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americandesi
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August 12, 2013, 06:02:53 PM |
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I hope the new blades are a bit more user friendly. I actually thought about ordering an old blade, but decided against it because it just seems like a giant PITA to get working. Basically, for an old blade, the user needs to: - Hack up an ATX power supply to power the blade. - Come up with some sort of mounting solution for the board. - Supply your own fans. - Connect and config via an ethernet connection. - Run a stratum proxy on a host computer. Basically, running at 13 GHs with an old blade seems to require a bunch of kludges. Hopefully, with a new blade you'll be able to connect to a computer via USB, connect the blade to a power supply using a standard connector, fire up cgminer and mine away. Am I expecting too much?  I disagree with this partly. Probably USB might be the easiest but it has its share of headaches. I feel USB's have lesser uptime as compared to connecting the blades using the ethernet cable. I have had multiple blades in the past and now i have a couple of blades along with a bunch of USB BE's running out of the same host. When comparing both, i feel the hashrate and uptime that i get from the blade is tad bit higher as compared to the USB BE's and i have had my share of headaches (problems with other USB devices including my keyboard and mouse) when installing the zadig driver to turn my USB's to COM ports for the cgminer to see it. I have had my blades running for like 2+ months now and the last downtime was like 7 days or so ago (that too because my host computer crashed) and have powered all the blades using the corsair CX 750M and the PSU has been rock solid. Fans will be necessary even for the new blades. On the other hand, USB's keep getting kicked out now and then.. If you follow this extensive guide, then it is seamless and cost efficient. - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205369.0I would have brought more blades but i don't have a place to keep the new rig unless i move to a bigger apartment + the current price of the old blade hardly ROI's. And with the current pricing of the blades, i don't think it would be a wise decision to move apts just for this. |
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americandesi
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August 12, 2013, 06:43:52 PM |
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It depends on what is your priority. For me, i want my rig to run with atleast 99.5% uptime without me bothering to check on it every now and then. I don't want the drivers / cgminer to crash and the host requiring my intervention. I have changed the config of the rig since the pics and nw it can hold atleast 4 blades per stand. At the moment, my setup is more of less like a 24/7 operation. I hardly spend time maintaining it. Look at my setup here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205369.msg2346339#msg2346339 |
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kendog77
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August 12, 2013, 07:09:51 PM |
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It depends on what is your priority. For me, i want my rig to run with atleast 99.5% uptime without me bothering to check on it every now and then. I don't want the drivers / cgminer to crash and the host requiring my intervention. I have changed the config of the rig since the pics and nw it can hold atleast 4 blades per stand. At the moment, my setup is more of less like a 24/7 operation. I hardly spend time maintaining it. Look at my setup here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205369.msg2346339#msg2346339I like your setup, but I'm sure you spent a good amount of time putting that together. It looks like the next bitcoin diffculty is going to go from 37 million to over 51 million in the next day or so! I'm not buying anything else until the difficulty levels out a bit. The difficulty is currently increasing at an alarming rate, so either the value of bitcoin needs to rise or else we're about to see a serious ASIC mining hardware price bubble pop... http://bitcoindifficulty.com |
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americandesi
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August 12, 2013, 07:13:30 PM |
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It depends on what is your priority. For me, i want my rig to run with atleast 99.5% uptime without me bothering to check on it every now and then. I don't want the drivers / cgminer to crash and the host requiring my intervention. I have changed the config of the rig since the pics and nw it can hold atleast 4 blades per stand. At the moment, my setup is more of less like a 24/7 operation. I hardly spend time maintaining it. Look at my setup here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205369.msg2346339#msg2346339I like your setup, but I'm sure you spent a good amount of time putting that together. It looks like the next bitcoin diffculty is going to go from 37 million to over 51 million in the next day or so! I'm not buying anything else until the difficulty levels out a bit. The difficulty is currently increasing at an alarming rate, so either the value of bitcoin needs to rise or else we're about to see a serious ASIC mining hardware price bubble pop... http://bitcoindifficulty.comThank you.! Yes indeed i did spend some time. +1 with regards to the difficulty. The btc rates have been stagnant (in and around $100) for over a month now. |
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newguy05
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August 13, 2013, 05:36:08 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2013, 06:14:07 AM by newguy05 |
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10 btc for 13 gh sounded like an insanely good deal until you look at the numbers.
1) we are at 50million difficulty from 37million, 35% gap up for the most recent 2016 blocks
2) based on this if we keep a steady 35% difficulty increase, we are looking at a profitability decline of 0.00000029 over 12 months. This means the blades are unprofitable even at 10 btc.
The argument can be made that it's unrealistic to assume 35% difficulty increase every 2016 block and it will level off. I agree but i think we are just getting started and far off from leveling off. We have all those asic hardwares yet to come online around oct - year end, not to mention those who owns the asic chips will bring their own mining farm online in addition to selling the asic as retail.
In my opinion the 35% gap per difficulty increase over 12 months is pretty conservative and not a crazy number, we will have gap ups that exceed 35% and those below 35% it eventually evens out. I think after 12 months we may finally see some signs of leveling off as all the new asic are finally on the market, and the sell price of those hardware will pretty much equal to the cost of manufacturing them unless bitcoin/usd prices go up significantly.
