Date for 12.5 BTC per Block - autmn 2016

[notme]

Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.

Calculated date based on current numbers  is: Saturday, 12 September 2015.

Hopefully there will be less miners and difficult will be lower.

Even if there would be less miners, technology (e.g. better mining chips) is going to increase difficulty.
It is very unlikely that we will see a lower difficulty any time soon.

Depends on price.  If the bears get their wish and we really capitulate hard, we could see a temporary dip in difficulty a few months out.  Non refundable preorders may smooth it out though.

[Odalv]

Simple calculation has shown that next reward splitting will be more than year before mathematically expected.

Calculated date based on current numbers  is: Saturday, 12 September 2015.

Hopefully there will be less miners and difficult will be lower.

Even if there would be less miners, technology (e.g. better mining chips) is going to increase difficulty.
It is very unlikely that we will see a lower difficulty any time soon.

Depends on price.  If the bears get their wish and we really capitulate hard, we could see a temporary dip in difficulty a few months out.  Non refundable preorders may smooth it out though.

Network totat: 500 Thash/sec = 500,000 Ghash/s  
There are mined 3600 btc/day (maybe more)

500,000[GHash/s] / 3600[btc/day] => 139 GHash/s and you will mine 1 BTC/day

with asic ( 0,6-2,5 W/GHash ) it will cost you 2-8 kWh per Bitcoin of electricity => ( $1-$4 ? )

[painlord2k]

Theoretically we should be around 11.3% inflation of the number of bitcoin in existence (B0) as today.
If we suppose a 25% faster rate of mining, the real inflation of B0 is around 14%/year.

My assumption is a lot of bitcoins are locked in some long term cold storage never touched by anyone, so the real B0 used for daily transactions (the part affecting now the exchange rates with fiat) is a lot lower.
If we suppose all bitcoin mined are sold in the market for cash (to recoup investments and pay for expenses) this would cause a lot larger real inflation of the number of bitcoin available on the market and push the price lower a lot lower.

The  alternatives are two:
1) not all bitcoin mined are sold in the market for fiat, just a minimum needed to pay living expenses. Every profit is left in BTC form.
2) a lot of fiat is, anyway, entering the BTC ecosystem and being converted in BTC (directly via exchanges or indirectly via direct selling of good and service) and these BTC are saved for a later time and not used to buy stuff or services or re-exchanged for fiat, reducing the number of BTC offered on the market.

Faster than designed mining and increasing price of BTC are a good sign. If we get halving ahead of schedule, the inflation will become half overnight ahead of schedule, reducing a lot the offer of newly minted BTC.
BTC  would go ahead of schedule from 9.1% of inflation to 4.55% of inflation per year. The price would skyrocket.
For comparison, the monetary base of € went from 400 to 1.200 billions from 2002 to 2012 (11.2% inflation per year), this in a period where inflation were considered low.

Just now, the inflation in Bitcoin is at par with the inflation in the € (and a bit lower than the US$). The price is driven just by adoption as a payment system and saving.
But as we approach the next halving the reasons to move from fiat to BTC to save become stronger.
Given the current situation, at the next halving, we can expect an advantage of 4.5% on the rate of inflation for Bitcoin against the €.
And there are a lot more advantages to hold bitcoin instead of fiat in the bank or outside the bank (like not be dependant on the bank solvency and liquidity, the central bank restraining, the government limitation).

[Odalv]

Theoretically we should be around 11.3% inflation of the number of bitcoin in existence (B0) as today.
If we suppose a 25% faster rate of mining, the real inflation of B0 is around 14%/year.

My assumption is a lot of bitcoins are locked in some long term cold storage never touched by anyone, so the real B0 used for daily transactions (the part affecting now the exchange rates with fiat) is a lot lower.
If we suppose all bitcoin mined are sold in the market for cash (to recoup investments and pay for expenses) this would cause a lot larger real inflation of the number of bitcoin available on the market and push the price lower a lot lower.

The  alternatives are two:
1) not all bitcoin mined are sold in the market for fiat, just a minimum needed to pay living expenses. Every profit is left in BTC form.
2) a lot of fiat is, anyway, entering the BTC ecosystem and being converted in BTC (directly via exchanges or indirectly via direct selling of good and service) and these BTC are saved for a later time and not used to buy stuff or services or re-exchanged for fiat, reducing the number of BTC offered on the market.

