Why MP is your God.

[MPOE-PR]

Since some of the noobs here have no idea Bitcoin is MP's world and you're all just living in it, while also being much too lazy to do their own research, let me gather some points together here for everyone's convenient quick reference. It is, after all, what I'm paid to do: make it convenient for y'all.

I. The 100 dollar miracle.

On April 3rd, MP says BTC is not worth over 100, and tells people to stop buying.

A week later, and ever since:  



When asked by one of the readers "what value should we expect BTC to stabilize around" his response was "Somewhere around 130. If you're really risk averse go with 100.". This was happening in April. Look at the charts.

Also for your own instruction, compare and contrast:

[2012-07-17 05:52:28] <zab_> pirateat40: you got your reaction, you're awesome, now fix your miss please
[2012-07-17 05:52:45] <gribble> Best bid: 8.2808, Best ask: 8.28131, Bid-ask spread: 0.00051, Last trade: 8.28132, 24 hour volume: 197968, 24 hour low: 7.6, 24 hour high: 9.49
[2012-07-17 05:53:17] <NxTitle> if everyone continues to buy, pirate will eventually run out of money
[2012-07-17 05:53:34] <pirateat40> Yes, Everyone BUY
[2012-07-17 05:53:39] <pirateat40> EVERYONE
[2012-07-17 05:53:43] <NxTitle> pirateat40: lol?
[2012-07-17 05:53:45] <pirateat40> GO!, NOW
[2012-07-17 05:54:01] <pirateat40> The more you buy the more I make.
 
[2012-07-17 05:54:07] <NxTitle> pirateat40: tell me to sell
[2012-07-17 05:54:10] <pirateat40> NxTitle, is just helping me.
[2012-07-17 05:54:13] <zab_> pirateat40: don't do this... don't destroy what you've created
[2012-07-17 05:54:14] <NxTitle> lol
[2012-07-17 05:54:18] <dub> did I pump when it was time to dump?
[2012-07-17 05:54:40] <gribble> Best bid: 8.35999, Best ask: 8.36, Bid-ask spread: 9.99999999962e-06, Last trade: 8.36, 24 hour volume: 198123, 24 hour low: 7.6, 24 hour high: 9.49
[2012-07-17 05:54:43] <Blitzboom> dump and pump scheme
[2012-07-17 05:54:59] <adaqmstgBit> pirateat40 what price would you like us to support?
[2012-07-17 05:55:53] <pirateat40> zab_, this is the first time ive ever played the market.  It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process.  It's simply a warning.
[2012-07-17 05:56:07] <Hexadecibel> Ooo pirate is scary
 
[2012-07-17 05:58:54] <Diablo-D3> !ticker
[2012-07-17 05:58:55] <gribble> Best bid: 8.26102, Best ask: 8.37498, Bid-ask spread: 0.11396, Last trade: 8.37499, 24 hour volume: 198583, 24 hour low: 7.6, 24 hour high: 9.49
[2012-07-17 05:59:33] <NxTitle> pirateat40: how much longer do I have to wait for a gpumax account?
[2012-07-17 05:59:54] <SysErr0r> pirateat40: when will my BFL single arrive?
 
[2012-07-17 06:00:56] <pirateat40> adaqmstgBit, 33% is right.
[2012-07-17 06:01:26] <adaqmstgBit> so 66% of the coins are our own?
 
[2012-07-17 06:02:38] <MC1984> how the dicks has it bounced between 7 and 9
[2012-07-17 06:03:26] <EmanuelDeOrtego> pirate
[2012-07-17 06:03:34] <pirateat40> yes
[2012-07-17 06:03:40] <NxTitle> why
[2012-07-17 06:03:41] <biteylerk> Also he doesn't pass the profit to the incestors - he keeps it for himself. He's a pirate, damn it! Arrr!
[2012-07-17 06:04:12] <Chaaang-Noi> he is the caption of the pirate ship BTCST
 
[2012-07-17 06:04:55] <Xian01> pirateat40, sorry for the off-topic, but I applied for a gpumax account >30 days ago. Are you that backlogged ?
[2012-07-17 06:04:13] <opticbit> can we expect more than 7% in our accounts next monday?
[2012-07-17 06:05:31] <pirateat40> opticbit, as long as I hold your coins.. you'll be paid.
 
