ask (OP)
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August 22, 2013, 12:34:33 PM Last edit: November 07, 2014, 06:01:54 AM by ask |
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Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.
Calculated date based on current numbers is: Saturday, 12 September 2016.
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Birdy
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August 22, 2013, 12:52:29 PM |
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It is mathematically expected, most people just haven't included the effect of lagging difficult adjustment. ^^ Depending on the network power growth this date will vary in months.
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ask (OP)
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August 22, 2013, 12:59:09 PM |
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Yes. And today is less than year after splitting. If we add also lagging difficulty adjustment, we will reach 12.5 per block before 2015...
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Birdy
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August 22, 2013, 01:12:02 PM Last edit: August 22, 2013, 02:44:01 PM by Birdy |
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Let's have some data: Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. Currently we are at block 253,606
So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.
Without any difficulty change: 166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)
With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 / 1.15 = 1004 days (22.05.2016)
With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 / 1.25 = 924 days (03.03.2016)
So...uhm how did you calculate to get 2015?
Edit: Corrected the math ^^
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gog1
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August 22, 2013, 01:30:33 PM |
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Let's have some data: Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. Currently we are at block 253,606
So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.
Without any difficulty change: 166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)
With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)
With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)
So...uhm how did you calculate to get 2015?
he may assume diff goes up by 50% every adjustment.
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Rannasha
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August 22, 2013, 01:56:48 PM |
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With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)
With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)
and... With 100% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0 = 0 days Divide by 1 + D rather than multiplying with 1 - D to obtain the correct amount of days until the halfing.
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zoinky
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August 22, 2013, 02:12:29 PM |
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Le Happy Merchant
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August 22, 2013, 02:13:42 PM |
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Let's have some data: Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. Currently we are at block 253,606
So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.
Without any difficulty change: 166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)
With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)
With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)
So...uhm how did you calculate to get 2015?
he may assume diff goes up by 50% every adjustment. What a strange assumption, that would require an exponential curve of the order (difficulty)(1.5)^x, and would mean that the amount of hashing devices would more than double every month. It really doesn't seem sustainable, I want OP to elucidate.
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Birdy
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August 22, 2013, 02:37:54 PM |
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With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)
With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)
and... With 100% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0 = 0 days Divide by 1 + D rather than multiplying with 1 - D to obtain the correct amount of days until the halfing. Oh thanks for pointing that out. Indeed, my bad. Edited my post.
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geraFoerra
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August 22, 2013, 02:44:14 PM |
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What a strange assumption, that would require an exponential curve of the order (difficulty)(1.5)^x, and would mean that the amount of hashing devices would more than double every month.
It really doesn't seem sustainable, I want OP to elucidate.
+1 It is not sustainable, thus autumn 2015 does not fit
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Zaih
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August 22, 2013, 02:46:57 PM |
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Inflation will finally be at a point that Bitcoin is built for.
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payb.tc
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August 22, 2013, 02:58:51 PM |
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this estimate doesn't take gradually rising network speed into account if network speed keeps increasing, then the real reward-drop date will creep further and further forward, compared to that estimate (as you can usually see if you keep checking bitcoin clock's estimate over a few weeks) example: right now it says Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes) ...let's see what it says in a few weeks
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zoinky
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August 22, 2013, 03:11:42 PM |
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this estimate doesn't take gradually rising network speed into account if network speed keeps increasing, then the real reward-drop date will creep further and further forward, compared to that estimate (as you can usually see if you keep checking bitcoin clock's estimate over a few weeks) example: right now it says Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes) ...let's see what it says in a few weeks This is true, but I'd say its the closest estimate you can get. I do not think 2015 will be the next block rewarding, that would be way ahead of schedule. How long do you believe ASICs will keep folding over the hashrate 100%/month?
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Birdy
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August 22, 2013, 03:18:07 PM |
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This is true, but I'd say its the closest estimate you can get. I do not think 2015 will be the next block rewarding, that would be way ahead of schedule. How long do you believe ASICs will keep folding over the hashrate 100%/month?
I think 22.05.2016 or earlier is a way better estimate. It's very likely that we will have 15% or more growth in computing power.
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payb.tc
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August 22, 2013, 04:11:58 PM |
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this estimate doesn't take gradually rising network speed into account if network speed keeps increasing, then the real reward-drop date will creep further and further forward, compared to that estimate (as you can usually see if you keep checking bitcoin clock's estimate over a few weeks) example: right now it says Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes) ...let's see what it says in a few weeks This is true, but I'd say its the closest estimate you can get. I do not think 2015 will be the next block rewarding, that would be way ahead of schedule. How long do you believe ASICs will keep folding over the hashrate 100%/month? well, just going by the experience of seeing the clock's first reward-drop prediction (early december 2012) creep ahead by about 2 months in the time that i watched it, my personal guess for the next one is may 2016 edit: wow i just noticed birdy predicted the same
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murraypaul
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August 22, 2013, 04:19:05 PM |
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Let's have some data: Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. Currently we are at block 253,606
So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.
Without any difficulty change: 166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)
Blocks are being found at greater than 6 per hour. Because hashing power keeps increasing, and difficulty a) increases later, and b) only catches up with current difficulty, and does not attempt to compensate for the time that has past since the last increase. This means that the ideal average of 10 minutes per block is not being reached.
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BTC: 16TgAGdiTSsTWSsBDphebNJCFr1NT78xFW SRC: scefi1XMhq91n3oF5FrE3HqddVvvCZP9KB
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Birdy
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August 22, 2013, 04:50:13 PM |
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Let's have some data: Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. Currently we are at block 253,606
So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.
Without any difficulty change: 166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)
Blocks are being found at greater than 6 per hour. Because hashing power keeps increasing, and difficulty a) increases later, and b) only catches up with current difficulty, and does not attempt to compensate for the time that has past since the last increase. This means that the ideal average of 10 minutes per block is not being reached. Yeah I know, why did you quote half of my post and didn't quote the rest where exactly this is included just to tell me that again?
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naphto
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August 25, 2013, 02:23:18 PM |
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Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.
Calculated date based on current numbers is: Saturday, 12 September 2015.
Hopefully there will be less miners and difficult will be lower.
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Birdy
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August 25, 2013, 03:09:02 PM |
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Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.
Calculated date based on current numbers is: Saturday, 12 September 2015.
Hopefully there will be less miners and difficult will be lower. Even if there would be less miners, technology (e.g. better mining chips) is going to increase difficulty. It is very unlikely that we will see a lower difficulty any time soon.
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payb.tc
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August 26, 2013, 05:03:42 AM |
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example: right now it says Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes) ...let's see what it says in a few weeks well look at that, it's already crept ahead by 19 hours over just the last 3.5 days Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 00:50:45 UTC (164 weeks, 2 days, 23 hours, 50 minutes)
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