Skeptical of the skeptics...

[billyjoeallen]

You just can't argue with nitwits like this. It's competition between rival speculators that produces stability. Buying low and selling high keeps the price in the middle.

You mean like the 35% swing on tuesday/wednesday? Yeah, it's working fantastic Sherlock.

There's no short-selling options (puts) to cover. Gotta have the tools to do the job, Watson.

Oh wait, so you actually concede it's not working right now? Impeccable logic.

Something that isn't happening isn't working. Because it isn't happening. Duh.
When short-selling is enabled to a large degree, we will see more short-selling and less volatility.

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[Herodes]

There are three kinds of people in this world, which one are you:


The ones that WATCH THINGS HAPPEN,
The ones that MAKE THINGS HAPPEN,
and the ones look around and say WHAT HAPPENED???

[asdf]

2) The dollar IS just paper, man. It's an important philosophical, economic, and moral issue. Expressing antagonism toward a monetary system which is inflated at whim at the expense of those who are coerced into holding it is a very reasonable position to take, IMO.

Oh dear, I suspect you might be one of the nutter-butters I was referring to.  Here, write this down:  The USD isn't going anywhere.  It's not 1895, you don't need to trade your greenbacks for shiny metal anymore.  Controlled inflation is a good thing, not a bad thing.

It's puzzling to me that so many people involved with a cutting-edge electronic currency project are so economically primitive.

Hey, good argument! My turn...

The USD is finished; nobody wants to hold a hot potato. Controlled inflation is a bad thing, not a good thing.

I puzzles me how so many people can make baseless assertions, while being so derogatory and self righteous.

[Giraffe.BC]

Hey, good argument! My turn...

The USD is finished; nobody wants to hold a hot potato. Controlled inflation is a bad thing, not a good thing.

I puzzles me how so many people can make baseless assertions, while being so derogatory and self righteous.

The difference is that my "baseless" assertions actually match reality.  You and your "OMG the USD is dooooomed!!!" brethren are just spreading FUD based on wishful thinking and a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics.  And probably more than a little greed, as I'm guessing many of you bought gold at absurdly high prices in anticipation of a collapse that's never coming.

[Nescio]

You and your "OMG the USD is dooooomed!!!" brethren are just spreading FUD based on wishful thinking and a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics.

I don't think there are a lot of people wishing for the complete and utter demise of the USD as that will have global consequences. Nevertheless, it's a real possibility the way things are going.

And probably more than a little greed, as I'm guessing many of you bought gold at absurdly high prices in anticipation of a collapse that's never coming.

You might be right on the second part, a collapse can be prevented by what they are trying to do right now. Raise the debt ceiling and socialize the debt. (Most) US citizens will earn less and less and move towards Chinese wages/standard of living ($2000 a year or something, last I heard). This basically means a reinstatement of feudalism, citizens will work for food and a place to live with little chance of saving anything, just like the Chinese factory wage slaves do now. It's possible, and seemingly in progress already, but obviously not exactly desirable.

Investing in gold will not prevent any of that BTW, there will be plenty of laws to divest you eventually. Maybe there is a chance if you settle elsewhere, provided they don't manage to do the same there. Learn Chinese possibly

[foggyb]

You and your "OMG the USD is dooooomed!!!" brethren are just spreading FUD based on wishful thinking and a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics.

Then I suppose the meaning and implication of runaway debt is completely lost to you.

US debt will not be paid off. It can't be paid off. NO AMOUNT of taxation, reasonable or otherwise, can put a dent in the US's ocean of debt.

That means a DEFAULT, an overnight trashing of the dollar's value (20-30% inflation in less than a year, it happened to the UK in 1975), large increases in gas and food price, and widespread unemployment of perhaps 30%.

Oh, and world reserve currency status? Say goodbye to it. That will be a killer blow to the USD.

This is coming within a few years at the most, and there is nothing anyone can do about it, except get out of US dollar assets.

[SmokeAndMirrors]

all new things are likely to fail.

