces (see my post in page 1), and 6-8x is a common range in the VC world. I agree, either has risks, but we can agree to disagree otherwise, and I appreciate posting the math to back your #’s.
Finally, we have no intention to "pump and dump", as that would be bad press (Facebook, anyone?). However, if a smart trader thinks that, he/she would simply sit on the sidelines and wait for cheap shares, just like anyone who bought Facebook at $18
