The thoughts of a bubble buyer

[neutrinox]

People might be wondering if there will be a massive sell off when the price of bitcoin approaches the bubble values of this spring. Here's what I think:

I happen to be one of the unfortunate, who bought into bitcoin during the spring bubble.

This was after watching the price almost double during one week, and trying to quickly study bitcoin and understand how everything works. Finally I decided that I can't wait any longer. I just had to get some coins or face the possibility of life long regret. The day I put in my buy order, was actually the highest peak day! Then the crash happened. Luckily the order took half a day to execute and I got my bitcoins for "only" 180 dollars/coin.

My thoughts were pretty much "God damn it, I knew it was too good to be true! I will never ever try something like this again. I should have known better."

Despite my negative feelings, I kept checking out bitcoin every once in while, considering if I should maybe accept the loss in order to avoid even bigger losses in the future.

When the price climbed all the way up to 150 I was thinking "wohoo, soon I can end this nightmare without making a loss!". Then it fell again.

Fast forward to this day. During the last months bitcoin has intrigued me more and more. I have kept a close eye on the BTC course. I keep reading these forums daily. I talk to people about bitcoin. Bitcoin has started to represent hope for me.

And something has changed. I'm not looking forward to sell my bitcoins in order to just break even anymore. After all the trouble and heartache I've been through with bitcoins, I simply won't settle anymore for any small profit. If I get double the price I paid originally, I might consider selling. But if that would be the case, it would be so bullish that I'm not sure if I could let them go. So it's actually quite hard to see myself selling my bitcoins now.

My point is simply this: I bought into the bubble, was looking for an exit for months, but wouldn't take the exit anymore without significant gains.

There might be many bubble buyers who are having a similar kind of change of heart. And this new feeling is quite bullish I have to say.

[1714981866]

1714981866

[1714981866]

1714981866

[rampantparanoia]

thats definitely bullish.

i myself see why btc is great, and believe myself it has a good future (if gov't doesn't screw it up somehow)... so i tend to hold some coins even while trading. you never know when the day comes, 2-3 coins could be worth a fortune if lucky (or pennies if not!)

[leemar]

Nice post OP

[zoinky]

oh i love self fulfilling prophecies.

[Tzupy]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

[leemar]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

If you want to trade, fair enough but if you want to invest because you believe in something it is silly to behave like a trader. 

You can forget about the ups and downs and wait to see if you are right or wrong.  If OP is right he/she is still in before the vast majority of people.  If he is wrong so are most of us on here.

[bitcon]

another thing to consider is not panic selling everything if it gets to a record high. i made this mistake when it hit $34 the second time thinking it couldnt get much higher, but it kept going to 266.  i can imagine many see 266 as another psychological selling point, but i will hold to see where the price goes this time.

[xxjs]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

(with-sarcasm
|This is really smart, but there must be a bug in the bitcointalk software, for the post is dated August, 2013 not April, 2013. May be it should be rewitten in common lisp. It also does not explain why you currently have no coins.|)

[shark32]

Something similar happens to me right now, with the one exception that I decided not to buy in last time, which turned out to be a good decision.  
But nontheless, I kept an eye on the market and the forum after the last bubble collapsed. Unfortunately I was too much a coward to not buy in at 70, and instead bought at 105.

Whereas I just looked at the Bitcoin price and the market situation itself the first few days, I soon began to have a closer look at the whole BTC-economy. I search the web for goods and services I could take use of all the time, and think of things I could sell for bitcoins.
The point is: Im not really interested in converting into fiat anymore. Instead I'm much more intrested in backing the Bitcoins value by helping build up a living economy. Even if this turned out to be not quite easy at the moment

Maybe more and more people start to take over this ideology, and the utopian vision of a vital and truly free "Bitconomy" could become as real as possibly thinkable.

Just for the record: Of course I will sell when I get the impression theres a big price drop soon to come. But just for re-investing everything in Bitcoin.  

[rampantparanoia]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

Wow, I didn't realize how easy trading was! You simply have to use hindsight and take all your positions in the past! I'm headed back in time to make a few trades myself. Later suckers!

Duuuude take me with you back to the $1 days

[thezerg]

What is interesting to me is that the time and pain may changed you from someone who was in it for a quick buck into someone who understands the value and potential.  Now that you are in it LT, you might actually end up ahead, as compared to buying in at 180 and selling at 300 (for example).

BTW, its a good strategy to trade in securities/commodities with good fundamentals.  That way if you get caught in a bull trap you can hold for the long term or even double down.

[Bitcopia]

OP's attitude is amazing and right on point. It sounds like you might be new to the world of investing, as you made a rather rash and questionable decision. However, you definitely have the potential to be a great investor with this kind of patience and ability to control your emotions. Most people who bought in at $180+ are sore about bitcoin because they let their emotions get the best of them, and they want to blame somebody. You took the time to understand. And for that, I commend you sir.

