Actual Bitcoin commerce vs. speculation

[ElectricMucus]

I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in

That's right. The thing about a Martingale is that you don't always have to be right, you just have to be right enough. Whales will make mistakes too. And all you have to do is to be just a little better than they are at calculating risk.

That just made me cringe.

It's the way the world works.

Only, the usual end-game for the really big players running a Martingale is to burn down the casino at the appointed time. And say, "Oh, those chips, they are from the old burned down casino, they aren't good here at this shiny new casino".

Only, Bitcoin is really hard to burn down. And it is getting harder, exponentially.

Will there be a new game? Absolutely. But there is a certain beauty in how difficult it is for any individual to gain ultimate advantage in a trust-free system.

That's cute a trailer drives into the parking lot of the big casino parks in front of the employee rest room next to the ash tray and invites the ones out for a smoke for a spin of roulette.
"It's burned down!" 

[ElectricMucus]

That sums it up.

[ElectricMucus]

That sums it up.

I'd live there. Up on the very tippy top. Because I need the exercise.

I'll take the small orange one and the glass house at the bottom.

[n4ru]

I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

[vokain]

I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

Imagine doing that a year ago! Now, imagine a year or two later!

[n4ru]

I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

Imagine doing that a year ago! Now, imagine a year or two later!

A year ago the only thing on that list I could have done was use it for the local shop.

[vokain]

I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

Imagine doing that a year ago! Now, imagine a year or two later!

A year ago the only thing on that list I could have done was use it for the local shop.

Progress.

[vokain]

I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in

You'd be surprised how many of them would join the defectors, which brings me back to my thesis that Bitcoins will remain super-volatile over extended periods of time. (Longer than the overall bull market can last)

At least until it gets to the point where the orderbooks are bigger than any group of people working together to bring the price down too drastically . either way, you'd have a rush of panic buying as S/D sets in and people buy the cheaper coins up.

[ElectricMucus]

I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in

You'd be surprised how many of them would join the defectors, which brings me back to my thesis that Bitcoins will remain super-volatile over extended periods of time. (Longer than the overall bull market can last)

At least until it gets to the point where the orderbooks are bigger than any group of people working together to bring the price down too drastically . either way, you'd have a rush of panic buying as S/D sets in and people buy the cheaper coins up.

Yeah, that's the nature of falling knifes, there is always a floor underneath them. But if the air is thin the terminal velocity is quite high.

[ElectricMucus]

Don't worry.

[phelix]

Do you guys know of any other stats?

Today, is there anything Bitcoin is actually used for in meaningful transactional volumes besides drugs (SR), gambling (SD), speculation and mining equipment?

Buying drinks at bars.

In Munich/Germany/EU there is a bar called "Niederlassung" (http://niederlassung.org). In the last five month they have made approximately 3.7BTC, ~$370 in Bitcoin. I am sure, they made an additional turnover of at least $700 in € from Bitcoin regulars that payed in €. This does not yet include free advertising. So they made a turnover of more than $1000 at what cost? Virtually nothing. They are running a laptop for other purposes anyway and simply installed Multibit. They printed a QR code on a piece of paper and put it up on the wall.

If you have a computer at the counter accepting Bitcoin comes at such a small effort it will always pay off.

370$ in 5 months.How much is a beer there?
On their price list it comes at 3euros ... make that 4$.

So you're telling me that they sold 90 of the cheapest beers in 5 months via bitcoin ?
Just to cash out those bitcoins it will cost them more than giving a free beer a day )))))

Ps. Bitcoin regulars that payed in euros are more like Euro Regulars.

It's probably worse. That 370Euro would come from a single regular who recently has become a Bitcoin zealot and the owner plays along to keep him.
So it's not an actual increase in turnover.

I saw with my own eyes that is not the case but it is like I described.

Accepting Bitcoin is still a very cheap and riskless way to make a tiny additional profit and get a small to medium publicity plus. Because it is so easy, cheap and riskless more and more real life places will accept it. The more I use it myself the more I am convinced.

[vokain]

The more I use it myself the more I am convinced.

+1

[ElectricMucus]

The more I use it myself the more I am convinced.

+1

Sounds awful. I would not like my money to require conviction.

[vokain]

The more I use it myself the more I am convinced.

+1

Sounds awful. I would not like my money to require conviction.

well on paper the dollar sucks but I use it everyday

[Impaler]

I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

Unless you have a hoard of coins that you mined yourself or got at an earlier date and are thus benefiting from a valuation increase, you would be buying thouse BTC's with the very same Fiat currency you claim to be avoiding and are effectively paying Gox or other exchanges several percent for the privilege of transmitting your fiat payments.

[Kazu]

I've noticed some fun things going on here.

I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

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What are the incentives to spend Bitcoin rather than selling them and spending the Fiat anyway?

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Me
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[vokain]

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what does this say about me!
 but i don't even speak chinese? or, am, for that matter
I do like supporting the community by buying cool things with bitcoin that are worth it

[N12]

Time to bump this thread.

We now know how much business Silk Road had. Is there any Bitcoin business we know of that is comparable?

[Walsoraj]

Time to bump this thread.

We now know how much business Silk Road had. Is there any Bitcoin business we know of that is comparable?

Illicit or legit? Nothing but bodega shops int he latter category.

[N12]

Even illicit would interest me.