Date for 12.5 BTC per Block - autmn 2016

[ask]

Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.

Calculated date based on current numbers  is: Saturday, 12 September 2016.

[1714809948]

1714809948

[Birdy]

It is mathematically expected, most people just haven't included the effect of lagging difficult adjustment. ^^
Depending on the network power growth this date will vary in months.

[ask]

Yes.

And today is less than year after splitting. If we add also lagging difficulty adjustment, we will reach 12.5 per block before 2015...

 

[Birdy]

Let's have some data:
Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks.
Currently we are at block 253,606

So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.

Without any difficulty change:
166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)

With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 / 1.15 = 1004 days (22.05.2016)

With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 / 1.25 = 924 days (03.03.2016)

So...uhm how did you calculate to get 2015?


Edit: Corrected the math ^^

[gog1]

Let's have some data:
Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks.
Currently we are at block 253,606

So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.

Without any difficulty change:
166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)

With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)

With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)

So...uhm how did you calculate to get 2015?

he may assume diff goes up by 50% every adjustment.

[Rannasha]

With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)

With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)

and... With 100% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0 = 0 days

Divide by 1 + D rather than multiplying with 1 - D to obtain the correct amount of days until the halfing.

[zoinky]

www.bitcoinclock.com

[Le Happy Merchant]

Let's have some data:
Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks.
Currently we are at block 253,606

So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.

Without any difficulty change:
166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)

With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)

With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)

So...uhm how did you calculate to get 2015?

he may assume diff goes up by 50% every adjustment.

What a strange assumption, that would require an exponential curve of the order (difficulty)(1.5)^x, and would mean that the amount of hashing devices would more than double every month.

It really doesn't seem sustainable, I want OP to elucidate.

[Birdy]

With 15% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.85 = 981 days (29.04.2016)

With 25% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0.75 = 866 days (05.01.2016)

and... With 100% growth every adjustment = 1155 * 0 = 0 days

Divide by 1 + D rather than multiplying with 1 - D to obtain the correct amount of days until the halfing.

Oh thanks for pointing that out. Indeed, my bad.
Edited my post.

[geraFoerra]

What a strange assumption, that would require an exponential curve of the order (difficulty)(1.5)^x, and would mean that the amount of hashing devices would more than double every month.

It really doesn't seem sustainable, I want OP to elucidate.

+1

It is not sustainable, thus autumn 2015 does not fit

[Zaih]

Inflation will finally be at a point that Bitcoin is built for.

[payb.tc]

www.bitcoinclock.com

this estimate doesn't take gradually rising network speed into account

if network speed keeps increasing, then the real reward-drop date will creep further and further forward, compared to that estimate

(as you can usually see if you keep checking bitcoin clock's estimate over a few weeks)

example: right now it says

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes)

...let's see what it says in a few weeks

[zoinky]

www.bitcoinclock.com

this estimate doesn't take gradually rising network speed into account

if network speed keeps increasing, then the real reward-drop date will creep further and further forward, compared to that estimate

(as you can usually see if you keep checking bitcoin clock's estimate over a few weeks)

example: right now it says

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes)

...let's see what it says in a few weeks

This is true, but I'd say its the closest estimate you can get.  I do not think 2015 will be the next block rewarding, that would be way ahead of schedule.  How long do you believe ASICs will keep folding over the hashrate 100%/month?

[Birdy]

This is true, but I'd say its the closest estimate you can get.  I do not think 2015 will be the next block rewarding, that would be way ahead of schedule.  How long do you believe ASICs will keep folding over the hashrate 100%/month?

I think 22.05.2016 or earlier is a way better estimate. It's very likely that we will have 15% or more growth in computing power.

[payb.tc]

www.bitcoinclock.com

this estimate doesn't take gradually rising network speed into account

if network speed keeps increasing, then the real reward-drop date will creep further and further forward, compared to that estimate

(as you can usually see if you keep checking bitcoin clock's estimate over a few weeks)

example: right now it says

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes)

...let's see what it says in a few weeks

This is true, but I'd say its the closest estimate you can get.  I do not think 2015 will be the next block rewarding, that would be way ahead of schedule.  How long do you believe ASICs will keep folding over the hashrate 100%/month?

well, just going by the experience of seeing the clock's first reward-drop prediction (early december 2012) creep ahead by about 2 months in the time that i watched it, my personal guess for the next one is may 2016

edit: wow i just noticed birdy predicted the same

[murraypaul]

Let's have some data:
Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks.
Currently we are at block 253,606

So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.

Without any difficulty change:
166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)

Blocks are being found at greater than 6 per hour.
Because hashing power keeps increasing, and difficulty a) increases later, and b) only catches up with current difficulty, and does not attempt to compensate for the time that has past since the last increase.
This means that the ideal average of 10 minutes per block is not being reached.

[Birdy]

Let's have some data:
Reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks.
Currently we are at block 253,606

So we have 210,000 - 43,606 = 166,394 blocks left until the reward halving.

Without any difficulty change:
166,394 at 6 per hour = 1155 days (20.10.2016)

Blocks are being found at greater than 6 per hour.
Because hashing power keeps increasing, and difficulty a) increases later, and b) only catches up with current difficulty, and does not attempt to compensate for the time that has past since the last increase.
This means that the ideal average of 10 minutes per block is not being reached.

Yeah I know, why did you quote half of my post and didn't quote the rest where exactly this is included just to tell me that again?

[naphto]

Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.

Calculated date based on current numbers  is: Saturday, 12 September 2015.

Hopefully there will be less miners and difficult will be lower.

[Birdy]

Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.

Calculated date based on current numbers  is: Saturday, 12 September 2015.

Hopefully there will be less miners and difficult will be lower.

Even if there would be less miners, technology (e.g. better mining chips) is going to increase difficulty.
It is very unlikely that we will see a lower difficulty any time soon.

[payb.tc]

www.bitcoinclock.com

example: right now it says

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 19:35:08 UTC (165 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes)

...let's see what it says in a few weeks

well look at that, it's already crept ahead by 19 hours over just the last 3.5 days

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-20 00:50:45 UTC (164 weeks, 2 days, 23 hours, 50 minutes)