Just keep it in mind that there is someone has more than 10k bitcoin

[imperi]

Keep in mind that there are people out there with more than $100 billion dollars, Warren Buffet for example. He can at any moment, use 0.1% of his money to boost the bitcoin market to $1000+ per coin. So hold on to your coins.  

He's giving it all away though.

[Piper67]

Precisely... a monkey with a ouija board has a better chance of predicting this market than anyone here. The number of variables is just too great to be able to compute them. My bet is that, in the long run, we're going upwards... but each of us has to do as our intellect dictates.

Don't take offense by this, but are you a pacifist? Because usually pacifists like to watch and call shots. I'm a fighter. If the market is going to go well, I feel somehow like it's got to be by my doing (at least on a minute scale) and it makes me get out there and get it done. Is that wrong?  

Heh, depends on what you mean by pacifist... In general terms, I'd rather have peace than war, yes. In this case, though, it isn't about pacifism in the least. We're all doing what we think is best for us, or for the bitcoin in general, obviously. But I'm not out to lunch enough to think I'm going to be making much of a dent on my own... and I have too much of a conscience to try and persuade others to do something just for my own selfish interests. In fact, you and I are on the same page (as I'm assuming is Serge), we'll do what we think and feel is best at any given time.

What's best for you, however, may be quite different to what's best for me. And what your mind thinks is the right time to do it will also likely be different. That's why the market is what it is. If there was a formula, then someone would've written it down ages ago and it would apply across the board. But there isn't, and it doesn't. This entire market may well depend on whether some 17 year old kid who started mining for a lark back in 2009 now really wants to get his hands on a Porsche!

[imperi]

This entire market may well depend on whether some 17 year old kid who started mining for a lark back in 2009 now really wants to get his hands on a Porsche!

It's funny because it's true.  

He would've already sold many of his coins by now. Also a 17 year old would not have found out about Bitcoin back then, or it would be extremely unlikely.

[qikaifu]

yeah, lets drive market to low levels - that is the best way for it's growth. nobody buy anything at all!

Don't twist my point of view, Serge. I'm just trying to stop people from panic buying, and at the same time suggest a smart buying at a low price.

If you're all in, just ignore my suggestion. If you're still have USD in the account of Mtgox, I guess you won't be regret with thinking about my suggestion.

And how will you know when it's time to turn around? will you send signals to all telling everyone should buy now as much as possible because we are going to fly through the roof?
What if someone going to listen to you and miss out boat completely?  Will you just tell them "sorry, you shouldn't have listened to me"?

Advice to anyone: do what you got to do and what you feel is right and if you make a mistake, take it as a lesson and adjust your tactic in the future. Don't listen to bears nor bulls, all their advice is driven purely by personal gain interest.

If holding part bitcoin part USD, nobody will miss the boat in either direction.

If you don't feel it's right time to buy - don't buy! simple as that. But you won't stop others from buying and selling at rates they feel right for themselves. You're just making yourself look like those screaming SELL SELL SELL and BUY BUY BUY but with a twist =)

You know what, if one day bitcoin gets so popularly accepted, that even more big voice will start to give advise on the trading, like morgan stanley, goldman sacks and so on. They will predict the market in a more God-like way, maybe phrase like "target price" will be used. They will connect every single clue of what happened on the earth to the price of bitcoin. All the news paper will be full of this kind of suggestions.

So what? Everybody still will be doing what they like to do. I don't think my suggestion will manipulate the market that much, nobody's will. But I do think that my suggestion is useful to a handful of people.

[qikaifu]

Keep in mind that there are people out there with more than $100 billion dollars, Warren Buffet for example. He can at any moment, use 0.1% of his money boost the bitcoin market to $1000+ per coin. So hold on to your coins.  

Very good point.

Warren Buffet has wealth in cash or bond only around 20 billion. And he said that he don't like the idea to invest in gold or money. Nonetheless, there is still possibility that Warren Buffet will buy some bitcoin, even it's a tiny tinny one. In that case, the big rally will come, just as what happened to every asset Warren Buffet declaring that he has purchased.

Considering that there is lots of investors, both individuals or institutions, the long term rally is certain for me. However, we don't still have a real exchange yet. (Mtgox, tradehill or even Campbx today, are not somewhere a institution with sound internal control system or a high net wealth persons with dozens of financial/legal adviser dare to put their money in, even they are willingly to do so. Especially, most the institutional investor are playing OPM, other people's money, of course  they one day will invest their USD into bitcoin like they did on the forex market, however, the trading platform we have now are still unacceptable for them. （I think Keyur is working on it, based on the recent news report. However, this will take lots of capital to invest and troublesome legal job to deal with. So, long way to go.)
 
