I just got into BitCoin a few days ago.
I'm interested in buying some BitCoins to redistribute among a group of friends at a slightly higher rate.
Do you think we are about to see a rally?
In the long-term, I bet strongly there will be a huge rally for the bitcoin. The problem is that the bitcoin is not still a 1 million market cap. game with thousands of geeky persons involved, it's already a 100 million market cap. game with tens of thousands of person involved. the price have rise too fast to be sunstainable at such a rate.
The distribution among the early adopters of bitcoin is high in the extent of inequality. I don't see this is some moral problem, but only a trading problem. for some adopters, there assets has appreciated for 3000 fold now. so, some of them has showed the signs of willing of selling some of the bitcoin they have. First, they are human beings and have/want to have some fiat money for daily use nowadays; Second, even they sold 10k bitcoins, considering the number of bitcoin they have and the potential of bitcoin, it will not hurt them much to sell at the right stage. I guess the total number of those big holders want to sell now is around 10k - 100k.
and lots of the new adopters in the last two months, lots of them are weak believers, they were somehow scared by the market volatility. they don't have true believe in the bitcoin. It's time consuming to have them lost patient and hope to sell the bitcoin.
the major wave of media penetration has past. the speed of growth of new adopters are somehow slow down compared with last two month, until several critical improvement in the infrastructure of the bitcoin payment system.
For these pressures, the bitcoin market won't see a major rally in the coming days or weeks. So I think the best strategy is to suggest your friend to have a total investment number in mind, and invest the money in a dollar averaging manner. Suppose that your friend want invest in $ 2000, they just divide them into $200, and buy in bitcoin for ten times. every purchase should be made when an adjustment happened, like what we recently see from 15.5 to 14.
When the doubters out, some improvement of the payment system made, a new stage of rally begins.