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Author Topic: Why has the network jumper to 14 terahashes?  (Read 4878 times)
SlaveInDebt
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July 13, 2011, 07:54:34 PM
 #21

22 blocks in the last 2 hours blame JPMorgan

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July 13, 2011, 07:55:52 PM
 #22

http://hardforum.com/showthread.php?t=1622219 was posted today, by the look of the replies quite a few people there didn't know about bitcoins before. If any forum has the hardware to make an increase like that it would be them.
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July 13, 2011, 07:57:11 PM
 #23

 Grin

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July 13, 2011, 08:13:33 PM
 #24

I was wondering the same thing about the increase.  I thought it was finally stabilizing at 11 and then it seemingly jumped to 15 within an instant.  Things are about to get a whole lot more interesting...

I know there are people here who seem to think difficulty and BTC price are related...  Not being one of those people myself, I believe that we'll see a HUGE BTC SELLOFF once the next increase happens and people decide to cash out and run from their large scale costly and time consuming mining operations (the steady fall from 17 to 14 illustrates my theory that this has already been occuring since the last 2 difficulty increases).  I only hope the price rebounds once that happens.  I fear that for now the trend is down.  Hopefully some major news site drums up some more interest in bitcoin speculation to offset the declining factors so that us little guys can continue digging up bitcoins.

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mackminer
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July 13, 2011, 08:19:22 PM
 #25

I'm really pissed up my 8gh/s rig isn't going to be turned on till the weekend.

Is there not some way to find out where all these power is coming from? Is this from other or one of the pools?

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July 13, 2011, 08:20:18 PM
 #26

Nearly 16th now  Shocked

Will loads of small miners get out of the game and bring it down again? What percentage of the network would be small miners? ie. 1 to 1.5 gighash.

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July 13, 2011, 08:21:37 PM
 #27

Yeah it was me.  I got sick of trying to play Crysis 2 on high settings, so I went back to mining for Bitcoins.

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July 13, 2011, 09:56:07 PM
 #28

buncha reactionaries... geez. Even a picture posted in this very thread of the spiky nature of the current entry. If in 12 or 24 hours the rate stays this high it might be something to go ape about, but for now it looks like the same anomaly as the 7/9 spike that didn't result from any massive new mining cluster coming online.
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July 13, 2011, 10:11:25 PM
 #29

http://hardforum.com/showthread.php?t=1622219 was posted today, by the look of the replies quite a few people there didn't know about bitcoins before. If any forum has the hardware to make an increase like that it would be them.

Difficulty isn't staying put -- that's a pipe dream.

Mark my words.

Look at how many people are sitting on *prime mining hardware* who still are just finding out about Bitcoin.

One guy said:

"Even if I can get 1/2 my new PC paid off in the space of 1 year, I'm in!"

...

So until THAT becomes not true any longer, expect more and more miners -- and difficulty.

Moral of the story: Don't run your income calculations with "0 difficulty increases" factored in -- you'll be in for disappointment.

Moral of the story: Don't estimate more than 1 1/2 - 2 months out.

TL;DR (for all you young'uns) -- If the payoff period is greater than 60 days, RUN AWAY. Or at least be patient for a better deal. I'm serious.
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July 13, 2011, 10:19:41 PM
 #30

Difficulty isn't staying put -- that's a pipe dream.

Mark my words.

Look at how many people are sitting on *prime mining hardware* who still are just finding out about Bitcoin.

One guy said:

"Even if I can get 1/2 my new PC paid off in the space of 1 year, I'm in!"

...

So until THAT becomes not true any longer, expect more and more miners -- and difficulty.

Exactly.  That's why I've always held the opinion that difficulty does not follow price.  Rather, difficulty follows awareness.

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July 13, 2011, 10:29:56 PM
 #31

Still not having a "huge" impact as of yet.  Seems like things always speed up towards the end of a block cycle.

[18:15] <@gribble> Current Blocks: 136150 | Current Difficulty: 1563027.9961162 | Next Difficulty At Block: 137087 | Next Difficulty In: 937 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 3 hours, 3 minutes, and 25 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1659938.08690295

Looks like we might be in store for more of a difficulty bump than last round.  So it goes.

Then again, difficulty rate of increase seems to have slowed as compared to the last several blocks.  EG., it's not growing at 50% and more.

So long as it pays for the electricity and maybe a bit more, I think people will do it.  That and so long as it remains semi-viable (eg., you can turn it into $ without too much difficulty).  Would be nice to see more vendors getting involved.