Only 100% free individual like us dare to trade on Campbx, tradehill or mtgox. And I think the most speedy growth of the adopters like us has gone, the growth of users will continue but at a slower pace. until

1)we get a user-friendly and easy-to-keep-it-safe client software;
2) trustworthy-bitcoin-bank-with-100%-reserve service;
3)and one of the exchanges are ready for the institutional investors as there is no legal barrier to invest in OPM

the market will just fluctuate in a very random way. As mentioned in above post, the market will have a significant crash if some geeky teenager boy fall in love with a girl and decide to sell most of his mined coins to do something for the girl. (You know, female are not aware of the value of the bitcoin as much as male now.)

As the time  is very long before the 3 conditions ready for next big rally, I think the possibility is significant that in the coming weeks there will be a more favorite price. Maybe the price will somehow higher than now after the end of this period, but the fluctuation will be more major theme than rising.

[Serge]

@qikaifu, your suggestion screams hidden message though your recent posts: "PEOPLE, I WANT TO BUY LOW", anyone  of us would like to buy low but none of us knows how market will react next moment. Your advice as good as next guy's who says BTC will reach $1000 by the end of the year. You maybe right or you maybe wrong. I personally don't engage in "suggesting" to others what do and how to act on the market, it will take it's own course regardless how we want it to behave at any given moment.

You say  "don't let them drive price up, they will sell lower" to which opposite can be said just as well "don't sell low they will buy higher". Act on your own and lets see where market takes us from here.  And remember it may be very difficult for market to rebound and take helluva long time if it drops low enough and forget about expansion and growth then. If enough people loose confidence in the market you may end up at a loss even if you bought in at lower rates. Be careful what you wish for

[Serge]

And lets assume for a moment that market follows your suggestion  "don't let them drive price up, they will sell lower"
You and everyone else buy at lower rates, then next guy just like you comes in and suggest at those lower rates same thing you are suggesting "don't let them drive price up, they will sell lower"
If market would react on these suggestions, we would hit 0 pretty soon.  Obviously and thankfully nothing like this is happening in real world.

[qikaifu]

 And remember it may be very difficult for market to rebound and take helluva long time if it drops low enough and forget about expansion and growth then. If enough people loose confidence in the market you may end up at a loss even if you bought in at lower rates. Be careful what you wish for

The different between solid believers or weak ones is the former don't need the market price to prove their correctness. They just have the faith, even when the price fall from 32 to 0.01 in less than a week. And the number of solid believers is enough,  so the market will recover no matter how deep it falls.

[Littleshop]

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

 Be afraid, be very afraid.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

Because slashing the market is in the interest of big BTC holders?   

[Klestin]

Precisely... a monkey with a ouija board has a better chance of predicting this market than anyone here. The number of variables is just too great to be able to compute them. My bet is that, in the long run, we're going upwards... but each of us has to do as our intellect dictates.

Have the ouija board, so WTB monkey!

[qikaifu]

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

 Be afraid, be very afraid.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

Because slashing the market is in the interest of big BTC holders?   

People have different view about the future of bitcoin. Maybe the big BTC holders are not big believers.

[cypherdoc]

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

 Be afraid, be very afraid.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

Because slashing the market is in the interest of big BTC holders?   

People have different view about the future of bitcoin. Maybe the big BTC holders are not big believers.

you repeatedly put up these threads trying to spread FUD.  why don't you put you money where your mouth is if you're so sure the way its headed.  you ignored my bet offer in the last thread so i'll repeat it here:

i'll bet you 100 btc that the price of btc will be higher in USD one year from now than it is today.  put up or shut up.

[imperi]

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

 Be afraid, be very afraid.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

Because slashing the market is in the interest of big BTC holders?    

People have different view about the future of bitcoin. Maybe the big BTC holders are not big believers.

you repeatedly put up these threads trying to spread FUD.  why don't you put you money where your mouth is if you're so sure the way its headed.  you ignored my bet offer in the last thread so i'll repeat it here:

i'll bet you 100 btc that the price of btc will be higher in USD one year from now than it is today.  put up or shut up.

That's a terrible bet for him. If you win, you get more value in winnings than if he were to win. You need to bet something that has sticky value such as dollars.

