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freedomno1
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August 21, 2013, 10:01:36 PM
 #61

So a speculation track record thread  Cheesy
This will be interesting
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RationalSpeculator
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August 21, 2013, 10:04:00 PM
 #62

So a speculation track record thread  Cheesy
This will be interesting

lol Smiley
freedomno1
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August 21, 2013, 10:10:42 PM
 #63

So a speculation track record thread  Cheesy
This will be interesting

lol Smiley

Imagines the manual tracking through 100's of posts XD
Lol
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August 21, 2013, 10:31:25 PM
 #64


Imagines the manual tracking through 100's of posts XD
Lol

It would be much easier if forecasters posted pictures of their calls.
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August 21, 2013, 11:43:23 PM
 #65


Imagines the manual tracking through 100's of posts XD
Lol

It would be much easier if forecasters posted pictures of their calls.

Yes, even nicer would be a seperate thread for forecasters, where they can make their public prognostications for grading.  If only that would corral them all into one place and those not corralled could be told to post there or not be considered serious, as most seem not to be anyway (the "goin' to the moon" or "worthless monopoly money" etc).
The vain hope is that it would diminish the hubris of imaginings that the future is visible.

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freedomno1
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August 22, 2013, 05:35:21 AM
 #66

Ha-ha you can watch me velcarations dhenson vycid volcaniceruptor icebreaker etc and put them all into a list just using the securities thread  Cheesy
And MPOE-PR

But lets get this started he-he it will be fun having them find this thread later but I'll try to keep it to recent predictions you guys feel free to quote anyone else might be able to make this thread quite amusing if everyone posts predictions of the day and looks back on them months later Cheesy

I can see evil potential here Smiley

Vycid right after Friedcat post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984500#msg2984500


I've already produced a rational argument why you should expect them to attempt to exit. I will repeat it here.

As we saw today, the market cannot support significant sell volume. This is unsurprising, since the share price is buoyed by sentiment and not underlying value. ASICMiner has nowhere near 1.2 million BTC worth of assets and intangibles, so it is impossible for all holders to liquidate the current market value of their shares.

So, if everyone cannot liquidate completely, then it is the first actor who profits most. From a game theoretical perspective, every whale should be searching for the best way to be the first one out without demolishing the value of their own shares.

We have already observed some of that action by the daily filling of the bid wall.


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August 22, 2013, 08:54:12 AM
 #67

Yes, even nicer would be a seperate thread for forecasters, where they can make their public prognostications for grading.

Agreed, I want a forecasters' thread too. I'm almost ready to post my next prediction there.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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August 22, 2013, 09:39:48 AM
 #68

Yes, even nicer would be a seperate thread for forecasters, where they can make their public prognostications for grading.

Agreed, I want a forecasters' thread too. I'm almost ready to post my next prediction there.

This kind of thread should be educational with clear explanation and even maybe charts. Othervise this thread will become lucky guessing thread.

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RationalSpeculator
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August 22, 2013, 09:49:39 AM
 #69

This thread is not meant to make predictions. It is meant to judge and document past predictions, from yourself or others.
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August 22, 2013, 09:56:19 AM
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This thread is not meant to make predictions. It is meant to judge and document past predictions.

I was talking about possible upcoming "forecasting thread" not this one (I was replying to his quote).

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RationalSpeculator
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August 22, 2013, 08:44:34 PM
 #71

27k BTC over at bitstamp, higher than the 21k I've seen the highest so far.

What's most fundamentally significant is of course that as I and many other non-tinfoils suspected, MtGox is just fine and withdrawals are re-enabled, meaning that The Great Dollar Extraction can freely play out now.

You think this is panic? We've seen nothing yet.

Bad call from Blitz. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now at $66 Blitz thinks panic is just starting. He says mtgox withdrawals are fine now and thinks selling will accelerate now that people can withdraw their fiat.

Price bottomed at $65 that same day July 5th and went straight up from there. It closed over $100 already 3 weeks later on July 29th. It continued to go up and by August 19th hit $120 on mtgox, going to premiums of 20% at times over the other exchanges likely due to continued withdrawal problems at mtgox.
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August 22, 2013, 09:11:30 PM
 #72

Hi! I'm no day trader. But here's some self-aggrandizement anyways. I've made a number of longer term predictions on this site that still lie in the future. But I do nominate myself for this prediction:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250577.msg2823035#msg2823035

wherein I predicted on 7/12/13 the price would be $103 on 7/31. $103 was about the average price between Mt Gox and Bitstamp that day, though it was quite volatile around it.