[2012-07-17 06:10:51] <Hexadecibel> seriously though, I really, really wish pirate the best. It's been this long, people have had this much warning. You only have yourselves to blame when he runs with your money
[2012-07-17 06:10:57] <Hexadecibel> and he'll deserve every penny
 
[2012-07-17 06:29:31] <wogaut> ok, later!
[2012-07-17 06:34:59] <Xian01> maybe someone should update the topic "Yes, the forums are down. It's not just you"
 
[2012-07-17 06:36:05] <EmanuelDeOrtego> Pireat40, my firm just got me some Mt. Gox dollars in my account.
[2012-07-17 06:36:07] <pirateat40> Last warning....
[2012-07-17 06:36:13] <EmanuelDeOrtego> Continue this selling and I'll buy it up to $10.
[2012-07-17 06:36:17] <EmanuelDeOrtego> Right now.
[2012-07-17 06:36:19] <Gladamas> ;;ticker
[2012-07-17 06:36:20] <gribble> Best bid: 8.08987, Best ask: 8.08988, Bid-ask spread: 1.00000000014e-05, Last trade: 8.08989, 24 hour volume: 203928, 24 hour low: 7.6, 24 hour high: 9.49
[2012-07-17 06:36:28] <Hexadecibel> warning for what?
[2012-07-17 06:36:31] <pirateat40> Sell everything
[2012-07-17 06:36:35] <Hexadecibel> meh
[2012-07-17 06:36:38] <dub> im buying
[2012-07-17 06:36:40] <Hexadecibel> bring to 1
[2012-07-17 06:36:40] <adamstgBit> wait what> "last warning" ??/
[2012-07-17 06:36:50] <EmanuelDeOrtego> He's bluffing guys.
[2012-07-17 06:36:55] <EmanuelDeOrtego> Just buy it all out before I do.
[2012-07-17 06:37:01] <dub> buy high sell low
 
[2012-07-17 06:37:53] <NxTitle> 05:36 < EmanuelDeOrtego> He's bluffing guys.
[2012-07-17 06:37:53] <NxTitle> 05:36 < EmanuelDeOrtego> Just buy it all out before I do.
[2012-07-17 06:38:21] <adamstgBit> lol this is crazy

If you're one of the tl;dr crowd, here's a sum-up (and if not here's the whole pastebin):

Jul 24 05:08:52 <dub>   mircea_popescu: it was in #bitcoin that manipulation shit went down, fuck looking for it
Jul 24 05:15:36 <dub>   mircea_popescu: some of that loss would be during that event though
Jul 24 05:16:07 <dub>   he was raging about the rally, telling people to stop buying or he would fuck the market up
Jul 24 05:16:11 <mircea_popescu>   yeah
Jul 24 05:16:34 <dub>   then sold massively and didnt make a dent in the rally
Jul 24 05:16:35 <mircea_popescu>   kinda ridiculous if you think about it.

II. The mysterious case of the death of Mr. MtGox.

On April 8th,

I would say that on the balance of evidence available, MtGox is more likely to be a scam than a legitimate operation at this point. The trifecta of tight lipped yet deceitful reps ; soft as opposed to hard liabilities coupled with a tendency towards further softening and arbitrary, case-by-case handling of accounts showing extreme sensitivity to public exposure is present and that's enough for my needs.

At this point I would advise anyone against keeping any sums on MtGox overnight, fiat or BTC. Their reaction will probably be to make transfers even slower, in an attempt to discourage capital flight. Take a moment and think things through : if your reason for keeping capital on MtGox is that you don't want to wait for their excessive transfer delays, isn't this in and of itself proof that you really shouldn't be there at all ?

To quote the commenters of today,

Some months later and this is the situation:

- MtGox declared a "withdraw freeze" and nobody could make withdraw requests for two weeks.
- A lot of people report big withdraws made before this freeze still have not come through.
- People have now been waiting 2 months for USD withdraws and 1-3 months for EUR withdraws.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.540

You were spot on ahead of your time.

III. The mysterious death of Mr. GLBSE.

On May 30th, I was saying at his orders,

Nefario: You are obviously unqualified to be anywhere near a project of the complexity of an exchange, even for play money (which I suspect BTC are, for most of you here, at least judging on behavior records). I will make you precisely one offer to buy the thing from you, so you get to actually make some money for all your effort over the past year, as misguided and mismanaged as it may have been, rather than have to walk away from a worthless wreck (like Zou Thong/Amir&co have with Bitcoinica). If you have half the maturity you should have to be involved in all this you will take this offer seriously, and consider your options carefully. Feel free to make contact via pm or in #bitcoin-otc-eu.

