Is it still worth getting a 5 GH/s Bitcoin Miner BFL?

[bcp19]

It'll work forever, you just won't make back your investment that's all.

I don't understand that, it will keep making coins forever.. but I wont get my investment back?

You have to understand their views on your investment.  It's not currently possible, but let's say you spend the $274 to buy that miner today and can get it today.  To the majority that post in here this means you just invested ~2.3 BTC in a product that will never earn ~2.3 BTC over it's lifetime.  By this definition their suggestion is to simply buy BTC and not mess around with miners as you will have more money in the end whenever you sell that ~2.3BTC.  If you insist on getting a miner though, be prepared to wait.  While BFL has plans to complete all pre-orders by the end of September, it's not looking likely, then they have all of the orders placed since April 5th to go through.  I doubt you would see an order placed today before Dec 1, but I could be wrong.

If, like most people, would are interested in how much money it can possibly generate, that is a complete unknown, as it is dependant on your share of the total netowrk, the ever-changing value of BTC and how badly you want to get the money from what you mined.  If you can view this as a long term investment, then you can earn more than you spent in USD.  You would be better off though buying BTC and holding it, if you have the patience.

[k9quaint]

It'll work forever, you just won't make back your investment that's all.

I don't understand that, it will keep making coins forever.. but I wont get my investment back?

Think of it just like a gold mine. First you want to make sure there is more gold in the mine than what you paid. If the price of gold is $1400 an ounce, and you paid $140,000 for the mine, it had better produce at least 100 ounces of gold. So you retain a geologist to estimate how many ounces of gold are in the mine. If it is less than 100 ounces then you should not buy the mine. Now you can keep digging, but after you mine out the rich veins (low difficulty) you will get less and less out of a days work. After a while, it will cost you more to dig than you get back from selling any gold you manage to find.

Some people might say "but gold will rise in price and you will make money that way!". If that were true, then you should just buy gold. That way you don't have to bother digging for it, you know exactly how much you will have, and you will pay a cheaper price for it than overpaying for a gold mine.

[Keyser Soze]

You have to understand their views on your investment.  It's not currently possible, but let's say you spend the $274 to buy that miner today and can get it today.  To the majority that post in here this means you just invested ~2.3 BTC in a product that will never earn ~2.3 BTC over it's lifetime.  By this definition their suggestion is to simply buy BTC and not mess around with miners as you will have more money in the end whenever you sell that ~2.3BTC.  If you insist on getting a miner though, be prepared to wait.  While BFL has plans to complete all pre-orders by the end of September, it's not looking likely, then they have all of the orders placed since April 5th to go through.  I doubt you would see an order placed today before Dec 1, but I could be wrong.

If, like most people, would are interested in how much money it can possibly generate, that is a complete unknown, as it is dependant on your share of the total netowrk, the ever-changing value of BTC and how badly you want to get the money from what you mined.  If you can view this as a long term investment, then you can earn more than you spent in USD.  You would be better off though buying BTC and holding it, if you have the patience.

Denominating all mining income and expenses when they occur in bitcoin allows you to determine the profit from mining activities. If you think of profit in fiat then you will also be factoring in the exchange rate. If you produce less bitcoins (in the life of the miner) then the miner cost (in bitcoins), then mining activities has created a loss (simplistic statement that does not factor in operating costs or discounting cash flow). You may have a profit in fiat, but that would only due to bitcoins appreciating vs. fiat.

[bcp19]

It'll work forever, you just won't make back your investment that's all.

I don't understand that, it will keep making coins forever.. but I wont get my investment back?

Think of it just like a gold mine. First you want to make sure there is more gold in the mine than what you paid. If the price of gold is $1400 an ounce, and you paid $140,000 for the mine, it had better produce at least 100 ounces of gold. So you retain a geologist to estimate how many ounces of gold are in the mine. If it is less than 100 ounces then you should not buy the mine. Now you can keep digging, but after you mine out the rich veins (low difficulty) you will get less and less out of a days work. After a while, it will cost you more to dig than you get back from selling any gold you manage to find.