I stopped reading here. This quote was probably mentioned and true quite sometime back when neanderthals ruled the earth. Saying something like this now is just retardant( ).

[makomk]

US debt will not be paid off. It can't be paid off. NO AMOUNT of taxation, reasonable or otherwise, can put a dent in the US's ocean of debt.

That means a DEFAULT, an overnight trashing of the dollar's value (20-30% inflation in less than a year, it happened to the UK in 1975), large increases in gas and food price, and widespread unemployment of perhaps 30%.

Oh, and world reserve currency status? Say goodbye to it. That will be a killer blow to the USD.

A good argument, with only one minor issue... why would the US need to pay the debt off in the first place, and how would this lead to a default? US national debt is actually relatively small as a percentage of GDP right now, both compared to historic levels and to other countries. The only thing putting them in any danger of defaulting whatsoever in the imminent future is the Republican's assholish refusal to increase the debt ceiling, and even that's incredibly unlikely to happen.

[EhVedadoOAnonimato]

It's puzzling to me that so many people involved with a cutting-edge electronic currency project are so economically primitive.

"Economically primitive", LOL!

My friend, save yourself the humiliation and go learn some true economics, please. Read some Mises, Hayek, Rothbard. Throw away all your Keynesian crap.

[Nescio]

A good argument, with only one minor issue... why would the US need to pay the debt off in the first place, and how would this lead to a default?

If the US says they aren't going to pay the Chinese, or invent some financial vehicle around it (like inflating the USD into nothingness), the Chinese will retaliate by dumping US treasury bonds. That will default the US without any US say in it. If you say that doesn't matter, then what do you think will happen to Chinese imports? What will happen to the US economy if all the shelves start to resemble the soviet era eastern block? The only thing preventing this is China not wanting a sudden manufacturing collapse either. But eventually they will get to a point where they don't need the US export anymore and other interests will matter more (Taiwan for example).

US national debt is actually relatively small as a percentage of GDP right now,

That depends on whose numbers you believe. Even the cooked numbers say 85% in 2009, 95% in 2010. QE and raising the debt ceiling makes sure it will be over 100% this year.

both compared to historic levels and to other countries.

Heh, the US debt is at a historic high, the US has the largest amount of debt in absolute terms (larger than the whole Euro zone together) and if you exclude tax havens and maybe the UK only a few catastrophies like Iceland, Greece and some IMF colonized African countries come near in relative terms. If you believe some conspiracy sites, the US debt per person is something like 400,000 USD currently. Good luck repaying that by going into more debt (what do you think raising the debt ceiling is good for?).

[Giraffe.BC]

You and your "OMG the USD is dooooomed!!!" brethren are just spreading FUD based on wishful thinking and a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics.

Then I suppose the meaning and implication of runaway debt is completely lost to you.

US debt will not be paid off. It can't be paid off. NO AMOUNT of taxation, reasonable or otherwise, can put a dent in the US's ocean of debt.

That means a DEFAULT, an overnight trashing of the dollar's value (20-30% inflation in less than a year, it happened to the UK in 1975), large increases in gas and food price, and widespread unemployment of perhaps 30%.

Oh, and world reserve currency status? Say goodbye to it. That will be a killer blow to the USD.

This is coming within a few years at the most, and there is nothing anyone can do about it, except get out of US dollar assets.

Within a few years at most, huh?  You remind me of that guy Camping, who recently predicted the end of the world.  May 21 came and went, and strangely he didn't admit that he was completely wrong.  I doubt you will either when, say twenty years from now or so, you look around and realize everything is still pretty much the same.  No big collapse, no economic apocaplyse (except that gold is back down at $800 an ounce or so, so all the goldbugs lost a ton buying high and refusing to sell), just normal growth and inflation.

Doomsday nuts always seem to forget all their confident assertions as soon as they're proven wrong.



[/quote]

[foggyb]

You remind me of that guy Camping, who recently predicted the end of the world.

99.9999% of all humanity knew Harold Camping was wrong.

