KNC Countdown for Shipment

[-Redacted-]

US may well be end of October, due to all the problems getting the 200th mine up, but punin made comments that imply EU October units could start shipping shortly after October 1st, or first couple of weeks in October at the worst.

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[af_newbie]

And if punin isn't joking about being ready to start shipping October orders shortly after the frist of October, it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks, difficulty increase wise.  It may be BF and KNC...

I missed that. Buzzdave's last thing seemed to imply the end of october. Ahh, the chinese curse

Dave has another 100TH mine to build so he will probably be late (I hope it is not the case).  August orders were pushed aside because building 100TH was a priority.  We're suppose to be paid/credited for the delay but so far I have not seen anything.  As for Octobers orders, he might surprise us this time, but then again, they already tasted the power of 50TH+ doing solo, so they might want to add 100TH+ to the current setup.

There is a "hashing war" going on right now.  BFL is doing its best to ship all of their gen1 products before they become completely unusable.
Once all bitfuries and bfls are out, that KNC miner might not be as hot as when you bought it.

The good thing is that by spring of next year, it will be all over.  Plenty of in-stock 28nm products (or equivalent) and 12 months ROI.  Just like GPUs.

That is why buying pre-orders (regardless of specs) does not make any sense.  Network diff might be 2PH, or it might be 200PH 3 months from now.

 

[Biomech]

And if punin isn't joking about being ready to start shipping October orders shortly after the frist of October, it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks, difficulty increase wise.  It may be BF and KNC...

I missed that. Buzzdave's last thing seemed to imply the end of october. Ahh, the chinese curse

Dave has another 100TH mine to build so he will probably be late (I hope it is not the case).  August orders were pushed aside because building 100TH was a priority.  We're suppose to be paid/credited for the delay but so far I have not seen anything.  As for Octobers orders, he might surprise us this time, but then again, they already tasted the power of 50TH+ doing solo, so they might want to add 100TH+ to the current setup.

There is a "hashing war" going on right now.  BFL is doing its best to ship all of their gen1 products before they become completely unusable.
Once all bitfuries and bfls are out, that KNC miner might not be as hot as when you bought it.

The good thing is that by spring of next year, it will be all over.  Plenty of in-stock 28nm products (or equivalent) and 12 months ROI.  Just like GPUs.

That is why buying pre-orders (regardless of specs) does not make any sense.  Network diff might be 2PH, or it might be 200PH 3 months from now.

 

Ya know, I think this is the first time I've seen this. I'm a little stunned. Your post makes sense and I largely agree with you. Two things I didn't think would ever happen.

The pre-order game made sense a few months ago, if you could get in on the first wave. At this point, wait and see coupled with only buy "in hand" hardware seems a wiser game.

[frankenmint]

And if punin isn't joking about being ready to start shipping October orders shortly after the frist of October, it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks, difficulty increase wise.  It may be BF and KNC...

I missed that. Buzzdave's last thing seemed to imply the end of october. Ahh, the chinese curse

Dave has another 100TH mine to build so he will probably be late (I hope it is not the case).  August orders were pushed aside because building 100TH was a priority.  We're suppose to be paid/credited for the delay but so far I have not seen anything.  As for Octobers orders, he might surprise us this time, but then again, they already tasted the power of 50TH+ doing solo, so they might want to add 100TH+ to the current setup.

There is a "hashing war" going on right now.  BFL is doing its best to ship all of their gen1 products before they become completely unusable.
Once all bitfuries and bfls are out, that KNC miner might not be as hot as when you bought it.

The good thing is that by spring of next year, it will be all over.  Plenty of in-stock 28nm products (or equivalent) and 12 months ROI.  Just like GPUs.

That is why buying pre-orders (regardless of specs) does not make any sense.  Network diff might be 2PH, or it might be 200PH 3 months from now.

 

Ya know, I think this is the first time I've seen this. I'm a little stunned. Your post makes sense and I largely agree with you. Two things I didn't think would ever happen.

The pre-order game made sense a few months ago, if you could get in on the first wave. At this point, wait and see coupled with only buy "in hand" hardware seems a wiser game.

I couldnt disagree more - the buy in hand hardware and you are paying 2-10x what you should as there is a higher demand than supply for asics hardware.

[Biomech]

And if punin isn't joking about being ready to start shipping October orders shortly after the frist of October, it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks, difficulty increase wise.  It may be BF and KNC...

I missed that. Buzzdave's last thing seemed to imply the end of october. Ahh, the chinese curse

Dave has another 100TH mine to build so he will probably be late (I hope it is not the case).  August orders were pushed aside because building 100TH was a priority.  We're suppose to be paid/credited for the delay but so far I have not seen anything.  As for Octobers orders, he might surprise us this time, but then again, they already tasted the power of 50TH+ doing solo, so they might want to add 100TH+ to the current setup.

There is a "hashing war" going on right now.  BFL is doing its best to ship all of their gen1 products before they become completely unusable.
Once all bitfuries and bfls are out, that KNC miner might not be as hot as when you bought it.