The part that really scares me is we havent even began shipping asic hardware en masses yet. It takes a great deal of self control, but i am holding back ordering those asic blades even at 10 btc. The numbers dont lie...unlike avalon/bfl.
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bclcjunkie
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August 13, 2013, 07:07:52 AM |
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there's always a sucker born every minute and now more like every 30 seconds...  Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, well the rest you already know... 10 btc for 13 gh sounded like an insanely good deal until you look at the numbers.
1) we are at 50million difficulty from 37million, 35% gap up for the most recent 2016 blocks
2) based on this if we keep a steady 35% difficulty increase, we are looking at a profitability decline of 0.00000029 over 12 months. This means the blades are unprofitable even at 10 btc.
The argument can be made that it's unrealistic to assume 35% difficulty increase every 2016 block and it will level off. I agree but i think we are just getting started and far off from leveling off. We have all those asic hardwares yet to come online around oct - year end, not to mention those who owns the asic chips will bring their own mining farm online in addition to selling the asic as retail.
In my opinion the 35% gap per difficulty increase over 12 months is pretty conservative and not a crazy number, we will have gap ups that exceed 35% and those below 35% it eventually evens out. I think after 12 months we may finally see some signs of leveling off as all the new asic are finally on the market, and the sell price of those hardware will pretty much equal to the cost of manufacturing them unless bitcoin/usd prices go up significantly.
The part that really scares me is we havent even began shipping asic hardware en masses yet. It takes a great deal of self control, but i am holding back ordering those asic blades even at 10 btc. The numbers dont lie...unlike avalon/bfl.
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CoinHoarder
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1026
In Cryptocoins I Trust
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August 13, 2013, 07:14:09 AM |
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ASICMINER hardware has from its inception been a hardly break even, or negative expectation as far as ROI.
Why would they sell them for what they could mine with them? They should just mine with them in that case. Instead, they place the price higher than what they think they can mine with them and sell them to as many suckers as possible.
And it worked... it is truly genius!
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Damnsammit
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August 13, 2013, 02:25:10 PM |
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ASICMINER hardware has from its inception been a hardly break even, or negative expectation as far as ROI.
Why would they sell them for what they could mine with them? They should just mine with them in that case. Instead, they place the price higher than what they think they can mine with them and sell them to as many suckers as possible.
And it worked... it is truly genius!
Indeed! People look at the current calculator and say "13GH/s will net me 0.17BTC a day! This thing will pay itself off in less than 2 months!" And they never think to look at the difficulty increases and how that will effect them. |
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nottm28
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August 13, 2013, 02:40:07 PM |
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Indeed! People look at the current calculator and say "13GH/s will net me 0.17BTC a day! This thing will pay itself off in less than 2 months!"
Eh, if it's 2 months without difficulty adjustments, it can't be that bad with, right? I can't find a good calculator, almost all of them either want to factor in USD cost of hardware or do not have a difficulty increase field, which is really retarded. Tried this one http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php |
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Rival
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August 13, 2013, 02:41:23 PM |
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You will never again be able to order an ASIC that can pay for itself in a year. This talk of ROI is now pretty much meaningless because it no longer exists. Nothing built by anyone can ever pay for itself with the sheer amount of hash coming to market.
Buy a miner because you enjoy mining. You may make a profit someday in fiat terms due to increases of exchange rates, but in nominal terms you are better off just buying BTC and sitting on them. This game is over.
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reactor
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August 13, 2013, 02:57:47 PM |
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Still waiting for new blade info while suckers buy USBs and old blades with no possibility of ROI short of reselling to bigger suckers. Ahh BTC.
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nottm28
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August 13, 2013, 02:59:01 PM |
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americandesi
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August 13, 2013, 03:03:33 PM |
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No. You are calculating 40% increase per month. With all the ASICs coming online, it would be 30 - 40% per increasewhich happens every 10 - 12 days. |
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Damnsammit
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August 13, 2013, 03:11:05 PM |
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What a fucking retarded calculator. Please just stop.
Do not compare USD.
You pay 10+ BTC and the calculator says it's a break-even at 8.7 BTC.
But if BTC value goes up then it's like you made 50BTC at the current rates!!! OMGOMGOMGZ /end sarcasm |
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nottm28
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August 13, 2013, 03:15:07 PM |
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No. You are calculating 40% increase per month. With all the ASICs coming online, it would be 30 - 40% per increasewhich happens every 10 - 12 days. It's 17 weeks ROI at 95% per month... |
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nottm28
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August 13, 2013, 03:17:11 PM |
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Removed my post because the calculator settings were using a fixed value for BTC/USD, so for once my criticism did not apply.
However the blade certainly costs more than 900 USD.
Ah good point - I was thinking pounds not dollars... |
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Damnsammit
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August 13, 2013, 03:20:49 PM |
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Why does that calculator only change difficulty every month?
Difficulty is adjusted every 2 weeks, isn't it?
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g83
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August 13, 2013, 04:06:33 PM |
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I think it is not automatically updated. The webmaster has to change it...
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