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Author Topic: {BFL} Why The Monarch Might Just Work  (Read 5835 times)
k9quaint
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August 22, 2013, 09:46:10 AM
 #81

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

The reason is that people who buy ASIC mining equipment don't realize they are buying a variable stream of bitcoins. There is little else of value in ASIC mining equipment other than the bitcoins that come out of it. Therefore the mining equipment can be easily compared to a fixed amount of bitcoins. Both are purchases of Bitcoins, so there is no "if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle" issue. It is just choosing a vendor and product to get your bitcoins from. Some vendors are good, others are bad.  Some products are good (variable annuity from Avalon Batch 1), others are bad (variable annuity BFL Single).


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August 22, 2013, 01:57:57 PM
 #82

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

lol. While, they were promised a product in October, when the difficulty was orders of magnitude less. Not sure if there is an english barrier, or you're just a shill for BFL. Anyone that thinks these yahoos that invested hundreds of bitcoins into a product that was delayed longer than it takes to have a baby come to full term, is simply, stupid.

          WTF!     Don't Click Here              
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August 22, 2013, 02:00:33 PM
 #83

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

lol. While, they were promised a product in October, when the difficulty was orders of magnitude less. Not sure if there is an english barrier, or you're just a shill for BFL. Anyone that thinks these yahoos that invested hundreds of bitcoins into a product that was delayed longer than it takes to have a baby come to full term, is simply, stupid.
He's just a shill for BFL.

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hermann1983
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August 22, 2013, 02:01:35 PM
 #84

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

And some like mining
01BTC10
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August 22, 2013, 02:17:11 PM
 #85

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

They spent 200 bitcoins, now worth over 22000 dollars. They should have kept their bitcoins. They lost. Big!
Haha this is true no one that bought from BFL made any profit. Those who paid in $ would have done better buying BTC directly.
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August 22, 2013, 06:09:16 PM
 #86

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

Buy & Hold
glendall
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August 22, 2013, 06:58:16 PM
 #87

I can't fathom anyone ordering a Monarch.

Sure the Monarch is a good idea -- if BFL could actually deliver it.

You have to be full on retarded to trust anything this company says by now, seeing their track record. Sorry, not sure how else to say it. I can't understand how any rational person would think they are going to somehow be able to pull off this magic product without being late.

Already looks like they are pushing the '2 weeks later' delivery to Feb., not Nov.   https://forums.butterflylabs.com/monarch-discussion/4420-what-monarch-group-order.html

lumpycustard
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August 22, 2013, 07:05:37 PM
 #88


More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

Only if the exchange is always stable or moving in one direction.  For example when I was trading I often gave up overall USD value in order to improve my BTC position over time.  In a way this only arises due to mistakes (buying too early in this case), but realistically without perfect information you can never act perfectly.  But often you can still come out ahead despite this.  Anyway I don't know how this is relevant to mining, but just pointing out how different priorities allow different actions to make sense.

I also like the 'and some like mining comment'  Cheesy
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August 22, 2013, 08:08:32 PM
 #89

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
k9quaint
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August 22, 2013, 08:21:01 PM
 #90

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.

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August 22, 2013, 08:31:16 PM
 #91

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC.  

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.
The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
k9quaint
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August 22, 2013, 08:39:07 PM
 #92

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.
The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.
Every item has a static BTC price at the time you consider buying it. Just like every item has a static GBP or EUR price too. Do the exchange rate calculation, and you will know who many EUR, GBP, USD or BTC something costs no matter what currency it is "priced" in. If it is mining equipment, you will know what it was worth after it is done mining all the Bitcoin it will mine. Then you can compare what it cost you in BTC to what it was worth in BTC and see if you got ripped off.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.
But you are unable to explain why you think this to be so. Either your ego won't let you admit that you got ripped off, or you have some vested interest in presenting BFL in the best light. Either way, you seem to be out of arguments besides "nuh uh!".  Grin

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August 22, 2013, 08:40:34 PM
 #93

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.
The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.
I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.
The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.
Every item has a static BTC price at the time you consider buying it. Just like every item has a static GBP or EUR price too. Do the exchange rate calculation, and you will know who many EUR, GBP, USD or BTC something costs no matter what currency it is "priced" in. If it is mining equipment, you will know what it was worth after it is done mining all the Bitcoin it will mine. Then you can compare what it cost you in BTC to what it was worth in BTC and see if you got ripped off.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.
But you are unable to explain why you think this to be so. Either your ego won't let you admit that you got ripped off, or you have some vested interest in presenting BFL in the best light. Either way, you seem to be out of arguments besides "nuh uh!".  Grin

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
k9quaint
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August 22, 2013, 08:44:15 PM
 #94

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin

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fractal02
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August 22, 2013, 09:02:15 PM
 #95

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

lol. While, they were promised a product in October, when the difficulty was orders of magnitude less. Not sure if there is an english barrier, or you're just a shill for BFL. Anyone that thinks these yahoos that invested hundreds of bitcoins into a product that was delayed longer than it takes to have a baby come to full term, is simply, stupid.
He's just a shill for BFL.

From the biggest Avalon Shill...humm...well...humm...you know...it's funny  Wink
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August 22, 2013, 09:04:07 PM
 #96

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin

k9quaint
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August 22, 2013, 09:06:46 PM
 #97

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  Grin



Well, we know fractal02 is American.

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fractal02
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August 22, 2013, 09:11:03 PM
 #98

Well, we know fractal02 is American.

murraypaul
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August 22, 2013, 09:20:40 PM
 #99

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

You would have given up 13 BTC to get 10 BTC.
That is a loss of 3 BTC.
If you are buying a miner, it is surely because you want to get more BTC.
Instead, it gave you less.
It has used up lots of electricity, and generated lots of heat, to leave you with less BTC than you started with.
Where do I sign up?

BTC: 16TgAGdiTSsTWSsBDphebNJCFr1NT78xFW
SRC: scefi1XMhq91n3oF5FrE3HqddVvvCZP9KB
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August 22, 2013, 09:24:01 PM
 #100

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

You would have given up 13 BTC to get 10 BTC.
That is a loss of 3 BTC.
If you are buying a miner, it is surely because you want to get more BTC.
Instead, it gave you less.
It has used up lots of electricity, and generated lots of heat, to leave you with less BTC than you started with.
Where do I sign up?

http://butterflylabs.com/
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