Do any of these ASIC's actually make a ROI?

[crazy_rabbit]

After finding this nifty site: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/  and checking out lots of ASICS, it looks if you buy now, wait for delivery, nothing will make it's ROI.

Of course I subscribe to the idea that you are better off just buying the Bitcoins now versus investing into an ASIC. However, I already have Bitcoins (bought long, long, long ago) and I'm relatively Fiat Broke, so if I were to go an ASIC route, I would be spending Bitcoins anyway. I have held off till now because it seems like it's a smarter idea to wait for when ASICS can be purchased and delivered via 2 day shipping. Meaning, I can pretty much know what the difficulty will be when I receive my machine. At this point, even the conservative estimates make it look like top of the line miners won't arrive in time to pay for themselves.

What are others thinking?

[blastbob]

No worries, btc will hit 500 this year

[mazedk]

If you got the balls to gamble, do it. If you lose sleep over it, dont 

Im sure value will go up this year. How much, dunno.

But i'v got orders out for a few units around and im sure they'll make ROI at some point (i got free power, so that helps).

[frankenmint]

After finding this nifty site: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/  and checking out lots of ASICS, it looks if you buy now, wait for delivery, nothing will make it's ROI.

Of course I subscribe to the idea that you are better off just buying the Bitcoins now versus investing into an ASIC. However, I already have Bitcoins (bought long, long, long ago) and I'm relatively Fiat Broke, so if I were to go an ASIC route, I would be spending Bitcoins anyway. I have held off till now because it seems like it's a smarter idea to wait for when ASICS can be purchased and delivered via 2 day shipping. Meaning, I can pretty much know what the difficulty will be when I receive my machine. At this point, even the conservative estimates make it look like top of the line miners won't arrive in time to pay for themselves.

What are others thinking?

when i started to use that calculator it was giving me positive ROI figures scoped out from october onward, now its been adjusted...as more entrants are expected to enter into the bitcoin arena and offer hashing....difficulty will continue to rise against the fixed bitcoin 'pie' Like the guy above said - mine with it until april 2014 then switchover to alt-coins or if btc jumps up a lot in price like over 500 bucks then continue to mine btc for a few more months.  If others also follow and decide to switch over to alts, that will stabilize difficulty I believe.

[hromobiti]

We wont see 20%+ rise in difficulty forever. It has to slow down and stop sometimes. I predict because of preorders, we will see difficulty drop a bit next year, because some with expensive electricity realise how much they pay more to mine a coin

So if you have cheap or free electricity you can make +ROI

[DeathAndTaxes]

We wont see 20%+ rise in difficulty forever. It has to slow down and stop sometimes. I predict because of preorders, we will see difficulty drop a bit next year, because some with expensive electricity realise how much they pay more to mine a coin

So if you have cheap or free electricity you can make +ROI

Difficulty is not going down.  If someone has expensive electricity their rig is worth more selling it used to someone with cheap electricity then going idle.  Unlike with GPU where rigs could leave the system by people selling GPU on ebay to non miners, ASIC rigs only have one purpose.  So an Avalon isn't going dark until it is no longer break even profitable for even the miners with the cheapest of cheap electricity that is massively higher hashrate.

[crazy_rabbit]

We wont see 20%+ rise in difficulty forever. It has to slow down and stop sometimes. I predict because of preorders, we will see difficulty drop a bit next year, because some with expensive electricity realise how much they pay more to mine a coin

So if you have cheap or free electricity you can make +ROI

I'm not so sure about that. As long as Bitcoin goes up in value, ASICS are money printing machines. Big miners must always constantly reinvest to make profits (selling older machines used to hobbyiests- or kids in the basement w/ free power) So there will always be demand, and INCENTIVE to massively boost your hashrate. Now we see people putting a million or two dollars into mining, next year we might see people putting tens of millions into it, a few years after that maybe hundreds of millions. If bitcoin takes off, getting a slice of that transaction fee pie is gonna be equivalent to levying a tax and I wouldn't be surprised to see even governments getting involved in that, especially if there are still a few coins to be mined.

I wouldn't be surprised if we DO keep growing at 20% for a long time yet.

[Soros Shorts]

The time to make quick ROI is certainly over.

However, the rate of difficulty increase will eventually slow down, though nobody really knows when. When that happens, it may be possible to continue cover the electric costs of ASIC mining and eke out modest earnings month after month for quite some time. Depending on price paid, efficiency and electric costs, you might just be able to recover the cost of the ASIC hardware and continue to make small profits mining beyond the break even point.

At least, that was what happened with GPUs. A few months of insane profits in early 2011, followed by almost 2 years of small profits.

[Operatr]

It is tough at the moment as BTC market price has not risen quick enough to offset the dramatic rise in network hashpower.

Though the ASIC market is quickly being saturated by competition, which will help drive hardware prices down at least. Hopefully Bitcoin will rally again soon, and all will be well. And at some point ASICs will reach a market saturation point which will be marked by the power curve flattening out a bit, though it doesn't seem it will for some time yet as all of this new ASIC hardware ships out over the next few months.