So that's one of out one predictions that lie in the past Smiley

monkeybars +1

I'm not sure what the price was when you made that prediction but the average price for that day July 12th was $96. Predicting the price will go to $103 2/3 weeks later seems too close a price to be of much value.  I agree it was the right call but not worth mentioning in the list in my opinion.
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August 22, 2013, 11:25:22 PM
 #73

When does it peak? Keep going after 60?
I believe it will. It will grow forever or fail to zero (if someone destroys internet). Looks like peak will be above $200 (this year), but then may be fall.

Great call by Odalv. On February 22, 2013, when the exponential rise had been going on already for almost 2 months and price was at $28 he predicts it to go above $200. Indeed it topped 1,5 month later at $266 on April 10th after which it collapsed. A very accurate call made very early helping others to hold.

He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:
note: he cancelled this call here
HeliKopterBen
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August 23, 2013, 12:46:19 AM
 #74

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=251757.msg2674442#msg2674442

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Rampion
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August 23, 2013, 08:20:11 AM
 #75

Waking up to see this ...another completely failed rally attempt... I think there might be some panic today
60's on their way soon ... have to say, I didn't think it would happen so quickly
What do you think Rampion and IAS ?

Well, I had a bid at $71ish that wasn't filled for a few cents (unfortunately, the bounce from $72 was very profitable for those who caught it), and I pulled it. Didn't catch it the first time, I won't be trying to catch a falling knife for the second time in the $70s for sure.

I may play a bounce in the $60s, but with a smallish position. Its risky.

I will for sure play the bounce from the $50ish with significant money, that its going to be nice action indeed.

I still see too much denial for the very bottom to be close, but it's also true that these forums are über-bullish by nature (its bitcointalk.org), so I don't really know how good indicator they are.

This was a bad call. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now in the $70's Rampion thinks price will go down even more to $50's. He says he does not buy at current price around $70 and might buy a little in $60's.

Price dropped to only $65 that day July 5th and strongly recovered the days and weeks after to $111 by July 31st.



I was wrong about the price going to the '50s in that moment, but how was buying some coins in the '60s to play the bounce (to $110, as you pointed out) a bad call? It made me money.

I'm considering selling all of mine at the market price of $175, and waiting to see what happens next. Its so hard to decide lol. What if it hits $200? etc.

You are in BTC because of fiat profits? SELL SELL SELL

You are in BTC because of freedom? HOLD HOLD HOLD

Every BTC sold goes from weak hands to stronger hands. Just do it!

This was a bad call. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold.

2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165.

It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.

This is lame. I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong), and you nitpick a trolly post I wrote? Anyhow I stand correct in what I told the guy - if you are in BTC because of fiat profits, then SELL (that was a very good moment to sell for FIAT profits, right?). If you are in BTC because of something deeper (monetary freedom) - then HOLD and fuck the exchange rate.

Anyhow, this is a fun (and useful) initiative - but me, Blitz, Cypherdoc, Odalv, etc. have made dozens (if not hundreds) of calls and here you are cherry-picking a lot, selecting very few, which makes this thread incomplete and biased. I think it would be cool if you'd do an exhaustive recount of all the calls - I guess its almost an impossible job for the past (tens of k's of posts to be read, etc.) but maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on.

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August 23, 2013, 11:20:38 AM
 #76

I made a pretty good call in November 2012, predicting a rocket would ignite within 1 to 3 months. As we all know, it did indeed take off 2 months later.

I'm pretty proud of this call because it was well-argued and of course because it was correct Wink. I would feel honored if it was listed.


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RationalSpeculator
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August 23, 2013, 11:45:07 AM
 #77

my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited

my rational mind tries to find explanations for the intuition:

  • ECB Paper, ZeroHedge coverage / ... taps whole new reservoir of potential supporters and enemies, this might initiate wider public/academic discussion
  • I see an above-average amount of newbs trickling in that seem to be quite educated and understanding already (not your typical gamer kid)
  • Market turmoil ahead with the reward halving
  • Long consolidation period has been going on
  • Ongoing and increasing distrust of fiat money and banking system amongst the general population
  • Bitcoin fundamentally rocksolid and more and more people "get it"
  • All this taken together might push bitcoin beyond the next "critical mass" checkpoint of adoption / public awareness within the next 1-3 months.
  • ...
  • rocket ignition

don't jump off Wink

Great call by molecular. Although no price target is given, he predicts it to go up a lot very soon, gives rational arguments to support his case and advises others to hold. Indeed average price that day November 5th 2012 was $10.73 and has not been seen again. Price went straight up from there for 5 months in a row peaking out at $266 on April 10th 2013.  
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August 23, 2013, 11:55:07 AM
 #78

I made a pretty good call in November 2012, predicting a rocket would ignite within 1 to 3 months. As we all know, it did indeed take off 2 months later.

