Profitability of the new bfl monarchs (600ghs)

[Dorrace]

I know that feel I ordered a jally in early April knowing there were delays of at least 4-6 months but I took my chances, 5 months later the order is still processing but it will still make about 0.013 coin a day or so for a few months I guess it's more of a novelty now but I jumped on the train way too late. I am considering buying a monarch for something like 5,000aud after converting from usd. If they can legitimately deliver by late February I will still be happy it doesn't have to make a big profit. But it's more for keeping onto for the long term kind of as a mantelpiece , show off to the ladies when I bring them over for a drink.

I'm betting the difficulty will rocket up again in December-January if they actually deliver the monarchs then. Just assuming there's about 1000-2000 in that batch (this would be very small in comparison to previous batches) network hash rate will jump up by around 1,000,000 gh/s difficulty will go up 1000% and there will e no profit even for the monarchs they will kind of just negate themselves out in a way. Like trying to shove a bunch of pencils through a small drain pipe. Or a bunch or crayons in your mouth. You have room for a couple before it becomes pointless shoving crayons in your mouth. The reality is bitcoin mining is going to implode soon , that is why buying a monarch is good and bad at the same time because one day difficulty is going to go down because bitcoin is going to be thrown into chaos by the difficulty rate and thereof the lack of processing power for the block chain. Either satoshi will adjust the mining to be more feasible (not just the transaction fees) but perhaps once more reduce the block size this will in turn push up value of coin due to low supply . And people will all get down and do the dinosaur.

[Unacceptable]

Personally..........save your money.Thier track record of delivery on time is a joke.BFL MAY get these out by June or later,IMHO 

Keep watching,there are a few folks bringing product to the table,on time supposedly 

Right now ? Bitfury.In 1-2 months KnC,maybe................

[superduh]

-125% profitability. you are better off using half the money to just buy up coins off someone

[Syke]

If they can legitimately deliver by late February

They can't.

[Serge]

if you're not one of first in line for any next gen mining rigs in pre-order - just forget it..  just get BTC for the money, chances are you'll have a big smile in a year or two instead of getting few gray hairs while waiting, going through manufacturer delays and seeing how quickly new mighty rig becomes worthless.

edit:  if cointerra and hashfast comeout around the same time as monarchs or before... you know..  multiply current difficulty at least by 1000-10000

[Dorrace]

Yeah we'll when I calculate mining profits I run off a billion difficulty instead of 65,000,000 or 250,000,000 like some people and its still somewhat profitable , I would have definitely bought on the first batch but this is for the second batch. I mean I could buy the bitcoins but where is the fun in that? I already invest in silver bullion.

But I suppose if the price of bitcoin jumps to $500 a coin like some speculate , that is a 5x profit almost.

Instead is spending 5,000 on a monarch I buy something like 45 bitcoin , if the price goes up to 500 it becomes $22,500 which is pretty nifty but it just isn't fun . At a billion difficulty a monarch will produce around the same at current price over the course of a year.


Bitcoin is going to have a blow out before it finally hits big , I'm just buying on that. The price and difficulty will drop for about a year or two. People won't mine as much .

[Takeshi_Kovacs]

Yeah we'll when I calculate mining profits I run off a billion difficulty instead of 65,000,000 or 250,000,000 like some people and its still somewhat profitable ,

Really? What rate of difficulty increase do you plug in to your calculation? There is enough equipment on pre-order to keep the difficulty going up until the middle of next year.

If you take that into account, the first person to receive a Monarch in the new year will be lucky if their total return from the machine is 25% of the purchase price and that is if they have free electricity.

[Dorrace]

Yeah we'll when I calculate mining profits I run off a billion difficulty instead of 65,000,000 or 250,000,000 like some people and its still somewhat profitable ,

Really? What rate of difficulty increase do you plug in to your calculation? There is enough equipment on pre-order to keep the difficulty going up until the middle of next year.

If you take that into account, the first person to receive a Monarch in the new year will be lucky if their total return from the machine is 25% of the purchase price and that is if they have free electricity.

here ıs a claculatıon at 950,000,000 dıffıculty wıth a profıtabılıty declıne of 59% per year over 2 years. at current bıt coın exchange rate (though youd expect ıt to rıse, though you cannot base calculatıons on a hıgher exchange rate) wıth a rounded up 5,000 dollars for the monarch and electrıcıty at 0.55kwh at worst case scenarıo. 



