{BFL} Why The Monarch Might Just Work

[Vorksholk]

At this time, there's an extreme amount of hatred towards BFL, orders that were ordered a year ago still have not arrived, etc.

I'm going to play the other end of story. I converted an order I had into a Monarch, perhaps a bit reluctantly.

Right now, they are in the tapeout process, so they are making some good progress.

The important point, however, is that this device has a few key differences from their previous product production runs. First, a large supply issue for BFL this round was the power supplies. This card doesn't need a power supply, and instead relies on a user-supplied PSU. They already have drivers made, and will likely only need to tweak their existing software to support the new architecture. They have more production employees right now than they ever had before, and they've worked through the kinks of ASIC production before, and at least have a bit of knowledge going into this second round that they were lacking when they were going into the first round.

If you have an order from 2013, it may make sense for you to upgrade. By the time those devices arrive, they may be fairly useless. Assuming a 50% growth rate per month until the end of the year, if you receive your 60GH/s ASIC in early October, it's very likely that, especially for the devices you paid $2,500 for, you will never see that money fully returned by the device. The monarch is still a wildcard, and in the event that it goes correctly, converting your current order to a Monarch, especially if you don't have to pay much extra money to cover the bridge, will likely be beneficial. However, if the monarch is late, and all the other ASIC companies like KnCMiner, HashFast, xCrowd(.co.uk), Bitfury, etc. deliver on time and in spec, then the monarch will be essentially useless.

I'm not saying to buy one, but if they actually do ship by the end of the year, you heard it here first. If they don't, just quietly forget this thread.

Edit: Not a sock puppet. I don't love BFL. I simply see it as my best option at this point, and think they might be capable of meeting my expectations.

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[dogie]

How can you believe a word they say, after everything? Stockholm?

[01BTC10]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking

[jspielberg]

How can you believe a word they say, after everything? Stockholm?

I agree with the TL;DR consensus from the other threads.
The only people I see going for this are people who are locked in with their non-ROI 2012 and 2013 orders hoping to move up the line (like this poor soul OP).
Which is exactly what BFL intends... clear up the backlog... get them off the old backlog onto the new back log and by some time (possibly).

[cypherdoc]

beat me, beat me, please.

[erschiessen]

It will work in keeping wishful BFL customers from filing complaints.

It will work in bringing in lots of BTC.

It will work to make them rich as they skip the country once Sonny's parole ends in a month.

Dumb fuckers here are actually dumber than the elderly dupes that Sonny fucked to earn the only thing that he has earned in his life... a felony conviction (via guilty plea).

I find it difficult to believe.

BFL didn't rake enough suckers with chips to run for the border... so they 'created' 28nm technology that up until a couple of weeks ago said was IMPOSSIBLE.

They have not only made the impossible possible in Two Weeks^TM - they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

And there are dumb fuckers that are dumb enough to fall for it?

Sock-puppets, the only explanation.

[cypherdoc]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

[01BTC10]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

Alien technology.

[Bitcoinorama]

I believe Butterfly Labs have stepped back and looked at where most of their original income (and associated vocal discontent) has come from;

Miners that gave up their rigs and possibly still mine their cards on Alt-coins.

They have the infrastructure in place w.r.t. the rigs themseleves.

They feel, and quite rightly have been the most hard done by, largely as they paid in Bitcoins, thus have lost  out on equivalent fiat value due to subsequent market activity. Their risk admittedly, but the time involved was significant, and never meant to reach March, let alone September. Likewise they've had no means of consumer protection by that chosen payment method, so are effectively locked in by their payment choice for a pre-order, unlike others who are gradually realising they can't be held hostage despite BFL's demands.

The answer is to match the leading competitors promise and offer a means that incorporates the equipment they have to hand. Equipment that everyone owns, and is widely distributed and is nostalgic to the community.

However with BFL's track record of cooling issues, and under performance, my gut instinct is that these will be problems revisited, or the performance specs will have to be drastically reduced to compensate.

[Tamerz]

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

[MWNinja]

I think most April 2013 and later orders (the ones that have to pay the 10% extra) will kick the can forward to this new "vapor" device, with the chance of being one of the first to get the the next gen product they will at least have some remote possibility of seeing ROI . Their card looks like a Radeon reference design photoshop; I wonder what kind of involvement AMD has in the project.

[felente]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking

Yes.

I believe Butterfly Labs have stepped back and looked at where most of their original income (and associated vocal discontent) has come from;
Miners that gave up their rigs and possibly still mine their cards on Alt-coins.
They have the infrastructure in place w.r.t. the rigs themseleves.

Yes.

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

I do not know simply. I mean it.
You sure?

only thing i say - that's VERY smart move and i'm glad this is projected at least.

[Flying Hellfish]

Their card looks like a Radeon reference design photoshop; I wonder what kind of involvement AMD has in the project.

Other than having their design borrowed, exactly 0% chance AMD has anything to do with this at all.

[xzempt]

this will never happen.....  unless they buy someone elses chip..... 

[Xian01]

You know what else might just work ? Holding onto two live electrical wires whilst jumping into a vat of acid, hoping to acquire super-powers.

Or you could take a chance on this product.

Either choice is liable to cause you pain and suffering.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

You know what else might just work ? Holding onto two live electrical wires whilst jumping into a vat of acid, hoping to acquire super-powers.