I dare you to find five economic experts who agree that US economic health will improve going forward.

Also please note: if the US economy crashes, its not the end of the world, but the end of an era.

[billyjoeallen]

Nobody is more bearing on the long-term American economy than I am, but that doesn't mean hyperinflation is inevitable. A deflationary death spiral is going to happen absent considerable Fed/Treasury intervention (massive money printing). Real estate and labor (wages) are already in a serious deflationary trend. 

Holding physical dollars is the best play if you think one of the TBTFs (such as Bank America) is going down. Considering how overleveraged they are, this is a real possibility.  The majority of dollars, those held in electronic ledgers at banks, would evaporate as the fractional reserve money multiplier works in reverse.  I call this scenario The Great Unwinding.

Bitcoin still has a major roll to play, because if the SHTF, capital controls will be imposed.

[Litt]

OP. Will you be my friend? Because you spoke exactly as my thought process of knowing and understanding bitcoins' main feature that sets it apart with how you compared it with "flight".

All we need to know about bitcoin is that it can indeed "FLY". We don't need to know how fast and how high yet, because we've already learned how to break the barrier of "FLIGHT". All we need now it to make HARDER, BETTER, FASTER, and STRONGER. That will surely come with time. It's not like we are gonna forget how to FLY now that we know how. No matter how much these "skeptics" may want you to believe.

[evoorhees]

all new things are likely to fail.

I stopped reading here. This quote was probably mentioned and true quite sometime back when neanderthals ruled the earth. Saying something like this now is just retardant( ).

Maybe you shouldn't stop reading as soon as a disagreeable point is made, for you may find such a point to be supported by reasoning following the making of said point =)

I said that all new things are likely to fail because it's true. New stuff tends to fail. New businesses, new products, new ideas. The tendency is to fail, and only a minority of them succeed after being tested in the real world. I didn't realize such an observation was contentious?

Statistically speaking, Bitcoin is likely to fail purely because it is new and revolutionary. However, the more one analyzes Bitcoin, the more sound it appears to be. The world will be a much better place if it succeeds... and good riddance to fiat.

[foggyb]

that doesn't mean hyperinflation is inevitable. A deflationary death spiral is going to happen absent considerable Fed/Treasury intervention.

The majority of dollars, those held in electronic ledgers at banks, would evaporate as the fractional reserve money multiplier works in reverse. 

No, not inevitable.  But why would the Fed ever consider backing off with intervention? They know Americans will turn on them if they stop the flow of new money. Since most Americans are in debt, deflation will hurt them just as much as inflation.

[Nescio]

I doubt you will either when, say twenty years from now or so, you look around and realize everything is still pretty much the same.  No big collapse, no economic apocaplyse (except that gold is back down at $800 an ounce or so, so all the goldbugs lost a ton buying high and refusing to sell), just normal growth and inflation.

You do realize that if that 'normal' rate of inflation continues for twenty years as is, the $800 will have become $3200, right? Gold at $1500 now seems a pretty good investment then

Massaged inflation numbers in red, actual in blue, from http://www.shadowstats.com:

A deflationary death spiral is going to happen absent considerable Fed/Treasury intervention (massive money printing).

A deflationary spiral is already happening worldwide, it's just hidden beneath bogus statistics and stimulus packages that temporarily make it appear everything is going well, but in reality are only making things worse. Those packages come from going deeper into debt, which will have its price. The sad truth is, if the Fed does nothing, there will be a sudden crash, if they continue the massive money printing, there will be a long, drawn out one (also see 1920/1921 followed by the roaring twenties vs. the great depression, followed by hyperinflation and WWII..). The sudden crash is better for everybody, even those who stand to lose most from it (politicians/banksters), they just don't want to know it.

None of this is being helped by institutions like Goldman Sachs being allowed to make the same gambits over and over again with impunity (latest example: collude with corrupt Greek politicians to hide Greece's debt while betting against them on the side), and getting bailed out if it backfires.