[elk-tamer]

I think we need a captcha to prevent these stream-of-conciousness threads. Similar subjects exist, have been 'debated' all to hell and back. This isn't bringing anything new to the table. Perhaps a timeout function and search? It could show that what you are about to post has in fact been done before, and give you about 10 minutes to think about it.

I know, who am I kidding - nothing works with the obtuse.

Even better than a captcha would be to have a function where every time qikaifu posted a new thread, he got punched really hard in the face. No censorship, just a little negative reinforcement.

[cypherdoc]

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

 Be afraid, be very afraid.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

Because slashing the market is in the interest of big BTC holders?    

People have different view about the future of bitcoin. Maybe the big BTC holders are not big believers.

you repeatedly put up these threads trying to spread FUD.  why don't you put you money where your mouth is if you're so sure the way its headed.  you ignored my bet offer in the last thread so i'll repeat it here:

i'll bet you 100 btc that the price of btc will be higher in USD one year from now than it is today.  put up or shut up.

That's a terrible bet for him. If you win, you get more value in winnings than if he were to win. You need to bet something that has sticky value such as dollars.

USD sticky value?  you mean the currency that has just gone straight down since 1913?

your argument is bunk.  i made this argument to you in the other BTCEconomist thread.  the market price now reflects all info about the USD/btc exchange rate today and there is no reason to think the price will be any different one yr from now than it is today.  no one knows which way the price is going to go.

b/c of that if the btc rate is 1 cent lower than today in 1 year, he still wins significant value from me.  if i win b/c the exchange rate is 1 cent higher, i win significant value.  your argument would hold only if the btc price plunges which seems highly unlikely to me and in that case, i still lose $1400.

[Littleshop]

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

 Be afraid, be very afraid.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

Because slashing the market is in the interest of big BTC holders?   

People have different view about the future of bitcoin. Maybe the big BTC holders are not big believers.

That is even dumber then your first statement.  So there is a big BTC holder who HATES his BTC and he wants to destroy the value of them? 

[cypherdoc]

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

 Be afraid, be very afraid.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

Because slashing the market is in the interest of big BTC holders?    

People have different view about the future of bitcoin. Maybe the big BTC holders are not big believers.

you repeatedly put up these threads trying to spread FUD.  why don't you put you money where your mouth is if you're so sure the way its headed.  you ignored my bet offer in the last thread so i'll repeat it here:

i'll bet you 100 btc that the price of btc will be higher in USD one year from now than it is today.  put up or shut up.

That's a terrible bet for him. If you win, you get more value in winnings than if he were to win. You need to bet something that has sticky value such as dollars.

USD sticky value?  you mean the currency that has just gone straight down since 1913?

your argument is bunk.  i made this argument to you in the other BTCEconomist thread.  the market price now reflects all info about the USD/btc exchange rate today and there is no reason to think the price will be any different one yr from now than it is today.  no one knows which way the price is going to go.

b/c of that if the btc rate is 1 cent lower than today in 1 year, he still wins significant value from me.  if i win b/c the exchange rate is 1 cent higher, i win significant value.  your argument would hold only if the btc price plunges which seems highly unlikely to me and in that case, i still lose $1400.

let me make this same argument this way:

if we make the bet in USD, say $1400, if the btc price goes to the moon b/c the USD goes to zero, its a stupid bet for me b/c i lose either way.  i would have sold $1400 worth of BTC to raise the money to place this bet in USD and i would have lost the opportunity to have benfitted from the moonshot of those same BTC and the USD i win will be worth zip.  hows that for stupid logic?

[Oldminer]

Man, some of you guys seriously need to learn how to use the quote button. Half the time I got no idea who your quoting...

[FreeMoney]

Is 10k supposed to be a lot? One market does many times this every day. If someone wants to get less money by selling in 1 minute instead of 4 hours all the better for buyers. Also people who are prone to selling 10k coins at a time likely would have sold them at $1, $2, $4, $8, $15, or $30. Since they declined to sell a single one of their remaining coins you can probably chill out.

So how does this work, am I supposed to wait a while after my pump posts to sell or do I do it right away?

[qikaifu]

hope you understand better what I mean when the price was slashed from 14.6 to 14.0; and suddenly big asking orders turn out.

And the market will prove even better my point: it's going to fluctuate in the near term without rally or bear direction. The weak believers will give up and a patient investor who still have cash will find better price. The next phase of rally will be unfold on a more consolidated platform.

Don't do panic buy. just hold your USD in the coming days or weeks, waiting for a more favorite price.