I'm pretty proud of this call because it was well-argued and of course because it was correct Wink. I would feel honored if it was listed.



Great call indeed, thanks for bringing to my attention, I listed it.

Since you have posted a lot. Did you make bad/horrible calls too?

I'd like the list to be a fair representation of one's track record.
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August 23, 2013, 12:04:14 PM
 #79

I made a pretty good call in November 2012, predicting a rocket would ignite within 1 to 3 months. As we all know, it did indeed take off 2 months later.

I'm pretty proud of this call because it was well-argued and of course because it was correct Wink. I would feel honored if it was listed.



Great call indeed, thanks for bringing to my attention, I listed it.

Since you have posted a lot. Did you make bad/horrible calls too?

I'd like the list to be a fair representation of one's track record.

Of course I made some bad calls, too, because I'm generally ultra-bullish. But honestly: I can't find one I put as much weight into as the above one. I will try to find a bad call...

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RationalSpeculator
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August 23, 2013, 01:09:02 PM
 #80

Waking up to see this ...another completely failed rally attempt... I think there might be some panic today
60's on their way soon ... have to say, I didn't think it would happen so quickly
What do you think Rampion and IAS ?

Well, I had a bid at $71ish that wasn't filled for a few cents (unfortunately, the bounce from $72 was very profitable for those who caught it), and I pulled it. Didn't catch it the first time, I won't be trying to catch a falling knife for the second time in the $70s for sure.

I may play a bounce in the $60s, but with a smallish position. Its risky.

I will for sure play the bounce from the $50ish with significant money, that its going to be nice action indeed.

I still see too much denial for the very bottom to be close, but it's also true that these forums are über-bullish by nature (its bitcointalk.org), so I don't really know how good indicator they are.

This was a bad call. While price had been dropping for 3 weeks in a row coming from $110, and was now in the $70's Rampion thinks price will go down even more to $50's. He says he does not buy at current price around $70 and might buy a little in $60's.

Price dropped to only $65 that day July 5th and strongly recovered the days and weeks after to $111 by July 31st.



I was wrong about the price going to the '50s in that moment, but how was buying some coins in the '60s to play the bounce (to $110, as you pointed out) a bad call? It made me money.


You are now misrepresenting the call made. Your call was not to buy some coins in the 60's. It was to maybe buy some coins in the 60's, but you found it to be risky.

If you are unable to see that this call was overall a bad call, you are incapable of critical self analysis. I strongly suspect this to be the case with you, just like I think this to be the case with cypherdoc too.

This is much worse than making a bad call as critical self analyses is the only way to learn and improve.


I'm considering selling all of mine at the market price of $175, and waiting to see what happens next. Its so hard to decide lol. What if it hits $200? etc.

You are in BTC because of fiat profits? SELL SELL SELL

You are in BTC because of freedom? HOLD HOLD HOLD

Every BTC sold goes from weak hands to stronger hands. Just do it!

This was a bad call. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold.

2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165.

It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.

This is lame. I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong), and you nitpick a trolly post I wrote? Anyhow I stand correct in what I told the guy - if you are in BTC because of fiat profits, then SELL (that was a very good moment to sell for FIAT profits, right?). If you are in BTC because of something deeper (monetary freedom) - then HOLD and fuck the exchange rate.

Anyhow, this is a fun (and useful) initiative - but me, Blitz, Cypherdoc, Odalv, etc. have made dozens (if not hundreds) of calls and here you are cherry-picking a lot, selecting very few, which makes this thread incomplete and biased. I think it would be cool if you'd do an exhaustive recount of all the calls - I guess its almost an impossible job for the past (tens of k's of posts to be read, etc.) but maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on.


In my opinion your response to me analysing your call is 'lame'. You still do not recognize this to be a bad call. You are instead misrepresenting again the call made (no, it was not advise to sell... you made a mockery of someone considering to sell), are making up excuses ("I've made dozens of serious analysis/calls (right & wrong)"), are trying to discredit the messenger with unfounded accusations ("you are cherry picking") and you are trying to make this thread into an impossible task ("maybe you could start to track all the calls from now on").  

I want the track record to be a fair representation of one's performance here in the past. It is my experience that you have been more wrong than right Rampion. Advising to buy and hold when prices were relatively high ($230) and to not buy when prices were relatively low ($70). And this in a trolly and spammy manner thereby adding to the widespread greed and fear that dominated this board and likely mislead many. I agree that my impression is subjective and my representation of your track record also. If you find it to be an unfair overly negative representation please quote calls from you here that have proven to be great/good and helpful for others.
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