Some people might say "but gold will rise in price and you will make money that way!". If that were true, then you should just buy gold. That way you don't have to bother digging for it, you know exactly how much you will have, and you will pay a cheaper price for it than overpaying for a gold mine.

Many years back, the gold companies knew they could use leeching techniques to extract minute quantities of gold from huge piles of dirt.  Back then it was abandoned as too expensive.  Now that the value of gold has gone up, they are starting to use these techniques to get that gold.  Through inflation, it now cost more to leech that gold than it would have when they refused to do it, yet the added value makes it worthwhile.  The major mining concerns care about fiat, it's only certain individuals who care about holding the gold, mainly due to the amount needed to invest.

The gold will get mined sooner or later, it just depends on the cost vs the reward in Fiat.  The same is true of BTC.  Few people are able to buy and hold when compared to all of the people mining.  The paying BTC to mine more BTC only works for certain individuals.  To repeat what has been said to me... You can lead a horse to water.......

[Keyser Soze]

Many years back, the gold companies knew they could use leeching techniques to extract minute quantities of gold from huge piles of dirt.  Back then it was abandoned as too expensive.  Now that the value of gold has gone up, they are starting to use these techniques to get that gold.  Through inflation, it now cost more to leech that gold than it would have when they refused to do it, yet the added value makes it worthwhile.  The major mining concerns care about fiat, it's only certain individuals who care about holding the gold, mainly due to the amount needed to invest.

The gold will get mined sooner or later, it just depends on the cost vs the reward in Fiat.  The same is true of BTC.  Few people are able to buy and hold when compared to all of the people mining.  The paying BTC to mine more BTC only works for certain individuals.  To repeat what has been said to me... You can lead a horse to water.......

I am not sure I completely understand your analogy.

Through inflation, it now cost more to leech that gold than it would have when they refused to do it...

Ok, so the cost to leech (mine) the gold has increased due to inflation.

...yet the added value makes it worthwhile.

If your operation produces less then the amount of gold you could have bought with your initial capital, then your capital would be better used else where. You do not know what the price will be when you are able to sell your gold.

As a gold producing operation, you should be concerned with the profit or loss from operations and not speculating on the price of gold. Significant price changes could have a tragic effect on the future cash flow. To prevent speculation, the company could lock in the price of gold with derivatives.

Few people are able to buy and hold when compared to all of the people mining.  The paying BTC to mine more BTC only works for certain individuals.

So people should turn their current capital(bitcoin, fiat, ect.) into a cash flow that pays out less then their starting capital? I cannot see how this is a good strategy. I'll tell you what, if you or anyone else wants to they can pay me 150 of any currency and I will pay them 10 per month for the next 12 months, fully escrowed, of the same currency.

[k9quaint]

It'll work forever, you just won't make back your investment that's all.

I don't understand that, it will keep making coins forever.. but I wont get my investment back?

Think of it just like a gold mine. First you want to make sure there is more gold in the mine than what you paid. If the price of gold is $1400 an ounce, and you paid $140,000 for the mine, it had better produce at least 100 ounces of gold. So you retain a geologist to estimate how many ounces of gold are in the mine. If it is less than 100 ounces then you should not buy the mine. Now you can keep digging, but after you mine out the rich veins (low difficulty) you will get less and less out of a days work. After a while, it will cost you more to dig than you get back from selling any gold you manage to find.

Some people might say "but gold will rise in price and you will make money that way!". If that were true, then you should just buy gold. That way you don't have to bother digging for it, you know exactly how much you will have, and you will pay a cheaper price for it than overpaying for a gold mine.

Many years back, the gold companies knew they could use leeching techniques to extract minute quantities of gold from huge piles of dirt.  Back then it was abandoned as too expensive. 

That is right, they abandoned leeching gold it because it was not profitable. That was the correct decision at that point in time, even though later gold rose enough in price to make it profitable again. The reason they stopped doing it is because the people in charge of mining companies took courses in history: In 1845 aluminum was more expensive per pound than both gold and platinum. A bar of it was even displayed at the Paris Exhibition in 1855. This was because it was very expensive to separate out into a pure metal. In 1886 however, a new process for separating aluminum metal was discovered (we use the same process today) and now aluminum is $0.82 per pound. If anyone had invested in the old method of producing aluminum they would have lost their shirts.