Four months later Nefario was scammer tagged. Contrary to what you may think, the tag is because he did walk away with more than his braindamaged project was worth.

IV. The not a currency call.

In October 2012, MP said:

Furthermore, while it is true that Bitcoin may be regarded as an item of value by one or more people, this also is true of the in-game currency of each and every single one game ever released to this date and to be released for the conceivable future. Ruling that indeed Bitcoin constitutes in itself either money or capital in the sense of the Securities Act of 1933 would both retroactively expose all game developers and game players to extensive and burdensome reporting and compliance requirements as well as burden the SEC with an enormous task. Further, it would severely limit and curtail the ability of future game developers to bring computer games to the general public. In either case such extensive re-writing of existing and well understood law can not be the empire of the court system, and unless or until such a time as Congress introduces legislation specifically rendering online in-game currencies legal tender, or otherwise money, or capital this matter can only be laid to rest.

Today, the IRS catches up:

Just in time for tax day (April 15 in the United States), the Internal Revenue Service has issued six pages of guidelines (PDF) detailing how it considers the legality of Bitcoin and other “virtual currencies.”

Specifically, the document, which was published on Tuesday, designates that Bitcoin will be treated for tax purposes as a property and not as a currency.

Note that these four aren't by any means the whole story, they're just the story since April or so, limited to what I could be bothered to document.



This is your God. Bow to him.

The mandatory Why So Serious post scriptum:

May 29 16:03:14 <pigeons>   I just got a solicitation from Matthew N. Wright for a conference he is organizing in Amsterdam.
May 29 16:03:26 <pigeons>   damn mircea_popescu you are right about these conference organizer people
May 29 16:03:54 <mircea_popescu>   eh ?
May 29 16:04:20 <pigeons>   bruce wagner had a conference, we had the intersangro one with nefario, the last one was sponsered by vessenes and now matthew n wright
May 29 16:04:37 <mircea_popescu>   lol
May 29 16:04:41 <mircea_popescu>   you know i also had one.
May 29 16:04:54 <pigeons>   lol
May 29 16:05:29 <mircea_popescu>   mine however was ciuuuuuulll
May 29 16:05:34 <mircea_popescu>   cause it wasn't in schiuuuuullll

[1713946512]

1713946512

[1713946512]

1713946512

[1713946512]

1713946512

[Scott J]

While I have a particular distaste for the choice and fitting of his suits, his opinions are worth paying attention to.

Less ego would help win more people over, but maybe he doesn't really care about that? I find him entertaining nonetheless.

[jasinlee]

*snipped arrogance*


*snipped arrogance*

[niothor]

And I always thought that gypsies come to Romania from India not Egypt.

[narayan]

That would make MPOE-PR my goddess.

[MPOE-PR]

topic=271711.msg2910000#msg2910000

Is there a message hidden in there?

That would make MPOE-PR my goddess.

Moar like priestess.

[rudrigorc2]

Our god needs a better taylor. Why you are wearing your grand fathers, clothez? LOL  

[MPOE-PR]

Our god needs a better taylor. Why you are wearing your grand fathers, clothez? LOL  

Your God wears whatever He so pleaseth.

[velacreations]

should we also post a list of things where you were wrong (like AM, for instance?)

[Loozik]

I. The 100 dollar miracle.

On April 3rd, MP says BTC is not worth over 100, and tells people to stop buying.

1. Why did MP tell people to stop buying at 100 when the price was about to reach 266? Gods are supposed to be all-knowing...

2. Did MP tell people to sell at 266?

[MPOE-PR]

should we also post a list of things where you were wrong (like AM, for instance?)

By all means.

Pretty much the only faith in the world where naysayers are encouraged. This is because they end up supplying the lolz for everyone.

1. Why did MP tell people to stop buying at 100 when the price was about to reach 266? Gods are supposed to be all-knowing...

2. Did MP tell people to sell at 266?

You may be too stupid to understand what's being discussed here. The relationship between what is and what you expect to find seems commensurate with the relation between Botticelli's Venus and urmom. Perhaps your needs'd be better served by some stock picking TV show or w/e.

[Photon939]

Hey, talk enough BS and eventually you will have a list of situations where you guessed correctly. You see a lot of the same in the world of trading.

