The REAL bubbles

[xxjs]

...or I should say, the baseline is also modified by the long time speculators.

[1713874921]

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[sgbett]

The thing about april 2013.. its never gone anywhere near back to baseline, let alone below. Sure everyone and their uncle saw the exponential rise was unsustainable, but back out a year and the original long term trend seems to be solid.

The low after the ATH was $50?

Does that mean it was only in bubble territory around mid march when we hit $50 for the first time, or maybe even higher.

That would imply that the push from $12 at the backend of last year was fairly legit growth.

I'm about as permabull as you can get but even i cashed out a little on the way up to $200+ cos it seemed overblown.

I think we have reverted, and the past few weeks growth are a resumption of that first phase of growth that took us past the previous ATH of ~$30 not rushing to buy more. Just happy to be a part of it.

As ever it all depends on whether the protocol fails. If it doesn't then all these peaks and troughs are just going to end up looking like the normal gyrations of a typical growth stock in its early days. See you at $1m guys

[xxjs]

If you think that 13 in jan was on the base and 130 in july also, that means the parameters for the exponential baseline is 10x per half year, which means 100 x per year. Sounds a bit too high. 10x per year will still take us to world domination rather quickly. That means 130 by year end.

[deadgiveaway]

Bubbles are artificial 

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

[sukiho]

wrong post, but since Im here and the topic is bubbles I will speculate that we are at the start of the next one now

[S3052]

Bubbles are artificial  

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

That's exactly the point.
And even if all central banks have as number one priority to keep the stock market bubble alive, they can't prevent the bubble from popping big time eventually.
And it will be very nasty.

Dow jones 400 we are coming.

[ElectricMucus]

Bubbles are artificial  

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

That's exactly the point.
And even if all central banks have as number one priority to keep the stock market bubble alive, they can't prevent the bubble from popping big time eventually.
And it will be very nasty.

Dow jones 400 we are coming.

That's like saying 80s fuel prices are coming back. They're not.
The debt based money supply has as much to do with the stock market as it has with any other sector.

The solution is simple: Periodic remittance of loans, be it in the private sector or the financial sector.  And this is happening all the time, cyprus was just one of the more visible ones.
This is something no Libertairan Doomsday Cheerleader is willing to admit: The system actually has mechanisms which can keep it sustainable. You just can't profit from it individually.

[S3052]

Bubbles are artificial  

yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed.

Bitcoin is real.

Indeed.

stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt.

That's exactly the point.
And even if all central banks have as number one priority to keep the stock market bubble alive, they can't prevent the bubble from popping big time eventually.
And it will be very nasty.

Dow jones 400 we are coming.

That's like saying 80s fuel prices are coming back. They're not.
The debt based money supply has as much to do with the stock market as it has with any other sector.

The solution is simple: Periodic remittance of loans, be it in the private sector or the financial sector.  And this is happening all the time, cyprus was just one of the more visible ones.
This is something no Libertairan Doomsday Cheerleader is willing to admit: The system actually has mechanisms which can keep it sustainable. You just can't profit from it individually.

That is your very valid opinion.

I agree to disagree with you.

The system that they have build is not sustainable and will burst dramatically in the next years.

[Walsoraj]

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1


nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.  

-a parable, by sir Walz


¹ see: the magic of compound interest

[ElectricMucus]

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1


nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.  

-a parable, by sir Walz


¹ see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back. Compound interest stops compounding in case of a default or in case of a remittance.

[Walsoraj]

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1


nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.  

-a parable, by sir Walz


¹ see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back.

lulz

ps, economy must grow. loans must grow to make possible. difficulty in repayment will scale with increasing loans.

[ElectricMucus]

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1


nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.  

-a parable, by sir Walz


¹ see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back.

lulz

ps, economy must grow. loans must grow to make possible. difficulty in repayment will scale with increasing loans.

People accept the default of other people, deal with it. That includes banks and central banks.

[Walsoraj]

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1


nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all.  

-a parable, by sir Walz


¹ see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back.

lulz

ps, economy must grow. loans must grow to make possible. difficulty in repayment will scale with increasing loans.