The gold is still there and technically the mining company still owns it. They can extract it whenever they want to, and they do whenever it is profitable to do so.

Setting up a business that depends on a commodity rising in value in order to profit is just gambling.

[wearepoor]

Not if you are thinking you will make a profit. But it may be worth it for the fun of knowing you are part of the bitcoin experiment, and the hard lesson you will get about exponentially rising difficulty.

You may get satisfaction knowing you are helping secure the bitcoin network.

[LittleD]

It'll work forever, you just won't make back your investment that's all.

I don't understand that, it will keep making coins forever.. but I wont get my investment back?

You have to understand their views on your investment.  It's not currently possible, but let's say you spend the $274 to buy that miner today and can get it today.  To the majority that post in here this means you just invested ~2.3 BTC in a product that will never earn ~2.3 BTC over it's lifetime.  By this definition their suggestion is to simply buy BTC and not mess around with miners as you will have more money in the end whenever you sell that ~2.3BTC.  If you insist on getting a miner though, be prepared to wait.  While BFL has plans to complete all pre-orders by the end of September, it's not looking likely, then they have all of the orders placed since April 5th to go through.  I doubt you would see an order placed today before Dec 1, but I could be wrong.

If, like most people, would are interested in how much money it can possibly generate, that is a complete unknown, as it is dependant on your share of the total netowrk, the ever-changing value of BTC and how badly you want to get the money from what you mined.  If you can view this as a long term investment, then you can earn more than you spent in USD.  You would be better off though buying BTC and holding it, if you have the patience.

AAaaaaaaaaaaaamen!  

[Dorrace]

I bought a jally in April it's going to be more of a novelty by the time I get it in the next 1-2 months judging by current shipping rate

[rpg]

I received my 2 Jalapeños today, one with the "2ghps upgrade".  I ordered 03-Feb-2013.

I doubt they'll ever break-even BTC-wise.

http://imgur.com/a/yWMMw

Looks like I'm in for a lot more waiting before I'll see my Little Single.

Edit: I paid 15.0912 BTC for the initial order, and then 0.8198 BTC for the upgrade.

I'm directing all mining proceeds from them to 1Mkew9NDU9S4XS7QPDrHrgzjRDp4bHGXgw.  You all can follow along and see when/if I break even.

i think you all miss a point, Jalo's are for fun. I'm still waiting on mine, probably will receive it in the next couple of weeks, and I'm not even worried about making a profit. It will run on 30 watts = $.11/day. It consumes about the same as your cable box that you have turned on 24x7.

[bcp19]

Many years back, the gold companies knew they could use leeching techniques to extract minute quantities of gold from huge piles of dirt.  Back then it was abandoned as too expensive.  Now that the value of gold has gone up, they are starting to use these techniques to get that gold.  Through inflation, it now cost more to leech that gold than it would have when they refused to do it, yet the added value makes it worthwhile.  The major mining concerns care about fiat, it's only certain individuals who care about holding the gold, mainly due to the amount needed to invest.

The gold will get mined sooner or later, it just depends on the cost vs the reward in Fiat.  The same is true of BTC.  Few people are able to buy and hold when compared to all of the people mining.  The paying BTC to mine more BTC only works for certain individuals.  To repeat what has been said to me... You can lead a horse to water.......

I am not sure I completely understand your analogy.

You guys spout the "buy BTC instead of buying equipment" jingle over and over, yet the people(horses) reading you won't take heed (drink) just cause it is the proper thing to do.

Buying the mining equipment does 2 things, it gives you a tangible asset that you can see working on your pool charts and it gives you a non-liquid asset.  BTC can be spent on a whim, a sudden drop in value can cause panic selling and a quick rise can cause profit-taking or a buy-in hoping it will rise higher.  Last April, how many people happily sold at $50 only to buy back in at $100 or $150 or $200?  How few actually were actually able to sell at $250?  Fiat is something tangible people can understand well.  BTC is like play money.  I can remember trips to Hong Kong (where their unit is also dollars), but it was around $8HK to $1US.  I saw people who would never consider spending $100US on something tossing out $800HK like it was a ten or twenty.  They viewed it as play money and got burnt.