All I see here is a thread where OP asks for ass-kissing

There's a reason why the ignore button is bright orange

This will be my last reply here, I feel bad enough for bumping this thread once

[ElectricMucus]

Do you get payed extra to post this thread?

[MPOE-PR]

Hey, talk enough BS and eventually you will have a list of situations where you guessed correctly. You see a lot of the same in the world of trading.

All I see here is a thread where OP asks for ass-kissing

There's a reason why the ignore button is bright orange

This will be my last reply here, I feel bad enough for bumping this thread once

You're an idiot, literally. What "enough bs"? There's no bs other than the repugnant idiocy coming out of your keyboard.

Do you get payed extra to post this thread?

Only if the indescript mucus filling all the crevices of the web (aka redditards) gets butthurt enough.

[Loozik]

1. Why did MP tell people to stop buying at 100 when the price was about to reach 266? Gods are supposed to be all-knowing...

2. Did MP tell people to sell at 266?

You may be too stupid to understand [...]

I just asked two questions. Be a dear and answer them. If you do not know the answers to my questions, simply have the courage to admit you'll fail to answer them. If you fail to answer the questions I will not call you stupid.

[MPOE-PR]

1. Why did MP tell people to stop buying at 100 when the price was about to reach 266? Gods are supposed to be all-knowing...

2. Did MP tell people to sell at 266?

You may be too stupid to understand [...]

I just asked two questions. Be a dear and answer them. If you do not know the answers to my questions, simply have the courage to admit you'll fail to answer them. If you fail to answer the questions I will not call you stupid.

Your questions are broken, in that they make mistaken assumptions about the world which renders them unanswerable. That you don't realize this is what makes you stupid. It's not a matter of me calling you so, it's a matter of you being so.

[elor70]

Multy player?

[Loozik]

1. Why did MP tell people to stop buying at 100 when the price was about to reach 266? Gods are supposed to be all-knowing...

2. Did MP tell people to sell at 266?

You may be too stupid to understand [...]

I just asked two questions. Be a dear and answer them. If you do not know the answers to my questions, simply have the courage to admit you'll fail to answer them. If you fail to answer the questions I will not call you stupid.

Your questions are broken, in that they make mistaken assumptions about the world which renders them unanswerable. That you don't realize this is what makes you stupid. It's not a matter of me calling you so, it's a matter of you being so.

You are requested to answer the question, not to write cliches and excuses. Come on. Did MP tell people to sell at 266 or did he not? It is a matter of facts that should be within your knowledge. Failing to answer will not make you stupid; rather uninformed.

[justusranvier]

Something to keep in mind whenever someone bring up past prediction performance is that distinguishing between luck and skill is very difficult.

http://www.ffscambridge.com/blog/post/taleb_on_distinguishing_between_investing_skill_and_random_chance

Consider a group of 10,000 investment managers whose investment success is comparable to that of a fair coin toss. Each manager has a 50-50 chance of making or losing 10% in any year.  At the end of each year the losing managers are thrown out of the game.

After the first year 5,000 managers have made money and the rest have bailed out.  After seven years there will still be 78 managers who have made money continuously, purely on the basis of random chance. Their portfolios are up a total of almost 95% after 7 years.  If these folks then go off and start their own hedge funds, there’s no way to know that their apparent genius was merely luck, and they’ll probably attract a lot of investors.

Now suppose that instead of giving the managers an even chance of making or losing money, we start with a pool of 10,000 relatively incompetent managers. These individuals are more likely to lose money than to make it: they each have a 45% chance of making a profit and a 55% chance of losing money.  At the end there are still 37 fund managers who have made 10% a year for seven years. Even though this group is more likely to lose money than to make it, a few will still run up impressive gains and develop reputations as hot managers.

This demonstrates that if there are lots of fund managers, a certain number of them can look like geniuses when in fact they are merely “lucky,” even if, in reality, they’re moderately incompetent! As Taleb notes, knowing that a manager has an extraordinary investment track records doesn’t tell you anything: “without knowing how many managers out there have tried and failed, we will not be able to assess the validity of the track record.” If the manager population were small, a good track record would be impressive.  But in fact, if you count all the money managers in the U.S. alone, 10,000 underestimates the reality.

[STT]

Our god needs a better taylor. Why you are wearing your grand fathers, clothez? LOL  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=QK8mJJJvaes&t=197