Holding physical dollars is the best play if you think one of the TBTFs (such as Bank America) is going down.

That logic is mindboggling. Massive money printing, in your own words, will make your Dollars worth more than something they don't massively devalue? If the TBTFs do fail, the first thing to go is the USD. No amount of printing will help that, only accelerate (hyperinflation).

BTW, the off-book debts that are coming out also exist in the US, the UK and the rest of the Eurozone, but they are by far the largest in the US. Hence the ~400k USD debt per capita instead of the so far officially acknowledged ~45k.

If you think gold is in a bubble, at least invest in oil, grain, fresh water or something else that will retain its value then. USD is not that something (neither is the Euro, and definitely not the GBP). I wouldn't actually advise investing in Bitcoin either because that's even more risky right now, but if I had to choose between BTC and USD, I'd take BTC.

And this isn't investment advice, I'm not qualified to give it etc.

[billyjoeallen]

Nobody is more bearing on the long-term American economy than I am, but that doesn't mean hyperinflation is inevitable. A deflationary death spiral is going to happen absent considerable Fed/Treasury intervention (massive money printing). Real estate and labor (wages) are already in a serious deflationary trend. 

Holding physical dollars is the best play if you think one of the TBTFs (such as Bank America) is going down. Considering how overleveraged they are, this is a real possibility.  The majority of dollars, those held in electronic ledgers at banks, would evaporate as the fractional reserve money multiplier works in reverse.  I call this scenario The Great Unwinding.

Bitcoin still has a major roll to play, because if the SHTF, capital controls will be imposed.

The Fed may well intervene. The reason why they may not:
1. because QE2 did fuck-all to lower unemployment and stabilize prices, the two mandates of the Fed.
2. They have to consider the political environment with Ron Paul head of the monetary subcommittee and all-time unpopularity.
3. They could trigger hyperinflation or at least inflation that negates all the positive benefits of money printing (such as lower short-term interest rates). remember the Fed gets it's power from the ability to create money out of thin air. If the dollar became worthless, the FED would be ruined. Paul Volker jacked rates to 20% and threw the entire country into recession circa 1980 to prevent just that scenario from playing out.
4. Money printing could actually raise interest rates if the bond market demands a greater risk premium and real rather than nominal ROI.

What is most likely is that the Fed WILL intervene, but not enough to quell the deflationary pressures.

[hashman]

Again, think longterm.  Say all the initial bitcoins have been handed out, and all that is happening is trading.  Let's say, for purposes of example, that everyone earns a salary in this bitcoin economy.  If each person keeps doing what they do every day, just population growth will increase the amount of economic activity.  Since there are no new bitcoins, the total salary distributed must stay the same, so the per-person salary goes down.  We can't all have constant salaries and there being more of us each day.  In normal times, to population growth you'd have to add additional economic activity (those investments had better do something), which only worsens the problem.  Demand for bitcoins doesn't have to grow without limit: it simply has to grow past the moment when no new bitcoins are generated.

As for the negative-interest loan, you could offer that, and for the whole community, it would be beneficial that you did, but as an individual, you'd be a fool for taking a risk to with a lower reward than taking no risk at all.  Perhaps there are a few altruistic souls out there (think 10,000 BTC pizza), but we can't rely on banker altruism for the well-functioning of an economy.

Interesting.  I never really realized how an inflationary system is required for predatory (profitable) lending.  Well you can make the point that inflationary money encourages spending.. but that doesn't mean it is better because you haven't finished the logical argument.  Perhaps the economy would be better off if we only spend money on things we actually needed.  If you can show me that we would be better off in some way by spending quickly and not hoarding then perhaps I would be convinced. 

Anyway, I love the way btcs have got us all learning about economics!

   

 

[anu]

but the model of exponentially-increasing difficulty is just foolish. 

If the difficulty would increase exponentially, we'd reach the maximum difficulty very quickly. Difficulty is periodically recalibrated so that block generation takes about 10 minutes. The difficulty can also go down, if fewer people find mining worthwile.

-Anu