That is the perception of a lot of miners... BTC is just a medium to get fiat.  Without the necessary discipline to put it away and ignore it, all the advice in the world matters not.

[Keyser Soze]

You guys spout the "buy BTC instead of buying equipment" jingle over and over, yet the people(horses) reading you won't take heed (drink) just cause it is the proper thing to do.

Buying the mining equipment does 2 things, it gives you a tangible asset that you can see working on your pool charts and it gives you a non-liquid asset.  BTC can be spent on a whim, a sudden drop in value can cause panic selling and a quick rise can cause profit-taking or a buy-in hoping it will rise higher.  Last April, how many people happily sold at $50 only to buy back in at $100 or $150 or $200?  How few actually were actually able to sell at $250?  Fiat is something tangible people can understand well.  BTC is like play money.  I can remember trips to Hong Kong (where their unit is also dollars), but it was around $8HK to $1US.  I saw people who would never consider spending $100US on something tossing out $800HK like it was a ten or twenty.  They viewed it as play money and got burnt.

That is the perception of a lot of miners... BTC is just a medium to get fiat.  Without the necessary discipline to put it away and ignore it, all the advice in the world matters not.

I have never said "buy BTC instead of buying equipment", that was never my argument. I am sure we can agree that people are not always rational and do not always make the best choices.

There are various reasons why people may mine at a loss, but those reasons should not take precedent if your goal is profit. If your main goal is to make a profit mining then your estimated bitcoins earned better be greater then what your mining equipment cost (in bitcoin). Of course you will also want to factor in operating expenses, time value of money, ect.

If miners estimate they will take a loss from mining operations and still buy the equipment, then profit is not their primary goal or they are not acting rationally. Just because it may be the perception of many miners does not mean it is a wise decision.

[BTCscraper]

Going back to the OP, there's no harm in buying a 5 gh/s device today, as long as you pay using Paypal and believe that you can still reach ROI with the increasing difficulty and uptrending BTC price.  BFL has already stated in an August 30 email that they're "expecting to be caught up by the end of September," and the Jalapeno / 5gh/s device is currently the fastest progressing device in their product line.  Since Paypal has a 45-day protection period, you can have the transaction reversed in the first or second week of October if your order has not shipped by then.

[Dorrace]

Going back to the OP, there's no harm in buying a 5 gh/s device today, as long as you pay using Paypal and believe that you can still reach ROI with the increasing difficulty and uptrending BTC price.  BFL has already stated in an August 30 email that they're "expecting to be caught up by the end of September," and the Jalapeno / 5gh/s device is currently the fastest progressing device in their product line.  Since Paypal has a 45-day protection period, you can have the transaction reversed in the first or second week of October if your order has not shipped by then.

You should be calculating your results at no less then 650,000,000 if you still see a good profit at that much difficulty by and are happy with it then go for it. I calculate my difficulty 10x the current, because that's the reality by the time you receive it. I ordered when difficulty was 7,500,000....... It's gone up 9x

[bcp19]

You guys spout the "buy BTC instead of buying equipment" jingle over and over, yet the people(horses) reading you won't take heed (drink) just cause it is the proper thing to do.

Buying the mining equipment does 2 things, it gives you a tangible asset that you can see working on your pool charts and it gives you a non-liquid asset.  BTC can be spent on a whim, a sudden drop in value can cause panic selling and a quick rise can cause profit-taking or a buy-in hoping it will rise higher.  Last April, how many people happily sold at $50 only to buy back in at $100 or $150 or $200?  How few actually were actually able to sell at $250?  Fiat is something tangible people can understand well.  BTC is like play money.  I can remember trips to Hong Kong (where their unit is also dollars), but it was around $8HK to $1US.  I saw people who would never consider spending $100US on something tossing out $800HK like it was a ten or twenty.  They viewed it as play money and got burnt.

That is the perception of a lot of miners... BTC is just a medium to get fiat.  Without the necessary discipline to put it away and ignore it, all the advice in the world matters not.

I have never said "buy BTC instead of buying equipment", that was never my argument. I am sure we can agree that people are not always rational and do not always make the best choices.