The good thing is that by spring of next year, it will be all over.  Plenty of in-stock 28nm products (or equivalent) and 12 months ROI.  Just like GPUs.

That is why buying pre-orders (regardless of specs) does not make any sense.  Network diff might be 2PH, or it might be 200PH 3 months from now.

 

Ya know, I think this is the first time I've seen this. I'm a little stunned. Your post makes sense and I largely agree with you. Two things I didn't think would ever happen.

The pre-order game made sense a few months ago, if you could get in on the first wave. At this point, wait and see coupled with only buy "in hand" hardware seems a wiser game.

I couldnt disagree more - the buy in hand hardware and you are paying 2-10x what you should as there is a higher demand than supply for asics hardware.

Right now this is true, but it's also true that right now the diff is rising exponentially. The costs, after the NRE's are recovered, will come down to what the market will bear for long term returns. If you have the cash, right now, it might be worth it to preorder. I personally think that window is past until the next generation of chips.

This doesn't make your argument invalid. This is one where there are few clear cut answers. I personally think that as time goes by and bitcoin continues to gain traction, the big boys will get in on the asic game, or even some new sort of application that makes it work. The current race is against power consumption, as it's now obvious that they can and will make seriously scary amounts of calculation.

You seem to be pretty mature, but unfortunately that's no indicator of age anymore. So, if you do remember this, it's all good, and if not? Well.

In 1979 IBM announced the original IBM PC. I can't recall the price, but it was way above what most other computer vendors were offering. Just like THIS race, there were dozens of viable competitors, and IBM was seen as a "has been" even though they had developed a great deal of the tech that went into the nascent personal computer revolution. Most of us back then would likely have bet on Apple as the dominant one, since the Apple ][ and ][ + were on the market and 'only' about a thousand dollars for a 64k computer. The PC generated a lot of buzz because it was supposed to ship with 128k expandable to 256k and have an optional hard drive. but it was like three times the price.

We were wrong. The open architecture made up for all it's other shortcomings and by 1982 if a computer wasn't "IBM PC compatible" it was an also ran. The price had dropped by over 1/2 at that point, due to advances in photolithography and improved efficiencies in hardware production, and straight up demand.

I see the same thing happening with bitcoin. I think that in a year's time there will be petahash units at reasonable prices for the hobbyist, and that the "pre order" game will be largely done. I also think the early adopters will not get screwed the way some of them think they will, as the difficulty would have to rise exponentially for a couple of years before the machines became unprofitable. Those that think they have to make a positive ROI in the first couple of months are either mathematically challenged or just plain greedy. The latter I can at least get my head around, the former requires a lack of real world knowledge. Exponential growth on anything from bacteria to hashrate is an unsustainable paradigm. It WILL level off. Then, it will likely grow in spikes, just like memory devices and computational power has been in the computer industry at large.

Also, due to it's deflationary nature, there are really only two possible long term outcomes for bitcoin. It will go into the dustbin of history, or it's value will increase with increasing adoption. There really isn't a third road here. If you are only aiming for short term gains (this isn't really aimed at You, just a general statement) then you are basically betting that bitcoin will fail. In which case, why buy the machines at any price? If you're betting long term, as I am, you have to weigh the costs RIGHT NOW vs. waiting until production and competition ramp up. That is indeed time sensitive, and for my coin, right now watch and wait makes more sense.

[frankenmint]

ok it was fun....but BF needs to GTFO...this says KNC not BF.

[Biomech]

ok it was fun....but BF needs to GTFO...this says KNC not BF.

Noted. I get tired of the comparison myself. While I try to be a realist, I rather like KnC.

[AussieHash]

It is now Sunday afternoon Stockholm time.

If they had a Jupiter on hand to demonstrate, BTCorama (who is browsing the forum now) or KnC would have posted by now

[klintay]

the cat is out of the bag...Sam has been telling all sorts of people that they will ship SECOND week in October...

[AussieHash]

the cat is out of the bag...Sam has been telling all sorts of people that they will ship SECOND week in October...

Sam hasn't replied to emails for days, so what's your source ?

[Xialla]

the cat is out of the bag...Sam has been telling all sorts of people that they will ship SECOND week in October...

lol, joking?.)

[klintay]

Ok, it is hearsay and rumor but i read it in a post here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303037.0

I spoke with Sam today, who was absolutely certain that all orders will be ready by 15th October ad he will be able to give me at least a 48h notice of when they will be ready to collect.

Also read it another thread from someone else but can't remember which one. Though this can be interpreted as you will i guess. October 1st must be off now though right?

[BBQKorv]

Not a single demonstration of a working device and shipping is supposed to start in less than 24 hours. There must be a delay of some sort.

[shapemaker]

Not a single demonstration of a working device and shipping is supposed to start in less than 24 hours. There must be a delay of some sort.

Prepare to be YiFucked

[btc_uzr]

September 30th 1 a.m. in Stockholm now..let's see what today's news will be (if there are any)

[shiunsai]

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-40

[DPoS]

Not a single demonstration of a working device and shipping is supposed to start in less than 24 hours. There must be a delay of some sort.

Prepare to be YiFucked

so many experts!!!  you soo smarty yes?