Or you could take a chance on this product.

Either choice is liable to cause you pain and suffering.

At least with one of the choices, sex is involved.

[felente]

well, design is not borrowed especially from amd. nvidia has similar designs too.

first - this is simply right design to build such things in general;
second - this is a publication of an idea an not production-look - design details will change 100%;
third - THIS seems to me the WAY TO GO regarding mining equipment in the perspective, IMHO.

in any case i'm very interested how this concept will continue.

[k9quaint]

At this time, there's an extreme amount of hatred towards BFL, orders that were ordered a year ago still have not arrived, etc.

I'm going to play the other end of story. I converted an order I had into a Monarch, perhaps a bit reluctantly.

Right now, they are in the tapeout process, so they are making some good progress.

The important point, however, is that this device has a few key differences from their previous product production runs. First, a large supply issue for BFL this round was the power supplies. This card doesn't need a power supply, and instead relies on a user-supplied PSU. They already have drivers made, and will likely only need to tweak their existing software to support the new architecture. They have more production employees right now than they ever had before, and they've worked through the kinks of ASIC production before, and at least have a bit of knowledge going into this second round that they were lacking when they were going into the first round.

If you have an order from 2013, it may make sense for you to upgrade. By the time those devices arrive, they may be fairly useless. Assuming a 50% growth rate per month until the end of the year, if you receive your 60GH/s ASIC in early October, it's very likely that, especially for the devices you paid $2,500 for, you will never see that money fully returned by the device. The monarch is still a wildcard, and in the event that it goes correctly, converting your current order to a Monarch, especially if you don't have to pay much extra money to cover the bridge, will likely be beneficial. However, if the monarch is late, and all the other ASIC companies like KnCMiner, HashFast, xCrowd(.co.uk), Bitfury, etc. deliver on time and in spec, then the monarch will be essentially useless.

I'm not saying to buy one, but if they actually do ship by the end of the year, you heard it here first. If they don't, just quietly forget this thread.

Why don't you just get a refund?

PSA:
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. One customer has already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises from BFL.

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

[Tamerz]

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

I do not know simply. I mean it.
You sure?

only thing i say - that's VERY smart move and i'm glad this is projected at least.

No, of course I don't know "for sure". I'm just looking at their track record. They always over promise and under deliver. Not once have they come even close to their power estimations.

EDIT: I do want to note that I think they make excellent hardware despite everything else. It is just frustrating that they can be so off from their pre-order estimates.

[AsicShill]

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

I do not know simply. I mean it.
You sure?

only thing i say - that's VERY smart move and i'm glad this is projected at least.

No, of course I don't know "for sure". I'm just looking at their track record. They always over promise and under deliver. Not once have they come even close to their power estimations.

Hey maybe they will end up giving you 6 PCI cards each generating 100GH if they miss. 
Hope you have lots of spare chassis and lots of high capacity power supplies (assuming they are able to produce at all --- magic 8-ball is looking pretty negative).  To twist an  "investing" phrase - past failures is no guarantee for future success   

[superduh]

i feel bad for OP for losing even MORE money

[crazyates]

People are complaining because they think that only the first people who ordered SC Singles will ever make a positive ROI. Wouldn't the same be true for these? The first people who buy these 2nd gen products will be the most profitable, but if you order 6 months from now (when they may or may not be shipping) you may or may not make a positive ROI?

If that's the case, why wouldn't people buy them now?

[kendog77]

People are complaining because they think that only the first people who ordered SC Singles will ever make a positive ROI. Wouldn't the same be true for these? The first people who buy these 2nd gen products will be the most profitable, but if you order 6 months from now (when they may or may not be shipping) you may or may not make a positive ROI?

If that's the case, why wouldn't people buy them now?

Because BFL is too unreliable and they are very dishonest to their customers. There is a lot of competition in ASIC mining hardware right now, so folks have choices. Why would I want to tie up money in BFL for who knows how long when there will likely be better options available before BFL manages to ship?

If BFL manages to deliver a 600 GHs product in 2013 that only uses 350W of power for $4680, the Monarch is a slam dunk. Given BFLs history, I'd say they have about a 1% chance of doing that and this is simply another pre-order money grab to keep them from going belly up.

BFL still hasn't managed to ship all of their June 2012 orders yet! Read that statement a few more times and let it sink in...

[k9quaint]

People are complaining because they think that only the first people who ordered SC Singles will ever make a positive ROI. Wouldn't the same be true for these? The first people who buy these 2nd gen products will be the most profitable, but if you order 6 months from now (when they may or may not be shipping) you may or may not make a positive ROI?

If that's the case, why wouldn't people buy them now?

The people who bought Singles would have done far better had they bought Avalon, ASICMIner, or even BTC from MtGox.
So that is what people should do, learn from their mistakes and buy from someone else or just get BTC from MtGox.
The only way BFL will give you ROI in USD is if Bitcoin is worth 10x by the time they ship. So cut out the middleman and just get the BTC up front.
If it doesn't increase by 10x, you are better off not having a BFL order.

[qwk]

Right now, they are in the tapeout process, so they are making some good progress.

I think I don't really go out on a limb if I call this "August tapeout" statement a lie.

[Bitcoinorama]

Right now, they are in the tapeout process, so they are making some good progress.

I think I don't really go out on a limb if I call this "August tapeout" statement a lie.