There are various reasons why people may mine at a loss, but those reasons should not take precedent if your goal is profit. If your main goal is to make a profit mining then your estimated bitcoins earned better be greater then what your mining equipment cost (in bitcoin). Of course you will also want to factor in operating expenses, time value of money, ect.

If miners estimate they will take a loss from mining operations and still buy the equipment, then profit is not their primary goal or they are not acting rationally. Just because it may be the perception of many miners does not mean it is a wise decision.

Ah, no, you did not... "If you produce less bitcoins (in the life of the miner) then the miner cost (in bitcoins), then mining activities has created a loss " <-- Most of the time when people start using this argument, they also say that it would be better to spend that money on BTC and save it than purchacing the mining equipment as you'd have more money in the long run.  That is why I used the horse and water analogy... if a person can buy and wait they should and would be ahead, but not everyone can.

[vpereira]

True, but overpriced, and with all the additional difficulties that come with eBay items.

which "additional difficulties" come with ebay that you don't have with BFL? I bought one overpriced, true, but well It is up and running. You can pre-order it cheap and don't receive it or receive it in.. january

[Keyser Soze]

Ah, no, you did not... "If you produce less bitcoins (in the life of the miner) then the miner cost (in bitcoins), then mining activities has created a loss " <-- Most of the time when people start using this argument, they also say that it would be better to spend that money on BTC and save it than purchacing the mining equipment as you'd have more money in the long run.  That is why I used the horse and water analogy... if a person can buy and wait they should and would be ahead, but not everyone can.

People mining for profit should do their best to separate profits/losses from mining activities and profits/losses from speculation.

If anyone is trying to determine if they should start a mining operation (for profit) or speculate on the price of bitcoins(for profit), they should do their own research and come up with their own conclusions. Random people on some forum may not be giving the best advice. 

[vpereira]

Ah, no, you did not... "If you produce less bitcoins (in the life of the miner) then the miner cost (in bitcoins), then mining activities has created a loss " <-- Most of the time when people start using this argument, they also say that it would be better to spend that money on BTC and save it than purchacing the mining equipment as you'd have more money in the long run.  That is why I used the horse and water analogy... if a person can buy and wait they should and would be ahead, but not everyone can.

People mining for profit should do their best to separate profits/losses from mining activities and profits/losses from speculation.

If anyone is trying to determine if they should start a mining operation (for profit) or speculate on the price of bitcoins(for profit), they should do their own research and come up with their own conclusions. Random people on some forum may not be giving the best advice. 

well said... from the miner point of view, to recommend people to buy coins makes sense: one less miner to fight against and one (or more) transaction(s) to be mined.

[Dorrace]

Ah, no, you did not... "If you produce less bitcoins (in the life of the miner) then the miner cost (in bitcoins), then mining activities has created a loss " <-- Most of the time when people start using this argument, they also say that it would be better to spend that money on BTC and save it than purchacing the mining equipment as you'd have more money in the long run.  That is why I used the horse and water analogy... if a person can buy and wait they should and would be ahead, but not everyone can.

People mining for profit should do their best to separate profits/losses from mining activities and profits/losses from speculation.

If anyone is trying to determine if they should start a mining operation (for profit) or speculate on the price of bitcoins(for profit), they should do their own research and come up with their own conclusions. Random people on some forum may not be giving the best advice. 

well said... from the miner point of view, to recommend people to buy coins makes sense: one less miner to fight against and one (or more) transaction(s) to be mined.

yes exactly. accordıng to my calculatıon you can stıll make a profıt for the next 12 months on a 600gh monarch. but agaın that all comes down to the tıme you wıll receıve ıt. ım actually lookıng ebay these days to fınd a rıg over 100gh yeah ıt mıght be twıce the prıce but ı would stıll buy ıt my only concern ıs that ıts fucked out. why else would you sell a rıg that stıll ıs capable of mınıng unless youre really desperate for cash ın whıch case you shouldnt be mınıng ın the fırst place

[tacoman71]

*Sigh* All this reminds me of my stupid mistake of not ordering a batch 1 Avalon Now I'm stuck waiting for my stupid Jally which I will never profit from.