I doubt many of us who are already "in" will be getting "out" anytime soon.

So find a seat and enjoy the ride.

All that being said, I am curious why network hash seems to rise as we approach the end a 2016 block round.

"... and the geeks shall inherit the earth."
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July 13, 2011, 10:38:16 PM
 #32

All that being said, I am curious why network hash seems to rise as we approach the end a 2016 block round.

Probably people finally getting their orders delivered (thanks NewEgg!) combined with part-time miners giving it one last go before the next difficulty bump.

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July 13, 2011, 10:44:13 PM
 #33

Still not having a "huge" impact as of yet.  Seems like things always speed up towards the end of a block cycle.

[18:15] <@gribble> Current Blocks: 136150 | Current Difficulty: 1563027.9961162 | Next Difficulty At Block: 137087 | Next Difficulty In: 937 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 3 hours, 3 minutes, and 25 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1659938.08690295

Looks like we might be in store for more of a difficulty bump than last round.  So it goes.

Then again, difficulty rate of increase seems to have slowed as compared to the last several blocks.  EG., it's not growing at 50% and more.

So long as it pays for the electricity and maybe a bit more, I think people will do it.  That and so long as it remains semi-viable (eg., you can turn it into $ without too much difficulty).  Would be nice to see more vendors getting involved.

I doubt many of us who are already "in" will be getting "out" anytime soon.

So find a seat and enjoy the ride.

All that being said, I am curious why network hash seems to rise as we approach the end a 2016 block round.

Not sure what algorithm gribble uses, but it's still too early to tell, we're about half way through the round, there have been a few spikes way above average hashrate, and a few days below. If this little blip continues (and my guess is it will not) we might see a larger bump than last time, but most likely not. If you notice gribbles current estimate is only 6%, which is far lower than last round (and likely not accurate, though it'd be nice).
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July 13, 2011, 10:47:43 PM
 #34

I doubt many of us who are already "in" will be getting "out" anytime soon.

I'm hoping the little guys like us can weather the storm at any difficulty.  I know I'd probably mine for BTC at a loss to "be a part of something" that I am excited about.  The question is, when will the big farms close up shop?

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July 13, 2011, 10:49:55 PM
 #35

WTF people. You can see yourselves in the posted graph that those swings in estimated hashrates happen all the time! At elast wait until the 3 day moving average takes off and then start freaking out.

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July 13, 2011, 10:52:19 PM
 #36

http://hardforum.com/showthread.php?t=1622219 was posted today, by the look of the replies quite a few people there didn't know about bitcoins before. If any forum has the hardware to make an increase like that it would be them.

now that's the last thing bitcoin needs. even more geeks.


first page, last post.. some idiot posting about 500Mhash/s on a 5870. and his 6970 apparently gets 460+Mhash/s at 950MHz.

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July 13, 2011, 10:54:58 PM
 #37

Miners that focus on income based on current trading prices should be focusing on building the btc economy - win win.

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July 13, 2011, 11:08:44 PM
 #38

I've always been under the impression that the 'Network Total' field on BitcoinCharts.com was generated from a moving average of blocks solved per hour.  Meaning a huge spurt of pools or miners getting lucky and solving a bunch of blocks for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' field quite a bit.

Example: 8-9 blocks were being solved per hour for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' hash by 25%-50% even though 'actual' would be much lower.

Cheers,
Kermee

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July 13, 2011, 11:13:15 PM
 #39

I've always been under the impression that the 'Network Total' field on BitcoinCharts.com was generated from a moving average of blocks solved per hour.  Meaning a huge spurt of pools or miners getting lucky and solving a bunch of blocks for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' field quite a bit.

Example: 8-9 blocks were being solved per hour for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' hash by 25%-50% even though 'actual' would be much lower.

Cheers,
Kermee

That is correct, this is why if you refresh bitcoincharts every 30 minutes or so you will see the hashrate dropping. Not because people are dropping out, but simply because as the spurt gets dropped by the moving average, the apparent hash rate is calculated lower. From 16THash to 15THash to 14.5THash since I began reading this thread. We'll have to wait and see where it lands however.
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July 14, 2011, 01:00:24 AM
 #40

I doubt many of us who are already "in" will be getting "out" anytime soon.

I'm hoping the little guys like us can weather the storm at any difficulty.  I know I'd probably mine for BTC at a loss to "be a part of something" that I am excited about.  The question is, when will the big farms close up shop?

Now that's a refreshing spirit up in here. 

+1

"... and the geeks shall inherit the earth."
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