[amer]

I see the same thing happening with bitcoin. I think that in a year's time there will be petahash units at reasonable prices for the hobbyist, and that the "pre order" game will be largely done. I also think the early adopters will not get screwed the way some of them think they will, as the difficulty would have to rise exponentially for a couple of years before the machines became unprofitable. Those that think they have to make a positive ROI in the first couple of months are either mathematically challenged or just plain greedy. The latter I can at least get my head around, the former requires a lack of real world knowledge. Exponential growth on anything from bacteria to hashrate is an unsustainable paradigm. It WILL level off. Then, it will likely grow in spikes, just like memory devices and computational power has been in the computer industry at large.

I think the level might happen sooner than you imagine. The 28nm chips announced by Hashfast and Cointerra are 400-500GH/s. The next steps are 22nm (like Ivy Bridge) and 14nm (like Intel's Broadwell) which they just announced this month as being an upgrade to their CPU lines in 2014. We've been playing catchup for all of 2013 as ASICs were introduced, but at some point (and I'm just guessing, as I have no industry knowledge, so if I'm totally offbase, someone please fix me) I expect that these startups will start bumping into the plants that produce CPUs and smartphone SoCs, at which point shit is going to get real and the reasons for delay will sound more like "well, we had an order placed, but Samsung kicked us out of the queue".

It's been a meteoric ride so far, but there is no way we see 2000x per-chip increases to 1PH/s in the next year if we're already at 28nm at this point.

[Biomech]

I see the same thing happening with bitcoin. I think that in a year's time there will be petahash units at reasonable prices for the hobbyist, and that the "pre order" game will be largely done. I also think the early adopters will not get screwed the way some of them think they will, as the difficulty would have to rise exponentially for a couple of years before the machines became unprofitable. Those that think they have to make a positive ROI in the first couple of months are either mathematically challenged or just plain greedy. The latter I can at least get my head around, the former requires a lack of real world knowledge. Exponential growth on anything from bacteria to hashrate is an unsustainable paradigm. It WILL level off. Then, it will likely grow in spikes, just like memory devices and computational power has been in the computer industry at large.

I think the level might happen sooner than you imagine. The 28nm chips announced by Hashfast and Cointerra are 400-500GH/s. The next steps are 22nm (like Ivy Bridge) and 14nm (like Intel's Broadwell) which they just announced this month as being an upgrade to their CPU lines in 2014. We've been playing catchup for all of 2013 as ASICs were introduced, but at some point (and I'm just guessing, as I have no industry knowledge, so if I'm totally offbase, someone please fix me) I expect that these startups will start bumping into the plants that produce CPUs and smartphone SoCs, at which point shit is going to get real and the reasons for delay will sound more like "well, we had an order placed, but Samsung kicked us out of the queue".

It's been a meteoric ride so far, but there is no way we see 2000x per-chip increases to 1PH/s in the next year if we're already at 28nm at this point.

It doesn't have to be per chip. The prices will come down. At first, there are two major price factors driving the consumer price on a new silicon device. The first, lower one, is NRE. The second is demand, and that can be (currently is) the main driving factor. If you are a device vendor, and you can sell it at 1000x cost, you'd be a fool not to. Once the competition starts either outperforming or outpricing you, you need to reevaluate your pricing. So, if you're smart, you lower your prices in increments on the chip that has already been masked out, engineered and produced. The per wafer cost after NRE isn't that much. They can squeese a lot of life out of that by simply offering cheaper prices and/or more chips in the devices. Yeah, there gets to be power issues after a while, but they buy time that way. This also gives them more time to optimise the next gen design, which will probably be more power efficient, less redundant, and a higher hashrate. Given the humongous physical size of KnC's chip, for example, I would guess that they went for at least 10x redundancy in their design just to make sure they made their deadlines. Shouldn't be too hard for them, now that they can concentrate more on engineering precision and less on setting records, to optimize that design rather severely.

Also, as you mentioned, there are smaller processes. Some online, some just starting. In the "race for the bottom" we haven't yet hit the bottom of photolithography, though it's getting close. Plus, most if not all of the necessary conditions to develop nanomachines now exist, so it's quite likely that by the time photolithography hits it's theoretical limits, there will be a better, cheaper alternative. The 'state of the art' is always a moving target in electronics.

If you had told me in 1981 that just 3 decades later I would be typing on an obsolete computer that is more powerful than the supercomputers of the early 80's, I would have laughed in your face and called you an idiot. I would have been wrong.

Sure, the current ASIC designs coming to market are at a very small feature size, but they are still first gen devices. They are not as optimal as they can be. Right now, getting to market is more important to the manufacturers than getting a truly optimal design. I think that you will see a lot of scales of efficiency within the 28nm market long before it goes to a smaller die size. Actual timeline is another matter. But I am standing by a year to two years IF bitcoin starts going seriously mainstream before the big boys care to touch it. I think companies like Cointerra and KnC think so too, and they are positioning themselves to be partners rather than roadblocks when that day comes.

I don't think BFL's people are smart enough for that, and I suspect they will fall into the "also ran" category in the fairly short term.