Will have to see, they facetiously have, err..."Two Weeks ^TM" (© Zerlan 2012).

[sgrunger]

Sonny Vleisides is the BFL CEO and a convicted fraudster, having been involved in a lottery scam of 25 million dollars that was ran by his father.
BFL have sold more or less 3000 Single units and haven't shipped any orders later than early July 2012.

Having said that, trusting BFL with your hard earned money is a very foolish decision to make.

[edit : Removed "Little singles" from my list and rephrase]

[fractal02]

Sonny Vleisides is the BFL CEO and a convicted fraudster, having been involved in a lottery scam of 25 million dollars that was ran by his father.
BFL has not shipped any Singles and Little Singles orders from anywhere after July 2012.

Having said that, trusting BFL with your hard earned money is a very foolish decision to make.

You sir are a liar ==>

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/bfl_jody/291-friday-saturday-august-16-17-2013-shipping-update.html

[millsdmb]

Sonny Vleisides is the BFL CEO and a convicted fraudster, having been involved in a lottery scam of 25 million dollars that was ran by his father.
BFL has not shipped any Singles and Little Singles orders from anywhere after July 2012.

Having said that, trusting BFL with your hard earned money is a very foolish decision to make.

You sir are a liar ==>

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/bfl_jody/291-friday-saturday-august-16-17-2013-shipping-update.html

within a range of 3 months, as they are still only shipipng at the Oct 1 2012 pay date.

You really want to nit pick that?

[Bicknellski]

Doesn't matter if it works. Matters when it ships and whether it even exists.

Boycott BFL. Simply the best way to avoid the 12 month waiting game.

[amencon]

People are complaining because they think that only the first people who ordered SC Singles will ever make a positive ROI. Wouldn't the same be true for these? The first people who buy these 2nd gen products will be the most profitable, but if you order 6 months from now (when they may or may not be shipping) you may or may not make a positive ROI?

If that's the case, why wouldn't people buy them now?

Answer seems a bit obvious but it's because the landscape of bitcoin ASIC manufacturing appears a lot different today looking forward a year than it did for the last year.  I think if any company delays shipment at this point for as long as BFL did with their last offerings then not a single unit of their offering will see ROI.  However if you do plan on ordering a Monarch FOR SURE then I suppose it's better to upgrade or buy it now rather than later.

Though I guess that's the answer (one of many) to why shouldn't people buy them.  In fact I'm sure many will pre-order Monarchs now regardless of how bad a decision that is.

[greyhawk]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

Alien technology.

http://silverunderground.com/2013/06/wake-up-bit-coin-is-an-alien-invasion/

[qwk]

Alien technology.

http://silverunderground.com/2013/06/wake-up-bit-coin-is-an-alien-invasion/

[johnyj]

You have to admit that BFL's announcement always hit right on the spot of consumer psychology, people first curse them, then place a lot of order at their website 

[Bicknellski]

You have to admit that BFL's announcement always hit right on the spot of consumer psychology, people first curse them, then place a lot of order at their website  

Caveat emptor is not a widely used frame of reference for those who "consume" BFL products. Rather than BFL targeting a consumer psychology it is more a targeting of the Bitcoin pathology (study of suffering), particularly of those who need consumer protection from the least scrupulous businesses in this community. The fastest way to get more regulation in Bitcoin is to continue to allow BFL to operate with little or no ethical foundation.

[User705]

The reason you will not get your product has a lot more to do with economics then technology.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276844

[tacoman71]

I will never order from BFL again unless they have a very compelling reason to buy from them; the monarch is somewhat impressive but not by alot. xCrowd seems more promising and they're cheaper.

[Xian01]

 I just realized we haven't heard anything about those hardware wallets BFL was pimping a couple trade shows ago.

 Wonder if that is going to ship before Monarch.

[k9quaint]

I just realized we haven't heard anything about those hardware wallets BFL was pimping a couple trade shows ago.

 Wonder if that is going to ship before Monarch.

Because that is exactly what I want to do. Put all my Bitcoin in a BFL device! 

[DeathAndTaxes]

I just realized we haven't heard anything about those hardware wallets BFL was pimping a couple trade shows ago.

 Wonder if that is going to ship before Monarch.

Because that is exactly what I want to do. Put all my Bitcoin in a BFL device! 

When you try to spend then the wallet continually reports it will be included in a block "in two weeks (TM)".

[YipYip]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

Alien technology.

Time Travelers

[Loredo]

BFL didn't rake enough suckers with chips to run for the border... so they 'created' 28nm technology that up until a couple of weeks ago said was IMPOSSIBLE.

It's a good way to work it in this kind of scam.  Flow with the plausibility, subject to what is known about you.

A couple weeks ago, there was only one 28nm:  KnC.  So, BFL could say "bullshit," and enough of the brain dead twits in retail bitcoin would believe it.  Remember, there are people who, for cultural/language reasons, or simply intellectual impairment,  believe almost anything they read on the internet from a "reputable" source. *

Then came HashFast and CoinTerra.  Now there were three (their stories are all 28nm, right?  I forget...)  Okay, no problem.  We be 28nm too, Boss.  Photoshop up a video card, and: bada bing.  Another million bucks.

