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Rampion
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August 23, 2013, 02:49:53 PM
 #81

RationalSpeculator: In almost 4,000 posts I've made plenty of good and back calls, serious analysis and just trolling, I'm just pointing out that as a "track record" you chose quite poor and ambiguous examples.

About the guy wondering what to do on April 8th with BTC at $175: I would give the same advice today. If you care about your FIAT profits, sell (especially if the price just went to $175 from $14); if you are into BTC precisely as a hedge against fiat and the current financial system, just HOLD and forget about the exchange rate. Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact, and obviously the quote you just posted can read very differently in a few years from now. Frankly, I've made much worst calls about specific trades in concrete timeframes. Plus, that same day (April 8th) I posted that Bitcoin was in the middle of a speculative bubble that needed to burst ASAP, and we all know how that plaid out. Being beginning of April a time in which I posted +30 times per day (trolly and spammy as you say), probably you will find good, bad and ambiguous calls made during the same day Cheesy

Finally, you might be right that I'm correct only 33% of the times. I guess the point is to lose the minimum when you get it wrong, and earn the max. when you get it right. I definitely didn't achieve to double my BTC stash during these months of post-crash volatility - as I guess a decent trader would have done - but nevertheless I'm reasonably up, thus my calls are good enough for me. I do not pretend them to be good for anyone else, as I'm no financial advisor.

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August 23, 2013, 05:03:02 PM
 #82

Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact
Or not, some might disagree:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.msg2815963#msg2815963

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Rampion
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August 23, 2013, 08:17:33 PM
 #83

Historically the buy&hold strategy has been the absolute winner in BTC, this is a hard cold fact
Or not, some might disagree:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.msg2815963#msg2815963


I'm referring to buy&hold vs cashing out profits, or buy&hold vs "risk balancing" strategies which purpose is again to secure fiat profits while reducing the exposure to BTC. Long term, BTC has only gone up exponentially,  thus the best you can do is to buy as much as you can

Plus, does Goomboo consider fees and slippage in his back tests? Because those are two profit killers in this market. In fact, he shows backtests of hourly 10/21 EMA crossings, but he admits that he trades once daily at most, picking up very carefully his trades, because otherwise slippage and fees would eat all his profits. Making a long story short, the theoretical graphs of Goombo are very nice and very instructive, but the reality is quite different.


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August 24, 2013, 02:22:00 PM
 #84


He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:


I think it already bottomed at $50. I do not expect price at the end of year goes bellow $68. But who knows :-) More probably Bitcoin price can skyrocket anytime.
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August 24, 2013, 05:07:49 PM
 #85


He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:


I think it already bottomed at $50. I do not expect price at the end of year goes bellow $68. But who knows :-) More probably Bitcoin price can skyrocket anytime.

I'm curious to know why you think this? Smiley

I see more logic in a continued correction since the bubble went up for so long, 3 months hyperbolic, historically corrections took more than double the time of the hyperbolic rise, so that would be a bottom indeed around november/december. Bottom meaning it touches the long term trend line that you drew on your chart also, meaning touching at least $60/$70 around the end of the year.

But I didn't make such a great call before this thing went to the moon so I consider you more of an expert in takeoff detections  Grin
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August 24, 2013, 05:55:22 PM
 #86


He also made another call, to soon to be judged, that it will drop back to around $50 by January 2014:


I think it already bottomed at $50. I do not expect price at the end of year goes bellow $68. But who knows :-) More probably Bitcoin price can skyrocket anytime.

I'm curious to know why you think this? Smiley

I see more logic in a continued correction since the bubble went up for so long, 3 months hyperbolic, historically corrections took more than double the time of the hyperbolic rise, so that would be a bottom indeed around november/december. Bottom meaning it touches the long term trend line that you drew on your chart also, meaning touching at least $60/$70 around the end of the year.

But I didn't make such a great call before this thing went to the moon so I consider you more of an expert in takeoff detections  Grin

1. big volume in april (5M BTC) at average price $130
2. long term trend line rises 550% per year.

so why sell at a lose ($60) in 2014 when you can sell with profit in 2015 (long term trend line over $300) ?
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August 25, 2013, 05:51:13 PM
 #87

i would like to buy $1000 in BTC from an honest trader.  can someone help me?  