People accept the default of other people, deal with it. That includes banks and central banks.

Competition among nation-states guarantees an unrelenting drive to grow perpetually. This is unsustainable and economic suicide. Refusing to participate in this unhealthy competition among nations is also suicide, as the winners indirectly oppress and devastate the non-participant's economies.

The goal of every viable economy is to endlessly harm itself just enough restart the growth machine. See Orwell's 1984 plz.

deal with it. i am right, you are wrong.

[ElectricMucus]

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1


nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all. 

-a parable, by sir Walz


¹ see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back.

lulz

ps, economy must grow. loans must grow to make possible. difficulty in repayment will scale with increasing loans.

People accept the default of other people, deal with it. That includes banks and central banks.

Competition among nation-states guarantees an unrelenting drive to grow perpetually. This is unsustainable and economic suicide. Refusing to participate in this unhealthy competition among nations is also suicide, as the winners indirectly oppress and devastate the non-participant's economies.

The goal of every viable economy is to endlessly harm itself just enough restart the growth machine. See Orwell's 1984 plz.

deal with it. i am right, you are wrong.

Just like nuclear war is inevitable, and nuclear proliferation won't happen, the cold war gonna kill you all.

Wait, nuclear stockpiles are decreasing since over a decade? Unfathomable!

[notme]

The system requires perpetual economic growth. This is not possible, even at a rate of 0.01%, unless the universe expands at least as fast and we are capable of occupying every empty space.^fn1


nothing grows forever. then the void consumes it all. 

-a parable, by sir Walz


¹ see: the magic of compound interest

It only requires exponential growth if loans are expected to be paid back.

lulz

ps, economy must grow. loans must grow to make possible. difficulty in repayment will scale with increasing loans.

People accept the default of other people, deal with it. That includes banks and central banks.

Competition among nation-states guarantees an unrelenting drive to grow perpetually. This is unsustainable and economic suicide. Refusing to participate in this unhealthy competition among nations is also suicide, as the winners indirectly oppress and devastate the non-participant's economies.

The goal of every viable economy is to endlessly harm itself just enough restart the growth machine. See Orwell's 1984 plz.

deal with it. i am right, you are wrong.

Just like nuclear war is inevitable, and nuclear proliferation won't happen, the cold war gonna kill you all.

Wait, nuclear stockpiles are decreasing dispersing since over a decade? Unfathomable!

FTFY

[ElectricMucus]

Paranoid much?

[notme]

Paranoid much?

So you're claiming there aren't more countries with nukes than a few decades ago?  Sure, overall numbers are down, but the number of countries capable of destroying a continent has increased.

[ElectricMucus]

Paranoid much?

So you're claiming there aren't more countries with nukes than a few decades ago?  Sure, overall numbers are down, but the number of countries capable of destroying a continent has increased.

I don't really know. My opinion about this subject goes like this:
There are piles of nukes and there are piles of idiots, and the probability of nuclear war is directly proportional to the number of piles of nukes times the number of piles of idiots times the discrepancy between the size of the piles. Both of the latter has been decreasing, and I wouldn't argue that the number of idiots gonna come down any time soon.

It could be that I went a bit more optimistic about the current state of affairs since I noticed that the most popular critics of the system do not have the answer either. What I do believe is that most of the time people get along. In the case of nations in economic competition I do think that ultimately the local economies will become relevant again, simply because at a certain point transportation becomes prohibitively expensive.

[molecular]

All im gonna saying is a many will suffer painful loses before any fuckin $1000 day.

many will suffer painful losses after fuckin $1000 day, too

[molecular]

good thread!

me i say 3000$ is the next target

its not hard to see bitcoin worth +1000$ +100000$ ....

 

now we are onto something interesting..

We never discussed about a SPLIT.

Stocks are split regularly, but in BTC this does not really work. Any idea?
If there is no split, BTCUSD will be like Warren Buffet's stock. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Current price 173,220.00 $

We can just split 1 Bitcoin into 1000 bits.