*I don't want this to be taken as an attack on those who, for technological reasons, still believe that KnC, and/or others as well, do not and cannot have 28nm chips.  I'm talking only about those who wouldn't know a nonometer from a nannybot.

[YipYip]

Alien technology.

http://silverunderground.com/2013/06/wake-up-bit-coin-is-an-alien-invasion/

Time travelling Aliens

[BTCscraper]

It is possible that Butterfly Labs is just licensing 28nm from someone who already has it.  And they're only alien because they're not American.

[Loredo]

It is possible that Butterfly Labs is just licensing 28nm from someone who already has it.  And they're only alien because they're not American.

What part of "tapeout" would seem to contradict that?

[Loredo]

Hey, what does it mean if someone's "ignore" word is backgrounded in yellow? 

Serious question; I am not wise in the ways of bitcointalk software.

[01BTC10]

Hey, what does it mean if someone's "ignore" word is backgrounded in yellow? 

Serious question; I am not wise in the ways of bitcointalk software.

Lots of users ignore him.

[Flying Hellfish]

Hey, what does it mean if someone's "ignore" word is backgrounded in yellow? 

Serious question; I am not wise in the ways of bitcointalk software.

The darker it is the more users that have that person on ignore.  I guess it's designed as a sort of "troll meter"?

[Loredo]

Hey, what does it mean if someone's "ignore" word is backgrounded in yellow? 

Serious question; I am not wise in the ways of bitcointalk software.

Lots of users ignore him.

Thank you.  And you as well, Mr. Hellfish.

[Loredo]

Hey, what does it mean if someone's "ignore" word is backgrounded in yellow?  

Serious question; I am not wise in the ways of bitcointalk software.

The darker it is the more users that have that person on ignore.  I guess it's designed as a sort of "troll meter"?

I think there's a basic problem with "ignore," particularly if used on a genuine troll, as opposed to someone who holds views that are consistently opposed to one's own.  

It's kind of the opposite of an xml parser which didn't have a 'deep' option in its cloneNode:  here, you still get the troll's posts in the quoted replies.  A well written state machine could, in principle, "ignore" the responses to ignored posts as well.

And there's the problem:  sometimes, responses to trolls are more insightful than "Oh, yeah?  Well, feck you," and somebody might want to read them.  IMO, it's better just to let 'er buck.

[DimensionsOfHell]

I just don't see how they will be able to fit all that in a unit that looks like a graphics card. The KnCMiner Jupiter unit (28nm, 400GH/s, <1000W), and HashFast BabyJet (28nm, 400gh/s, claimed 400W) units are desktop sizes, and that is mostly to dissipate the heat with giant fans. The Jupiter unit will have 6 fans to cool 4 chips, and the Babyjet unit will be water cooled.  I highly doubt BFL will be able to accomplish that type of heat dissipation in a package that small. They are just going to stringing along new customers until they under deliver again and just break up the order into multiple units.

I'm still waiting on my 5GH/s order from March from BFL. I expect to get it late September/early October at current rate of shipping, at which point it'll just be a nice reminder of money I threw away, because it won't even get me ROI in a full year, and the sad part is, it was only $167 including shipping -_-'. Whats the point in having a unit that won't even make you $150 in an entire year? The least they could do is upgrade those late orders to 7GH/s for free, so there's at least a chance of ROI. They don't lose anything, all it is, is a firmware upgrade! No extra HW cost! Those bastards....

Anyway...

Ordered a Saturn unit (200GH/s) from KnCMiner for October delivery, I really hope they can bring back the faith in ASIC Mining companies (Looking at you BFL. )

[Bicknellski]

It is possible that Butterfly Labs is just licensing 28nm from someone who already has it.  And they're only alien because they're not American.

What part of "tapeout" would seem to contradict that?

The fact they are lying about the tape out? Evidence?

[ScaryHash]

How can anybody possibly be insane enough to pre-order stuff when they still have not shipped stuff pre-ordered last year??

No more preorders !

P.S. I still have not received my Jalepenos.

Go ahead and piss your money away. You are free to do so.

[Stack]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

I first saw the pic in a hate thread and LOL'd as I thought it was a joke picture.
I ROFLMAO when I found out the device really has been announced and it's their official image, I mean shit, they aren't even trying anymore. They just slapped their logo onto a photo of a GPU and promised an insane $/GH ratio, knowing people will go for it out of sheer desperation

[PuertoLibre]

Hey, what does it mean if someone's "ignore" word is backgrounded in yellow?  

Serious question; I am not wise in the ways of bitcointalk software.

The darker it is the more users that have that person on ignore.  I guess it's designed as a sort of "troll meter"?

I think there's a basic problem with "ignore," particularly if used on a genuine troll, as opposed to someone who holds views that are consistently opposed to one's own.  

It's kind of the opposite of an xml parser which didn't have a 'deep' option in its cloneNode:  here, you still get the troll's posts in the quoted replies.  A well written state machine could, in principle, "ignore" the responses to ignored posts as well.

And there's the problem:  sometimes, responses to trolls are more insightful than "Oh, yeah?  Well, feck you," and somebody might want to read them.  IMO, it's better just to let 'er buck.

How dark is my ignore button right now?

[Stack]

Hey, what does it mean if someone's "ignore" word is backgrounded in yellow?  

Serious question; I am not wise in the ways of bitcointalk software.

The darker it is the more users that have that person on ignore.  I guess it's designed as a sort of "troll meter"?

