{BFL} Why The Monarch Might Just Work

[Vorksholk]

At this time, there's an extreme amount of hatred towards BFL, orders that were ordered a year ago still have not arrived, etc.

I'm going to play the other end of story. I converted an order I had into a Monarch, perhaps a bit reluctantly.

Right now, they are in the tapeout process, so they are making some good progress.

The important point, however, is that this device has a few key differences from their previous product production runs. First, a large supply issue for BFL this round was the power supplies. This card doesn't need a power supply, and instead relies on a user-supplied PSU. They already have drivers made, and will likely only need to tweak their existing software to support the new architecture. They have more production employees right now than they ever had before, and they've worked through the kinks of ASIC production before, and at least have a bit of knowledge going into this second round that they were lacking when they were going into the first round.

If you have an order from 2013, it may make sense for you to upgrade. By the time those devices arrive, they may be fairly useless. Assuming a 50% growth rate per month until the end of the year, if you receive your 60GH/s ASIC in early October, it's very likely that, especially for the devices you paid $2,500 for, you will never see that money fully returned by the device. The monarch is still a wildcard, and in the event that it goes correctly, converting your current order to a Monarch, especially if you don't have to pay much extra money to cover the bridge, will likely be beneficial. However, if the monarch is late, and all the other ASIC companies like KnCMiner, HashFast, xCrowd(.co.uk), Bitfury, etc. deliver on time and in spec, then the monarch will be essentially useless.

I'm not saying to buy one, but if they actually do ship by the end of the year, you heard it here first. If they don't, just quietly forget this thread.

Edit: Not a sock puppet. I don't love BFL. I simply see it as my best option at this point, and think they might be capable of meeting my expectations.

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[dogie]

How can you believe a word they say, after everything? Stockholm?

[01BTC10]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking

[jspielberg]

How can you believe a word they say, after everything? Stockholm?

I agree with the TL;DR consensus from the other threads.
The only people I see going for this are people who are locked in with their non-ROI 2012 and 2013 orders hoping to move up the line (like this poor soul OP).
Which is exactly what BFL intends... clear up the backlog... get them off the old backlog onto the new back log and by some time (possibly).

[cypherdoc]

beat me, beat me, please.

[erschiessen]

It will work in keeping wishful BFL customers from filing complaints.

It will work in bringing in lots of BTC.

It will work to make them rich as they skip the country once Sonny's parole ends in a month.

Dumb fuckers here are actually dumber than the elderly dupes that Sonny fucked to earn the only thing that he has earned in his life... a felony conviction (via guilty plea).

I find it difficult to believe.

BFL didn't rake enough suckers with chips to run for the border... so they 'created' 28nm technology that up until a couple of weeks ago said was IMPOSSIBLE.

They have not only made the impossible possible in Two Weeks^TM - they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

And there are dumb fuckers that are dumb enough to fall for it?

Sock-puppets, the only explanation.

[cypherdoc]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

[01BTC10]

they will package the impossible into a PCI/e GPU styled and sized device.

yeah, i noticed the pic of a gpu-like looking card.  what is that all about?

Alien technology.

[Bitcoinorama]

I believe Butterfly Labs have stepped back and looked at where most of their original income (and associated vocal discontent) has come from;

Miners that gave up their rigs and possibly still mine their cards on Alt-coins.

They have the infrastructure in place w.r.t. the rigs themseleves.

They feel, and quite rightly have been the most hard done by, largely as they paid in Bitcoins, thus have lost  out on equivalent fiat value due to subsequent market activity. Their risk admittedly, but the time involved was significant, and never meant to reach March, let alone September. Likewise they've had no means of consumer protection by that chosen payment method, so are effectively locked in by their payment choice for a pre-order, unlike others who are gradually realising they can't be held hostage despite BFL's demands.

The answer is to match the leading competitors promise and offer a means that incorporates the equipment they have to hand. Equipment that everyone owns, and is widely distributed and is nostalgic to the community.

However with BFL's track record of cooling issues, and under performance, my gut instinct is that these will be problems revisited, or the performance specs will have to be drastically reduced to compensate.

[Tamerz]

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

[MWNinja]

I think most April 2013 and later orders (the ones that have to pay the 10% extra) will kick the can forward to this new "vapor" device, with the chance of being one of the first to get the the next gen product they will at least have some remote possibility of seeing ROI . Their card looks like a Radeon reference design photoshop; I wonder what kind of involvement AMD has in the project.