Great call from cypherdoc. Not that he advised others to buy but he was openly declaring his bullishness on bitcoin when average price was $0.67 on that 5th of April 2011. Price was coming from a high of over $1.08 on February 12th 2011 and had been correcting for 2 months by -40%. That day marked the low as it started to go straight up the next day peaking out 2 months later on June 9th 2011 at $31.5. 


 
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August 28, 2013, 05:05:53 PM
 #88

The reason they're falling is simple. The broader economy is slipping back into deflation. This makes inflation hedges like Bitcoin less attractive.

Bitcoin always tops with the stock market, or at least it has so far, and acts much like a penny stock. The last peak in BTC occurred prior to the flash crash, and so it's absolutely no surprise to see it falling right now as stocks fall and t-bonds rise.

I'm planing to buy a lot of BTC eventually but I've been waiting for the next major deflationary phase to run its course first.

Naturally, this is all my personal option/conjecture.

Bad call by BrightAnarchist. When price averaged $0.76 on March 19th 2011 and had just fallen from a high of $1.06 one month earlier he predicts, although with modesty, bitcoin to fall more and informs others he waits to make his large btc investment.

The price bottomed out 2 weeks later at an average price of $0.67 on April 5th 2011 after which it started shooting up parabolically peaking out already 2.5 months later at an average price of $29.58 on June 9th 2011. Since then it never fell back to $0.76 again but bottomed out 3 times higher at an average price of $2.14 by the end of the year, on November 18th 2011.  

 
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August 28, 2013, 05:13:09 PM
 #89

OP, I think you are missing the most epic and representative call by our beloved rpietila, who was absolutely sure that we would reach 300k USD per BTC by the end of the year:

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.

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August 28, 2013, 05:32:09 PM
 #90

looking back at the last 10 days we can clearly see the bubble popping and the first good attempt at catching the resulting knife.

you can see that when the bubble popped at ~266$ their was a big dip in price without much volume ( everyone let the knife fall  )
but now at 80-50$ rang we are seeing HUGE volume spikes when their is any kind of movement up or down.
I think if we are not already at bottom, its not too far down...


+1 for me  Cheesy

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August 28, 2013, 05:35:49 PM
 #91

+1 for me  Cheesy

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RationalSpeculator
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August 28, 2013, 05:36:47 PM
 #92

Bubbles happen. It's human nature. You can't stop them.

People made way too much out of the last bubble, proclaiming the "end of bitcoin" when it popped. All nonsense. It was just a hype bubble, nothing new in the world here.

That's why if you believe in Bitcoin, as I do, but you're not into market timing or speculating, you can just use dollar cost averaging by buying BTC every month -- and stop worrying so much about the day-to-day price changes. Let the speculators sweat that stuff, you don't have to if you only care about the long-term success of BTC.

I've bought BTC at 6 cents, and I've bought it at $30. Overall I've been increasing my wealth since I discovered BTC because the long-term trend is up. And I don't worry about it.

Good call by BrightAnarchist. After going through a long bear market for 6 months coming from a high of $32 in June 2011 and only a good month earlier in November 2011 finding a bottom around $2 but since then doubling again to $5 he predicts the long term trend to be up and advises others to dollar cost average.

Price averaged $5.21 that day January 2, 2012 and indeed went up in the long term to $13 by the end of the year 2012 and to $130 as of today, 1.5 years later.
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August 28, 2013, 06:39:58 PM
 #93

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1764508#msg1764508

Quote from: BrightAnarchist on April 07, 2013
Quote from: lucif on April 07, 2013, 12:53:58 PM
Hey, vendors, just wait for week or two. Bubbles in vertical phase dont live for too long time. It will collapse without your ddos.