I think there's a basic problem with "ignore," particularly if used on a genuine troll, as opposed to someone who holds views that are consistently opposed to one's own.  

It's kind of the opposite of an xml parser which didn't have a 'deep' option in its cloneNode:  here, you still get the troll's posts in the quoted replies.  A well written state machine could, in principle, "ignore" the responses to ignored posts as well.

And there's the problem:  sometimes, responses to trolls are more insightful than "Oh, yeah?  Well, feck you," and somebody might want to read them.  IMO, it's better just to let 'er buck.

How dark is my ignore button right now?

Color
#EEE8AA

[PuertoLibre]

Can more people ignore me?

I want to know if I can get to black?

Inaba assures me all the time that I have nothing important to say. I promise.

[dave111223]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

Alien technology.

For me there is really only one possible explanation.

BFL have direct access to advanced ancient alien technology.

[dave111223]

Alien technology.

http://silverunderground.com/2013/06/wake-up-bit-coin-is-an-alien-invasion/

Time travelling Aliens

Oh wtf beat me to it.

[jhansen858]

it's funny because op is troll bait. say something good about bfl and BAM!!! 32 haters show up to scream bloody murder.  it's the anti-troll troll.

bravo. bravo.

[TechCF]

It might work, and the design is good. But I guess it is just a PCIe USB card with a lot of ASICs, heatsink and those cheap NVIDIA/AMD replacement fan. I heard something about a USB port too, so that suggests that the card uses USB internally.

[BTCscraper]

For me there is really only one possible explanation.
BFL have direct access to advanced ancient alien technology.

They do -- the Persian who is currently in Gaul.

[01BTC10]

it's funny because op is troll bait. say something good about bfl and BAM!!! 32 haters show up to scream bloody murder.  it's the anti-troll troll.

bravo. bravo.

I don't know how you could say anything good about BFL unless you won the early shipping lottery.

I gave them the benefit of the doubt for 1 year but no more.

[wunch]

Monarch huh? You know this guy is going to be turning up in two weeks(TM)

http://coedmagazine.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/brock-samson-id-e1300998357489.jpg

[Rival]

Any preorder from any manufacturer anywhere in the bitcoin universe is a roll of the dice when it comes to ROI. I understand people trying to compare a preorder with BFL or Avalon with a preorder from Apple, but surely everyone here knows going in that they are completely different. It would be nice if bitcoin was a mature system with mature manufacturing and distribution channels for ASIC hardware. But it isn't. You know that, I know that, we all know that. Any preorder in any bitcoin hardware is a gamble, pure and simple. Every company promises X hash at Y delivery date, and none of them ever comes close. Maybe someday someone will, but only time will tell.

ASICminer sells hardware on-hand, and does not take preorders. They do it right, but then everyone screams that their hardware will never make ROI. This is the state of bitcoin ASIC technology. You roll the dice on a pre-order or you buy something you can get in a few days at a price that will never achieve ROI.

I don't see the venting against BFL or any other manufacturer as very constructive, unless it has some therapeutic value. Blaming the dice when you crap out makes you a poor gambler.

[wtfvanity]

Are people really considering this? You never got your preorder, so roll it over into the new preorder? lol...

There are some really stupid people here.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Are people really considering this? You never got your preorder, so roll it over into the new preorder? lol...

There are some really stupid people here.

or just insane.

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Albert Einstein

[qwk]

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Albert Einstein

"God doesn't play dice."
Albert Einstein

[mgio]

Your best option, OP, would have been to cancel your preorder and get a refund from BFL.


There is no reason to believe they will ever ship this new product.

It's amazing how quickly people forget. Recall back in October of last year when they said they would be shipping in late Oct/earl Nov. Did that happen?

Remember in January when they actually gave a date they said they would begin shipping. Feb 10, I think it was...

And it went on and on. And all that time they didn't even have a chip yet!!

Seriously, anyone who orders anything from BFL now is an idiot. I know people seem bitter, but it is not without good reason. They been claiming they would ship in a few weeks for over a year now.

[greyhawk]

Are people really considering this? You never got your preorder, so roll it over into the new preorder? lol...

There are some really stupid people here.

or just insane.

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Albert Einstein

I think you mean Vaas Montenegro.

No, for real: This quote is misattributed to Einstein often. However, Einstein was long dead when the quote first surfaced in the 1981 edition of Narcotics Anonymous' "Basic Text".

[jhansen858]

it's funny because op is troll bait. say something good about bfl and BAM!!! 32 haters show up to scream bloody murder.  it's the anti-troll troll.

bravo. bravo.

I don't know how you could say anything good about BFL unless you won the early shipping lottery.

I gave them the benefit of the doubt for 1 year but no more.

Lets be honest for a second here.  Anyone who can google something, can easily learn about the entire asic design process.  Maintaining realistic expectations is not that hard.  After the news came out that the chip was over budget on power and cooling, anyone who did any sort of homework on this would have known thats a 6 month fuckup there.  BFL sure as shit isn't going to start trumpeting this in the middle of trying to get this off the ground.  I wouldn't expect them to. 

My only regret is that they should have only produced 1 line which was the minirigs.  Then all the stupid people who were trying to buy $300 worth of rigs would have had to go elsewhere.  Letting 15 year olds purchase $300 jala's because their parents pay for electricity and then listening to them bitch and complain for the last year because they didn't win the shipping lotto is really the most annoying part to the entire thing. 