Faster than designed mining and increasing price of BTC are a good sign. If we get halving ahead of schedule, the inflation will become half overnight ahead of schedule, reducing a lot the offer of newly minted BTC.
BTC  would go ahead of schedule from 9.1% of inflation to 4.55% of inflation per year. The price would skyrocket.
For comparison, the monetary base of € went from 400 to 1.200 billions from 2002 to 2012 (11.2% inflation per year), this in a period where inflation were considered low.

Just now, the inflation in Bitcoin is at par with the inflation in the € (and a bit lower than the US$). The price is driven just by adoption as a payment system and saving.
But as we approach the next halving the reasons to move from fiat to BTC to save become stronger.
Given the current situation, at the next halving, we can expect an advantage of 4.5% on the rate of inflation for Bitcoin against the €.
And there are a lot more advantages to hold bitcoin instead of fiat in the bank or outside the bank (like not be dependant on the bank solvency and liquidity, the central bank restraining, the government limitation).

Bitcoin adoption is far more higher than inflation. When price of Bitcoin goes from $13 to $130 (1,000%) driven by adoption then it does not matter if inflation is 4,55% or 11,3% because 1,000% - 11,3% is almost same as 1,000% - 4,55%.

Edit: even Gox fees are few times higher than inflation (Edit2: this is not true :-) )

[grovestr]

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-17 03:57:01 UTC

[payb.tc]

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-17 03:57:01 UTC

someone less lazy than me should make an "ETA observer" thread along the lines of wall observer

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-17 01:47:52 UTC (162 weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, 50 minutes)

...and they should call the thread something like "Date for 12.5 BTC per Block".

[niothor]

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-17 03:57:01 UTC

someone less lazy than me should make an "ETA observer" thread along the lines of wall observer

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-17 01:47:52 UTC (162 weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, 50 minutes)

...and they should call the thread something like "Date for 12.5 BTC per Block".

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-10 13:13:37 UTC (158 weeks, 6 days, 3 hours)

one week in 22 days

[cunixion]

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-17 03:57:01 UTC

someone less lazy than me should make an "ETA observer" thread along the lines of wall observer

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-17 01:47:52 UTC (162 weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, 50 minutes)

...and they should call the thread something like "Date for 12.5 BTC per Block".

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-10-10 13:13:37 UTC (158 weeks, 6 days, 3 hours)

one week in 22 days

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-09-07 11:17:53 UTC (136 weeks, 6 days, 12 hours, 30 minutes)

[notig]

so in 4 months the eta dropped by a month? Hmmm. if we extrapolate that then we are looking at maybe March of 2016? March of 2016 = 26 months... so 26/4 = 6.5 months .  9/2016 - 6.5 months = around march of 2016

[blueberry]

so in 4 months the eta dropped by a month? Hmmm. if we extrapolate that then we are looking at maybe March of 2016? March of 2016 = 26 months... so 26/4 = 6.5 months .  9/2016 - 6.5 months = around march of 2016

Only if the hash rate continues to grow exponentially, but at some point in the near future we may see the hash rate stabilize or even drop if mining becomes unprofitable.

[datehunter]

I always check bitcoin clock when I'm depressed about the current bitcoin's value.

[Soccruo]

How can the mining farms survive the block's halving if the price won't increase?

[maker88]

How can the mining farms survive the block's halving if the price won't increase?

The price WILL increase, which is why everyone is waiting for the reward halving with baited breath. Think about it, supply is 3600 coins a day, price doesn't drop like a stone every day so clearly demand is roughly equal to that supply. The day the reward halves, demand will not change at all, if anything it will increase as everyone scrambles for a slice of the pie that is now half eaten suddenly. Therefor demand is for 3500+ coins a day while less than 2000 are available. Cue the market price increase and volatility increases as supply and demand fight it out to equilibrium

[niothor]

How can the mining farms survive the block's halving if the price won't increase?

Basicaly what the person above has answered but with an extra
There are always the tx fee which will make the miners keep their gear running even after the future block reward halving

Currently the tx fee is around 10-15 Btc  per day but if the numbers of transactions multiply by 30 with the price increase of 10x we will have the same reward as today from mining fees alone .

[keystroke]

Well, we have moved to late July 2016 now. Summer 2016.

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-31 13:45:52 UTC (90 weeks, 2 days, 13 hours, 50 minutes)

[derpinheimer]

Math was not the OP's strongest area, I hope.