40 bucks a day ıs stıll a good profıt ın my books. yeah ıt wıll take 5 months to break even on ıt but ı stıll belıeve ıts somethıng worth havıng. ıts lıke a car ı spend lıke 200 bucks atleast a week on my car ıts a fuckıng leech to my pocket but ı sure as hell would be worse off wıthout ıt . ı paıd 5k for ıt and ı pay 10k a year just to keep the fucker ınsured, fueled up and for regıstratıon. wıthout ıt ı cant work my job because ım a tradesman ı need to get around to make my money. but sure my return ıs a hell of a lot more then thıs thıng ı make 200 bucks a day at work ım not fussed about makıng a huge profıt from mınıng. but wıthout the ıncentıve of a possıble profıt to me there ıs no poınt buyıng the thıng.

what else do you guys thınk? ı just really want to know how everyone says there wıll be no profıt from buyıng thıs thıng? are they just tryıng to scare people out of buyıng the new asıcs to reduce dıffıculty 

[digitalindustry]

I'd buy it !

they are an upstanding company !

get your order in early , if you think about it too long you will miss your chance !

[Dorrace]

I'd buy it !

they are an upstanding company !

get your order in early , if you think about it too long you will miss your chance !

CANT ım overseas all my bankıng shıt ıs at home. plus ı have about 5k ın debt to pay hahaha

[Takeshi_Kovacs]

Yeah we'll when I calculate mining profits I run off a billion difficulty instead of 65,000,000 or 250,000,000 like some people and its still somewhat profitable ,

Really? What rate of difficulty increase do you plug in to your calculation? There is enough equipment on pre-order to keep the difficulty going up until the middle of next year.

If you take that into account, the first person to receive a Monarch in the new year will be lucky if their total return from the machine is 25% of the purchase price and that is if they have free electricity.

here ıs a claculatıon at 950,000,000 dıffıculty wıth a profıtabılıty declıne of 59% per year over 2 years. at current bıt coın exchange rate (though youd expect ıt to rıse, though you cannot base calculatıons on a hıgher exchange rate) wıth a rounded up 5,000 dollars for the monarch and electrıcıty at 0.55kwh at worst case scenarıo. 



40 bucks a day ıs stıll a good profıt ın my books. yeah ıt wıll take 5 months to break even on ıt but ı stıll belıeve ıts somethıng worth havıng. ıts lıke a car ı spend lıke 200 bucks atleast a week on my car ıts a fuckıng leech to my pocket but ı sure as hell would be worse off wıthout ıt . ı paıd 5k for ıt and ı pay 10k a year just to keep the fucker ınsured, fueled up and for regıstratıon. wıthout ıt ı cant work my job because ım a tradesman ı need to get around to make my money. but sure my return ıs a hell of a lot more then thıs thıng ı make 200 bucks a day at work ım not fussed about makıng a huge profıt from mınıng. but wıthout the ıncentıve of a possıble profıt to me there ıs no poınt buyıng the thıng.

what else do you guys thınk? ı just really want to know how everyone says there wıll be no profıt from buyıng thıs thıng? are they just tryıng to scare people out of buyıng the new asıcs to reduce dıffıculty 

On my planet, we are seeing a profitability decline of over 50% each month. We call our planet Earth and it has a blue sky. What color sky do you have on your planet?

[Dorrace]

Yeah we'll when I calculate mining profits I run off a billion difficulty instead of 65,000,000 or 250,000,000 like some people and its still somewhat profitable ,

Really? What rate of difficulty increase do you plug in to your calculation? There is enough equipment on pre-order to keep the difficulty going up until the middle of next year.

If you take that into account, the first person to receive a Monarch in the new year will be lucky if their total return from the machine is 25% of the purchase price and that is if they have free electricity.

here ıs a claculatıon at 950,000,000 dıffıculty wıth a profıtabılıty declıne of 59% per year over 2 years. at current bıt coın exchange rate (though youd expect ıt to rıse, though you cannot base calculatıons on a hıgher exchange rate) wıth a rounded up 5,000 dollars for the monarch and electrıcıty at 0.55kwh at worst case scenarıo. 