Mining is in a state of extreme flux at the moment and in the middle of a technical revolution to 4th gen hardware, which means it will just have to be messy and uncertain for now. Though long term, I suspect the playing field will level itself out in time.

It is possible to ROI in a decent time frame with enough starting capital, but those looking to mine professionally need to understand once they take the plunge they are in for the long haul now.

[derr777]

I see power costs talked about, but has anyone done the math?  Most of these ASICs take so little power that the power portion is almost nothing.  Free power doesn't really matter when you're talking about pennies on every gigahash.

I, for one, do not think the difficulty will stop adjusting at this rate for a long time.  I also do not think the price of a BTC will trend upward.  I think the days of making any more than a small amount on any less than a very large investment, are coming to an end, if not over already.

[crazy_rabbit]

Most of these ASICs take so little power that the power portion is almost nothing.

Thats only for hobby miners who don't care about their electricity bill or don't pay it. If you're working seriously in mining, you have to factor in power costs. It's not 'almost nothing'.

[bcp19]

After finding this nifty site: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/  and checking out lots of ASICS, it looks if you buy now, wait for delivery, nothing will make it's ROI.

Of course I subscribe to the idea that you are better off just buying the Bitcoins now versus investing into an ASIC. However, I already have Bitcoins (bought long, long, long ago) and I'm relatively Fiat Broke, so if I were to go an ASIC route, I would be spending Bitcoins anyway. I have held off till now because it seems like it's a smarter idea to wait for when ASICS can be purchased and delivered via 2 day shipping. Meaning, I can pretty much know what the difficulty will be when I receive my machine. At this point, even the conservative estimates make it look like top of the line miners won't arrive in time to pay for themselves.

What are others thinking?

Depends on which crowd you're hanging with.  The "I paid BTC to mine BTC" will never get their BTC investment back on well over 75% of items ordered and not received at this point in time with the other 25% looking shakier by the day and never on the current in-stock USB ripoffs.  The people who understand BTC = USD and varies with time will understand that yes, with patience they will eventually have a positive RoI in USD spent vs USD received.  Now, the people from the former group I just mentioned will argue that you should just BUY BTC and sit on it.  That's all well and good for the 10% or so of the populace with the wherewithal to atually do that, but I doubt the majority could handle it.

[Syke]

Thats only for hobby miners who don't care about their electricity bill or don't pay it. If you're working seriously in mining, you have to factor in power costs. It's not 'almost nothing'.

Someday that will be a factor, but not for a while.

Let's look at the power hungry Avalon.

80 GH/s, 65M difficulty = $74/day income
700 watts, $.15/kwh = $2.5/day expense

Electricity costs 3% of the income. That's pretty low.

Or how about the Bitfury that is now shipping.

360 GH/s, 65M difficulty = $330/day income
250 watts, $.15/kwh = $1/day expense

Bitfury has 10 times the efficiency of the Avalon. .3% of the income goes to electricity. That really is 'almost nothing'.

[Syke]

The "I paid BTC to mine BTC" will never get their BTC investment back on well over 75% of items ordered and not received at this point in time with the other 25% looking shakier by the day and never on the current in-stock USB ripoffs.  The people who understand BTC = USD and varies with time will understand that yes, with patience they will eventually have a positive RoI in USD spent vs USD received.

Then why bother mining? Just buy BTC and you'll make a better profit holding it than mining. Considering exchange rates is just a way to hide from the actual negative ROI.

Paying $1000 (10btc @ $100) to mine $1500 (7.5btc @ $200) is a bad deal. You have a false $500 profit.

Let's look at buying BTC instead: Buy 10btc @ $100, wait till the exchange rate goes to $200, you now have $2000. You have a true $1000 profit.

The only positive ROI for a miner is more BTC generated than it cost to purchase it. Apples to apples. BTC in vs BTC out.

[bobsag3]

The "I paid BTC to mine BTC" will never get their BTC investment back on well over 75% of items ordered and not received at this point in time with the other 25% looking shakier by the day and never on the current in-stock USB ripoffs.  The people who understand BTC = USD and varies with time will understand that yes, with patience they will eventually have a positive RoI in USD spent vs USD received.

Then why bother mining? Just buy BTC and you'll make a better profit holding it than mining. Considering exchange rates is just a way to hide from the actual negative ROI.

Paying $1000 (10btc @ $100) to mine $1500 (7.5btc @ $200) is a bad deal. You have a false $500 profit.

Let's look at buying BTC instead: Buy 10btc @ $100, wait till the exchange rate goes to $200, you now have $2000. You have a true $1000 profit.

The only positive ROI for a miner is more BTC generated than it cost to purchase it. Apples to apples. BTC in vs BTC out.

Its is much much easier, at least for me to buy mining hardware with USD to get BTC, than it is for me to just purchase BTC. Plus mining is fun for a tinkerer like me.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Thats only for hobby miners who don't care about their electricity bill or don't pay it. If you're working seriously in mining, you have to factor in power costs. It's not 'almost nothing'.

