I have some savings in US dollars and want to convert them in my national currency,but i`m waiting for the US dollar to become more expensive.Will this happend this year?What will be the factors behind such price increase?If the USD increase it`s value ,how it will influence bitcoin and altcoins prices?
I have my own theory about this,but i want to hear other people`s opinions.
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Basics: The value of the dollar is tied to the state of the economy of the USA. If the US economy strengthens, jobs are created, economic policies refined, debt reduced and other positive circumstances arise, the US dollar is likely to rise in value. The same applies to the opposite. If the US economy weakens, and debt increases, the value of the dollar should decline.
Then there's another aspect to the equation which factors in supply and demand. Many nations engage in a form of currency manipulation whereby they purchase the currency of other nations to weaken their own currency in relation to it. An example of this is china buying the US dollar(increasing demand, increases price) to weaken their own currency the yuan in comparison to the dollar. This has a net effect of boosting exports.
If you're interested in making your own projections, the above might be a decent place to start.
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I think a majority of professional analysts are predicting the US dollar to decline in 2018. I can't remember if they also predicted the stock market to fail after Donald Trump took office. Analysts did badly mess up the last amazon stock estimate. I haven't been keeping track but its possible analyst estimates aren't as reliable as they used to be, and so it might be good to take whatever they say with a bit of salt.