40 bucks a day ıs stıll a good profıt ın my books. yeah ıt wıll take 5 months to break even on ıt but ı stıll belıeve ıts somethıng worth havıng. ıts lıke a car ı spend lıke 200 bucks atleast a week on my car ıts a fuckıng leech to my pocket but ı sure as hell would be worse off wıthout ıt . ı paıd 5k for ıt and ı pay 10k a year just to keep the fucker ınsured, fueled up and for regıstratıon. wıthout ıt ı cant work my job because ım a tradesman ı need to get around to make my money. but sure my return ıs a hell of a lot more then thıs thıng ı make 200 bucks a day at work ım not fussed about makıng a huge profıt from mınıng. but wıthout the ıncentıve of a possıble profıt to me there ıs no poınt buyıng the thıng.

what else do you guys thınk? ı just really want to know how everyone says there wıll be no profıt from buyıng thıs thıng? are they just tryıng to scare people out of buyıng the new asıcs to reduce dıffıculty 

On my planet, we are seeing a profitability decline of over 50% each month. We call our planet Earth and it has a blue sky. What color sky do you have on your planet?

well then that gıves us 4 months untıl the dıffıculty ıs at 1bıl hahaha. but ıts only jumpıng now because everyone ıs shıppıng. ı thınk ıt wıll cap for a whıle untıl the 600s come out on the floors

[Syke]

well then that gıves us 4 months untıl the dıffıculty ıs at 1bıl hahaha.

Sounds about right. The next few months will easily see 100% difficulty increases.

* BitFury (up to 400 GH/s) systems are now shipping. New orders are $8,000 for Oct delivery.
* KNC is due to ship soon (up to 400 GH/s). New orders are $7,000 for Oct delivery.
* HashFast taped-out (400 GH/s). New order are $5,600 for Oct delivery.

BFL on the other hand misses every date promised. $4680 for 600 GH/s due some time after Feb is way too expensive.

[Dorrace]

well then that gıves us 4 months untıl the dıffıculty ıs at 1bıl hahaha.

Sounds about right. The next few months will easily see 100% difficulty increases.

* BitFury (up to 400 GH/s) systems are now shipping. New orders are $8,000 for Oct delivery.
* KNC is due to ship soon (up to 400 GH/s). New orders are $7,000 for Oct delivery.
* HashFast taped-out (400 GH/s). New order are $5,600 for Oct delivery.

BFL on the other hand misses every date promised. $4680 for 600 GH/s due some time after Feb is way too expensive.

You know 6-7 months ago I was contemplating gathering a bunch of old pcs and combining them all the graphic cards and all, second hand pcs. Whatever I could have for my hands on I worked out for $1,000 I could get close to 1ghs which seemed expensive compared to the $300 jally. Probably would have been better of doing that hahaha. Going to your local Internet cafe booking out all the pcs and mining? 30 pcs at $30 an hour for all of them? Lol

[dave111223]

I met a guy on the road yesterday offered some magic beans for my bitcoins.  When I put the beans into my profitability calculator it says they should grow up to the giants castle within 3-4 months and I'll probably be able to steal a golden goose (massive ROI!)

[jspielberg]

My projections of a 41M linear difficulty rise (not exponential!), starting on March 1st with a global hashrate for 20PH/s, the 600GH card will generate 12 BTC (and a few more in all of 2015).  I do assume it will be exponential until early Feb 2014, which brings us to 14PH/s at the beginning of Feb..

[Dorrace]

My projections of a 41M linear difficulty rise (not exponential!), starting on March 1st with a global hashrate for 20PH/s, the 600GH card will generate 12 BTC (and a few more in all of 2015).  I do assume it will be exponential until early Feb 2014, which brings us to 14PH/s at the beginning of Feb..

what dıd ı just read

[jspielberg]

My projections of a 41M linear difficulty rise (not exponential!), starting on March 1st with a global hashrate for 20PH/s, the 600GH card will generate 12 BTC (and a few more in all of 2015).  I do assume it will be exponential until early Feb 2014, which brings us to 14PH/s at the beginning of Feb..

what dıd ı just read

Maybe the spreadsheet is easier to see...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