Yeah, interesting how it keeps accelerating - take a look at log scale, it accelerates there too. Not normal behavior, but totally classic for bubbles

there's a major fibbo relationship at 207, so that's a potential target where the vertical rise would be 1.618 times the length of the first three waves off the 1.99 low (in log scale terms)


Good call from both lucif/Masterluc and BrightAnarchist. Price averaged $154 on that day April 7th, 2013 and both are bearish predicting it to collapse soon. BrightAnarchist thinks $207 could be it.

It topped 3 days later on April 10th at $266 and crashed to $105 instantly, only to end the day at $165. It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.


----

lucif/Masterluc reveals he is 100% out, right at the top of $250:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1791777#msg1791777
Quote from: lucif April 10, 2013, 10:12:07 AM
Quote from:  Arzack on April 10, 2013, 10:10:14 AM
Did you sell all bitcoins?
Yes. I am 100% out. No matter where it will go next, I worry i will not find a buyer for my volume for any price above.

---
BrightAnarchist revealed after prices peaked at $266 and dropped instantly to around $110 that he sold some at $100 and $143:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=165976.msg1797068#msg1797068
Quote from: BrightAnarchist April 10, 2013, 09:33:55 PM
Quote from: underground_ on April 10, 2013, 09:33:04 PM
Didn't you sell everything at ~$100?

Some at $100 and some at $143
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August 29, 2013, 12:28:19 AM
 #94


If you've been doing like me and slowly accumulating bitcoin whenever price dropped below 100 (getting an avg price of ~85$/BTC ) the "crash" is over, and here comes some more fireworks.


things are progressing quickly... I'm calling for a break out any day now... buy now b4 its to late, lol.




again, i'm going to +1 myself for a good call  Smiley

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August 29, 2013, 02:01:00 AM
 #95

looking back at the last 10 days we can clearly see the bubble popping and the first good attempt at catching the resulting knife.

you can see that when the bubble popped at ~266$ their was a big dip in price without much volume ( everyone let the knife fall  )
but now at 80-50$ rang we are seeing HUGE volume spikes when their is any kind of movement up or down.
I think if we are not already at bottom, its not too far down...


+1 for me  Cheesy

Very good adam!

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August 29, 2013, 02:02:54 AM
 #96

I'll make a call. By end of first week of October we will have hit $155.

End of first week of November price will be $180.

End of first week of December price will have broken $225.

Let's see how I do.  Grin

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August 29, 2013, 05:35:23 AM
 #97

On March 19, 2013, 03:59:14 PM I made two predictions:
  • that the price would stay above $50
  • That the price would stay below $100 for about 40 days.
Prediction: btc123 will have trouble crashing the market by promissing to sell $1M USD worth of BTC.

I am claiming that his manipulation only served to speed up price-discovery in a market "stuck" at a psycological barrier of $50USD/BTC.

Second prediction: The daily average price on Mt.Gox will not rise above $100USD/BTC before April 30, 2013.

That prediction assumes that the events in Cyprus don't cause a collapse of the Banking sytem in the reast of Europe.
The banks did not collapse in Europe, but the price at Mt. Gox went above $100 on or about April 13, 2013: over two weeks ahead of my prediction.

On July 4th, I call the bottom at $60. The dip bottoms out at just below 70 2 days later.
If the price drops below $5, I will consider taking out loans to buy up as much BTC as I can.

I would be surprised it the price dips below 60 for any extended period of time.


That gives me a track record of 2 correct, 1 wrong prediction. I don't usually explain my methodology, so I am not sure it is possible to separate my predictions from simple guessing. Wink

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August 29, 2013, 03:29:10 PM
 #98

this thread is turning into a circle jerk.
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August 30, 2013, 04:47:36 PM
 #99

i made a post somewhere a few weeks back, that bears would be rocking back and forth in a corner, saying " this is not the true price, it all because of mtGox,this is not the true price" over and over

so i guess thats another +1 for me  Cheesy

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August 30, 2013, 05:38:44 PM
 #100

i made a post somewhere a few weeks back, that bears would be rocking back and forth in a corner, saying " this is not the true price, it all because of mtGox,this is not the true price" over and over

so i guess thats another +1 for me  Cheesy
I remember that post. It paints a perfect picture.  Cheesy
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