[felente]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking

Yes.

I believe Butterfly Labs have stepped back and looked at where most of their original income (and associated vocal discontent) has come from;
Miners that gave up their rigs and possibly still mine their cards on Alt-coins.
They have the infrastructure in place w.r.t. the rigs themseleves.

Yes.

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

I do not know simply. I mean it.
You sure?

only thing i say - that's VERY smart move and i'm glad this is projected at least.

[Flying Hellfish]

Their card looks like a Radeon reference design photoshop; I wonder what kind of involvement AMD has in the project.

Other than having their design borrowed, exactly 0% chance AMD has anything to do with this at all.

[xzempt]

this will never happen.....  unless they buy someone elses chip..... 

[Xian01]

You know what else might just work ? Holding onto two live electrical wires whilst jumping into a vat of acid, hoping to acquire super-powers.

Or you could take a chance on this product.

Either choice is liable to cause you pain and suffering.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

You know what else might just work ? Holding onto two live electrical wires whilst jumping into a vat of acid, hoping to acquire super-powers.

Or you could take a chance on this product.

Either choice is liable to cause you pain and suffering.

At least with one of the choices, sex is involved.

[felente]

well, design is not borrowed especially from amd. nvidia has similar designs too.

first - this is simply right design to build such things in general;
second - this is a publication of an idea an not production-look - design details will change 100%;
third - THIS seems to me the WAY TO GO regarding mining equipment in the perspective, IMHO.

in any case i'm very interested how this concept will continue.

[k9quaint]

At this time, there's an extreme amount of hatred towards BFL, orders that were ordered a year ago still have not arrived, etc.

I'm going to play the other end of story. I converted an order I had into a Monarch, perhaps a bit reluctantly.

Right now, they are in the tapeout process, so they are making some good progress.

The important point, however, is that this device has a few key differences from their previous product production runs. First, a large supply issue for BFL this round was the power supplies. This card doesn't need a power supply, and instead relies on a user-supplied PSU. They already have drivers made, and will likely only need to tweak their existing software to support the new architecture. They have more production employees right now than they ever had before, and they've worked through the kinks of ASIC production before, and at least have a bit of knowledge going into this second round that they were lacking when they were going into the first round.

If you have an order from 2013, it may make sense for you to upgrade. By the time those devices arrive, they may be fairly useless. Assuming a 50% growth rate per month until the end of the year, if you receive your 60GH/s ASIC in early October, it's very likely that, especially for the devices you paid $2,500 for, you will never see that money fully returned by the device. The monarch is still a wildcard, and in the event that it goes correctly, converting your current order to a Monarch, especially if you don't have to pay much extra money to cover the bridge, will likely be beneficial. However, if the monarch is late, and all the other ASIC companies like KnCMiner, HashFast, xCrowd(.co.uk), Bitfury, etc. deliver on time and in spec, then the monarch will be essentially useless.

I'm not saying to buy one, but if they actually do ship by the end of the year, you heard it here first. If they don't, just quietly forget this thread.

Why don't you just get a refund?

PSA:
If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules).
First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky.
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. One customer has already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises from BFL.

There are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0

[Tamerz]

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

I do not know simply. I mean it.
You sure?

only thing i say - that's VERY smart move and i'm glad this is projected at least.

No, of course I don't know "for sure". I'm just looking at their track record. They always over promise and under deliver. Not once have they come even close to their power estimations.

EDIT: I do want to note that I think they make excellent hardware despite everything else. It is just frustrating that they can be so off from their pre-order estimates.

[AsicShill]

There is no way it will release on time and in that form factor.

I do not know simply. I mean it.
You sure?

only thing i say - that's VERY smart move and i'm glad this is projected at least.

No, of course I don't know "for sure". I'm just looking at their track record. They always over promise and under deliver. Not once have they come even close to their power estimations.

Hey maybe they will end up giving you 6 PCI cards each generating 100GH if they miss. 
Hope you have lots of spare chassis and lots of high capacity power supplies (assuming they are able to produce at all --- magic 8-ball is looking pretty negative).  To twist an  "investing" phrase - past failures is no guarantee for future success