The idea is that continuous exponential growth is ridiculous.  In like 3 years the solar system's resources are committed to bitcoin mining.  So... I made a spreadsheet that goes exponential for just the committed hashrates of the announced vendors which puts out about 14PH/s of global hashrate.  Using the current growth rate and mapping it to an exponential is suprisingly close.  Here is the wolfram alpha difficulty data mapped starting in Feb through the next projected retarget (which I undershot by a picking 85M):
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31256960%7D%2C%7B189%2C50810340%7D%2C%7B200%2C+65750060%7D%2C%7B210%2C85000000%7D%7D

I figure that rate will continue until all the pre-orders are shipped, which puts the global hash rate at 14PH/s in early Feb.  At that point I assume the growth rate will be linear not exponential (i.e. the growth between retargets will be constant rather than increasing... i.e. no longer accelerating in difficulty).  I basically thought that at that point, the rate would "coast" at that linear rate... rather than being pushed.  The curve flattens out with a slope equal to the "exit velocity" of the exponential portion... around 41Million daily difficulty rise.  We are currently at around 1.6M daily difficulty rise, so this linear phase I am "hoping" is only 25-ish times larger than what we are seeing today.

Anyway, if you use the spreadsheet I posted, with these assumptions, put in a delivery date of March, 1st (an optimistic BFL target date), 600 GH performance, and check out the cumulative BTC mining performance it comes out to 12 BTC in 2014, and 5BTC in 2015 (though projecting 2014 is fraught enough, 2015 is even more fantasy).

Obviously, this could (and most likely is) complete bullcrap... reality may not be anything like this projection. But modelling is fun, and it puts in high relief delays in delivery are going to shorten these miners shelf lives considerably.  Even the fancy 28nm ones.
Hope that helps.

Edit: some grammar/spelling changes.

[Dorrace]

My projections of a 41M linear difficulty rise (not exponential!), starting on March 1st with a global hashrate for 20PH/s, the 600GH card will generate 12 BTC (and a few more in all of 2015).  I do assume it will be exponential until early Feb 2014, which brings us to 14PH/s at the beginning of Feb..

what dıd ı just read

Maybe the spreadsheet is easier to see...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

The idea is that continuous exponential growth is ridiculous.  In like 3 years the solar system's resources are committed to bitcoin mining.  So... I made a spreadsheet that goes exponential for just the committed hashrates of the announced vendors which puts out about 14PH/s of global hashrate.  Using the current growth rate and mapping it to an exponential is suprisingly close.  Here is the wolfram alpha difficulty data mapped starting in Feb through the next projected retarget (which I undershot by a picking 85M):
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31256960%7D%2C%7B189%2C50810340%7D%2C%7B200%2C+65750060%7D%2C%7B210%2C85000000%7D%7D

I figure that rate will continue until all the pre-orders are shipped, which puts the global hash rate at 14PH/s in early Feb.  At that point I assume the growth rate will be linear not exponential (i.e. the growth between retargets will be constant rather than increasing... i.e. no longer accelerating in difficulty).  I basically thought that at that point, the rate would "coast" at that linear rate... rather than being pushed.  The curve flattens out with a slope equal to the "exit velocity" of the exponential portion... around 41Million daily difficulty rise.  We are currently at around 1.6M daily difficulty rise, so this linear phase I am "hoping" is only 25-ish times larger than what we are seeing today.

Anyway, if you use the spreadsheet I posted, with these assumptions, put in a delivery date of March, 1st (an optimistic BFL target date), 600 GH performance, and check out the cumulative BTC mining performance it comes out to 12 BTC in 2014, and 5BTC in 2015 (though projecting 2014 is fraught enough, 2015 is even more fantasy).

Obviously, this could (and most likely is) complete bullcrap... reality may not be anything like this projection. But modelling is fun, and it puts in high relief delays in delivery are going to shorten these miners shelf lives considerably.  Even the fancy 28nm ones.
Hope that helps.

Edit: some grammar/spelling changes.

my braın ısnt workıng well today. what the hell ıs a ph? ıs that supposed to be hıgher then a th

[bcp19]

my braın ısnt workıng well today. what the hell ıs a ph? ıs that supposed to be hıgher then a th

PH = Petahash.  1PH = 1,000TH = 1,000,000GH