[tiros]

You know what else might just work ? Holding onto two live electrical wires whilst jumping into a vat of acid, hoping to acquire super-powers.

Or you could take a chance on this product.

Either choice is liable to cause you pain and suffering.

ROFL

[wtfvanity]

it's funny because op is troll bait. say something good about bfl and BAM!!! 32 haters show up to scream bloody murder.  it's the anti-troll troll.

bravo. bravo.

I don't know how you could say anything good about BFL unless you won the early shipping lottery.

I gave them the benefit of the doubt for 1 year but no more.

What exactly do you mean there. Are you talking about the people that paid a year ago and theirs shipped first? Or people like luke-jr and a couple of reviewers that got the first ones?

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

[fractal02]

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

[Syke]

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

They spent 200 bitcoins, now worth over 22000 dollars. They should have kept their bitcoins. They lost. Big!

[fractal02]

They spent 200 bitcoins, now worth over 22000 dollars. They should have kept their bitcoins. They lost. Big!

In my country we have a proverb for this kind of BS retro/futur predication  :

"If my aunt had balls this would be my uncle"

I have another one for you : Why haven't you buy some APPLE shares when they were cheap ? You'd be a millionaire !!! Why ? whhhhyyyyyyyy !!!!  

Please.

I'm talking about the ROI for early buyers.
Not some "If" talk.

[Stack]

They spent 200 bitcoins, now worth over 22000 dollars. They should have kept their bitcoins. They lost. Big!

In my country we have a proverb for this kind of BS retro/futur predication  :

"If my aunt had balls this would be my uncle"

I have another one for you : Why haven't you buy some APPLE shares when they were cheap ? You'd be a millionaire !!! Why ? whhhhyyyyyyyy !!!!  

Please.

I'm talking about the ROI for early buyers.
Not some "If" talk.

Agreed, when you spent your coin you based your purchase on their current fiat market value.
You could've easily spent those coins on something else of equal fiat value (like slippers) - doesn't mean you bought slippers for thousands of dollars... market was different back then, just as $10 used to fill the fuel tank of your car a few years ago... so seriously... this tired old comparison is irrelevant - sick of reading it.
The market value at the time of purchase is what was spent. As is the case with any currency or asset.

I do, however feel that even early adopters lost out on BFL... sure - they did earn some money, but what a fuck around they went through - strung along all that time - the ones who did truly well were those who received their unit, mined with it for awhile then ebay'd it and washed their hands of BFL and learnt from it.

[k9quaint]

They spent 200 bitcoins, now worth over 22000 dollars. They should have kept their bitcoins. They lost. Big!

In my country we have a proverb for this kind of BS retro/futur predication  :

"If my aunt had balls this would be my uncle"

I have another one for you : Why haven't you buy some APPLE shares when they were cheap ? You'd be a millionaire !!! Why ? whhhhyyyyyyyy !!!!  

Please.

I'm talking about the ROI for early buyers.
Not some "If" talk.

Agreed, when you spent your coin you based your purchase on their current fiat market value.

Except you were spending a fixed amount of coin to buy a future variable stream of coins. Very similar a variable annuity from an insurance company. The inputs and outputs were in the same unit. Bitcoins in, bitcoins out. There is no way to justify spending 200 bitcoins to receive 120 (more or less depending on the date received and future difficulty). There is no uncertainty, there is no gambling. Under what circumstances is it good to pay $200 for a financial product that will return you $120? Why would you pay an insurance company $200 (or it's equivalent) for an annuity that caps the payout at $120? You wouldn't.

As for the Apple shares analogy:
Would you have traded 200 shares of Apple back when they were worth $20 for 120 shares of Apple when they were worth $500? After all, the 200 shares were only worth $4000 and the 120 shares are worth $60,000!
Explain the circumstances under which that would be a good idea.

You could've easily spent those coins on something else of equal fiat value (like slippers) - doesn't mean you bought slippers for thousands of dollars... market was different back then, just as $10 used to fill the fuel tank of your car a few years ago... so seriously... this tired old comparison is irrelevant - sick of reading it.
The market value at the time of purchase is what was spent. As is the case with any currency or asset.

This might be true, if they bought a pizza, or a shoe, or a car  (which btw are not investments).
But they didn't, they bought a complex future option for more Bitcoins. Like most options, this one has a decaying time value. The fact that it is packaged in the form of silicon is idiosyncratic of Bitcoin.

I do, however feel that even early adopters lost out on BFL... sure - they did earn some money, but what a fuck around they went through - strung along all that time - the ones who did truly well were those who received their unit, mined with it for awhile then ebay'd it and washed their hands of BFL and learnt from it.

The greater fool method of profit was the only way to profit for people who bought BFL.

[lumpycustard]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

[Swordsoffreedom]

Basically if you already got stuck may as well give in mentality

[k9quaint]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

The reason is that people who buy ASIC mining equipment don't realize they are buying a variable stream of bitcoins. There is little else of value in ASIC mining equipment other than the bitcoins that come out of it. Therefore the mining equipment can be easily compared to a fixed amount of bitcoins. Both are purchases of Bitcoins, so there is no "if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle" issue. It is just choosing a vendor and product to get your bitcoins from. Some vendors are good, others are bad.  Some products are good (variable annuity from Avalon Batch 1), others are bad (variable annuity BFL Single).