Someday that will be a factor, but not for a while.

Let's look at the power hungry Avalon.

80 GH/s, 65M difficulty = $74/day income
700 watts, $.15/kwh = $2.5/day expense

Electricity costs 3% of the income. That's pretty low.

Or how about the Bitfury that is now shipping.

360 GH/s, 65M difficulty = $330/day income
250 watts, $.15/kwh = $1/day expense

Bitfury has 10 times the efficiency of the Avalon. .3% of the income goes to electricity. That really is 'almost nothing'.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "a while".   In the next 3 months your right power is a non-issue.  That is why ASICMiner/Avalon route was the superior one.  They beat BFL to market despite BFL soaking up massive amounts of cash obtained under false pretenses.


Still the hashrate is relatively low and will continue to grow rapidly in the near term.  5,000 TH/s by December isn't impossible.  At that point using your numbers the Avalon and Bitfury are spending 30% and 3% respectively on power.  For the same amount of hashpower the Bitfury is making 32% more net revenue.

As an extreme example at 6 PH/s (not unreasonable by very early 2014) a user in a high power area (say 30 cent per kWh) would need to spend >100% of gross revenue on power unless the exchange rate rises.  Now you may say nobody spending 30 cents per kWh should be mining and I agree but many people assumed these are ASICs, power won't matter.

So it all depends on how fast the network hashrate will grow.  However I agree for 2013 power isn't really that big of an issue even under the worst case scenario, but 2014 is a whole different story. The nominal numbers don't really matter.  Power was important for GPUs and in time the ASIC powered network will use just as much power as the GPU powered one did (normalized for exchange rate).  There is one critical difference though the difference in efficiency between the best and worst GPU rigs (excluding NVidia) is maybe 3x.  Right now among ASIC devices in the field it is already 8x and if Cointerra meets their estimate it will be more like 12x once they ship.  Normalized for process size Bitfury is the most efficient design, so if a Fury-28* shows linear improvement to efficiency it would be closer to 20x.  That is huge and because of that I would say power efficiency is MORE important for ASICs.

Electrical break even difficulty by device efficiency: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281279

* Fury-28 pretty catchy huh? If you like that name guys I wouldn't mind some chips as a gift.

[Syke]

Still the hashrate is relatively low and will continue to grow rapidly in the near term.  5,000 TH/s by December isn't impossible.  At that point using your numbers the Avalon and Bitfury are spending 30% and 10% respectively on power.  For the same amount of hashpower the Bitfury is making 28% more net revenue.  Actually I think your calculations are a little off, maybe you are looking at chip efficiency not  power at the wall. 

At 10x current difficulty, it would be 30% for Avalon, but still only 3% for Bitfury.

Meanwhile full sized miner is falling quite a bit short (10-20%) on hashrate, but the powerconsumption is.... 250W AT THE WALL.

320-360 GH/s @ 250 watts, AT THE WALL.

[LiteBit]

We'll see a continued trend of early purchasers getting their equipment first (say KnCMiner day 1, day 2 folks) mine it for 3-4 weeks or so to recoup purchase price, and then sell it for what they bought it for or close to get their "ROI". They'll join the trend of Avalon owners and BFL owners who know they can make money faster selling it rather than waiting for coins that will never be dug up by them.

"ASIC in hand" demands a higher price and faster delivery in all the free market spots you look for Bitcoin miners.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Depends on which crowd you're hanging with.  The "I paid BTC to mine BTC" will never get their BTC investment back on well over 75% of items ordered and not received at this point in time with the other 25% looking shakier by the day and never on the current in-stock USB ripoffs.  The people who understand BTC = USD and varies with time will understand that yes, with patience they will eventually have a positive RoI in USD spent vs USD received.  Now, the people from the former group I just mentioned will argue that you should just BUY BTC and sit on it.  That's all well and good for the 10% or so of the populace with the wherewithal to atually do that, but I doubt the majority could handle it.

Put it in a paper wallet, locked in a safety deposit box.  If you can buy (or just keep) 100 BTC or buy a miner which will only produce 50 BTC.  It is a pretty heavy "stupid tax" to say "I might spend my BTC so it is better to mine and lose half the BTC guaranteed but maybe the half I don't lose might go up 200% so I can profit". 

If someone has that little willpower well they likely will spend/sell their BTC as they mine it and thus some increased exchange rate won't help.  While mining a rising exchange rate won't help your margins over an extended period of time.  When the exchange rate rises the ROI% rises so more hashing power is deployed. 

The only way the "I hope the exchange rate goes up" miner could benefit (even in the bogus USD metric) is by mining and holding the BTC.  If the miner can mine and hold BTC why can't he just buy and hold BTC?

There is no rational explanation for measuring a device which produces BTC in any unit other than BTC.  If a miner doesn't produce a net revenue (after electrical cost) in BTC which is greater than the purchase price in BTC then the mining was a loss.  Anyone can simply buy BTC instead.

[DeathAndTaxes]

At 10x current difficulty, it would be 30% for Avalon, but still only 3% for Bitfury.

Fixed.