[neutrinox]

Thanks for all the replys!

For the guy who wrote I acted stupidly, you are right in the way that I could definitely have made moneny in between if I knew something about trading and markets. But like someone guessed, this was the very first time in my life I invested in anything. And I got burned badly. With that psychology it was hard to do any more "wise moves". I was following the BTC course and making trading decisions in my mind. I was wrong more than half of the time. I'm not sure if I could have made the right moves trying to day trade.

If you want to know the truth, there was one thing that probably had the strongest impact on keeping me from selling at a loss: foolish pride! You see when bitcoin crashed I faced some serious ridicule from one asshole that knew I had bought into bitcoin. He was telling me with confidence earlier that bitcoin is bullshit, that it's a ponzi/pyramid scheme and all that stuff. And I knew he was wrong because I had studied bitcoin by then. But just imagine his smug face ranting at me after the crash! That was one of the worst "I told you so's" I have ever received. So this guy is probably the biggest reason why I just couldn't accept selling with a loss. Maybe I will thank him in a few years!

[Bitcopia]

Haha ok so what I thought was patience and emotional control was actually just stubborn pride. Maybe you need a few more years.  Either way, it's cool that you stuck around and educated yourself.

[Zaih]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

How is that stupid, how was he to know?...

There's no 'stupid' moves in trading in that manner, no need to disregard someone for such an obscure reason..

[Tzupy]

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

[xxjs]

Tzupi is off. OP was maybe lucky with his stubbornness this time, but he also used the time to investigate. The key is knowledge - ability - action.

[oser41eric]

That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more

Seems you turned to pro trader fairly quickly, lucker. If I saw the future as clear as you, I would make fortune as well 

[Rampion]

People might be wondering if there will be a massive sell off when the price of bitcoin approaches the bubble values of this spring. Here's what I think:

I happen to be one of the unfortunate, who bought into bitcoin during the spring bubble.

This was after watching the price almost double during one week, and trying to quickly study bitcoin and understand how everything works. Finally I decided that I can't wait any longer. I just had to get some coins or face the possibility of life long regret. The day I put in my buy order, was actually the highest peak day! Then the crash happened. Luckily the order took half a day to execute and I got my bitcoins for "only" 180 dollars/coin.

My thoughts were pretty much "God damn it, I knew it was too good to be true! I will never ever try something like this again. I should have known better."

Despite my negative feelings, I kept checking out bitcoin every once in while, considering if I should maybe accept the loss in order to avoid even bigger losses in the future.

When the price climbed all the way up to 150 I was thinking "wohoo, soon I can end this nightmare without making a loss!". Then it fell again.

Fast forward to this day. During the last months bitcoin has intrigued me more and more. I have kept a close eye on the BTC course. I keep reading these forums daily. I talk to people about bitcoin. Bitcoin has started to represent hope for me.

And something has changed. I'm not looking forward to sell my bitcoins in order to just break even anymore. After all the trouble and heartache I've been through with bitcoins, I simply won't settle anymore for any small profit. If I get double the price I paid originally, I might consider selling. But if that would be the case, it would be so bullish that I'm not sure if I could let them go. So it's actually quite hard to see myself selling my bitcoins now.

My point is simply this: I bought into the bubble, was looking for an exit for months, but wouldn't take the exit anymore without significant gains.

There might be many bubble buyers who are having a similar kind of change of heart. And this new feeling is quite bullish I have to say.

Just my two cents: Ask yourself sincerely if you might think "something has changed" in you because in the last weeks Bitcoin has been stable (or in a growing trend). Ask to yourself if you wouldn't go back to the heartache if you see the price quickly crashing to sub-$50, or if you will not shit on your pants if Gox go broke or the regulators get harsher.

Anyhow, my recommendations is not waiting for "something to change" in you as you wrote, because that means that you are driven by emotions, which is a big mistake. Be cold minded and choose a strategy and follow it no matter what. If you are driven by emotions you will get greedy when the price skyrockets (you confirmed this point in your post: "If I get double the price I paid originally, I might consider selling. But if that would be the case, it would be so bullish that I'm not sure if I could let them go."). If the price goes into an exponential trend and doubles every week again, it looks like your greed will push you to hold so you can return the biggest "I told you so" to your friend. Beware.

Same thing applies for the opposite case: you felt a lot of heartache, "but something has changed". Why? Because the price is stable and looking good? Just be sure the heartache does not come back if there is a lot of blood on the streets, a huge crash and it seems like Bitcoin is headed to $0 - because anyway, did you invest ONLY money you can afford to lose?

[RationalSpeculator]

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

I think your criticism is very good, just no need to call him (or yourself) names.