[wtfvanity]

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

lol. While, they were promised a product in October, when the difficulty was orders of magnitude less. Not sure if there is an english barrier, or you're just a shill for BFL. Anyone that thinks these yahoos that invested hundreds of bitcoins into a product that was delayed longer than it takes to have a baby come to full term, is simply, stupid.

[PuertoLibre]

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

lol. While, they were promised a product in October, when the difficulty was orders of magnitude less. Not sure if there is an english barrier, or you're just a shill for BFL. Anyone that thinks these yahoos that invested hundreds of bitcoins into a product that was delayed longer than it takes to have a baby come to full term, is simply, stupid.

He's just a shill for BFL.

[hermann1983]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

And some like mining

[01BTC10]

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

They spent 200 bitcoins, now worth over 22000 dollars. They should have kept their bitcoins. They lost. Big!

Haha this is true no one that bought from BFL made any profit. Those who paid in $ would have done better buying BTC directly.

[Syke]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

[glendall]

I can't fathom anyone ordering a Monarch.

Sure the Monarch is a good idea -- if BFL could actually deliver it.

You have to be full on retarded to trust anything this company says by now, seeing their track record. Sorry, not sure how else to say it. I can't understand how any rational person would think they are going to somehow be able to pull off this magic product without being late.

Already looks like they are pushing the '2 weeks later' delivery to Feb., not Nov.   https://forums.butterflylabs.com/monarch-discussion/4420-what-monarch-group-order.html

[lumpycustard]

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

Only if the exchange is always stable or moving in one direction.  For example when I was trading I often gave up overall USD value in order to improve my BTC position over time.  In a way this only arises due to mistakes (buying too early in this case), but realistically without perfect information you can never act perfectly.  But often you can still come out ahead despite this.  Anyway I don't know how this is relevant to mining, but just pointing out how different priorities allow different actions to make sense.

I also like the 'and some like mining comment'  

[maqifrnswa]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.

[k9quaint]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.

The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.

I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.

[bcp19]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC.  

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.

The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.

I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.

The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.

[k9quaint]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.

The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.

I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.

The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.

Every item has a static BTC price at the time you consider buying it. Just like every item has a static GBP or EUR price too. Do the exchange rate calculation, and you will know who many EUR, GBP, USD or BTC something costs no matter what currency it is "priced" in. If it is mining equipment, you will know what it was worth after it is done mining all the Bitcoin it will mine. Then you can compare what it cost you in BTC to what it was worth in BTC and see if you got ripped off.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.

But you are unable to explain why you think this to be so. Either your ego won't let you admit that you got ripped off, or you have some vested interest in presenting BFL in the best light. Either way, you seem to be out of arguments besides "nuh uh!". 

[bcp19]

The reason people keep misunderstanding each other on this point is that some are aiming for more USD, others are aiming for more BTC. 

More BTC = More USD
Less BTC = Less USD

You cannot get more USD out of less BTC!

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

Less BTC=More USD

The reason people misunderstand each other is that they are doing conversions from BTC to USD in their heads at different points of time because some are thinking of optimizing BTC and some are thinking of optimizing for USD.

The Jalapeno is equivalent to 10 BTC. You could have traded 13 BTC for 10 BTC.
13 BTC would be roughly $1560 (@120). 10 BTC would roughly $1200. Less BTC = Less USD. That would not have been a good trade.

My approach: maximize BTC holdings while hedging against systematic market instability by selling futures. Don't consider the future value of BTC in any calculations because it is irrelevant - if you need USD/BTC ratio to go up to get a positive ROI -- you're doing it wrong.

I agree. Exchanging USD for BTC and then back into USD (or vice versa) in an attempt to sell high and buy low is the transaction people are confusing with successful mining. As you say, if you take the exchange rate out of the equation, you can calculate trivially whether you got a good deal buying BTC.

The only item with a static BTC price is such a complete ripoff that even when BTC dropped to $70 it didn't affect him making insane profits.

Every item has a static BTC price at the time you consider buying it. Just like every item has a static GBP or EUR price too. Do the exchange rate calculation, and you will know who many EUR, GBP, USD or BTC something costs no matter what currency it is "priced" in. If it is mining equipment, you will know what it was worth after it is done mining all the Bitcoin it will mine. Then you can compare what it cost you in BTC to what it was worth in BTC and see if you got ripped off.

Your BTC vs BTC argument is still invalid.

But you are unable to explain why you think this to be so. Either your ego won't let you admit that you got ripped off, or you have some vested interest in presenting BFL in the best light. Either way, you seem to be out of arguments besides "nuh uh!". 

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

[k9quaint]

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again. 

[fractal02]

Besides the first free ones they gave away, I hardly would say that anyone that preordered the first day won anything...

Some Singles (60gh/s) was shipped around 24-25 june 2013.
Diff was 19.34 MM
1 month after the diff was 31.26 MM

In 1 month a Single owner make some 5200 dollars...(and can make more extra putting this on Ebay...)

Ohh no...they won anything...nononono...

lol. While, they were promised a product in October, when the difficulty was orders of magnitude less. Not sure if there is an english barrier, or you're just a shill for BFL. Anyone that thinks these yahoos that invested hundreds of bitcoins into a product that was delayed longer than it takes to have a baby come to full term, is simply, stupid.

