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Author Topic: Why has the network jumper to 14 terahashes?  (Read 4877 times)
mackminer
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July 13, 2011, 02:21:39 PM
 #1

The only reason I can think is that Cisco analysis published on their blog?

Any other reason do you think?- I hope it goes down again. I saw it jump up to that at the last difficulty level and it's been hovering around 11 since consistently. 

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skyhigh
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July 13, 2011, 02:27:10 PM
 #2

It called variance. Pools were lucky and solved 10 extra blocks in the last 24 hours. Network is still at 11.5 Th, expected to hit 12 Th in a week.
mackminer
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July 13, 2011, 03:07:28 PM
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It called variance. Pools were lucky and solved 10 extra blocks in the last 24 hours. Network is still at 11.5 Th, expected to hit 12 Th in a week.

Aaaah ok where can you check that the pools solved those extra blocks.

Also could you let me know where you were able to gather your expectation from? I would like to be able to estimate as well.

Thanks a mill.

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marvinmartian
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July 13, 2011, 03:14:58 PM
 #4

Gribble is still showing us more or less on par to where we've been for this round:

[11:13] <@gribble> Current Blocks: 136089 | Current Difficulty: 1563027.9961162 | Next Difficulty At Block: 137087 | Next Difficulty In: 998 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 15 hours, 24 minutes, and 10 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1631293.15723098

There was a sight jump the last day or two but nothing awful imho.

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Graet
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July 13, 2011, 03:52:25 PM
 #5

"Why has the network jumper to 14 terahashes?"

well i see ppl still discovering BTC daily and joining thier Mhash and Ghahs/s to the network

there are even still ppl buying hardware to mine on. Depending on thier circumstances it could still be viable to mine. 

despite the in creasing difficulty I dont expect the hashrate to drop in the neaar future Smiley
others will have different opinions, I can only go on what i see daily at my pool and around the forums /netwrok Smiley

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d.james
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July 13, 2011, 05:24:42 PM
 #6

*****PANIC********
it's at 15G now
RUN!!

You can not roll a BitCoin, but you can rollback some. Cheesy
Roll me back: 1NxMkvbYn8o7kKCWPsnWR4FDvH7L9TJqGG
Mousepotato
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July 13, 2011, 05:28:28 PM
 #7

It called variance. Pools were lucky and solved 10 extra blocks in the last 24 hours. Network is still at 11.5 Th, expected to hit 12 Th in a week.
If we were steadily chugging along at ~150 blocks/day, an extra 10 isn't going to cause the network to jump nearly 30% from variance.

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imperi
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July 13, 2011, 05:35:15 PM
 #8

It's the Moore's law of Bitcoin. I don't think price matters, nothing will stop this law.
skyhigh
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July 13, 2011, 05:37:46 PM
 #9

Mousepotato agreed.

but where do you see this 30% jump in the network, maybe I'm missing something.
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July 13, 2011, 05:41:24 PM
 #10

Mousepotato agreed.

but where do you see this 30% jump in the network, maybe I'm missing something.

Last I looked (yesterday) it was around 11.8 TH/s.  Right now it's at about 15 TH/s.  It could be a combination of my bad memory and even worse math skills, but I guesstimate that's close to a 30%  jump.

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skyhigh
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July 13, 2011, 05:43:10 PM
 #11

nevermind, you guys are probably watching bitcoincharts.com

anyone ever questioned how that number is calculated at their site?  I know their formula is wrong or at least misleading. That number will show a big drop in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Network is still at 11.5 Th, expected to hit 12 Th in a week.
AngelusWebDesign
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July 13, 2011, 05:43:45 PM
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I have a hard time believe it's just variance/luck. It was a *very large* spike.

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July 13, 2011, 05:50:54 PM
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nevermind, you guys are probably watching bitcoincharts.com

anyone ever questioned how that number is calculated at their site?  I know their formula is wrong or at least misleading. That number will show a big drop in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Network is still at 11.5 Th, expected to hit 12 Th in a week.

Yeah, I was referring to Bitcoincharts.  I've always had my doubts about the accuracy of the network numbers (the exchange rate numbers are pretty accurate though) since they've often been off by a TH or two with regard to Deepbit's hash power. 

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KarlSpaat
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July 13, 2011, 07:21:38 PM
 #14

Botnets?
shivansps
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July 13, 2011, 07:23:45 PM
 #15

its well over 16thash now, dot bit is showing a "instant" difficulty of 2.2xx.xxx, this does not seems to be a peak.

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Strongbow
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July 13, 2011, 07:47:05 PM
 #16

There's no way this increase is variance, some serious hardware is coming online...
AngelusWebDesign
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July 13, 2011, 07:47:21 PM
 #17

I think it's too big of a swing to be simple "luck".

What is going on? Did some large cluster just go online?

1 or 2 Thash is a lot of 5830's.
AngelusWebDesign
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July 13, 2011, 07:49:44 PM
 #18

And I don't think the SIPA charts are pulling figures out of thin air, either. Their figures have matched up quite well with eventual difficulty increases.

You can see there's an obvious change between the right-hand side of the chart (today) and a little bit to the left of it, where it's often "below the line".

Ain't nobody THAT lucky!

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July 13, 2011, 07:50:11 PM
 #19

Mining isn't as unprofitable as some people seem to claim.

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Maxim Gladkov
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July 13, 2011, 07:52:38 PM
 #20

I think we have a hidden "big player" in bitcoin mining... It has a lot of GH/s power and is turning it on just before difficulty increase/decrease to make mining more unprofitable. That way it knocks out small miners and will free its mining process in the future.

What do you mean about this?

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