He's just a shill for BFL.

From the biggest Avalon Shill...humm...well...humm...you know...it's funny 

[fractal02]

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again. 

[k9quaint]

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again. 

Well, we know fractal02 is American.

[fractal02]

Well, we know fractal02 is American.

[murraypaul]

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

You would have given up 13 BTC to get 10 BTC.
That is a loss of 3 BTC.
If you are buying a miner, it is surely because you want to get more BTC.
Instead, it gave you less.
It has used up lots of electricity, and generated lots of heat, to leave you with less BTC than you started with.
Where do I sign up?

[Flying Hellfish]

This is the problem:
I could have bought a jally for 13 BTC (then $160) when they first came out. That machine could have made me 10 BTC over its life (now $1000+).

You would have given up 13 BTC to get 10 BTC.
That is a loss of 3 BTC.
If you are buying a miner, it is surely because you want to get more BTC.
Instead, it gave you less.
It has used up lots of electricity, and generated lots of heat, to leave you with less BTC than you started with.
Where do I sign up?

http://butterflylabs.com/

[lumpycustard]

And if it turned out to give you 20BTC but the USD/BTC rate sank to $5?  Clearly some people here will call that a good deal, but others would've preferred the cash.

[Syke]

And if it turned out to give you 20BTC but the USD/BTC rate sank to $5?  Clearly some people here will call that a good deal, but others would've preferred the cash.

Yes, 20 BTC is better than 13 BTC and better than 10 BTC. AT ANY AND ALL EXCHANGE RATES.

[k9quaint]

And if it turned out to give you 20BTC but the USD/BTC rate sank to $5?  Clearly some people here will call that a good deal, but others would've preferred the cash.

If you are buying an ASIC miner, you have already decided to buy BTC. The question then becomes, what is the best method to acquire BTC?
For every point on the USD/BTC exchange rate, 13 BTC is worth more than 10 BTC and 20 BTC is worth more than 13 BTC. If the device gives you 20, then you would be better off than if you bought a device that gave you 10. You would also be better off than if you had bought the 13 BTC from MtGox and held it.

Now if the exchange rate drops to $5, the problem was that you decided to invest in BTC, even though you may have picked the best way to do so.

[bcp19]

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  

The price I wanted for my Z28 last November equaled 400BTC.  I am simply honoring your insistance that BTC should remain an unchanging currency.  Therefore the price remains 400BTC.  If you would have been willing to pay 400BTC for it last Novemebr, under your current mindset, then you should also be willing to pay the same 400 BTC for it now.

Your unwillingness to indicates you feel you would be ripped off.  Can you explain why you feel that way?

[k9quaint]

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  

The price I wanted for my Z28 last November equaled 400BTC.  I am simply honoring your insistance that BTC should remain an unchanging currency.  Therefore the price remains 400BTC.  If you would have been willing to pay 400BTC for it last Novemebr, under your current mindset, then you should also be willing to pay the same 400 BTC for it now.

Your unwillingness to indicates you feel you would be ripped off.  Can you explain why you feel that way?

I did not say that BTC is an unchanging currency. I said when you buy an ASIC miner you are buying BTC because the only thing that determines the equipment's ultimate worth is the amount of BTC it returns by mining. Those are very different statements.

You want to sell me an ASIC miner called a Z28 for 400 BTC, but your Z28 hasher is expected to mine 0 BTC, so I would never pay 400 BTC for it. If you could demonstrate that the Z28 hasher was expected to mine over 500 BTC, I would consider paying 400 BTC for it.

[bcp19]

I would have sold you my 92 Z28 for 400BTC last November.  You can still have it for 400BTC today.  Put up or shut up.

The number of Bitcoins a Z28 is expected to mine over it's lifetime: 0
The number of Bitcoins I must pay for the Z28: 400
My expected loss in Bitcoins if I were to enter in this transaction: 400
No, I do not want to buy your Z28 to mine Bitcoins with. Try again.  

The price I wanted for my Z28 last November equaled 400BTC.  I am simply honoring your insistance that BTC should remain an unchanging currency.  Therefore the price remains 400BTC.  If you would have been willing to pay 400BTC for it last Novemebr, under your current mindset, then you should also be willing to pay the same 400 BTC for it now.

Your unwillingness to indicates you feel you would be ripped off.  Can you explain why you feel that way?

I did not say that BTC is an unchanging currency. I said when you buy an ASIC miner you are buying BTC because the only thing that determines the equipment's ultimate worth is the amount of BTC it returns by mining. Those are very different statements.

You want to sell me an ASIC miner called a Z28 for 400 BTC, but your Z28 hasher is expected to mine 0 BTC, so I would never pay 400 BTC for it. If you could demonstrate that the Z28 hasher was expected to mine over 500 BTC, I would consider paying 400 BTC for it.

It does have over 400 horsepower.  All you need to do is figure out how to get 1.25 BTC worth of mining per horsepoewer and you are set.  Maybe you could develop a drum and use the horsepower to drive the drum and then have the drum turn wheels that calculated hashes and boom. you're set!

[User705]

I welcome all people who think this way to the BTC world.  BTC is a zero sum game so whatever extra fiat value they waste into BTC makes my holdings worth that much more.